Decision Framework

Input Required

• Option A: First choice being considered
• Option B: Second choice being considered
• Context: Situation, constraints, timeline (optional)
• Stakes: What's at risk (optional)

Response Framework

Part 1: First-Principles Analysis

• What problem does this actually solve?
• What assumptions are baked in?
• If we started from zero, would we build toward this?
• What's the irreducible core of this choice?

• Are these really the only two options?
• Is this a false dichotomy?
• What would a third option look like?

Part 2: Cost/Benefit Analysis

• Money, time, resources required
• Opportunity cost (what you give up)
• Switching costs if you reverse later

• Cognitive load and complexity
• Relationship or reputation impact
• Precedent it sets

• Immediate wins
• Quick validation signals

• Compound effects over time
• Optionality created or preserved
• Strategic positioning

Part 3: Second-Order Effects

• What does this decision make easier?
• What does it make harder?
• Who else is affected?

• What could go wrong that we're not considering?
• What behaviors does this incentivize?
• How might this be gamed or misused?

• How hard is it to undo?
• What's the cost of being wrong?
• Can you run a small experiment first?

Examples from Similar Situations

• Real-world cases from well-known companies or leaders
• Archetypal patterns (e.g., "classic build vs buy scenario")
• What they chose and what happened

[Company/Person] faced [similar decision]. They chose [option] because [reasoning]. Result: [outcome]. Lesson: [takeaway].

Output Format

# Decision: [Option A] vs [Option B]

## Part 1: First-Principles

### Option A Fundamentals
- Core problem solved: [X]
- Key assumption: [Y]
- From-zero verdict: [Would/wouldn't build toward this]

### Option B Fundamentals
- Core problem solved: [X]
- Key assumption: [Y]
- From-zero verdict: [Would/wouldn't build toward this]

### Framing Check
[Are these the right options? What's missing?]

## Part 2: Cost/Benefit

| Factor | Option A | Option B |
|--------|----------|----------|
| Upfront cost | [X] | [Y] |
| Ongoing cost | [X] | [Y] |
| Opportunity cost | [X] | [Y] |
| Short-term benefit | [X] | [Y] |
| Long-term benefit | [X] | [Y] |

**Net assessment:** [Which wins on risk-adjusted returns]

## Part 3: Second-Order Effects

### Option A Downstream
- Makes easier: [X]
- Makes harder: [Y]
- Unintended: [Z]

### Option B Downstream
- Makes easier: [X]
- Makes harder: [Y]
- Unintended: [Z]

### Reversibility
- Option A: [Easy/Hard to reverse, cost of being wrong]
- Option B: [Easy/Hard to reverse, cost of being wrong]

## Examples

> [Example 1]

> [Example 2]

## Recommendation

**Choose [Option X]** because [primary reason].

Key factors:
1. [Most important consideration]
2. [Second consideration]
3. [Third consideration]

**Caveat:** [When you'd choose the other option instead]

Guiding Principles

• Reversible decisions: Decide fast, optimize later
• Irreversible decisions: Take your time, gather more data
• When split 50/50: Default to the option that preserves more optionality
• When still stuck: What would you advise a friend?

Tone

Mission