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longbridge-ark-analysis

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English
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Chinese

longbridge-ark-analysis

longbridge-ark-analysis

Prompt-only ARK-inspired diagnostic for a single ticker. Runs a suitability gate (must be a disruptive-innovation name), then builds TAM, a Wright's-Law cost-curve note, and a three-scenario 5-year target price. Closes with a mandatory data-source appendix whose final row is a one-line reconciliation summary.
Response language: detect the user's input language (Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English) and render the entire report — every section heading, label, scenario write-up, narrative, education block, appendix row, reconciliation summary, and disclaimer — in that one language. Do not mix languages within a single output. The output template in 
references/output.md
is shown in English for reference; translate it as a whole into the user's language using the label-translation lookup in that file. The error / source tables inside this SKILL.md remain 3-column because they document what the skill says under each language — that 3-column form is for the skill's reference docs, not for the user-facing report.
Independence statement (mandatory): this skill is an independent implementation inspired by ARK Invest's publicly described methodology. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or representative of ARK Invest or Cathie Wood's actual views or positions. The independence statement must appear in the disclaimer of every output.
仅基于Prompt、受ARK启发的单只股票诊断工具。先进行适配性校验（必须属于颠覆式创新企业），随后构建TAM、Wright's Law成本曲线说明及三种情景下的5年目标价。报告结尾必须附上数据源附录，最后一行为单行勾稽校验总结。
响应语言：检测用户输入语言（简体中文/繁体中文/英文），并将整个报告——包括所有章节标题、标签、情景描述、叙述内容、科普模块、附录行、勾稽校验总结及免责声明——统一使用该语言呈现。单份输出中不得混合多种语言。
references/output.md
中的输出模板以英文展示仅供参考，需使用该文件中的标签对照表将其完整翻译为用户使用的语言。本SKILL.md中的错误/来源表格保持三列格式，因为它们记录了该工具在不同语言下的表述——这种三列格式仅用于工具的参考文档，而非面向用户的报告。
独立声明（必填）：本工具是受ARK Invest公开描述的方法论启发的独立实现。它与ARK Invest或Cathie Wood的实际观点或立场无关，也未获得其关联、认可或代表其立场。独立声明必须出现在每份输出的免责声明中。

When to use

使用场景

  • "用木头姐的方法分析 TSLA" / "用木頭姐的方法分析 TSLA" / "analyze TSLA with the ARK framework"
  • "ARK 怎么看 NVDA" / "ARK 怎麼看 NVDA" / "how does ARK see NVDA"
  • "PLTR 的颠覆式创新逻辑成立吗" / "PLTR 的顛覆式創新邏輯成立嗎" / "is PLTR a real disruptive-innovation story"
  • "帮我算一下 TSLA 5 年的 bull base bear 目标价" / "算一下 TSLA 5 年的 bull base bear 目標價" / "build a 5-year bull/base/bear target on TSLA"
  • "AMZN 属于 ARK 的哪个平台" / "AMZN 屬於 ARK 的哪個平台" / "which ARK platform is AMZN in"
  • "建行用 ARK 怎么看" / "建行用 ARK 怎麼看" / "would the ARK framework work on CCB" (→ reject + recommend alternative)
For Buffett-style moat analysis → 
longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer
. For Graham cigar-butt → 
longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
. For pure DCF → 
longbridge-dcf
. For peer benchmarking → 
longbridge-peer-comparison
.
  • "用木头姐的方法分析 TSLA" / "用木頭姐的方法分析 TSLA" / "analyze TSLA with the ARK framework"
  • "ARK 怎么看 NVDA" / "ARK 怎麼看 NVDA" / "how does ARK see NVDA"
  • "PLTR 的颠覆式创新逻辑成立吗" / "PLTR 的顛覆式創新邏輯成立嗎" / "is PLTR a real disruptive-innovation story"
  • "帮我算一下 TSLA 5 年的 bull base bear 目标价" / "算一下 TSLA 5 年的 bull base bear 目標價" / "build a 5-year bull/base/bear target on TSLA"
  • "AMZN 属于 ARK 的哪个平台" / "AMZN 屬於 ARK 的哪個平台" / "which ARK platform is AMZN in"
  • "建行用 ARK 怎么看" / "建行用 ARK 怎麼看" / "would the ARK framework work on CCB" (→ 拒绝并推荐替代方法)
如需巴菲特风格护城河分析，请使用
longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer
；如需格雷厄姆雪茄烟蒂分析，请使用
longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
；如需纯DCF分析，请使用
longbridge-dcf
；如需同业对标分析，请使用
longbridge-peer-comparison
。

Cognitive frame (do not skip)

认知框架（不可跳过）

ARK's reference is 5-year ownership of disruptive-innovation companies, with three-scenario thinking around a TAM × market-share × margin × multiple terminal value, discounted back. Two things every output must surface:
  1. Suitability is a gate, not a soft preference. If the company is not in one of ARK's five innovation platforms (Artificial Intelligence · Robotics & Autonomous Mobility · Energy Storage & EV Adoption · Multiomic Sequencing & AI Drug Discovery · Public Blockchains & Digital Assets — see 
    references/scoring.md
    §Suitability for the value-chain decomposition into upstream / core / downstream / adjacent tiers, and the convergence themes), reject and recommend an alternative method — do not produce a "for reference" ARK report on a bank, oil major, or consumer staple. A company qualifies if its revenue depends materially on any tier of a platform (upstream / core / downstream / adjacent) — not only on being the platform's headline name.
  2. 5-year predictions are wide ranges, not point estimates. TAM and market share are deeply uncertain. The output always shows three scenarios (Bull / Base / Bear) with explicit assumptions; never collapse them to a single confident number, and never present the weighted target price as a forecast — call it a model-derived expectation.
Two failure modes the user must be able to distinguish:
  • "Right platform, wrong company" → platform fit strong but innovation revenue < 20% or no quantified management vision → ❌ reject; recommend a method that fits the actual revenue mix.
  • "Right company, framework limit" → fits the platform but pre-revenue / no comparable history → ❌ reject (data-basis insufficient); recommend an early-stage framework.
ARK的核心逻辑是持有颠覆式创新企业5年，围绕TAM×市场份额×利润率×终端估值倍数计算终端价值并折现。每份输出必须体现两点：
  1. 适配性是硬性门槛，而非软性偏好。若企业不属于ARK的五大创新平台（人工智能·机器人与自主移动·储能与电动车普及·多组学测序与AI药物研发·公链与数字资产——详见
    references/scoring.md
    中「适配性」章节的价值链分解，分为上游/核心/下游/周边层级及融合主题），则拒绝分析并推荐替代方法——不得针对银行、石油巨头或消费品企业生成「仅供参考」的ARK报告。只要企业收入实质性依赖某一平台的任意层级（上游/核心/下游/周边），即符合资格，而非仅局限于平台头部企业。
  2. 5年预测是宽区间，而非点估计。TAM和市场份额存在极大不确定性。输出必须始终展示三种情景（牛市/基准/熊市）及明确假设；绝不能将其合并为单一确定数值，也不得将加权目标价作为预测结果——应称其为模型推导的预期值。
用户需能区分两种失败模式：
  • 「平台正确，企业错误」 → 平台适配度高，但创新业务收入占比<20%或无量化管理层愿景 → ❌ 拒绝；推荐适配其实际收入结构的方法。
  • 「企业正确，框架受限」 → 符合平台要求，但未盈利/上市不足2个财年/无有效收入历史 → ❌ 拒绝（数据基础不足）；推荐早期企业分析框架。

Workflow

工作流程

  1. Resolve symbol to 
    <CODE>.<MARKET>
    (e.g. 
    TSLA.US
    , 
    00700.HK
    , 
    300750.SZ
    ).
  2. Sector triage:
    • Traditional industry (bank / insurance / oil / real estate / staples / utilities not in energy-transition) → halt with reject reason A — Traditional industry (see 
      references/scoring.md
      §Reject reasons).
    • Being-disrupted incumbent (e.g. ICE auto, fossil-fuel major, legacy media against streaming) → halt with reason B — Being disrupted.
    • Pre-revenue / listed < 2 fiscal years / no meaningful revenue history → halt with reason C — Data basis insufficient.
    • Mature tech with disruption already priced in (e.g. mature consumer electronics supply chain) → halt with reason D — Disruption premium already realised.
  3. Fetch raw data via Longbridge CLI first (parallel where possible). See §CLI. If 
    longbridge
    is missing, fall back to MCP (see §MCP fallback). Use WebSearch only for items genuinely outside Longbridge — TAM figures, Wright's-Law learning rates, qualitative management innovation signals, industry-runway evidence.
  4. Reconciliation gate (勾稽校验) — runs before suitability scoring or any analysis. See §Reconciliation. Two-state outcome:
    • Pass (every check within tolerance) → proceed. A one-line summary of the result still appears at the end of the data-source appendix.
    • Fail (any check exceeds tolerance) → halt all downstream analysis, emit a halt message naming the failing check and gap, still print the data-source appendix and the reconciliation summary describing the failure.
  5. Suitability scoring — score 4 dimensions on 强/中/弱; apply the pass/reject matrix in 
    references/scoring.md
    §Suitability. If reject, emit the reject layout (see 
    references/output.md
    §Reject case) with an alternative-method recommendation matched from 
    references/scoring.md
    §Alternative-method matching. Do not produce a "for reference" ARK analysis on a rejected name.
  6. TAM — three tiers (low / base / high), each tagged with a source priority (权威机构 > 公司自披露 > 学术/智库 > ARK 公开报告 > 估算). Estimation-only TAM must be explicitly labelled 
    估算
    . See 
    references/scoring.md
    §TAM rules.
  7. Wright's-Law note — pick the technology learning rate from the table in 
    references/scoring.md
    §Wright's Law and refresh it via WebSearch against the cited authority (BloombergNEF / IRENA / NHGRI / Epoch AI / ARK). Never use the embedded historical figure as the current value without verification.
  8. Three-scenario 5-year target — Bull / Base / Bear with explicit (TAM, market share, net margin, terminal multiple) for each; weights 25 / 50 / 25 by default; discount rate 15% over 5 years; report each scenario price plus weighted expectation and upside/downside vs current price. See 
    references/scoring.md
    §Scenario.
  9. Risks, action-frame, key observation node — three concrete risks, condition-based action sentences (no buy/sell command), one explicit next observation event/date.
  10. Output the report from 
    references/output.md
    — summary line → suitability → TAM → cost curve → 3 scenarios → risks → action frame → Data Source Appendix (mandatory) ending with the reconciliation summary line. Close with the ARK disclaimer variant matching the user's input language (single-language only — see 
    references/output.md
    §Disclaimer variants).
  1. 解析股票代码为
    <CODE>.<MARKET>
    格式（例如
    TSLA.US
    、
    00700.HK
    、
    300750.SZ
    ）。
  2. 行业筛选:
    • 传统行业（银行/保险/石油/房地产/非能源转型类消费品/公用事业）→ 终止分析，给出拒绝原因A — 传统行业（详见
      references/scoring.md
      中「拒绝原因」章节）。
    • 被颠覆的 incumbent企业（例如燃油车企业、化石能源巨头、流媒体冲击下的传统媒体）→ 终止分析，给出原因B — 处于被颠覆状态。
    • 未盈利/上市不足2个财年/无有效收入历史 → 终止分析，给出原因C — 数据基础不足。
    • 成熟科技企业（颠覆溢价已完全体现，例如成熟消费电子供应链）→ 终止分析，给出原因D — 颠覆溢价已兑现。
  3. 优先通过Longbridge CLI获取原始数据（尽可能并行调用）。详见§CLI。若
    longbridge
    不可用，则 fallback至MCP（详见§MCP fallback）。仅在Longbridge无法获取的内容上使用WebSearch——包括TAM数据、Wright's Law学习率、管理层创新愿景定性信号、行业发展空间证据。
  4. 勾稽校验 gate — 在适配性评分或任何分析之前执行。详见§勾稽校验。结果分为两种状态:
    • 通过（所有校验在容忍范围内） → 继续分析。数据源附录的最后一行仍需展示校验结果的单行总结。
    • 失败（任意校验超出容忍范围） → 终止所有下游分析，输出终止信息并指明失败项及差距，仍需打印数据源附录及描述失败情况的勾稽校验总结。
  5. 适配性评分 — 对四个维度进行强/中/弱评分；应用
    references/scoring.md
    中「适配性」章节的通过/拒绝矩阵。若拒绝，输出拒绝格式（详见
    references/output.md
    中「拒绝案例」章节）并根据
    references/scoring.md
    中「替代方法匹配」章节推荐合适的替代方法。不得针对被拒绝的企业生成「仅供参考」的ARK分析报告。
  6. TAM — 分为三个层级（低/基准/高），每个层级标注来源优先级（权威机构 > 公司自披露 > 学术/智库 > ARK公开报告 > 估算）。仅通过估算得到的TAM必须明确标注
    估算
    。详见
    references/scoring.md
    中「TAM规则」章节。
  7. Wright's Law说明 — 从
    references/scoring.md
    中「Wright's Law」章节的表格中选取技术学习率，并通过WebSearch对照权威来源（BloombergNEF / IRENA / NHGRI / Epoch AI / ARK）更新数据。未经验证，不得直接使用嵌入的历史数据作为当前值。
  8. 三种情景下的5年目标价 — 牛市/基准/熊市情景分别明确给出（TAM、市场份额、净利润率、终端估值倍数）；默认权重为25/50/25；5年折现率为15%；报告每种情景的价格、加权预期值及相对于当前价格的上涨/下跌空间。详见
    references/scoring.md
    中「情景分析」章节。
  9. 风险、行动框架、关键观察节点 — 列出3个具体风险、基于条件的行动语句（不得给出买入/卖出指令）、1个明确的下一个观察事件/日期。
  10. 输出报告，遵循
    references/output.md
    模板：总结行 → 适配性校验 → TAM → 成本曲线 → 三种情景 → 风险 → 行动框架 → 数据源附录（必填），结尾为勾稽校验总结行。最后附上与用户输入语言匹配的ARK免责声明变体（仅使用单一语言——详见
    references/output.md
    中「免责声明变体」章节）。

CLI

CLI

Run 
longbridge <subcommand> --help
to verify exact flags before each call — do not hard-code flag names without verification. Primary calls (run in parallel):
bash
undefined
每次调用前运行
longbridge <subcommand> --help
验证准确参数——不得硬编码参数名称而不验证。主要调用（并行执行）:
bash
undefined

Balance sheet — equity, debt, working capital (for reconciliation only; ARK analysis is forward-looking)

资产负债表——权益、债务、营运资金（仅用于勾稽校验；ARK分析为前瞻性分析）

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report af --format json # last 3–5 annual longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report qf --format json # last 4 quarterly
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report af --format json # 最近3-5份年报 longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report qf --format json # 最近4份季报

Income statement — revenue, segment mix, gross/operating margin, R&D

利润表——收入、分部结构、毛/营业利润率、研发投入

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report af --format json longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report qf --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report af --format json longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report qf --format json

Cash flow — CFO, capex, FCF; for reconciliation and capital-intensity context

现金流量表——经营活动现金流、资本支出、自由现金流；用于勾稽校验及资本密集度分析

longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report af --format json longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report qf --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report af --format json longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report qf --format json

Snapshot: current price, PE, PB, shares outstanding, market cap

快照数据：当前价格、市盈率、市净率、已发行股份数、市值

longbridge quote <SYMBOL> --format json longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge quote <SYMBOL> --format json longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json

Long-window history (used for sanity-checking current vs historical valuation, not as the primary anchor)

长期历史数据（用于校验当前估值与历史估值的合理性，不作为主要分析依据）

longbridge kline <SYMBOL> --period day --count 2500 --format json
longbridge kline <SYMBOL> --period day --count 2500 --format json

Company profile + classification (for platform-fit decision)

公司概况+分类（用于平台适配度判断）

longbridge basicinfo <SYMBOL> --format json longbridge company-profile <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge basicinfo <SYMBOL> --format json longbridge company-profile <SYMBOL> --format json

Recent news + filings — for verifying management innovation vision claims

近期新闻+公告——用于验证管理层创新愿景声明

longbridge news <SYMBOL> --format json longbridge sec-filings <SYMBOL> --format json # US; for HK use the appropriate filings endpoint per --help
undefined
longbridge news <SYMBOL> --format json longbridge sec-filings <SYMBOL> --format json # 美股；港股请根据--help使用对应公告端点
undefined

WebSearch fallback — only for items not available from Longbridge

WebSearch fallback — 仅用于Longbridge无法获取的数据

ARK methodology depends heavily on third-party market-size and learning-rate data. WebSearch is required for TAM and Wright's-Law inputs; it must not be skipped to "save a step".
Missing dataWebSearch query patternAcceptable source authorities
Sector TAM (general tech)
"<market name> market size 2030 Gartner"
"<market name> TAM IDC"
Gartner, IDC, Forrester, McKinsey Global Institute
Clean-energy TAM
"<segment> market size BloombergNEF"
"<segment> 2030 IRENA"
BloombergNEF, IRENA
Battery learning rate
"battery learning rate" BloombergNEF
BloombergNEF EV Outlook (latest annual)
Solar PV learning rate
"solar PV learning rate" IRENA
IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs
DNA sequencing cost trend
"DNA sequencing cost" NHGRI
NHGRI cost database (latest update)
AI compute / inference cost
"AI compute cost" learning rate "Epoch AI"
Epoch AI, MLCommons, Stanford AI Index
Autonomous-driving runway
site:ark-invest.com "autonomous" "Big Ideas"
ARK Big Ideas (yearly, free)
Management innovation vision
"<CEO>" innovation roadmap shareholder letter
Annual report, earnings call, IR deck
Regulatory / policy overhangs
"<sector> regulation <region> 2025"
Government agency, FT, Reuters, WSJ
Every WebSearch-sourced figure must be tagged 
[Source: WebSearch — <publisher>, <report name>, <year>, <url>]
in the appendix; never silently mix it with Longbridge data, never invent a publisher to dress up an internal estimate.
ARK方法论高度依赖第三方市场规模和学习率数据。WebSearch必须用于获取TAM和Wright's Law输入数据；不得为了「简化步骤」而跳过。
缺失数据WebSearch查询模式可接受的权威来源
科技行业TAM（通用）
"<市场名称> market size 2030 Gartner"
"<市场名称> TAM IDC"
Gartner, IDC, Forrester, McKinsey Global Institute
清洁能源TAM
"<细分领域> market size BloombergNEF"
"<细分领域> 2030 IRENA"
BloombergNEF, IRENA
电池学习率
"battery learning rate" BloombergNEF
BloombergNEF EV Outlook（最新年报）
太阳能光伏学习率
"solar PV learning rate" IRENA
IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs
DNA测序成本趋势
"DNA sequencing cost" NHGRI
NHGRI成本数据库（最新更新）
AI计算/推理成本
"AI compute cost" learning rate "Epoch AI"
Epoch AI, MLCommons, Stanford AI Index
自动驾驶发展空间
site:ark-invest.com "autonomous" "Big Ideas"
ARK Big Ideas（年度免费报告）
管理层创新愿景
"<CEO姓名>" innovation roadmap shareholder letter
年报、财报电话会议、投资者关系演示文稿
监管/政策风险
"<行业> regulation <地区> 2025"
政府机构、FT、Reuters、WSJ
所有WebSearch获取的数据必须在附录中标注
[来源: WebSearch — <出版商>, <报告名称>, <年份>, <链接>]
；不得将其与Longbridge数据混为一谈，不得虚构出版商来包装内部估算数据。

Reconciliation (勾稽校验)

勾稽校验

Before any suitability scoring, TAM construction, or target-price calculation, verify the fetched figures are internally consistent. Reconciliation is user-visible in this skill — a one-line summary always appears as the final row of the Data Source Appendix. If a check fails, all downstream analysis halts.
CheckFormulaTolerance
IS↔BS linkNet income(t) ≈ Δ Retained earnings(BS, t) − dividends paid(CF, t)±3%
IS↔CF linkNet income + D&A + impairments + ΔWC ≈ Operating CF±5%
CF↔BS linkΔCash from CF statement = Cash(t) − Cash(t−1) on BS±1%
Revenue segment sumΣ segment revenue ≈ total revenue±2%
Innovation-revenue shareInnovation-related revenue / total revenue used in suitability matches the segment-mix breakdownexact (must match what you display)
R&D ratioR&D expense / total revenue used in suitability matches the IS statementexact
BS — current assets sumCash + AR + Inventory + Other CA ≈ Total current assets±2%
BS — liabilities sumST debt + LT debt + Other liabilities ≈ Total liabilities±2%
Market cap
calc-index
shares × current price ≈ market cap from 
quote
±2%
Period alignmentAll statements from the same fiscal period (or the lag is named)exact
TAM source-taggingEach TAM number has a source row in the appendix (机构 + 报告 + 年份, or 
估算
)		exact
Learning-rate source-taggingWright's-Law learning rate has a source row (BloombergNEF / IRENA / NHGRI / Epoch AI / ARK)exact
Output rules for reconciliation:
  • All pass within tolerance → final appendix row uses the clean-pass variant from 
    references/output.md
    §Reconciliation summary, rendered in the user's input language only.
  • Some residuals within tolerance but material to displayed figures → final appendix row lists each material residual on its own sub-line (which figure it affects).
  • Any check fails > tolerance → halt all analysis; emit the halt message defined in 
    references/output.md
    §Reject case-reconciliation and still print the appendix with the reconciliation summary describing the failure.
在进行适配性评分、构建TAM或计算目标价之前，需验证获取的数据是否内部一致。勾稽校验结果对用户可见——数据源附录的最后一行始终为单行总结。若校验失败，所有下游分析终止。
校验项公式容忍度
利润表↔资产负债表关联净利润(t) ≈ 留存收益变动(资产负债表, t) − 已支付股息(现金流量表, t)±3%
利润表↔现金流量表关联净利润 + 折旧摊销 + 减值损失 + 营运资金变动 ≈ 经营活动现金流±5%
现金流量表↔资产负债表关联现金流量表中现金变动 = 资产负债表中现金(t) − 现金(t−1)±1%
收入分部总和分部收入总和 ≈ 总收入±2%
创新业务收入占比适配性分析中使用的创新业务收入/总收入需与分部结构一致完全匹配（必须与展示的数据一致）
研发投入占比适配性分析中使用的研发费用/总收入需与利润表一致完全匹配
资产负债表——流动资产总和现金 + 应收账款 + 存货 + 其他流动资产 ≈ 流动资产总计±2%
资产负债表——负债总和短期债务 + 长期债务 + 其他负债 ≈ 负债总计±2%
市值
calc-index
股份数 × 当前价格 ≈ 
quote
中的市值		±2%
期间一致性所有报表来自同一财期（若存在滞后需注明）完全匹配
TAM来源标注每个TAM数值在附录中都有来源行（机构+报告+年份，或
估算
）		完全匹配
学习率来源标注Wright's Law学习率在附录中有来源行（BloombergNEF / IRENA / NHGRI / Epoch AI / ARK）完全匹配
勾稽校验输出规则:
  • 所有校验在容忍范围内通过 → 附录最后一行使用
    references/output.md
    中「勾稽校验总结」章节的通过变体，仅使用用户输入语言呈现。
  • 部分差异在容忍范围内但对展示数据有重大影响 → 附录最后一行列出每个重大差异及其影响的数据项。
  • 任意校验超出容忍范围失败 → 终止所有分析；输出
    references/output.md
    中「拒绝案例-勾稽校验」章节定义的终止信息，仍需打印附录及描述失败情况的勾稽校验总结。

Output

输出

ARK-style diagnostic with 7 fixed sections (full template in 
references/output.md
):
  1. Header + one-line conclusion — platform attribution, weighted 5-year target, upside/downside vs current price, the one-line "core bet" sentence.
  2. Suitability check — 4 dimensions (platform fit / innovation revenue / R&D intensity / management vision) each tagged 强 / 中 / 弱, with one-line evidence.
  3. TAM — three tiers with source tags and a plain-language analogy.
  4. Wright's-Law cost curve — technology domain, learning rate with cited authority, current cost position, plain-language interpretation.
  5. 5-year target — three scenarios — Bull / Base / Bear table with explicit (market share, net margin, terminal multiple), weighted expectation, current price, upside/downside.
  6. Main risks — 3 concrete, named risks (not generic boilerplate).
  7. Action frame + key observation node — condition-based sentences only ("if you believe X, then current price implies Y"); never a buy/sell directive. Plus one explicit next observation event/date.
Followed by the Data Source Appendix (mandatory) — every figure in sections [1]–[7] traceable to a row with source, fetch time, period, and (for WebSearch rows) URL; final row is the reconciliation summary line (pass / within-tolerance residual list / or failure description).
⚠️ 以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资决策请结合自身风险承受能力独立判断。/ 以上內容僅供參考，不構成投資建議。投資決策請結合自身風險承受能力獨立判斷。/ For reference only. Not investment advice. Please make investment decisions independently based on your own risk tolerance.
ARK风格诊断报告包含7个固定章节（完整模板见
references/output.md
）:
  1. 标题+单行结论 — 平台归属、加权5年目标价、相对于当前价格的上涨/下跌空间、核心投资逻辑单行总结。
  2. 适配性校验 — 四个维度（平台适配度/创新业务收入/研发投入强度/管理层愿景）分别标注强/中/弱，并附单行证据。
  3. TAM — 三个层级，附来源标签及通俗易懂的类比说明。
  4. Wright's Law成本曲线 — 技术领域、带权威来源的学习率、当前成本位置、通俗易懂的解读。
  5. 5年目标价——三种情景 — 牛市/基准/熊市表格，明确列出（市场份额、净利润率、终端估值倍数）、加权预期值、当前价格、上涨/下跌空间。
  6. 主要风险 — 3个具体、明确的风险（非通用套话）。
  7. 行动框架+关键观察节点 — 仅包含基于条件的语句（"若你认为X成立，则当前价格意味着Y"）；不得给出买入/卖出指令。同时列出1个明确的下一个观察事件/日期。
随后是数据源附录（必填） — 章节[1]-[7]中的每个数据都可追溯至包含来源、获取时间、期间及（WebSearch数据）链接的行；最后一行为勾稽校验总结行（通过/容忍范围内差异列表/失败描述）。
⚠️ 以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资决策请结合自身风险承受能力独立判断。/ 以上內容僅供參考，不構成投資建議。投資決策請結合自身風險承受能力獨立判斷。/ For reference only. Not investment advice. Please make investment decisions independently based on your own risk tolerance.

Error handling

错误处理

Situation简体回复繁體回覆English reply
command not found: longbridge
回退到 MCP；若不可用，请安装 longbridge-terminal。回退到 MCP；若不可用，請安裝 longbridge-terminal。Fall back to MCP; if unavailable install longbridge-terminal.
stderr 
not logged in
/ 
unauthorized
请运行 
longbridge auth login
。		請執行 
longbridge auth login
。		Run 
longbridge auth login
.
Sector = traditional / being-disrupted / pre-revenue / mature直接拒绝并按 
references/output.md
给出原因 A/B/C/D 与替代方法推荐。		直接拒絕並按 
references/output.md
給出原因 A/B/C/D 與替代方法推薦。		Reject and emit reason A/B/C/D plus alternative-method recommendation per 
references/output.md
.
Reconciliation fails > tolerance明确披露失败项与差距，不输出任何评分或目标价；附录仍输出且勾稽汇总行注明失败。明確披露失敗項與差距，不輸出任何評分或目標價；附錄仍輸出且勾稽匯總行註明失敗。Disclose failing check and gap; do not emit any scoring or target price; appendix still printed and reconciliation summary marks the failure.
TAM authority WebSearch returns nothing标注「TAM 暂无可引用的权威数据，以下为基于行业逻辑的估算区间」，附录该行写 
估算
而非伪造机构。		標註「TAM 暫無可引用的權威數據，以下為基於行業邏輯的估算區間」，附錄該行寫 
估算
而非偽造機構。		Tag "TAM has no citable authoritative figure; the band shown is a logic-based estimate"; appendix row uses 
估算
(estimated), never a fabricated publisher.
Learning-rate authority WebSearch returns nothing标注「学习率暂无公开权威数据」；不得直接使用本 Skill 中嵌入的历史数字。標註「學習率暫無公開權威數據」；不得直接使用本 Skill 中嵌入的歷史數字。Tag "no publicly available authoritative learning rate"; do not silently use the embedded historical figure as current.
Suitability < pass threshold拒绝并匹配替代方法，不得给出「仅供参考」的 ARK 分析。拒絕並匹配替代方法，不得給出「僅供參考」的 ARK 分析。Reject and match an alternative method; do not produce a "for reference" ARK analysis.
User horizon < 3 years stated提示 ARK 框架是 5 年视角，与短期需求不匹配。提示 ARK 框架是 5 年視角，與短期需求不匹配。Warn that the ARK framework is a 5-year lens and does not fit a < 3-year horizon.
Other stderr原样透传错误，不静默重试。原樣透傳錯誤，不靜默重試。Surface stderr verbatim; never silently retry.
场景简体回复繁體回覆English reply
command not found: longbridge
回退到 MCP；若不可用，请安装 longbridge-terminal。回退到 MCP；若不可用，請安裝 longbridge-terminal。Fall back to MCP; if unavailable install longbridge-terminal.
stderr 
not logged in
/ 
unauthorized
请运行 
longbridge auth login
。		請執行 
longbridge auth login
。		Run 
longbridge auth login
.
行业=传统/被颠覆/未盈利/成熟直接拒绝并按 
references/output.md
给出原因 A/B/C/D 与替代方法推荐。		直接拒絕並按 
references/output.md
給出原因 A/B/C/D 與替代方法推薦。		Reject and emit reason A/B/C/D plus alternative-method recommendation per 
references/output.md
.
勾稽校验超出容忍范围失败明确披露失败项与差距，不输出任何评分或目标价；附录仍输出且勾稽汇总行注明失败。明確披露失敗項與差距，不輸出任何評分或目標價；附錄仍輸出且勾稽匯總行註明失敗。Disclose failing check and gap; do not emit any scoring or target price; appendix still printed and reconciliation summary marks the failure.
TAM权威数据WebSearch无结果标注「TAM 暂无可引用的权威数据，以下为基于行业逻辑的估算区间」，附录该行写 
估算
而非伪造机构。		標註「TAM 暫無可引用的權威數據，以下為基於行業邏輯的估算區間」，附錄該行寫 
估算
而非偽造機構。		Tag "TAM has no citable authoritative figure; the band shown is a logic-based estimate"; appendix row uses 
估算
(estimated), never a fabricated publisher.
学习率权威数据WebSearch无结果标注「学习率暂无公开权威数据」；不得直接使用本 Skill 中嵌入的历史数字。標註「學習率暫無公開權威數據」；不得直接使用本 Skill 中嵌入的歷史數字。Tag "no publicly available authoritative learning rate"; do not silently use the embedded historical figure as current.
适配性未达通过阈值拒绝并匹配替代方法，不得给出「仅供参考」的 ARK 分析。拒絕並匹配替代方法，不得給出「僅供參考」的 ARK 分析。Reject and match an alternative method; do not produce a "for reference" ARK analysis.
用户明确要求分析周期<3年提示 ARK 框架是 5 年视角，与短期需求不匹配。提示 ARK 框架是 5 年視角，與短期需求不匹配。Warn that the ARK framework is a 5-year lens and does not fit a < 3-year horizon.
其他stderr错误原样透传错误，不静默重试。原樣透傳錯誤，不靜默重試。Surface stderr verbatim; never silently retry.

MCP fallback

MCP fallback

If 
longbridge
CLI is not installed, use MCP tools (
claude mcp add --transport http longbridge https://openapi.longbridge.com/mcp
, 
quote
scope):
MCP toolCLI equivalent
mcp__longbridge__financial_report
longbridge financial-report
mcp__longbridge__calc_indexes
longbridge calc-index
mcp__longbridge__quote
longbridge quote
mcp__longbridge__kline
longbridge kline
mcp__longbridge__basicinfo
longbridge basicinfo
mcp__longbridge__news
longbridge news
mcp__longbridge__sec_filings
longbridge sec-filings
若未安装
longbridge
CLI，使用MCP工具（
claude mcp add --transport http longbridge https://openapi.longbridge.com/mcp
，
quote
权限）:
MCP工具CLI等效命令
mcp__longbridge__financial_report
longbridge financial-report
mcp__longbridge__calc_indexes
longbridge calc-index
mcp__longbridge__quote
longbridge quote
mcp__longbridge__kline
longbridge kline
mcp__longbridge__basicinfo
longbridge basicinfo
mcp__longbridge__news
longbridge news
mcp__longbridge__sec_filings
longbridge sec-filings

Related skills

相关工具

  • Buffett moat single-stock view → 
    longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer
  • Graham cigar-butt single-stock view → 
    longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
  • DCF intrinsic value → 
    longbridge-dcf
  • Three-statement reading → 
    longbridge-financial-report
  • Peer benchmarking → 
    longbridge-peer-comparison
  • Industry runway / sector view → 
    longbridge-industry-overview
  • Method selection guide → 
    longbridge-valuation-methodology
  • Small-cap growth → 
    longbridge-smallcap-growth
  • 巴菲特风格单股护城河分析 → 
    longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer
  • 格雷厄姆风格单股雪茄烟蒂分析 → 
    longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
  • DCF内在价值分析 → 
    longbridge-dcf
  • 三报表解读 → 
    longbridge-financial-report
  • 同业对标分析 → 
    longbridge-peer-comparison
  • 行业发展空间/板块分析 → 
    longbridge-industry-overview
  • 估值方法选择指南 → 
    longbridge-valuation-methodology
  • 小盘成长股分析 → 
    longbridge-smallcap-growth

File layout

文件结构

longbridge-ark-analysis/
├── SKILL.md
└── references/
    ├── scoring.md      # suitability rubric + reject reasons + alt-method matching + TAM rules + Wright's-Law table + scenario formula
    └── output.md       # full report template + label-translation lookup + reconciliation summary variants + ARK disclaimer
longbridge-ark-analysis/
├── SKILL.md
└── references/
    ├── scoring.md      # 适配性评分标准 + 拒绝原因 + 替代方法匹配 + TAM规则 + Wright's Law表格 + 情景分析公式
    └── output.md       # 完整报告模板 + 标签翻译对照表 + 勾稽校验总结变体 + ARK免责声明