longbridge-ark-analysis
Prompt-only ARK-inspired diagnostic for a single ticker. Runs a suitability gate (must be a disruptive-innovation name), then builds TAM, a Wright's-Law cost-curve note, and a three-scenario 5-year target price. Closes with a mandatory data-source appendix whose final row is a one-line reconciliation summary.
Response language: detect the user's input language (Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English) and render the
entire report — every section heading, label, scenario write-up, narrative, education block, appendix row, reconciliation summary, and disclaimer — in that one language. Do not mix languages within a single output. The output template in
is shown in English for reference; translate it as a whole into the user's language using the label-translation lookup in that file. The error / source tables inside
this SKILL.md remain 3-column because they document what the skill says under each language — that 3-column form is for the skill's reference docs, not for the user-facing report.
Independence statement (mandatory): this skill is an independent implementation inspired by ARK Invest's publicly described methodology. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or representative of ARK Invest or Cathie Wood's actual views or positions. The independence statement must appear in the disclaimer of every output.
When to use
- "用木头姐的方法分析 TSLA" / "用木頭姐的方法分析 TSLA" / "analyze TSLA with the ARK framework"
- "ARK 怎么看 NVDA" / "ARK 怎麼看 NVDA" / "how does ARK see NVDA"
- "PLTR 的颠覆式创新逻辑成立吗" / "PLTR 的顛覆式創新邏輯成立嗎" / "is PLTR a real disruptive-innovation story"
- "帮我算一下 TSLA 5 年的 bull base bear 目标价" / "算一下 TSLA 5 年的 bull base bear 目標價" / "build a 5-year bull/base/bear target on TSLA"
- "AMZN 属于 ARK 的哪个平台" / "AMZN 屬於 ARK 的哪個平台" / "which ARK platform is AMZN in"
- "建行用 ARK 怎么看" / "建行用 ARK 怎麼看" / "would the ARK framework work on CCB" (→ reject + recommend alternative)
For Buffett-style moat analysis →
longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer
. For Graham cigar-butt →
longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
. For pure DCF →
. For peer benchmarking →
longbridge-peer-comparison
.
Cognitive frame (do not skip)
ARK's reference is 5-year ownership of disruptive-innovation companies, with three-scenario thinking around a TAM × market-share × margin × multiple terminal value, discounted back. Two things every output must surface:
- Suitability is a gate, not a soft preference. If the company is not in one of ARK's five innovation platforms (Artificial Intelligence · Robotics & Autonomous Mobility · Energy Storage & EV Adoption · Multiomic Sequencing & AI Drug Discovery · Public Blockchains & Digital Assets — see §Suitability for the value-chain decomposition into upstream / core / downstream / adjacent tiers, and the convergence themes), reject and recommend an alternative method — do not produce a "for reference" ARK report on a bank, oil major, or consumer staple. A company qualifies if its revenue depends materially on any tier of a platform (upstream / core / downstream / adjacent) — not only on being the platform's headline name.
- 5-year predictions are wide ranges, not point estimates. TAM and market share are deeply uncertain. The output always shows three scenarios (Bull / Base / Bear) with explicit assumptions; never collapse them to a single confident number, and never present the weighted target price as a forecast — call it a model-derived expectation.
Two failure modes the user must be able to distinguish:
- "Right platform, wrong company" → platform fit strong but innovation revenue < 20% or no quantified management vision → ❌ reject; recommend a method that fits the actual revenue mix.
- "Right company, framework limit" → fits the platform but pre-revenue / no comparable history → ❌ reject (data-basis insufficient); recommend an early-stage framework.
Workflow
- Resolve symbol to (e.g. , , ).
- Sector triage:
- Traditional industry (bank / insurance / oil / real estate / staples / utilities not in energy-transition) → halt with reject reason A — Traditional industry (see §Reject reasons).
- Being-disrupted incumbent (e.g. ICE auto, fossil-fuel major, legacy media against streaming) → halt with reason B — Being disrupted.
- Pre-revenue / listed < 2 fiscal years / no meaningful revenue history → halt with reason C — Data basis insufficient.
- Mature tech with disruption already priced in (e.g. mature consumer electronics supply chain) → halt with reason D — Disruption premium already realised.
- Fetch raw data via Longbridge CLI first (parallel where possible). See §CLI. If is missing, fall back to MCP (see §MCP fallback). Use WebSearch only for items genuinely outside Longbridge — TAM figures, Wright's-Law learning rates, qualitative management innovation signals, industry-runway evidence.
- Reconciliation gate (勾稽校验) — runs before suitability scoring or any analysis. See §Reconciliation. Two-state outcome:
- Pass (every check within tolerance) → proceed. A one-line summary of the result still appears at the end of the data-source appendix.
- Fail (any check exceeds tolerance) → halt all downstream analysis, emit a halt message naming the failing check and gap, still print the data-source appendix and the reconciliation summary describing the failure.
- Suitability scoring — score 4 dimensions on 强/中/弱; apply the pass/reject matrix in §Suitability. If reject, emit the reject layout (see §Reject case) with an alternative-method recommendation matched from §Alternative-method matching. Do not produce a "for reference" ARK analysis on a rejected name.
- TAM — three tiers (low / base / high), each tagged with a source priority (权威机构 > 公司自披露 > 学术/智库 > ARK 公开报告 > 估算). Estimation-only TAM must be explicitly labelled . See §TAM rules.
- Wright's-Law note — pick the technology learning rate from the table in §Wright's Law and refresh it via WebSearch against the cited authority (BloombergNEF / IRENA / NHGRI / Epoch AI / ARK). Never use the embedded historical figure as the current value without verification.
- Three-scenario 5-year target — Bull / Base / Bear with explicit (TAM, market share, net margin, terminal multiple) for each; weights 25 / 50 / 25 by default; discount rate 15% over 5 years; report each scenario price plus weighted expectation and upside/downside vs current price. See §Scenario.
- Risks, action-frame, key observation node — three concrete risks, condition-based action sentences (no buy/sell command), one explicit next observation event/date.
- Output the report from — summary line → suitability → TAM → cost curve → 3 scenarios → risks → action frame → Data Source Appendix (mandatory) ending with the reconciliation summary line. Close with the ARK disclaimer variant matching the user's input language (single-language only — see §Disclaimer variants).
CLI
Run
longbridge <subcommand> --help
to verify exact flags before each call — do not hard-code flag names without verification. Primary calls (run in parallel):
bash
# Balance sheet — equity, debt, working capital (for reconciliation only; ARK analysis is forward-looking)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report af --format json # last 3–5 annual
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report qf --format json # last 4 quarterly
# Income statement — revenue, segment mix, gross/operating margin, R&D
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report af --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report qf --format json
# Cash flow — CFO, capex, FCF; for reconciliation and capital-intensity context
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report af --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report qf --format json
# Snapshot: current price, PE, PB, shares outstanding, market cap
longbridge quote <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
# Long-window history (used for sanity-checking current vs historical valuation, not as the primary anchor)
longbridge kline <SYMBOL> --period day --count 2500 --format json
# Company profile + classification (for platform-fit decision)
longbridge basicinfo <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge company-profile <SYMBOL> --format json
# Recent news + filings — for verifying management innovation vision claims
longbridge news <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge sec-filings <SYMBOL> --format json # US; for HK use the appropriate filings endpoint per --help
WebSearch fallback — only for items not available from Longbridge
ARK methodology depends heavily on third-party market-size and learning-rate data. WebSearch is required for TAM and Wright's-Law inputs; it must not be skipped to "save a step".
| Missing data | WebSearch query pattern | Acceptable source authorities |
|---|
| Sector TAM (general tech) | "<market name> market size 2030 Gartner"
| Gartner, IDC, Forrester, McKinsey Global Institute |
| Clean-energy TAM | "<segment> market size BloombergNEF"
| BloombergNEF, IRENA |
| Battery learning rate | "battery learning rate" BloombergNEF
| BloombergNEF EV Outlook (latest annual) |
| Solar PV learning rate | "solar PV learning rate" IRENA
| IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs |
| DNA sequencing cost trend | "DNA sequencing cost" NHGRI
| NHGRI cost database (latest update) |
| AI compute / inference cost | "AI compute cost" learning rate "Epoch AI"
| Epoch AI, MLCommons, Stanford AI Index |
| Autonomous-driving runway | site:ark-invest.com "autonomous" "Big Ideas"
| ARK Big Ideas (yearly, free) |
| Management innovation vision | "<CEO>" innovation roadmap shareholder letter
| Annual report, earnings call, IR deck |
| Regulatory / policy overhangs | "<sector> regulation <region> 2025"
| Government agency, FT, Reuters, WSJ |
Every WebSearch-sourced figure must be tagged
[Source: WebSearch — <publisher>, <report name>, <year>, <url>]
in the appendix; never silently mix it with Longbridge data, never invent a publisher to dress up an internal estimate.
Reconciliation (勾稽校验)
Before any suitability scoring, TAM construction, or target-price calculation, verify the fetched figures are internally consistent. Reconciliation is user-visible in this skill — a one-line summary always appears as the final row of the Data Source Appendix. If a check fails, all downstream analysis halts.
| Check | Formula | Tolerance |
|---|
| IS↔BS link | Net income(t) ≈ Δ Retained earnings(BS, t) − dividends paid(CF, t) | ±3% |
| IS↔CF link | Net income + D&A + impairments + ΔWC ≈ Operating CF | ±5% |
| CF↔BS link | ΔCash from CF statement = Cash(t) − Cash(t−1) on BS | ±1% |
| Revenue segment sum | Σ segment revenue ≈ total revenue | ±2% |
| Innovation-revenue share | Innovation-related revenue / total revenue used in suitability matches the segment-mix breakdown | exact (must match what you display) |
| R&D ratio | R&D expense / total revenue used in suitability matches the IS statement | exact |
| BS — current assets sum | Cash + AR + Inventory + Other CA ≈ Total current assets | ±2% |
| BS — liabilities sum | ST debt + LT debt + Other liabilities ≈ Total liabilities | ±2% |
| Market cap | shares × current price ≈ market cap from | ±2% |
| Period alignment | All statements from the same fiscal period (or the lag is named) | exact |
| TAM source-tagging | Each TAM number has a source row in the appendix (机构 + 报告 + 年份, or ) | exact |
| Learning-rate source-tagging | Wright's-Law learning rate has a source row (BloombergNEF / IRENA / NHGRI / Epoch AI / ARK) | exact |
Output rules for reconciliation:
- All pass within tolerance → final appendix row uses the clean-pass variant from §Reconciliation summary, rendered in the user's input language only.
- Some residuals within tolerance but material to displayed figures → final appendix row lists each material residual on its own sub-line (which figure it affects).
- Any check fails > tolerance → halt all analysis; emit the halt message defined in §Reject case-reconciliation and still print the appendix with the reconciliation summary describing the failure.
Output
ARK-style diagnostic with 7 fixed sections (full template in
):
- Header + one-line conclusion — platform attribution, weighted 5-year target, upside/downside vs current price, the one-line "core bet" sentence.
- Suitability check — 4 dimensions (platform fit / innovation revenue / R&D intensity / management vision) each tagged 强 / 中 / 弱, with one-line evidence.
- TAM — three tiers with source tags and a plain-language analogy.
- Wright's-Law cost curve — technology domain, learning rate with cited authority, current cost position, plain-language interpretation.
- 5-year target — three scenarios — Bull / Base / Bear table with explicit (market share, net margin, terminal multiple), weighted expectation, current price, upside/downside.
- Main risks — 3 concrete, named risks (not generic boilerplate).
- Action frame + key observation node — condition-based sentences only ("if you believe X, then current price implies Y"); never a buy/sell directive. Plus one explicit next observation event/date.
Followed by the Data Source Appendix (mandatory) — every figure in sections [1]–[7] traceable to a row with source, fetch time, period, and (for WebSearch rows) URL; final row is the reconciliation summary line (pass / within-tolerance residual list / or failure description).
⚠️ 以上内容仅供参考，不构成投资建议。投资决策请结合自身风险承受能力独立判断。/ 以上內容僅供參考，不構成投資建議。投資決策請結合自身風險承受能力獨立判斷。/ For reference only. Not investment advice. Please make investment decisions independently based on your own risk tolerance.
Error handling
| Situation | 简体回复 | 繁體回覆 | English reply |
|---|
command not found: longbridge
| 回退到 MCP；若不可用，请安装 longbridge-terminal。 | 回退到 MCP；若不可用，請安裝 longbridge-terminal。 | Fall back to MCP; if unavailable install longbridge-terminal. |
| stderr / | 请运行 。 | 請執行 。 | Run . |
| Sector = traditional / being-disrupted / pre-revenue / mature | 直接拒绝并按 给出原因 A/B/C/D 与替代方法推荐。 | 直接拒絕並按 給出原因 A/B/C/D 與替代方法推薦。 | Reject and emit reason A/B/C/D plus alternative-method recommendation per . |
| Reconciliation fails > tolerance | 明确披露失败项与差距，不输出任何评分或目标价；附录仍输出且勾稽汇总行注明失败。 | 明確披露失敗項與差距，不輸出任何評分或目標價；附錄仍輸出且勾稽匯總行註明失敗。 | Disclose failing check and gap; do not emit any scoring or target price; appendix still printed and reconciliation summary marks the failure. |
| TAM authority WebSearch returns nothing | 标注「TAM 暂无可引用的权威数据，以下为基于行业逻辑的估算区间」，附录该行写 而非伪造机构。 | 標註「TAM 暫無可引用的權威數據，以下為基於行業邏輯的估算區間」，附錄該行寫 而非偽造機構。 | Tag "TAM has no citable authoritative figure; the band shown is a logic-based estimate"; appendix row uses (estimated), never a fabricated publisher. |
| Learning-rate authority WebSearch returns nothing | 标注「学习率暂无公开权威数据」；不得直接使用本 Skill 中嵌入的历史数字。 | 標註「學習率暫無公開權威數據」；不得直接使用本 Skill 中嵌入的歷史數字。 | Tag "no publicly available authoritative learning rate"; do not silently use the embedded historical figure as current. |
| Suitability < pass threshold | 拒绝并匹配替代方法，不得给出「仅供参考」的 ARK 分析。 | 拒絕並匹配替代方法，不得給出「僅供參考」的 ARK 分析。 | Reject and match an alternative method; do not produce a "for reference" ARK analysis. |
| User horizon < 3 years stated | 提示 ARK 框架是 5 年视角，与短期需求不匹配。 | 提示 ARK 框架是 5 年視角，與短期需求不匹配。 | Warn that the ARK framework is a 5-year lens and does not fit a < 3-year horizon. |
| Other stderr | 原样透传错误，不静默重试。 | 原樣透傳錯誤，不靜默重試。 | Surface stderr verbatim; never silently retry. |
MCP fallback
If
CLI is not installed, use MCP tools (
claude mcp add --transport http longbridge https://openapi.longbridge.com/mcp
,
scope):
| MCP tool | CLI equivalent |
|---|
mcp__longbridge__financial_report
| longbridge financial-report
|
mcp__longbridge__calc_indexes
| |
| |
| |
mcp__longbridge__basicinfo
| |
| |
mcp__longbridge__sec_filings
| |
Related skills
- Buffett moat single-stock view →
longbridge-buffett-moat-analyzer
- Graham cigar-butt single-stock view →
longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
- DCF intrinsic value →
- Three-statement reading →
longbridge-financial-report
- Peer benchmarking →
longbridge-peer-comparison
- Industry runway / sector view →
longbridge-industry-overview
- Method selection guide →
longbridge-valuation-methodology
- Small-cap growth →
longbridge-smallcap-growth
File layout
longbridge-ark-analysis/
├── SKILL.md
└── references/
├── scoring.md # suitability rubric + reject reasons + alt-method matching + TAM rules + Wright's-Law table + scenario formula
└── output.md # full report template + label-translation lookup + reconciliation summary variants + ARK disclaimer