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ChineseFinance — Unit Economics & Financial Models
财务——单位经济与财务模型
Know your numbers. Every dollar in, every dollar out, every dollar you'll need.
了解你的数据。每一笔进账、每一笔支出、每一笔你所需的资金都要清楚。
Unit Economics
单位经济
| Metric | Formula | Healthy Range |
|---|---|---|
| CAC | Total acquisition spend / new customers | Depends on LTV |
| LTV | ARPU × gross margin × avg lifespan (months) | LTV > 3× CAC |
| LTV:CAC | LTV / CAC | 3:1 to 5:1 |
| Payback period | CAC / (ARPU × gross margin) | < 12 months |
| Gross margin | (Revenue - COGS) / Revenue | > 70% for SaaS |
| Net revenue retention | (Start MRR + expansion - contraction - churn) / Start MRR | > 100% |
| Burn multiple | Net burn / net new ARR | < 2× good, < 1× great |
Rules:
- If you don't know your CAC, you don't know if your growth is profitable.
- LTV:CAC < 1 means you lose money on every customer. Stop spending.
- Payback period > 18 months = you need a lot of capital to grow.
| 指标 | 计算公式 | 健康区间 |
|---|---|---|
| CAC | 总获客支出 / 新客户数 | 取决于LTV |
| LTV | ARPU × 毛利率 × 平均客户生命周期（月） | LTV > 3× CAC |
| LTV:CAC | LTV / CAC | 3:1 至 5:1 |
| 回收期 | CAC / (ARPU × 毛利率) | < 12个月 |
| 毛利率 | (收入 - 销货成本) / 收入 | SaaS 行业需 >70% |
| 净收入留存率 | (期初MRR + 扩张收入 - 收缩收入 - 客户流失) / 期初MRR | >100% |
| 烧钱倍数 | 净烧钱额 / 新增净ARR | <2×为良好，<1×为优秀 |
规则：
- 如果你不知道自己的CAC，就无法判断增长是否盈利。
- LTV:CAC <1意味着每获取一个客户都在亏损，停止投入。
- 回收期>18个月=你需要大量资金才能实现增长。
Burn Rate & Runway
烧钱率与Runway
Monthly burn = monthly expenses - monthly revenue
Runway (months) = cash in bank / monthly burn| Runway | Action |
|---|---|
| 18+ months | Comfortable. Invest in growth. |
| 12-18 months | Start fundraising conversations. |
| 6-12 months | Cut non-essential spend. Raise urgently. |
| < 6 months | Survival mode. Cut to break-even or close. |
Track weekly: Cash balance, burn rate, revenue. No surprises.
月度烧钱额 = 月度支出 - 月度收入
Runway（月数）= 银行现金储备 / 月度烧钱额| Runway时长 | 应对措施 |
|---|---|
| 18+个月 | 状态良好，可投资于增长。 |
| 12-18个月 | 开始启动融资沟通。 |
| 6-12个月 | 削减非必要支出，紧急融资。 |
| <6个月 | 进入生存模式，削减支出至盈亏平衡或关闭业务。 |
每周追踪： 现金余额、烧钱率、收入。避免意外情况。
Revenue Forecasting
收入预测
Bottom-Up (Preferred)
自下而上法（推荐）
Monthly revenue = active customers × ARPU
Customer growth = new customers - churned customers
New customers = leads × conversion rate月度收入 = 活跃客户数 × ARPU
客户增长 = 新客户数 - 流失客户数
新客户数 = 潜在客户数 × 转化率Top-Down (For Context Only)
自上而下法（仅作参考）
TAM × achievable market share = revenue potentialNever forecast top-down to investors. They'll ask how you get there. Bottom-up shows the engine.
TAM × 可实现市场份额 = 收入潜力永远不要用自上而下法给投资人做预测。 他们会追问你实现路径，自下而上法能展示清晰的增长逻辑。
Pricing Math
定价计算
| Question | How to Answer |
|---|---|
| What should I charge? | 10× the value delivered, or anchor to alternatives |
| Should I raise prices? | If <5% of prospects mention price as objection, yes |
| Free tier? | Only if virality/network effects justify it |
| Annual discount? | 15-20% discount for annual. Improves cash flow + retention |
| Per-seat vs usage? | Per-seat if value scales with people. Usage if value scales with volume. |
| 问题 | 解答方法 |
|---|---|
| 我应该定价多少？ | 按交付价值的10倍定价，或对标竞品定价 |
| 我应该涨价吗？ | 如果不足5%的潜在客户提及价格异议，就可以涨价 |
| 是否设置免费层级？ | 仅当病毒式传播/网络效应能带来足够价值时才设置 |
| 年度订阅折扣？ | 年度订阅可提供15-20%折扣，能改善现金流并提升留存率 |
| 按席位定价 vs 按使用量定价？ | 若价值随用户数增长则按席位定价；若价值随使用量增长则按使用量定价 |
Financial Model Template
财务模型模板
Build a 24-month model with these tabs:
| Tab | Contents |
|---|---|
| Revenue | MRR by cohort, expansion, churn, net new |
| Costs | People, infra, tools, marketing, G&A |
| Headcount | By function, with start dates and salaries |
| Cash | Opening balance, revenue, expenses, closing balance, runway |
| Metrics | CAC, LTV, burn multiple, gross margin, NRR |
Rules:
- Separate assumptions from calculations. Every input in one place.
- Scenario model: base, optimistic, pessimistic. Share base with investors.
- Update monthly with actuals vs forecast. Calibrate assumptions.
构建一个包含以下标签页的24个月模型：
| 标签页 | 内容 |
|---|---|
| 收入 | 按客户群组划分的MRR、扩张收入、流失收入、新增净收入 |
| 成本 | 人力、基础设施、工具、营销、一般及行政开支（G&A） |
| 人员编制 | 按职能划分，包含入职日期与薪资 |
| 现金流 | 期初余额、收入、支出、期末余额、Runway |
| 指标 | CAC、LTV、烧钱倍数、毛利率、NRR |
规则：
- 将假设条件与计算结果分离，所有输入项集中管理。
- 构建场景模型：基准、乐观、悲观。给投资人展示基准场景即可。
- 每月更新实际数据与预测数据的对比，校准假设条件。
Common Mistakes
常见错误
| Mistake | Reality |
|---|---|
| Ignoring COGS | SaaS COGS = hosting + support + payment processing |
| Counting revenue before collection | Cash ≠ bookings ≠ revenue. Know the difference. |
| Hiring ahead of revenue | Every hire adds ~12 months of burn commitment |
| No scenario planning | "Plan for the best, model for the worst" |
| Forgetting payment processing fees | Stripe takes 2.9% + 30¢. At scale, this matters. |
| 错误 | 实际情况 |
|---|---|
| 忽略销货成本（COGS） | SaaS的COGS = 托管成本 + 支持成本 + 支付处理费用 |
| 未收款就计入收入 | 现金 ≠ 订单 ≠ 收入，要明确三者区别 |
| 提前招聘人员 | 每招聘一名员工会增加约12个月的烧钱承诺 |
| 未做场景规划 | “做最好的打算，做最坏的建模” |
| 忘记支付处理费用 | Stripe收取2.9% + 30美分的手续费，规模扩大后影响显著 |