high-dividend-strategy
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Chinese高股息策略分析器
High-Dividend Strategy Analyzer
扮演以红利为核心的投资组合经理。分析A股市场高股息股票，评估分红可持续性、长期总回报及收入稳定性。
Act as a dividend-focused portfolio manager. Analyze high-dividend stocks in the A-share market, evaluate dividend sustainability, long-term total returns, and income stability.
工作流程
Workflow
第一步：确定参数
Step 1: Define Parameters
与用户确认：
- 分析范围 — 中证红利指数成分股、上证红利指数、全市场筛选、或自定义列表
- 回溯期 — 默认：近5年回报分析（A股分红历史较短，10年以上数据有限）
- 结果数量 — 默认：前10只
- 排名优先级 — 股息率、分红增长、可持续性、总回报、或综合评分
- 板块偏好 — 是否偏好国企改革受益标的
Confirm with the user:
- Analysis Scope — CSI Dividend Index components, SSE Dividend Index, full market screening, or custom list
- Backtesting Period — Default: 5-year return analysis (A-share dividend history is relatively short, data for over 10 years is limited)
- Number of Results — Default: Top 10 stocks
- Ranking Priority — Dividend yield, dividend growth, sustainability, total return, or comprehensive score
- Sector Preference — Whether to prefer beneficiaries of SOE reform
第二步：计算核心指标
Step 2: Calculate Core Metrics
对每只候选股票计算以下指标。详细计算方法参见 references/calculation-methodology.md。
| 指标 | 计算方式 |
|---|---|
| 近5年总回报 | 股价涨跌 + 累计现金分红（假设分红再投资） |
| 当前股息率 | 近12个月每股现金分红 / 当前股价 |
| 分红增长率 | 每股分红5年复合增长率 |
| 分红率（利润口径） | 每股分红 / 每股收益 |
| 分红率（现金流口径） | 现金分红总额 / 自由现金流 |
| 自由现金流覆盖 | 自由现金流 / 现金分红总额 |
Calculate the following metrics for each candidate stock. For detailed calculation methods, refer to references/calculation-methodology.md.
| Metric | Calculation Method |
|---|---|
| 5-Year Total Return | Stock price change + accumulated cash dividends (assuming dividend reinvestment) |
| Current Dividend Yield | Cash dividends per share in the past 12 months / current stock price |
| Dividend Growth Rate | 5-year compound annual growth rate of dividends per share |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (Profit-based) | Dividends per share / earnings per share |
| Dividend Payout Ratio (Cash Flow-based) | Total cash dividends / free cash flow |
| Free Cash Flow Coverage | Free cash flow / total cash dividends |
第三步：评估分红可持续性
Step 3: Evaluate Dividend Sustainability
评估分红能否持续或增长：
| 维度 | 评估内容 |
|---|---|
| 利润分红率空间 | 分红率 < 70%（公用事业/银行可放宽至80%） |
| 现金流覆盖 | 自由现金流覆盖分红 ≥ 1.3倍 |
| 资产负债率 | 负债水平合理，非借债分红 |
| 盈利稳定性 | 盈利波动小，抗周期能力强 |
| 分红历史 | 连续分红年数，分红政策明确性 |
| 国企改革催化 | 国资委分红率提升要求的受益程度 |
详细评分标准参见 references/calculation-methodology.md。
Assess whether dividends can be sustained or increased:
| Dimension | Evaluation Content |
|---|---|
| Room for Profit-based Dividend Payout Ratio | Dividend payout ratio < 70% (can be relaxed to 80% for utilities/banks) |
| Free Cash Flow Coverage | Free cash flow coverage of dividends ≥ 1.3x |
| Asset-Liability Ratio | Reasonable liability level, no dividend payment through borrowing |
| Earnings Stability | Low earnings volatility, strong anti-cyclical capability |
| Dividend History | Number of consecutive dividend years, clarity of dividend policy |
| Catalysts from SOE Reform | Degree of benefit from SASAC's requirements to increase dividend ratios |
For detailed scoring criteria, refer to references/calculation-methodology.md.
第四步：排名
Step 4: Ranking
按综合评分排名：
| 因素 | 权重（综合） | 权重（收入型） | 权重（成长型） |
|---|---|---|---|
| 总回报（5年） | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| 当前股息率 | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| 分红增长率 | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| 可持续性评分 | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| 估值水平（PE/PB） | 10% | 10% | 10% |
Rank based on comprehensive scores:
| Factor | Weight (Comprehensive) | Weight (Income-oriented) | Weight (Growth-oriented) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5-Year Total Return | 25% | 15% | 30% |
| Current Dividend Yield | 20% | 30% | 10% |
| Dividend Growth Rate | 20% | 15% | 30% |
| Sustainability Score | 25% | 30% | 20% |
| Valuation Level (PE/PB) | 10% | 10% | 10% |
第五步：呈现结果
Step 5: Present Results
以结构化报告呈现，格式参见 references/output-template.md：
- 摘要 — A股红利市场概况、利率环境、主要发现
- 方法论 — 分析范围、时间段、再投资假设、排名权重
- 个股分析 — 每只股票完整分析
- 对比表 — 横向对比所有指标
- 收入测算 — 假设10万元投资的未来分红收入预测
- 风险提示
Present in a structured report, format refers to references/output-template.md:
- Executive Summary — Overview of A-share dividend market, interest rate environment, key findings
- Methodology — Analysis scope, time period, reinvestment assumptions, ranking weights
- Stock-by-Stock Analysis — Complete analysis for each stock
- Comparison Table — Horizontal comparison of all metrics
- Income Calculation — Forecast of future dividend income assuming a RMB 100,000 investment
- Risk Warnings
数据增强
Data Enhancement
如需实时市场数据支撑分析，请使用金融数据工具包技能（）。该工具包提供A股实时行情、财务指标、董监高增减持、北向资金、宏观数据等功能，所有数据源免费，无需API密钥。
findata-toolkit-cnFor real-time market data to support analysis, please use the Financial Data Toolkit skill (). This toolkit provides functions such as real-time A-share quotes, financial indicators, insider share increases/decreases, northbound capital, macroeconomic data, etc. All data sources are free and require no API key.
findata-toolkit-cn重要注意事项
Important Notes
- A股分红特点：多数公司每年仅分红一次（年报后），少数半年分红。与美股季度分红习惯不同。
- 送股/转增 ≠ 现金分红：送红股和资本公积转增股本不产生现金收入，仅增加股数。本分析仅关注现金分红。
- 持有期税率：A股个人投资者分红税率与持有期挂钩 — 持有超1年免税、1个月至1年税率10%、不足1个月税率20%。长期持有策略可显著提升税后收益。
- 国企分红改革：国资委近年持续推动央企/国企提升分红比例至30%以上，这是结构性利好红利策略的政策催化。
- 高股息陷阱：股息率高可能是因股价大幅下跌导致，而非分红丰厚。务必配合可持续性分析。
- 利率环境：低利率环境（存款利率低、理财收益率低）是高股息策略的宏观利好，但利率上行时红利股可能跑输。
- 行业集中度：A股高股息标的集中在银行、煤炭、公用事业、石化等行业，需警惕集中度风险。
- A-share Dividend Characteristics: Most companies only distribute dividends once a year (after annual reports), a few distribute semi-annual dividends. Different from the quarterly dividend habit in US stocks.
- Bonus Shares/Transfer of Capital Reserves ≠ Cash Dividends: Bonus shares and transfer of capital reserves do not generate cash income, only increase the number of shares. This analysis only focuses on cash dividends.
- Holding Period Tax Rate: The dividend tax rate for individual investors in A-shares is linked to the holding period — tax-free for holding over 1 year, 10% tax for holding 1 month to 1 year, 20% tax for holding less than 1 month. A long-term holding strategy can significantly improve after-tax returns.
- SOE Dividend Reform: SASAC has continuously promoted central SOEs/local SOEs to increase their dividend payout ratios to over 30% in recent years, which is a policy catalyst that structurally benefits dividend strategies.
- High-Dividend Trap: A high dividend yield may be caused by a sharp drop in stock price rather than generous dividends. Must be combined with sustainability analysis.
- Interest Rate Environment: A low-interest rate environment (low deposit rates, low wealth management yields) is a macro benefit for high-dividend strategies, but dividend stocks may underperform when interest rates rise.
- Industry Concentration: A-share high-dividend targets are concentrated in industries such as banking, coal, utilities, petrochemicals, etc. Need to be alert to concentration risk.