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personal-cfo

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/personal-cfo — Personal financial scenario modeling

/personal-cfo — 个人财务场景建模

This skill is for a household (you + partner): housing decisions, monthly cash flow, big purchases, scenario what-ifs. Pair it with a business-books CFO skill if you also run one for a company — the DNA is the same, the domain is different.
本技能适用于家庭（你+伴侣）：住房决策、月度现金流、大额采购、假设场景分析。如果你还为公司使用商务书籍CFO技能，二者核心逻辑相同，只是适用领域不同。

Step 1 — Pick the scenario type

步骤1 — 选择场景类型

InvocationTypeWhat it models
/personal-cfo house
(default for now)		houseBuy a house + rental income scenarios (ADU / bedrooms / combinations) + renovations + monthly cash flow
/personal-cfo refi
refiRefinancing scenarios
/personal-cfo cash-flow
cash-flowGeneric monthly cash flow (income, expenses, savings rate)
/personal-cfo big-purchase
big-purchaseShould we buy X (car, education, equipment) — cash vs finance vs lease comparisons
/personal-cfo side-income
side-incomeAdding a side income stream — break-even, tax implications
/personal-cfo savings-what-if
savings-what-ifWhat if we put $X into Y for N years — index funds, real estate, etc.
For v0.1, only the house template is fleshed out. Others are sketched in 
references/templates/
as stubs.
调用指令类型建模内容
/personal-cfo house
（目前默认选项）		house购房+租赁收入场景（ADU/卧室/组合形式）+装修+月度现金流
/personal-cfo refi
refi再融资场景
/personal-cfo cash-flow
cash-flow通用月度现金流（收入、支出、储蓄率）
/personal-cfo big-purchase
big-purchase是否购买X（汽车、教育、设备）——全款vs贷款vs租赁对比
/personal-cfo side-income
side-income新增副业收入流——收支平衡点、税务影响
/personal-cfo savings-what-if
savings-what-if如果我们在N年内将$X投入Y会怎样——指数基金、房地产等
v0.1版本仅完善了house模板。其他模板作为存根文件放在
references/templates/
中。

Step 2 — Gather inputs

步骤2 — 收集输入信息

Ask in a structured batch. For house mode, see 
references/templates/house.md
for the full input questionnaire. Core fields:
Property
  • Purchase price
  • Down payment (% or $)
  • Mortgage rate + term (years)
  • Property taxes (annual)
  • HOA (monthly, if any)
  • Homeowner's insurance (monthly)
  • Closing costs (estimate)
Renovations / repairs
  • Day-1 renovations (line items with estimates — kitchen, bath, ADU buildout, etc.)
  • Year-1 expected repairs
  • Annual maintenance budget (rule of thumb: 1% of purchase price)
Rental scenarios (for the house mode)
  • ADU monthly rent estimate + vacancy assumption (typical: 5–8%)
  • Bedroom 1 monthly rent + vacancy
  • Bedroom 2 monthly rent + vacancy
  • Utilities split assumption (who pays what)
  • Property management cost (if not self-managing)
Personal
  • Current monthly housing cost (rent or current mortgage)
  • Combined household income
  • Marginal tax bracket (for mortgage interest + rental income calcs)
  • Time horizon for the analysis (typical: 5 yr, 10 yr, 30 yr)
If anything's fuzzy, ask. Don't proceed with placeholder numbers — financial models with wrong inputs are dangerous.
结构化批量询问。房屋模式下，完整的输入问卷请查看
references/templates/house.md
。核心字段：
房产信息
  • 购房总价
  • 首付（百分比或金额）
  • 抵押贷款利率+期限（年）
  • 房产税（年度）
  • 物业费（月度，如有）
  • 房屋保险（月度）
  • 成交费用（预估）
装修/维修
  • 入住首日装修（分项预估——厨房、浴室、ADU扩建等）
  • 第一年预计维修费用
  • 年度维护预算（经验法则：购房总价的1%）
租赁场景（房屋模式下）
  • ADU月度租金预估+空置率假设（通常：5–8%）
  • 卧室1月度租金+空置率
  • 卧室2月度租金+空置率
  • 水电费分摊假设（谁支付哪些费用）
  • 物业管理费（如果不自管）
个人信息
  • 当前月度住房成本（租金或现有抵押贷款）
  • 家庭总收入
  • 边际税率（用于抵押贷款利息+租赁收入计算）
  • 分析时间跨度（通常：5年、10年、30年）
如有信息模糊，需进一步询问。不要使用占位符数字——输入错误的财务模型风险极高。

Step 3 — Build the scenarios

步骤3 — 创建场景

For the house mode, default scenarios to compare:
ScenarioDescription
BaselineOwn + live in, no rental income
A: ADU onlyRent the ADU, live in main house
B: 1 bedroom onlyHouse-hack 1 bedroom, keep ADU empty (or for guests)
C: 2 bedrooms onlyHouse-hack 2 bedrooms, ADU empty
D: ADU + 1 bedroomBoth ADU and 1 bedroom rented
E: ADU + 2 bedroomsMaximum rental
F: ADU + bedrooms (year 2+)Year 1: just ADU while renovating. Year 2+: add bedrooms after partner's comfort
Let the user customize the scenario list — every house is different.
房屋模式下，默认对比场景：
场景描述
基准场景自住，无租赁收入
A: 仅ADU出租出租ADU，自住主屋
B: 仅1间卧室出租共享1间卧室，ADU空置（或用于接待客人）
C: 仅2间卧室出租共享2间卧室，ADU空置
D: ADU+1间卧室出租ADU和1间卧室均出租
E: ADU+2间卧室出租最大化租赁收入
F: ADU+卧室（第2年及以后）第1年：仅出租ADU，同时进行装修。第2年及以后：伴侣适应后新增卧室出租
允许用户自定义场景列表——每套房屋情况都不同。

Step 4 — Run the math

步骤4 — 计算分析

For each scenario, calculate:
Monthly
  • Mortgage payment (P&I) — see 
    references/calculators.md
    for the formula
    • Property tax / 12
    • HOA + Insurance + Utilities (owner-paid portion)
  • − Gross rental income (rooms + ADU)
  • × (1 − vacancy rate) for effective rental income
  • − Property management fee (if applicable)
  • = Net monthly housing cost (negative = positive cash flow)
Annual
  • Sum of 12 months
    • One-time renovation costs (amortized over time horizon)
  • − Tax savings (mortgage interest deduction + depreciation on rented portion)
Long-term
  • Equity build-up (mortgage paydown + appreciation assumption — default 3%/yr)
  • Total cost of ownership at year 5 / 10 / 30
  • Return on cash invested vs. alternative (e.g., S&P 500 at 7% real return)
针对每个场景，计算以下内容：
月度数据
  • 抵押贷款月供（本金+利息）——公式请查看
    references/calculators.md
    • 房产税/12
    • 物业费+保险+水电费（业主支付部分）
  • − 总租赁收入（房间+ADU）
  • × (1 − 空置率) 得出实际租赁收入
  • − 物业管理费（如适用）
  • = 月度住房净成本（负数表示正现金流）
年度数据
  • 12个月数据总和
    • 一次性装修成本（按时间跨度摊销）
  • − 节税额（抵押贷款利息扣除+出租部分折旧）
长期数据
  • 资产积累（抵押贷款偿还+增值假设——默认每年3%）
  • 第5/10/30年的总持有成本
  • 投入资金的回报率vs替代方案（如：标普500指数实际回报率7%）

Step 5 — Output the comparison table

步骤5 — 输出对比表格

Output to 
~/Documents/personal-cfo/<scenario-slug>-<YYYY-MM-DD>/
:
  • inputs.yaml
    — all the input numbers (so the analysis is rerunnable + auditable)
  • report.md
    — the full analysis with assumptions called out
  • comparison.md
    — side-by-side scenario table (the headline output)
输出至
~/Documents/personal-cfo/<scenario-slug>-<YYYY-MM-DD>/
：
  • inputs.yaml
    — 所有输入数据（确保分析可重复、可审计）
  • report.md
    — 完整分析报告，列明假设条件
  • comparison.md
    — 场景并排对比表格（核心输出）

comparison.md
template

comparison.md
模板

markdown
undefined
markdown
undefined

<Property nickname> — scenario comparison

<房产昵称> — 场景对比

Date: YYYY-MM-DD Property: <address or nickname> Time horizon: 10 years Key assumptions: 3%/yr appreciation, 7% S&P alt return, 6% vacancy
ScenarioNet monthly costAnnual cost10-yr totalEquity @ 10yrNotes
Baseline$X,XXX$XX,XXX$XXX,XXX$XXX,XXXNo rental income
A: ADU$X,XXX$XX,XXX$XXX,XXX$XXX,XXX$X,XXX/mo ADU rent
B: 1 BR……………
C: 2 BR……………
D: ADU + 1 BR……………
E: ADU + 2 BR……………
日期: YYYY-MM-DD 房产: <地址或昵称> 时间跨度: 10年 核心假设: 年增值3%，标普替代回报率7%，空置率6%
场景月度净成本年度成本10年总成本10年资产净值备注
基准场景$X,XXX$XX,XXX$XXX,XXX$XXX,XXX无租赁收入
A: ADU出租$X,XXX$XX,XXX$XXX,XXX$XXX,XXXADU月租金$X,XXX
B: 1间卧室出租……………
C: 2间卧室出租……………
D: ADU+1间卧室出租……………
E: ADU+2间卧室出租……………

Headline takeaway

核心结论

<1–2 sentences: which scenario wins on cash flow, which wins on lifestyle, where the inflection points are>
<1-2句话：哪个场景现金流最优，哪个场景生活方式最优，转折点在哪里>

Sensitivity analysis

敏感性分析

  • If rates rise 1%: <impact>
  • If ADU rent comes in 20% lower: <impact>
  • If renovations overrun 30%: <impact>
  • If vacancy doubles to 12%: <impact>
  • 如果利率上升1%：<影响>
  • 如果ADU租金低20%：<影响>
  • 如果装修超支30%：<影响>
  • 如果空置率翻倍至12%：<影响>

Open questions

待解决问题

  • <what would change the recommendation>
  • <what to research next — composes with /deep-research>
undefined
  • <哪些因素会改变推荐结论>
  • <下一步需调研内容——可与/deep-research组合使用>
undefined

Step 6 — Archive

步骤6 — 归档

Save the scenario folder so future revisits work. The archive index lives in 
${MAKERSKILLS_CONFIG:-$HOME/.config/makerskills}/personal-cfo/archive/
(create the directory if missing). Never write archives inside the skill's own folder — skill installs and upgrades re-sync from source and wipe anything saved there. Migration: if this skill's folder contains an old 
references/scenarios-archive/
with user entries, move those files into the archive directory first.
Append a one-liner to 
<archive dir>/INDEX.md
(create if missing):
markdown
- 2026-06-26 — [<property nickname>](~/Documents/personal-cfo/<slug>-2026-06-26/) — <type> — <headline takeaway>
This compounds — when you're considering Property #2 a year later, you can reuse the model and grep past analyses for patterns.
保存场景文件夹，方便后续查看。归档索引位于
${MAKERSKILLS_CONFIG:-$HOME/.config/makerskills}/personal-cfo/archive/
（如目录不存在则创建）。切勿将归档内容保存至技能自身文件夹内——技能安装和升级会从源同步并清除其中保存的所有内容。**迁移说明：**如果本技能文件夹包含旧的
references/scenarios-archive/
目录及用户数据，请先将这些文件移至归档目录。
在
<archive dir>/INDEX.md
（如不存在则创建）中添加一行记录：
markdown
- 2026-06-26 — [<房产昵称>](~/Documents/personal-cfo/<slug>-2026-06-26/) — <类型> — <核心结论>
这样会逐步积累——当你一年后考虑第二套房产时，可以复用模型并搜索过往分析以寻找规律。

Step 7 — Surface + offer follow-ups

步骤7 — 展示结果并提供后续选项

  • Show the comparison table in chat
  • Tell the user the workdir path
  • Offer:
    • "Want to run 
      /deep-research
      on rental comps for the area to firm up the ADU and bedroom rent assumptions?"
    • "Want to formalize the buy/don't-buy decision through 
      /decide
      once the scenarios land?"
    • "Want to capture this analysis to 
      second-brain raw/
      as 
      note-house-<slug>.md
      ?"
    • "Want me to revisit in 30 days as more info comes in (loan rate locked, inspection done, etc.)?"
  • 在聊天中展示对比表格
  • 告知用户工作目录路径
  • 提供以下选项：
    • "是否要运行
      /deep-research
      调研该区域的租赁参考价，以确定ADU和卧室租金的合理假设？"
    • "场景建模完成后，是否要通过
      /decide
      正式确定购买/不购买的决策？"
    • "是否要将此分析结果保存至
      second-brain raw/
      ，命名为
      note-house-<slug>.md
      ？"
    • "是否要在30天后重新查看，获取更多信息（锁定贷款利率、完成房屋检查等）？"

Composes with

可组合使用的技能

  • decide
     — once scenarios are modeled, the buy / don't / negotiate decision goes through 
    /decide
    . Cash flow analysis is input, not the decision itself.
  • deep-research
     — for inputs that need market data: rental comps, mortgage rate trends, neighborhood trajectory, school ratings, comparable sales.
  • business-brainstorm
     — if the scenario tips into "this is a business" (e.g., short-term rental, multi-unit purchase, scaling to N properties), route there to pressure-test the business angle.
  • second-brain
     — capture analyses to 
    raw/note-house-<slug>.md
    so they live in the personal wiki and can be referenced later.
  • decide
     — 场景建模完成后，购买/不购买/谈判决策通过
    /decide
    执行。现金流分析是输入，而非决策本身。
  • deep-research
     — 用于获取需要市场数据的输入项：租赁参考价、抵押贷款利率趋势、社区发展前景、学校评级、可比房产售价。
  • business-brainstorm
     — 如果场景涉及“商业性质”（如短租、多单元购房、扩展至N套房产），可转至该技能测试商业可行性。
  • second-brain
     — 将分析结果保存至
    raw/note-house-<slug>.md
    ，使其存入个人知识库，方便后续参考。

Notes on quality

质量说明

  • Conservative assumptions by default. Default to higher vacancy (8% not 5%), lower appreciation (3% not 6%), 20% buffer on renovation estimates. Real estate optimism is the most reliable way to lose money.
  • Surface the sensitivity, not just the point estimate. A scenario that's positive only if everything goes right isn't actually positive.
  • Lifestyle is a real variable. "Living with 2 roommates" can be financially optimal AND a quality-of-life disaster. Note these tradeoffs in the report, even if they aren't quantified.
  • Tax calcs are starting points, not authoritative. This skill estimates; an accountant verifies. Flag this in the report.
  • The decision isn't here — the inputs to the decision are. This skill produces the model. 
    /decide
    makes the call.
  • 默认采用保守假设。默认更高的空置率（8%而非5%）、更低的增值率（3%而非6%）、装修预估预留20%缓冲。对房地产过于乐观是最可靠的亏钱方式。
  • 展示敏感性，而非仅单点估算。只有在一切顺利时才盈利的场景并非真正的盈利场景。
  • 生活方式是真实变量。“与2个室友同住”在财务上可能最优，但可能严重影响生活质量。即使无法量化，也要在报告中注明这些权衡。
  • 税务计算仅为起点，并非权威结论。本技能仅做估算；具体需由会计师核实。请在报告中注明这一点。
  • 决策不在此完成——仅提供决策输入。本技能生成模型，
    /decide
    做出决策。

Future templates (sketched in references/templates/)

未来模板（已在references/templates/中草拟）

  • refi.md
    — refinance scenarios
  • cash-flow.md
    — generic monthly budget
  • big-purchase.md
    — cash vs finance vs lease for big-ticket items
  • side-income.md
    — adding a side income stream
  • savings-what-if.md
    — investment what-ifs
v0.1 ships only 
house.md
fleshed out. Add others when the use case is real.
  • refi.md
    — 再融资场景
  • cash-flow.md
    — 通用月度预算
  • big-purchase.md
    — 大额物品的全款vs贷款vs租赁对比
  • side-income.md
    — 新增副业收入流
  • savings-what-if.md
    — 投资假设分析
v0.1版本仅完善了
house.md
模板。当有实际需求时再添加其他模板。