/personal-cfo — Personal financial scenario modeling

Step 1 — Pick the scenario type

/personal-cfo house

/personal-cfo refi

/personal-cfo cash-flow

/personal-cfo big-purchase

/personal-cfo side-income

/personal-cfo savings-what-if

references/templates/

Step 2 — Gather inputs

references/templates/house.md

• Purchase price
• Down payment (% or $)
• Mortgage rate + term (years)
• Property taxes (annual)
• HOA (monthly, if any)
• Homeowner's insurance (monthly)
• Closing costs (estimate)

• Day-1 renovations (line items with estimates — kitchen, bath, ADU buildout, etc.)
• Year-1 expected repairs
• Annual maintenance budget (rule of thumb: 1% of purchase price)

• ADU monthly rent estimate + vacancy assumption (typical: 5–8%)
• Bedroom 1 monthly rent + vacancy
• Bedroom 2 monthly rent + vacancy
• Utilities split assumption (who pays what)
• Property management cost (if not self-managing)

• Current monthly housing cost (rent or current mortgage)
• Combined household income
• Marginal tax bracket (for mortgage interest + rental income calcs)
• Time horizon for the analysis (typical: 5 yr, 10 yr, 30 yr)

Step 3 — Build the scenarios

Step 4 — Run the math

• Mortgage payment (P&I) — see

  references/calculators.md

  for the formula
• • Property tax / 12
• • HOA + Insurance + Utilities (owner-paid portion)
• − Gross rental income (rooms + ADU)
• × (1 − vacancy rate) for effective rental income
• − Property management fee (if applicable)
• = Net monthly housing cost (negative = positive cash flow)

• Sum of 12 months
• • One-time renovation costs (amortized over time horizon)
• − Tax savings (mortgage interest deduction + depreciation on rented portion)

• Equity build-up (mortgage paydown + appreciation assumption — default 3%/yr)
• Total cost of ownership at year 5 / 10 / 30
• Return on cash invested vs. alternative (e.g., S&P 500 at 7% real return)

Step 5 — Output the comparison table

~/Documents/personal-cfo/<scenario-slug>-<YYYY-MM-DD>/

• inputs.yaml

  — all the input numbers (so the analysis is rerunnable + auditable)

• report.md

  — the full analysis with assumptions called out

• comparison.md

  — side-by-side scenario table (the headline output)

comparison.md

template

# <Property nickname> — scenario comparison

**Date:** YYYY-MM-DD
**Property:** <address or nickname>
**Time horizon:** 10 years
**Key assumptions:** 3%/yr appreciation, 7% S&P alt return, 6% vacancy

| Scenario | Net monthly cost | Annual cost | 10-yr total | Equity @ 10yr | Notes |
|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---|
| Baseline | $X,XXX | $XX,XXX | $XXX,XXX | $XXX,XXX | No rental income |
| A: ADU | $X,XXX | $XX,XXX | $XXX,XXX | $XXX,XXX | $X,XXX/mo ADU rent |
| B: 1 BR | … | … | … | … | … |
| C: 2 BR | … | … | … | … | … |
| D: ADU + 1 BR | … | … | … | … | … |
| E: ADU + 2 BR | … | … | … | … | … |

## Headline takeaway
<1–2 sentences: which scenario wins on cash flow, which wins on lifestyle, where the inflection points are>

## Sensitivity analysis
- If rates rise 1%: <impact>
- If ADU rent comes in 20% lower: <impact>
- If renovations overrun 30%: <impact>
- If vacancy doubles to 12%: <impact>

## Open questions
- <what would change the recommendation>
- <what to research next — composes with /deep-research>

Step 6 — Archive

${MAKERSKILLS_CONFIG:-$HOME/.config/makerskills}/personal-cfo/archive/

references/scenarios-archive/

<archive dir>/INDEX.md

- 2026-06-26 — [<property nickname>](~/Documents/personal-cfo/<slug>-2026-06-26/) — <type> — <headline takeaway>

Step 7 — Surface + offer follow-ups

• Show the comparison table in chat
• Tell the user the workdir path
• Offer:
  • "Want to run

    /deep-research

    on rental comps for the area to firm up the ADU and bedroom rent assumptions?"
  • "Want to formalize the buy/don't-buy decision through

    /decide

    once the scenarios land?"
  • "Want to capture this analysis to

    second-brain raw/

    as

    note-house-<slug>.md

    ?"
  • "Want me to revisit in 30 days as more info comes in (loan rate locked, inspection done, etc.)?"

Composes with

• decide

  — once scenarios are modeled, the buy / don't / negotiate decision goes through

  /decide

  . Cash flow analysis is input, not the decision itself.

• deep-research

  — for inputs that need market data: rental comps, mortgage rate trends, neighborhood trajectory, school ratings, comparable sales.

• business-brainstorm

  — if the scenario tips into "this is a business" (e.g., short-term rental, multi-unit purchase, scaling to N properties), route there to pressure-test the business angle.

• second-brain

  — capture analyses to

  raw/note-house-<slug>.md

  so they live in the personal wiki and can be referenced later.

Notes on quality

• Conservative assumptions by default. Default to higher vacancy (8% not 5%), lower appreciation (3% not 6%), 20% buffer on renovation estimates. Real estate optimism is the most reliable way to lose money.
• Surface the sensitivity, not just the point estimate. A scenario that's positive only if everything goes right isn't actually positive.
• Lifestyle is a real variable. "Living with 2 roommates" can be financially optimal AND a quality-of-life disaster. Note these tradeoffs in the report, even if they aren't quantified.
• Tax calcs are starting points, not authoritative. This skill estimates; an accountant verifies. Flag this in the report.
• The decision isn't here — the inputs to the decision are. This skill produces the model.

  /decide

  makes the call.

Future templates (sketched in references/templates/)

• refi.md

  — refinance scenarios

• cash-flow.md

  — generic monthly budget

• big-purchase.md

  — cash vs finance vs lease for big-ticket items

• side-income.md

  — adding a side income stream

• savings-what-if.md

  — investment what-ifs

house.md