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Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data

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Sourcealsk1992/cloddsbot

Added on2026-02-21

NPX Install

npx skill4agent add alsk1992/cloddsbot research

SKILL.md Content

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Research Skill

Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.

Commands

Base Rate Lookup

/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent

Resolution Rules

/resolution [market-id]

Historical Analogs

/history similar to "Trump 2028"

Research Areas

Political Markets

Incumbent win rates by office type
Primary prediction accuracy
Polling vs outcome correlations
Electoral college patterns

Economic Markets

Fed rate decision patterns
Recession indicator accuracy
Inflation forecast track records
Employment report surprises

Sports/Events

Historical upset frequencies
Weather event base rates
Award show prediction accuracy

Examples

User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections

User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements

User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed

Output Format

🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS

Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection

Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)

Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose

Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)

Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report