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Research prediction markets - base rates, resolution rules, historical data
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Sourcealsk1992/cloddsbot
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Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.
Commands
Base Rate Lookup
/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedentResolution Rules
/resolution [market-id]Historical Analogs
/history similar to "Trump 2028"Research Areas
Political Markets
- Incumbent win rates by office type
- Primary prediction accuracy
- Polling vs outcome correlations
- Electoral college patterns
Economic Markets
- Fed rate decision patterns
- Recession indicator accuracy
- Inflation forecast track records
- Employment report surprises
Sports/Events
- Historical upset frequencies
- Weather event base rates
- Award show prediction accuracy
Examples
User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?"
→ Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980
→ Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections
User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?"
→ Explain FOMC resolution criteria
→ Show historical price action around announcements
User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?"
→ Find similar historical markets
→ Show when market consensus missed
Output Format
🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS
Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection
Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)
Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose
Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)
Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report