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Original

English

🇨🇳

Translation

Chinese

Research Skill

研究技能

Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.

帮助用户利用基准率、结算标准和历史类比研究市场。

Commands

命令

Base Rate Lookup

基准率查询

/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent

/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent

Resolution Rules

结算规则

/resolution [market-id]

/resolution [market-id]

Historical Analogs

历史类比

/history similar to "Trump 2028"

/history similar to "Trump 2028"

Research Areas

研究领域

Political Markets

政治市场

Incumbent win rates by office type
Primary prediction accuracy
Polling vs outcome correlations
Electoral college patterns

按职位类型划分的现任者胜率
初选预测准确率
民调与结果的相关性
选举人团模式

Economic Markets

经济市场

Fed rate decision patterns
Recession indicator accuracy
Inflation forecast track records
Employment report surprises

美联储利率决策模式
衰退指标准确率
通胀预测记录
就业报告意外情况

Sports/Events

体育/赛事

Historical upset frequencies
Weather event base rates
Award show prediction accuracy

历史爆冷频率
天气事件基准率
颁奖典礼预测准确率

Examples

示例

User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections

User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements

User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed

用户：“参议院现任议员连任失败的基准率是多少？” → 历史分析：自1980年以来为8.2% → 关键因素：支持率、丑闻、浪潮式选举

用户：“美联储会议的市场通常如何结算？” → 解释FOMC结算标准 → 展示公告前后的历史价格走势

用户：“之前有类似的市场预测错误的情况吗？” → 查找类似的历史市场 → 展示市场共识出错的情况

Output Format

输出格式

🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS

Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection

Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)

Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose

Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)

Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report

🔬 基准率分析

查询：参议院现任议员连任失败

历史比率：8.2%（1980年以来572人中47人失败）

关键因素：
• 支持率 < 45%：23%失败
• 重大丑闻：31%失败
• 浪潮式选举（反对党）：15%失败
• 首次任期现任者：12%失败

相关市场：
• Ted Cruz 2024：52¢（当前）
• Jon Tester 2024：38¢（当前）

来源：FEC数据，库克政治报告