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Original

English
🇨🇳

Translation

Chinese

Research Skill

研究技能

Help users research markets with base rates, resolution criteria, and historical analogies.
帮助用户利用基准率、结算标准和历史类比研究市场。

Commands

命令

Base Rate Lookup

基准率查询

/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent
/baserate incumbent senators losing
/baserate fed rate cuts when inflation below 3%
/baserate supreme court overturning precedent

Resolution Rules

结算规则

/resolution [market-id]
/resolution [market-id]

Historical Analogs

历史类比

/history similar to "Trump 2028"
/history similar to "Trump 2028"

Research Areas

研究领域

Political Markets

政治市场

  • Incumbent win rates by office type
  • Primary prediction accuracy
  • Polling vs outcome correlations
  • Electoral college patterns
  • 按职位类型划分的现任者胜率
  • 初选预测准确率
  • 民调与结果的相关性
  • 选举人团模式

Economic Markets

经济市场

  • Fed rate decision patterns
  • Recession indicator accuracy
  • Inflation forecast track records
  • Employment report surprises
  • 美联储利率决策模式
  • 衰退指标准确率
  • 通胀预测记录
  • 就业报告意外情况

Sports/Events

体育/赛事

  • Historical upset frequencies
  • Weather event base rates
  • Award show prediction accuracy
  • 历史爆冷频率
  • 天气事件基准率
  • 颁奖典礼预测准确率

Examples

示例

User: "What's the base rate for Senate incumbents losing?" → Historical analysis: 8.2% since 1980 → Key factors: approval rating, scandals, wave elections
User: "How does the market usually resolve for Fed meetings?" → Explain FOMC resolution criteria → Show historical price action around announcements
User: "Has a market like this been wrong before?" → Find similar historical markets → Show when market consensus missed
用户：“参议院现任议员连任失败的基准率是多少？” → 历史分析：自1980年以来为8.2% → 关键因素：支持率、丑闻、浪潮式选举
用户：“美联储会议的市场通常如何结算？” → 解释FOMC结算标准 → 展示公告前后的历史价格走势
用户：“之前有类似的市场预测错误的情况吗？” → 查找类似的历史市场 → 展示市场共识出错的情况

Output Format

输出格式

🔬 BASE RATE ANALYSIS

Query: Senate incumbent losing reelection

Historical Rate: 8.2% (47/572 since 1980)

Key Factors:
• Approval < 45%: 23% lose
• Major scandal: 31% lose
• Wave election (opposite party): 15% lose
• First-term incumbent: 12% lose

Relevant Markets:
• Ted Cruz 2024: 52¢ (current)
• Jon Tester 2024: 38¢ (current)

Sources: FEC data, Cook Political Report
🔬 基准率分析

查询：参议院现任议员连任失败

历史比率：8.2%（1980年以来572人中47人失败）

关键因素：
• 支持率 < 45%：23%失败
• 重大丑闻：31%失败
• 浪潮式选举（反对党）：15%失败
• 首次任期现任者：12%失败

相关市场：
• Ted Cruz 2024：52¢（当前）
• Jon Tester 2024：38¢（当前）

来源：FEC数据，库克政治报告