assumption-mapping

Compare original and translation side by side

🇺🇸

Original

English

🇨🇳

Translation

Chinese

Assumption Mapping

Surface hidden assumptions and prioritize which ones to validate before building.

识别隐藏的假设，并在开发前优先确定需要验证的假设。

When to Trigger

触发场景

User is starting something new
User expresses uncertainty ("I think...", "probably...", "should work...")
User is about to invest significant effort
User mentions building without mentioning validation
User asks "what should I test first?"

用户正在启动新的项目
用户表达不确定态度（“我认为……”“可能……”“应该可行……”）
用户即将投入大量精力
用户提及开发但未提到验证
用户询问“我应该先测试什么？”

Quick Start

快速开始

Ask the user:

"What are you building and for whom?"
"What needs to be true for this to succeed?"

Then run the assumption extraction workflow below.

向用户询问：

“你正在开发什么产品，面向的用户是谁？”
“要让这个项目成功，哪些条件必须成立？”

然后执行以下假设提取工作流。

Core Workflow

核心工作流

Assumption Mapping Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Extract assumptions from conversation
- [ ] Step 2: Categorize by type
- [ ] Step 3: Score risk and uncertainty
- [ ] Step 4: Prioritize for validation
- [ ] Step 5: Suggest validation methods

Assumption Mapping 进度：
- [ ] 步骤1：从对话中提取假设
- [ ] 步骤2：按类型分类
- [ ] 步骤3：对风险和不确定程度打分
- [ ] 步骤4：确定验证优先级
- [ ] 步骤5：建议验证方法

Step 1: Extract Assumptions

步骤1：提取假设

Listen for assumption signals in what the user says:

Signal phrase	Hidden assumption
"Users want..."	Desirability assumption
"We can build..."	Feasibility assumption
"People will pay..."	Viability assumption
"It's easy to..."	Complexity assumption
"Everyone knows..."	Knowledge assumption
"They'll figure out..."	Usability assumption

Extract 5-10 assumptions. Frame each as a testable statement:

Bad: "Users like simple things" Good: "Users will complete onboarding in under 2 minutes without help"

留意用户话语中的假设提示语：

提示语	隐藏假设
“用户想要……”	吸引力假设
“我们可以开发……”	技术可行性假设
“人们会付费……”	商业可行性假设
“这很容易……”	复杂度假设
“所有人都知道……”	认知假设
“他们会弄明白……”	易用性假设

提取5-10个假设，每个假设都要以可测试的语句表述：

错误示例：“用户喜欢简单的东西” 正确示例：“用户无需帮助就能在2分钟内完成注册流程”

Step 2: Categorize Assumptions

步骤2：假设分类

Assign each assumption to one category:

Category	Question it answers
Desirability	Do people want this?
Feasibility	Can we build this?
Viability	Can this sustain itself?
Usability	Can people use this?
Ethical	Should we build this?

将每个假设归入以下类别之一：

类别	要回答的问题
吸引力	用户想要这个吗？
技术可行性	我们能开发出这个吗？
商业可行性	这个项目能持续运营吗？
易用性	用户能使用这个吗？
伦理合理性	我们应该开发这个吗？

Step 3: Score Each Assumption

步骤3：为每个假设打分

Rate each assumption on two dimensions (1-5 scale):

Impact: If wrong, how badly does it hurt the project?

1 = Minor inconvenience
5 = Project fails completely

Uncertainty: How confident are we this is true?

1 = We have strong evidence
5 = Pure guess

从两个维度对每个假设打分（1-5分制）：

影响程度：如果假设错误，会对项目造成多大伤害？

1分 = 轻微不便
5分 = 项目彻底失败

不确定程度：我们对这个假设的真实性有多有信心？

1分 = 我们有充分证据
5分 = 纯粹猜测

Step 4: Prioritize

步骤4：确定优先级

Create a 2x2 priority matrix:

                    HIGH IMPACT
                         │
     ┌───────────────────┼───────────────────┐
     │                   │                   │
     │   VALIDATE LATER  │  VALIDATE FIRST   │
     │   (Low risk)      │  (Critical)       │
     │                   │                   │
LOW  ├───────────────────┼───────────────────┤ HIGH
UNCERTAINTY              │              UNCERTAINTY
     │                   │                   │
     │   SKIP            │  MONITOR          │
     │   (Safe)          │  (Watch for       │
     │                   │   signals)        │
     │                   │                   │
     └───────────────────┼───────────────────┘
                         │
                    LOW IMPACT

Top-right quadrant = validate before building

创建一个2x2优先级矩阵：

                    高影响
                         │
     ┌───────────────────┼───────────────────┐
     │                   │                   │
     │   稍后验证        │  优先验证         │
     │   (低风险)        │  (关键)           │
     │                   │                   │
低不确定度 ├───────────────────┼───────────────────┤ 高不确定度
                         │
     │                   │                   │
     │   跳过            │  监控             │
     │   (安全)          │  (留意相关信号)    │
     │                   │                   │
     └───────────────────┼───────────────────┘
                         │
                    低影响

右上角象限 = 开发前必须验证

Step 5: Suggest Validation Methods

步骤5：建议验证方法

For each critical assumption, suggest a lightweight validation:

Assumption type	Fast validation (hours)	Deeper validation (days)
Desirability	5 user interviews	Landing page test
Feasibility	Technical spike	Prototype
Viability	Competitor pricing research	Willingness-to-pay interviews
Usability	3-person hallway test	Usability study

See references/validation-methods.md for detailed methods.

针对每个关键假设，建议轻量级的验证方式：

假设类型	快速验证（数小时）	深度验证（数天）
吸引力	5次用户访谈	着陆页测试
技术可行性	技术调研（Technical spike）	原型开发
商业可行性	竞品定价调研	付费意愿访谈
易用性	3人走廊测试	可用性研究

详细方法请参考 references/validation-methods.md。

Output Template

输出模板

Automatically save the output to
design/03-assumption-mapping.md
using the Write tool while presenting findings in this format:

markdown

undefined

使用Write工具自动将输出保存到
design/03-assumption-mapping.md
，并以以下格式呈现结果：

markdown

undefined

Assumption Map for [Project Name]

Critical Assumptions (Validate First)

#	Assumption	Type	Impact	Uncertainty	Suggested Test
1	[statement]	[type]	[1-5]	[1-5]	[method]

#	Assumption	Type	Impact	Uncertainty	Suggested Test
1	[statement]	[type]	[1-5]	[1-5]	[method]

Secondary Assumptions (Validate Later)

[Same table format]

Safe Assumptions (Monitor)

[Bulleted list]

Recommended Next Steps

[First validation to run]
[Second validation to run]

undefined

[First validation to run]
[Second validation to run]

undefined

Adaptive Behavior

适配行为

If user is new to assumption mapping:

Explain briefly why we do this (1 sentence)
Guide them through extraction with examples
Keep the output simple

If user is familiar:

Skip explanations
Jump to extraction
Offer the full matrix output

Gauge familiarity by asking: "Have you mapped assumptions before, or should I walk you through it?"

如果用户不了解Assumption Mapping：

用一句话简要解释我们为什么要这么做
通过示例引导用户完成假设提取
保持输出简洁

如果用户熟悉Assumption Mapping：

跳过解释部分
直接进入假设提取环节
提供完整的矩阵输出

通过以下问题判断用户的熟悉程度：“你之前做过假设映射吗？还是需要我带你一步步操作？”

Handoff

后续建议

Suggest next steps:

"Use this map to prioritize validation tests before full development. Want to proceed with
/solution-scoping
or test critical assumptions first?"

Note: File is automatically saved to

design/03-assumption-mapping.md

for context preservation.

建议下一步行动：

“使用这份映射表优先安排验证测试，再进行全面开发。你想继续进行
/solution-scoping
（方案范围界定），还是先测试关键假设？”

注意： 文件会自动保存到

design/03-assumption-mapping.md

，以便保留上下文信息。

Integration Points

集成点

This skill works well before:

```
problem-framing
```
— if problem isn't clear yet
```
validation
```
— to test the critical assumptions identified here
```
ideation
```
— to generate solutions once assumptions are validated

该方法适用于以下环节之前：

```
problem-framing
```
（问题界定）—— 如果问题尚不清晰
```
validation
```
（验证）—— 用于测试在此处识别出的关键假设
```
ideation
```
（创意构思）—— 在假设验证完成后生成解决方案

References

参考资料

references/validation-methods.md — Detailed validation techniques
references/examples.md — Complete worked examples

references/validation-methods.md —— 详细的验证技术
references/examples.md —— 完整的实践案例