Druckenmiller Strategy Synthesizer

Purpose

When to Use This Skill

• User asks "What's my overall conviction?" or "How should I be positioned?"
• User wants a unified view synthesizing breadth, uptrend, top risk, macro, and FTD signals
• User asks about Druckenmiller-style portfolio positioning
• User requests strategy synthesis after running individual analysis skills
• User asks "Should I increase or decrease exposure?"
• User wants pattern classification (policy pivot, distortion, contrarian, wait)

• 「総合的な市場判断は？」「今のポジショニングは？」
• ブレッドス、アップトレンド、天井リスク、マクロの統合判断
• 「エクスポージャーを増やすべき？減らすべき？」
• 「ドラッケンミラー分析を実行して」
• 個別スキル実行後の戦略統合レポート

Input Requirements

Required Skills (5)

market_breadth_

uptrend_analysis_

market_top_

macro_regime_

ftd_detector_

Optional Skills (3)

vcp_screener_

theme_detector_

canslim_screener_

reports/

Execution Workflow

Phase 1: Verify Prerequisites

reports/

Phase 2: Execute Strategy Synthesizer

python3 skills/stanley-druckenmiller-investment/scripts/strategy_synthesizer.py \
  --reports-dir reports/ \
  --output-dir reports/ \
  --max-age 72

1. Load and validate all upstream skill JSON reports
2. Extract normalized signals from each skill
3. Calculate 7 component scores (weighted 0-100)
4. Compute composite conviction score
5. Classify into one of 4 Druckenmiller patterns
6. Generate target allocation and position sizing
7. Output JSON and Markdown reports

Phase 3: Present Results

• Conviction score and zone
• Detected pattern and match strength
• Strongest and weakest components
• Target allocation (equity/bonds/alternatives/cash)
• Position sizing parameters
• Relevant Druckenmiller principle

Phase 4: Provide Druckenmiller Context

• High conviction: Emphasize concentration and "fat pitch" principles
• Low conviction: Emphasize capital preservation and patience
• Pattern-specific: Apply relevant case study from

  references/case-studies.md

7-Component Scoring System

4 Pattern Classifications

Conviction Zone Mapping

Output Files

• druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json

  — Structured analysis data

• druckenmiller_strategy_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md

  — Human-readable report

API Requirements

Reference Documents

references/investment-philosophy.md

• Core Druckenmiller principles: concentration, capital preservation, 18-month horizon
• Quantitative rules: daily vol targets, max position sizing
• Load when providing philosophical context for conviction assessment

references/market-analysis-guide.md

• Signal-to-action mapping framework
• Macro regime interpretation for allocation decisions
• Load when explaining component scores or allocation rationale

references/case-studies.md

• Historical examples: 1992 GBP, 2000 tech bubble, 2008 crisis
• Pattern classification examples with actual market conditions
• Load when user asks about historical parallels

references/conviction_matrix.md

• Quantitative signal-to-action mapping tables
• Market Top Zone x Macro Regime matrix
• Load when user needs precise exposure numbers for specific signal combinations

When to Load References

• First use: Load

  investment-philosophy.md

  for framework understanding
• Allocation questions: Load

  market-analysis-guide.md

  +

  conviction_matrix.md

• Historical context: Load

  case-studies.md

• Regular execution: References not needed — script handles scoring

Relationship to Other Skills