Polymarket Prediction Markets

Browse, analyze, and trade on Polymarket — the world's largest prediction market platform on Polygon. Market prices represent crowd-implied probabilities (0.0-1.0 = 0%-100%) of real-world event outcomes.

Uses the official Polymarket Rust CLI for all operations.

Overview

What you can do:

📊 Market Discovery - Browse active markets by volume, category, or recency
💰 Price Analysis - Get live probabilities, spreads, and liquidity depth
📈 Position Tracking - Monitor open positions with PnL
🔄 Trading - Place limit/market orders, manage positions
🔧 CTF Operations - Split, merge, and redeem conditional tokens on-chain
✅ Approvals - Manage contract approvals for trading
🌉 Bridge Deposits - Cross-chain deposits from EVM, Solana, Bitcoin

Authentication: Market data is public (no auth). Trading and on-chain operations require wallet configuration via

polymarket wallet

commands.

Setup & Configuration

1. Install the Polymarket CLI

The skill installer automatically installs the binary via:

bash

curl -sSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli/main/install.sh | sh

Or install manually:

Homebrew (macOS/Linux):

brew tap Polymarket/polymarket-cli && brew install polymarket

Build from source:

git clone https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli && cd polymarket-cli && cargo install --path .

2. Configure Your Wallet

Option A: Import existing private key

bash

polymarket wallet import 0xYOUR_PRIVATE_KEY

Option B: Create new wallet

bash

polymarket wallet create

Option C: Use environment variable

bash

export POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY=0xYOUR_PRIVATE_KEY

The configuration is stored at

~/.config/polymarket/config.json

json

{
  "private_key": "0x...",
  "chain_id": 137,
  "signature_type": "proxy"
}

⚠️ IMPORTANT - No Agent Wallet Integration:

This skill does NOT support agent-managed wallets (like Privy or other embedded wallet systems). You must provide your own Ethereum/Polygon private key that you control directly. The agent cannot access or export wallet keys on your behalf.

Why? The Polymarket CLI requires direct private key access to sign transactions. For security, this skill does not integrate with any wallet abstraction layers.

3. Set Contract Approvals (One-Time Setup)

Before trading, approve Polymarket contracts for USDC and CTF tokens:

Check approval status:

polymarket_check_approvals()

Set all approvals (requires MATIC for gas):

polymarket_set_approvals()

This sends 6 on-chain transactions and only needs to be done once per wallet.

Tool Reference

Market Discovery Tools (6) — No Auth Required

Tool	Purpose	Required Params	Optional Params
`polymarket_markets`	Browse/filter markets to get valid slugs	(none)	`status` (active/closed/all), `sort` (volume/liquidity/created_at), `limit` , `offset`
`polymarket_price`	Get live probability + token IDs	`market_id` (slug or condition ID)	(none)
`polymarket_event`	Get all sub-markets for an event	`event_id`	(none)
`polymarket_book`	Check orderbook depth & spread	`token_id` (from price)	(none)
`polymarket_tags`	List all market categories	(none)	(none)
`polymarket_leaderboard`	Top traders by profit	(none)	`period` (week/month/year/all), `order_by` (pnl/volume/trades), `limit`

Trading Tools (8) — Require Wallet Configuration

Tool	Purpose	Required Params	Notes
`polymarket_place_limit_order`	Place GTC limit order	`token_id` , `side` (buy/sell), `price` (0.01-0.99), `size` (shares)	Optional: `post_only` (maker-only)
`polymarket_place_market_order`	Place FOK market order	`token_id` , `side` , `amount` ($ for BUY, shares for SELL)	Optional: `price` (slippage limit)
`polymarket_get_positions`	View open positions + PnL	`address` (wallet address)	—
`polymarket_get_balances`	Check USDC balance	(none)	—
`polymarket_get_orders`	View open orders	(none)	Optional: `market` filter
`polymarket_get_trades`	Trade history	(none)	Optional: `limit` (default 50)
`polymarket_cancel_order`	Cancel specific order	`order_id`	—
`polymarket_cancel_all_orders`	Cancel ALL open orders	(none)	⚠️ Use with caution

Contract Approval Tools (2) — One-Time Setup

Tool	Purpose	Notes
`polymarket_check_approvals`	Check ERC-20/ERC-1155 approval status	Optional: `address` param
`polymarket_set_approvals`	Approve all contracts for trading	Sends 6 on-chain txs, requires MATIC gas

CTF Token Operation Tools (3) — On-Chain Operations

Tool	Purpose	Required Params	Notes
`polymarket_ctf_split`	Split USDC into outcome tokens	`condition_id` (0x...), `amount` (USDC)	Requires MATIC for gas
`polymarket_ctf_merge`	Merge tokens back to USDC	`condition_id` , `amount`	Must hold BOTH outcome tokens
`polymarket_ctf_redeem`	Redeem winning tokens after resolution	`condition_id`	Only for resolved markets

Bridge Deposit Tools (2) — Cross-Chain Deposits

Tool	Purpose	Required Params	Notes
`polymarket_bridge_deposit`	Get deposit addresses for bridging	`address` (Polygon destination)	Supports EVM, Solana, Bitcoin
`polymarket_bridge_status`	Check deposit status	`deposit_address`	Shows pending/completed deposits

Step-by-Step Workflows

Workflow 1: Check Event Probability (Read-Only)

User asks: "What are the odds Trump wins the 2024 election?"

Step 1: Find the market

polymarket_markets(status="active", sort="volume", limit=20)

Result: Returns list with exact slugs:

json

{
  "slug": "will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election",
  "question": "Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?",
  "outcomes": ["Yes", "No"]
}

Step 2: Get live probability

polymarket_price(market_id="will-donald-trump-win-the-2024-us-presidential-election")

Result: Returns current probability (e.g., 0.62 = 62% chance)

Workflow 2: Deep Market Analysis

User asks: "How liquid is the Bitcoin $100K market?"

Step 1: Discover market

polymarket_markets(status="active", sort="volume", limit=10)

Step 2: Get price + token ID

polymarket_price(market_id="<exact-slug-from-step-1>")

Result: Returns

clobTokenIds

array (e.g.,

["123456", "789012"]

for Yes/No)

Step 3: Check orderbook depth

polymarket_book(token_id="123456")

Result: Returns bid/ask levels, spread, liquidity depth

Workflow 3: Place a Trade

User asks: "Buy $100 of Yes shares at 65%"

Prerequisites:

Wallet configured:
```
polymarket wallet import 0x...
```
Approvals set:
```
polymarket_set_approvals()
```

Step 1: Find market + get token ID

polymarket_price(market_id="<exact-slug>")

Step 2: Place limit order

polymarket_place_limit_order(
  token_id="123456",
  side="buy",
  price=0.65,
  size=153.85,  # $100 / 0.65
  post_only=false
)

Alternative: Market order (instant execution)

polymarket_place_market_order(
  token_id="123456",
  side="buy",
  amount=100,  # $100 to spend
  price=0.70   # worst acceptable price (slippage protection)
)

Workflow 4: Split Collateral into Shares (On-Chain)

User asks: "Convert $50 USDC into Yes/No shares for a market"

Prerequisites:

Wallet configured and funded with USDC + MATIC (gas)
Approvals set

Step 1: Get condition ID from market

polymarket_price(market_id="<market-slug>")

Result: Extract

conditionId

condition_id

from response

Step 2: Split collateral

polymarket_ctf_split(
  condition_id="0xABC123...",
  amount=50
)

Result: Transaction hash, you now hold 50 Yes + 50 No shares

Later: Merge back to USDC (if holding both):

polymarket_ctf_merge(
  condition_id="0xABC123...",
  amount=50
)

Workflow 5: Redeem Winning Position

User asks: "Market resolved, redeem my winning tokens"

Step 1: Check position

polymarket_get_positions(address="0xYOUR_ADDRESS")

Step 2: Redeem (requires resolved market)

polymarket_ctf_redeem(condition_id="0xABC123...")

Result: Winning tokens converted to USDC (1 token = $1)

Workflow 6: Bridge Deposits from Other Chains

User asks: "How do I deposit USDC from Ethereum mainnet?"

Step 1: Get deposit addresses

polymarket_bridge_deposit(address="0xYOUR_POLYGON_ADDRESS")

Result: Deposit addresses for EVM chains, Solana, Bitcoin

Step 2: Send assets to the provided deposit address (via wallet)

Step 3: Monitor status

polymarket_bridge_status(deposit_address="<address-from-step-1>")

Result: Shows pending/completed deposits

Interpreting Prices

Polymarket prices = probabilities. Each share pays $1 if the outcome occurs.

Price Range	Interpretation
$0.90-$1.00	Near-certain — strong consensus
$0.70-$0.89	Strong consensus — likely to happen
$0.50-$0.69	Lean yes, significant uncertainty
$0.30-$0.49	Lean no, but uncertain
$0.01-$0.29	Unlikely — market thinks probably not

Spread & Liquidity Analysis

Spread	Meaning
< $0.02	Tight — reliable price signal, high confidence
$0.02-$0.05	Normal — decent liquidity
$0.05-$0.10	Wide — lower confidence, less liquid
> $0.10	Very wide — unreliable, thin market

Check

polymarket_book

to see actual depth. A tight spread with shallow depth can still be unreliable.

Multi-Outcome & Negative Risk Markets

Binary markets: Yes/No — prices sum to ~$1.00
Multi-outcome: 3+ outcomes (e.g. "Who wins?") — all outcomes sum to ~$1.00
Negative risk (
neg_risk=true
): Market uses a special mechanism where shares are minted as a group. Prices still represent probabilities.

Always iterate all outcomes — never hardcode Yes/No.

Common Patterns

Sentiment check: Prediction prices as leading indicators for crypto/political events
Event risk assessment: Combine prediction market odds with crypto price data for risk analysis
Contrarian signals: Extreme probabilities ($0.95+) with declining volume may indicate complacency
Smart money tracking: Leaderboard reveals top traders and their performance

Troubleshooting

CLI Installation Issues

Error: "Polymarket CLI not found"

Install via:

curl -sSL https://raw.githubusercontent.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli/main/install.sh | sh

Or use Homebrew:

brew tap Polymarket/polymarket-cli && brew install polymarket

Verify installation:
```
polymarket --version
```

Wallet Configuration Issues

Error: "Failed to derive credentials" or "No private key configured"

Import your private key:
```
polymarket wallet import 0xYOUR_KEY
```

Or use environment variable:

export POLYMARKET_PRIVATE_KEY=0xYOUR_KEY

Check configuration:
```
polymarket wallet show
```

Trading Errors

Error	Cause	Solution
"Insufficient allowance"	Contracts not approved	Run `polymarket_set_approvals()`
"Insufficient balance"	Not enough USDC	Deposit USDC to your wallet
"Order failed"	Invalid price/size	Check token_id is correct, price is 0.01-0.99
"Transaction failed" (CTF ops)	Out of MATIC for gas	Add MATIC to your Polygon wallet

Market Discovery Issues

Error	Cause	Solution
"Market not found"	Slug typo or market doesn't exist	Use `polymarket_markets()` to get exact slug
Empty results	Too restrictive filters	Broaden search criteria

On-Chain Operation Issues

Error: "Insufficient funds for gas"

CTF operations (split/merge/redeem) and approvals require MATIC on Polygon
Get MATIC: Bridge from other chains or use faucets for testnet

Error: "Cannot merge - insufficient balance"

Merging requires holding BOTH outcome tokens in equal amounts

Check your positions:

polymarket_get_positions(address="0xYOUR_ADDRESS")

Security Best Practices

🔒 Private Key Management:

Never share your private key
Store config file (
```
~/.config/polymarket/config.json
```
) securely
Use environment variables for temporary sessions
Consider using a dedicated trading wallet with limited funds

⚠️ Trading Safety:

Start with small amounts to test the integration
Always verify market details before placing orders
Use
```
post_only
```
for limit orders to avoid unexpected fills
Set slippage limits on market orders via the
```
price
```
parameter

🔐 On-Chain Operations:

Verify condition IDs carefully before CTF operations
Keep some MATIC for gas fees (CTF ops typically cost ~$0.10-0.50)
Test approvals on small amounts first

CLI Command Reference

For advanced users who want to use the CLI directly:

Market discovery:

```
polymarket markets list --limit 10
```
```
polymarket markets search "bitcoin"
```
```
polymarket markets get <slug>
```

Trading:

polymarket clob create-order --token <id> --side buy --price 0.5 --size 10

```
polymarket clob orders
```

polymarket clob balance --asset-type collateral

CTF operations:

polymarket ctf split --condition 0x... --amount 10

polymarket ctf merge --condition 0x... --amount 10

```
polymarket ctf redeem --condition 0x...
```

Approvals:

```
polymarket approve check
```
```
polymarket approve set
```

JSON output (for scripting):

Add

-o json

to any command:

polymarket -o json markets list --limit 5

See full CLI docs: https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli

Additional Resources

Official CLI Repo: https://github.com/Polymarket/polymarket-cli
Polymarket Platform: https://polymarket.com
Documentation: https://docs.polymarket.com
Discord: https://discord.gg/polymarket

polymarket

NPX Install

Tags

SKILL.md Content

Polymarket Prediction Markets

Overview

Setup & Configuration

1. Install the Polymarket CLI

2. Configure Your Wallet

3. Set Contract Approvals (One-Time Setup)

Tool Reference

Market Discovery Tools (6) — No Auth Required

Trading Tools (8) — Require Wallet Configuration

Contract Approval Tools (2) — One-Time Setup

CTF Token Operation Tools (3) — On-Chain Operations

Bridge Deposit Tools (2) — Cross-Chain Deposits

Step-by-Step Workflows

Workflow 1: Check Event Probability (Read-Only)

Workflow 2: Deep Market Analysis

Workflow 3: Place a Trade

Workflow 4: Split Collateral into Shares (On-Chain)

Workflow 5: Redeem Winning Position

Workflow 6: Bridge Deposits from Other Chains

Interpreting Prices

Spread & Liquidity Analysis

Multi-Outcome & Negative Risk Markets

Common Patterns

Troubleshooting

CLI Installation Issues

Wallet Configuration Issues

Trading Errors

Market Discovery Issues

On-Chain Operation Issues

Security Best Practices

CLI Command Reference

Additional Resources