ibd-distribution-day-monitor

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Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for QQQ/SPY (close down at least 0.2% on higher volume), track 25-session expiration and 5% invalidation, count d5/d15/d25 clusters, classify market risk (NORMAL/CAUTION/HIGH/SEVERE), and emit TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendations. Use after market close, before TQQQ exposure changes, or as input to FTD/market-state frameworks. Does not execute trades.

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Sourcetradermonty/claude-trading-skills
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NPX Install

npx skill4agent add tradermonty/claude-trading-skills ibd-distribution-day-monitor

Tags

Translated version includes tags in frontmatter
ibd-distribution-daymarket-risk-assessmentqqq-spy-analysistqqq-exposure-managementfinancial-data-processing

SKILL.md Content

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IBD Distribution Day Monitor

Purpose

Detect IBD-style Distribution Days for major market ETFs (QQQ as Nasdaq proxy, SPY as S&P 500 proxy) and produce a daily market deterioration signal plus a TQQQ/QQQ exposure recommendation. Designed for post-market review.

When to Use

Invoke this skill:
  • Daily after the US market close.
  • Before increasing TQQQ exposure or rebalancing leveraged positions.
  • When evaluating whether an uptrend is becoming vulnerable to a correction.
  • As an upstream input to FTD (Follow-Through Day) detection or other market-state frameworks.
Do NOT use this skill to:
  • Execute trades or modify orders.
  • Generate discretionary market predictions outside of the IBD ruleset.

Inputs

  • Symbols (default: QQQ, SPY) and lookback (default 80 trading sessions).
  • Optional 
    --as-of YYYY-MM-DD
    for backtesting against a historical session.
  • Strategy context: instrument (TQQQ or QQQ), current exposure %, base trailing stop %.
  • FMP API key via 
    --api-key
    , 
    config.data.api_key
    , or 
    FMP_API_KEY
    env var (in that priority order).

Core Rules

A Distribution Day is detected when:
  1. Today's close is at least 0.2% below yesterday's close.
  2. Today's volume is greater than yesterday's volume.
A Distribution Day is removed from the active count when either:
  • More than 25 trading sessions have elapsed since the DD.
  • The index has gained 5% from the DD close (using post-DD high by default; configurable to close-source).
Today's DD is never invalidated immediately because there are no post-DD sessions to evaluate the 5% gain against.

Counting Conventions

  • d5_count
    / 
    d15_count
    / 
    d25_count
    count active records with 
    age_sessions <= N
    .
  • This means N+1 sessions are inspected (age 0..N inclusive). Reports therefore say "within N elapsed sessions" rather than "直近 N 取引日" to avoid ambiguity.

Risk Classification

RiskTrigger
NORMAL
d25 <= 2
CAUTION
d25 >= 3
HIGH
d25 >= 5
OR 
d15 >= 3
OR 
d5 >= 2
SEVERE
d25 >= 6
OR 
d15 >= 4
OR (
market_below_21ema_or_50ma
AND 
d25 >= 5
)
When both QQQ and SPY are loaded, QQQ-weighted overall logic applies (TQQQ-aware): a single SEVERE escalates to SEVERE; QQQ HIGH escalates to overall HIGH; QQQ NORMAL + SPY HIGH still escalates to HIGH (broad-market spillover).

TQQQ Exposure Policy

RiskActionTarget ExposureTrailing Stop
NORMALHOLD_OR_FOLLOW_BASE_STRATEGY100%base
CAUTIONAVOID_NEW_ADDS75%min(base, 7%)
HIGHREDUCE_EXPOSURE50%min(base, 5%)
SEVERECLOSE_TQQQ_OR_HEDGE25%min(base, 3%)
QQQ uses a less aggressive policy (HIGH=75%, SEVERE=50%) since it lacks 3x leverage.

Workflow

  1. Load OHLCV for the configured symbols via FMP (
    get_historical_prices
    ).
  2. Validate data quality; record skipped sessions in audit.
  3. Rebase via 
    prepare_effective_history
    so 
    effective_history[0]
    is the evaluation session.
  4. Detect raw Distribution Days; enrich with 
    high_since
    , invalidation event, and status.
  5. Count 
    d5
    / 
    d15
    / 
    d25
    active records.
  6. Compute 21EMA and 50SMA filters; flag 
    market_below_21ema_or_50ma
    (None if data insufficient).
  7. Classify each index, then combine using QQQ-weighted policy.
  8. Generate portfolio action for the configured instrument.
  9. Write JSON + Markdown reports to 
    --output-dir
    with API keys redacted.

Outputs

Saved to 
reports/
(or 
--output-dir
):
  • ibd_distribution_day_monitor_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.json
  • ibd_distribution_day_monitor_YYYY-MM-DD_HHMMSS.md
JSON is UTF-8 with 
ensure_ascii=False
(Japanese explanations preserved). Sensitive keys (
api_key
, 
fmp_api_key
, 
token
, etc.) are redacted automatically.

Operating Principles

  • Do not override the IBD rule definitions unless 
    config/default.yaml
    is changed deliberately.
  • Always explain which dates contributed to the active count.
  • Treat missing or unreliable volume data as a warning (audit_flag), not as a Distribution Day.
  • Do not place trades. The portfolio action is a risk-management suggestion, not an execution instruction.

CLI

bash
python3 skills/ibd-distribution-day-monitor/scripts/ibd_monitor.py \
  --symbols QQQ,SPY \
  --lookback-days 80 \
  --instrument TQQQ \
  --current-exposure 100 \
  --base-trailing-stop 10 \
  --output-dir reports/

API Requirements

FMP API key required. Free tier (250 calls/day) is sufficient for daily QQQ + SPY runs.

Related Skills

  • ftd-detector
    : Bottom confirmation via Follow-Through Days (counterpart of this top-side signal).
  • market-top-detector
    : Composite 0-100 top probability score using O'Neil distribution + other components.
  • position-sizer
    : Convert risk-management recommendations into share counts.