analyze-investment-clock-rotation

<essential_principles>

<principle name="quadrant_model"> **Core of the Four-Quadrant Model**

The Investment Clock simplifies market conditions into four quadrants:

          Supportive Financial Conditions (Loose)
                ↑
       Q3      │      Q1
     Recovery Transition │   Ideal Quadrant
  ────────────┼────────────→ Profit Growth
       Q4      │      Q2
     Worst Quadrant │   Mixed Prospects
                │
          Unsupportive Financial Conditions (Tight)

Quadrant	Profit	Financial Conditions	Implication	Allocation Recommendation
Q1 Ideal Quadrant	↑	Supportive ↑	Risk Asset Friendly	Overweight, Tailwind Allocation
Q2 Mixed Prospects	↑	Unsupportive ↓	Valuation Pressure, Volatility	Volatility Management, Valuation Sensitivity
Q3 Recovery Transition	↓	Supportive ↑	Loose Policy Rescue, Fundamentals Unrecovered	Do Not Misjudge as a Full Bull Market
Q4 Worst Quadrant	↓	Unsupportive ↓	Risk Assets Vulnerable	Risk Control, Deleveraging

</principle> <principle name="axis_convention"> **Axis Convention (Important!)**

Investment Clock diagrams from different sources may have different axis definitions. This skill defaults to:

X-axis: Financial Conditions
- Left = Loose (Highly Supportive)
- Right = Tight (Low Support)
Y-axis: Earnings Growth
- Top = Positive Growth
- Bottom = Negative Growth

If your diagram uses a different definition, adjust

axis_mapping

and

clock_convention

in the input parameters. </principle>

<principle name="clock_hour"> **Clock Position Calculation**

Calculate the angle using

atan2(y, x)

, then convert to a 12-hour format:

12 o'clock: Top (Highest Profit, Neutral Financial Conditions)
3 o'clock: Right (Tightest Financial Conditions)
6 o'clock: Bottom (Lowest Profit)
9 o'clock: Left (Loosest Financial Conditions)

Rotation Direction:

Clockwise: Typical Business Cycle Path (Q1 → Q2 → Q4 → Q3 → Q1)
Counterclockwise: Policy Intervention or Atypical Events </principle>

<principle name="data_access"> **Data Acquisition Methods**

This skill uses data sources that do not require an API key:

FRED CSV:
```
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/fredgraph.csv?id={SERIES_ID}
```
- Financial Conditions: NFCI (Chicago Fed), STLFSI4 (St. Louis Fed)
- Profit Proxies: CP (Corporate Profits), GDP-related Indicators

Scripts are located in the

scripts/

directory and can be executed directly. </principle>

</essential_principles>

<objective> Implement Investment Clock Analysis:

Construct Coordinates: Calculate Z-scores for Earnings Growth and Financial Conditions from FRED data
Determine Quadrant: Identify the current quadrant
Calculate Position: Convert to 12-hour clock position
Analyze Rotation: Determine rotation direction and magnitude
Cycle Comparison: Compare with the previous cycle (Optional)

Output: Current Quadrant, Clock Position, Rotation Summary, Allocation Recommendation. </objective>

<quick_start>

Fastest Way: Run the Default Analysis

bash

cd skills/analyze-investment-clock-rotation
pip install pandas numpy requests  # First-time use
python scripts/investment_clock.py --quick

Sample Output:

json

{
  "as_of": "2026-01-15",
  "current_position": {
    "clock_hour": 10,
    "quadrant": "Q1_ideal",
    "earnings_growth": 0.052,
    "financial_conditions_zscore": -0.35
  },
  "interpretation": "Ideal Quadrant, Risk Assets in a Relative Tailwind"
}

Full Analysis:

bash

python scripts/investment_clock.py \
  --start 2022-01-01 \
  --end 2026-01-19 \
  --compare-cycle 2020-01-01 2022-12-31 \
  --output result.json

</quick_start>

<intake> What operation do you need to perform?

Quick Check - View the current Investment Clock position and quadrant
Full Analysis - Analyze rotation path and direction within a time interval
Cycle Comparison - Compare rotation characteristics with the previous cycle
Visualization Chart - Generate Investment Clock visualization chart
Methodology Learning - Understand the logic of the Investment Clock model

Please select or provide analysis parameters directly. </intake>

<routing> | Response | Action | |--------------------------------|----------------------------------------------------| | 1, "快速", "quick", "check" | Execute `python scripts/investment_clock.py --quick` | | 2, "完整", "分析", "full" | Read `workflows/analyze.md` and execute | | 3, "比較", "循環", "compare" | Read `workflows/compare-cycle.md` and execute | | 4, "視覺化", "chart", "plot" | Read `workflows/visualize.md` and execute | | 5, "學習", "方法論", "why" | Read `references/methodology.md` | | Provide parameters (e.g., date range) | Read `workflows/analyze.md` and execute with parameters |

After routing, read the corresponding file and execute. </routing>

<directory_structure>

analyze-investment-clock-rotation/
├── SKILL.md                           # This file (Router)
├── skill.yaml                         # Frontend Display Metadata
├── manifest.json                      # Skill Metadata
├── workflows/
│   ├── analyze.md                     # Full Analysis Workflow
│   ├── compare-cycle.md               # Cycle Comparison Workflow
│   └── visualize.md                   # Visualization Workflow
├── references/
│   ├── methodology.md                 # Investment Clock Methodology
│   ├── data-sources.md                # FRED Series Codes and Data Sources
│   └── input-schema.md                # Complete Input Parameter Definitions
├── templates/
│   ├── output-json.md                 # JSON Output Template
│   └── output-markdown.md             # Markdown Report Template
└── scripts/
    ├── investment_clock.py            # Main Analysis Script
    ├── fetch_data.py                  # Data Fetching Tool
    └── visualize.py                   # Visualization Plotting Tool

</directory_structure>

<reference_index>

Methodology: references/methodology.md

Investment Clock Concepts and History
Four-Quadrant Definitions and Allocation Implications
Rotation Direction Interpretation

Data Sources: references/data-sources.md

FRED Series Codes (Financial Conditions/Profit Proxies)
Data Frequency and Alignment Methods

Input Parameters: references/input-schema.md

Complete Parameter Definitions
Default Values and Recommended Ranges

</reference_index>

<workflows_index>

Workflow	Purpose	Usage Scenario
analyze.md	Full Analysis	Requires detailed quadrant and rotation analysis
compare-cycle.md	Cycle Comparison	Compare characteristics of different cycles
visualize.md	Generate Visualization Chart	Needs chart display
</workflows_index>

<templates_index>

Template	Purpose
output-json.md	JSON Output Structure Definition
output-markdown.md	Markdown Report Template
</templates_index>

<scripts_index>

Script	Command	Purpose
investment_clock.py	`--quick`	Quickly check current position
investment_clock.py	`--start DATE --end DATE`	Full Analysis
investment_clock.py	`--compare-cycle START END`	Cycle Comparison
fetch_data.py	`--series NFCI,CP`	Fetch FRED Data
visualize.py	`-i result.json -o chart.png`	Generate Visualization Chart
</scripts_index>

<input_schema_summary>

Core Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default Value	Description
market	string	US_EQUITY	Analysis Target
start_date	string	2022-01-01	Analysis Start Date
end_date	string	today	Analysis End Date
freq	string	weekly	Frequency (weekly/monthly)

Data Source Parameters

Parameter	Type	Description
earnings_series.source	string	fred / api / csv / manual
earnings_series.series_id	string	FRED Series ID (e.g., CP)
earnings_series.growth_method	string	yoy / qoq_annualized
financial_conditions_series.source	string	fred / api / csv
financial_conditions_series.series_id	string	NFCI / STLFSI4
financial_conditions_series.transform	string	level / zscore / inverse

Axis Parameters

Parameter	Type	Default Value	Description
axis_mapping.x	string	financial_conditions	X-axis Definition
axis_mapping.y	string	earnings_growth	Y-axis Definition
clock_convention.financial_loose_is_left	bool	true	Loose Conditions on Left

Complete parameter definitions can be found in

references/input-schema.md

</input_schema_summary>

<output_schema_summary>

json

{
  "skill": "analyze-investment-clock-rotation",
  "as_of": "2026-01-19",
  "market": "US_EQUITY",
  "current_state": {
    "clock_hour": 10,
    "quadrant": "Q1_ideal",
    "quadrant_name": "Ideal Quadrant",
    "x_value": -0.35,
    "y_value": 0.052
  },
  "rotation_summary": {
    "from_hour": 2,
    "to_hour": 10,
    "direction": "clockwise",
    "magnitude_degrees": 240
  },
  "interpretation": "Earnings growth is positive, financial conditions are relatively supportive, belonging to a quadrant favorable for risk assets"
}

Complete output structure can be found in

templates/output-json.md

. </output_schema_summary>

<success_criteria> Successful execution should produce:

Current Quadrant (Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4)
Clock Position (1-12 o'clock)
Earnings Growth Value and Financial Conditions Z-score
Rotation Direction (Clockwise/Counterclockwise)
Rotation Magnitude (Degrees)
Allocation Recommendation (Based on Quadrant)
Cycle Comparison Summary (If Enabled)
Visualization Chart (Optional, Output to
```
output/
```
Directory) </success_criteria>

analyze-investment-clock-rotation

NPX Install

Tags

SKILL.md Content (Chinese)