market-sizing

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Market Sizing

市场规模测算

TAM/SAM/SOM framework for estimating addressable market and validating opportunity size.

通过TAM/SAM/SOM框架评估可触达市场并验证机会规模。

Definitions

定义

Metric	Definition	Question It Answers
TAM	Total Addressable Market — everyone who could possibly buy	"What's the theoretical ceiling?"
SAM	Serviceable Addressable Market — segment you can actually reach	"What can we realistically target?"
SOM	Serviceable Obtainable Market — realistic share in 3 years	"What will we actually capture?"

+-------------------------------------------------------+
|                         TAM                            |
|  +---------------------------------------------------+ |
|  |                      SAM                           | |
|  |  +-----------------------------------------------+| |
|  |  |                   SOM                          || |
|  |  +-----------------------------------------------+| |
|  +---------------------------------------------------+ |
+-------------------------------------------------------+

指标	定义	解答的问题
TAM	总可触达市场（Total Addressable Market）——所有可能的购买群体	"理论上限是多少？"
SAM	可服务可触达市场（Serviceable Addressable Market）——企业实际能够触达的细分群体	"我们实际可以瞄准哪些群体？"
SOM	可服务可获得市场（Serviceable Obtainable Market）——3年内可实现的合理市场份额	"我们实际能占领多少市场？"

+-------------------------------------------------------+
|                         TAM                            |
|  +---------------------------------------------------+ |
|  |                      SAM                           | |
|  |  +-----------------------------------------------+| |
|  |  |                   SOM                          || |
|  |  +-----------------------------------------------+| |
|  +---------------------------------------------------+ |
+-------------------------------------------------------+

When to Use Top-Down vs. Bottom-Up

何时使用自上而下 vs 自下而上法

Method	Use When	Risk
Top-Down	Industry reports exist; investor pitch; quick estimate	Overestimates SOM
Bottom-Up	Sales capacity known; pricing validated; more credible	More work; requires assumptions
Both (recommended)	High-stakes decisions; fundraising; board decks	Cross-validate to build confidence

Always cross-validate both methods and reconcile within 20%. If they diverge by more than that, revisit your assumptions.

方法	适用场景	风险
自上而下法	有行业报告可用、准备投资者推介、快速估算	可能高估SOM
自下而上法	已知销售能力、定价已验证、需要更高可信度	工作量更大、依赖假设
两种方法结合（推荐）	高风险决策、融资、董事会汇报材料	交叉验证以提升可信度

始终交叉验证两种方法，确保结果差异在20%以内。如果差异超过该范围，请重新审视你的假设。

Quick Formulas

快速公式

Top-Down
  TAM = (# potential customers) × (annual value per customer)
  SAM = TAM × (% your solution can address)
  SOM = SAM × (realistic market share % in 3 years)

Bottom-Up
  SOM = (# customers you can acquire) × (average deal size)
  SAM = SOM / (your expected market share %)
  TAM = SAM / (your segment as % of total market)

Top-Down
  TAM = (# potential customers) × (annual value per customer)
  SAM = TAM × (% your solution can address)
  SOM = SAM × (realistic market share % in 3 years)

Bottom-Up
  SOM = (# customers you can acquire) × (average deal size)
  SAM = SOM / (your expected market share %)
  TAM = SAM / (your segment as % of total market)

Example: AI Code Review Tool

示例: AI Code Review Tool

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Market Sizing: AI Code Review Tool

市场规模测算: AI代码审查工具

Top-Down

自上而下法

TAM

Global developers: 28M
Using code review tools: 60% → 16.8M
Average annual spend: $300/developer
TAM = $5.04B

SAM

Enterprise only (>500 employees): 8M developers
Willing to pay premium: 40% → 3.2M
SAM = $960M

SOM

Sales capacity supports ~$15M ARR (Year 3)
Realistic market share: 2%
Unconstrained SOM = $960M × 2% = $19.2M
Constrained SOM = min($19.2M, $15M) = $15M

TAM

全球开发者: 28M
使用代码审查工具: 60% → 16.8M
平均年度花费: $300/developer
TAM = $5.04B

SAM

仅针对企业客户(>500名员工): 8M开发者
愿意支付溢价: 40% → 3.2M
SAM = $960M

SOM

销售能力支持第3年实现约$15M ARR(年度经常性收入)
合理市场份额: 2%
无约束SOM = $960M × 2% = $19.2M
约束后SOM = min($19.2M, $15M) = $15M

Bottom-Up

自下而上法

Target accounts Year 1: 50 enterprise deals
Average ACV: $100K
Year 1 ARR: $5M
Year 3 (3× growth): $15M ARR → SOM = $15M

第1年目标客户: 50个企业客户
平均ACV(年度合同价值): $100K
第1年ARR: $5M
第3年(3倍增长): $15M ARR → SOM = $15M

Reconciled SOM: $15M (confirmed by both methods)

调和后SOM: $15M(两种方法验证一致)

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SOM Constraint Model

SOM约束模型

Do not report an unconstrained SOM. Always apply real-world limits:

SOM constraints:
  Sales capacity:       supports $15M ARR max
  Competitive pressure: 5 strong incumbents → −20% market share
  Go-to-market reach:   70% of SAM reachable with current channels

Conservative SOM = min(
  SAM × target_share%,
  sales_capacity_ceiling,
  SAM × gtm_reach% × target_share%
)

请勿报告无约束的SOM。始终应用现实世界的限制条件:

SOM constraints:
  Sales capacity:       supports $15M ARR max
  Competitive pressure: 5 strong incumbents → −20% market share
  Go-to-market reach:   70% of SAM reachable with current channels

Conservative SOM = min(
  SAM × target_share%,
  sales_capacity_ceiling,
  SAM × gtm_reach% × target_share%
)

Confidence Levels

置信度等级

Confidence	Evidence Required
HIGH	Multiple corroborating sources, data < 2 years old
MEDIUM	Single authoritative source, 1-2 years old
LOW	Extrapolated, heavy assumptions, data > 2 years old

Always label each number with its confidence level in deliverables.

置信度	所需证据
高	多个相互佐证的数据源，数据时效性<2年
中	单一权威数据源，数据时效性1-2年
低	基于推断、依赖大量假设，数据时效性>2年

在交付成果中，务必为每个数据标注其置信度等级。

Common Mistakes

常见误区

Mistake	Correction
TAM = "everyone on earth"	Define a specific, bounded customer segment
SOM = 10% of a billion-dollar market	Apply actual sales capacity and GTM constraints
Single method only	Cross-validate top-down and bottom-up
Old data	Use sources < 2 years old; flag if older
Ignoring competition	SOM must account for incumbents' share

误区	修正方法
TAM = "全球所有人"	定义具体、有边界的客户细分群体
SOM = 十亿美元市场的10%	结合实际销售能力与上市触达约束
仅使用单一方法	交叉验证自上而下与自下而上法
使用过时数据	使用时效性<2年的数据源；若使用旧数据需标注
忽略竞争因素	SOM必须考虑现有竞争对手的市场份额

References

参考资料

TAM/SAM/SOM Rules — Calculation methods, SOM constraint model, cross-referencing
TAM/SAM/SOM Guide — Detailed guide with data source recommendations

TAM/SAM/SOM Rules — 测算方法、SOM约束模型、交叉验证
TAM/SAM/SOM Guide — 详细指南，含数据源推荐