Position Sizing Decision Skill

Data Dependencies and Pre-execution Conditions

wind-mcp-skill

wind-mcp-skill

# GitHub
npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

# Gitee Mirror (Domestic)
npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Skill Positioning

Function Overview

Application Scenarios

• Users have a trading direction in mind but don't know how large a position to take for a single trade.
• Multiple candidate trades exist simultaneously, requiring decisions on which to allocate large positions and which to allocate only trial positions.
• After market volatility increases, users want to recalibrate single-trade risk exposure.
• Teams want to unify position terminology and reduce "all-in" and arbitrary position increases.

Working Principles

1. Position size must be derived from acceptable risk, not directly inferred from subjective confidence.
2. Single-trade position decisions must consider underlying asset volatility, stop-loss distance, liquidity, and portfolio correlation simultaneously.
3. The higher the uncertainty, the more restrained the initial position should be; wait for subsequent verification before deciding whether to increase the position.
4. Position suggestions must be tied to specific plans; position figures without plans are meaningless.
5. The main text does not describe internal implementation methods, only outputs judgment basis and suggestions.

Execution Process

Step 1: Confirm Account Constraints and Risk Budget Caliber

• Whether it is centered on the maximum acceptable loss per single trade or total position exposure
• Whether the user has a conservative, balanced, or aggressive risk appetite
• How many trial attempts are allowed in the plan
• Whether there are industry, theme, or single-stock limits

Step 2: Identify Trade Type and Uncertainty Level

• Trend-confirmed trades can accept relatively more complete position expressions
• Event-driven trades need to pay more attention to gap and distortion risks
• Bottom-fishing, reversal, and left-side trial trades should significantly reduce the initial position weight
• Underlying assets with insufficient liquidity or excessive volatility should be given an additional discount

Step 3: Measure Volatility and Stop-Loss Distance

• Whether current price volatility is within the normal range
• If the planned stop-loss level is too far, whether the position needs to be reduced accordingly
• If the planned stop-loss level is too close, whether it is easy to be washed out by market noise
• Whether a more dispersed entry rhythm is needed to reduce point sensitivity

Step 4: Evaluate Portfolio Tolerance and Correlation

• Whether the current portfolio is already biased towards the same sector or style
• Whether the new trade will significantly increase correlation concentration
• Whether the current total position is already high, leading to reduced fault tolerance for new trades
• If there are existing positions with similar logic, whether the new position should be treated as "supplementary exposure" rather than an independent position

Step 5: Provide Initial Position and Subsequent Phased Framework

• Initial trial position
• Position expansion upper limit after condition verification

• Under what confirmation conditions position increases are allowed
• Under what adverse fluctuations additional positions must be stopped
• Whether it is suitable to enter the full position at once or must be phased

Step 6: Stress Test Whether the Position Can Be Executed

• If there is a gap at the opening, is the position still acceptable?
• If there are continuous adverse fluctuations, can both psychology and capital withstand it?
• If the initial position is stopped out immediately, will it disrupt subsequent execution discipline?
• If the market environment changes suddenly, can the position be quickly reduced?

Step 7: Finalize the Position Suggestion Draft

Output Structure

Position Sizing Decision Suggestion ({YYYY-MM-DD})

I. 30-Second Conclusion

• Trading Object: {Stock Name}
• Suggested Position Level: {Light / Medium / Relatively Heavy / Observation Only}
• Initial Position Suggestion: {Content}
• Position Expansion Conditions: {Content}
• Main Restriction Factor: {One sentence}

II. Position Suggestion Breakdown

III. Execution Framework

• Initial Position: {Content}
• Secondary Position Increase Conditions: {Content}
• Maximum Total Position Upper Limit: {Content}
• Conditions to Stop Additional Positions: {Content}

IV. Stress Test

• Adverse Scenario: {Content}
• Affordability Judgment: {Content}
• Response Actions: {Content}

V. Risk Warnings

• {Risk 1}
• {Risk 2}
• {Risk 3}

Quality Requirements

1. Position suggestions must explain the basis for formation, not just provide percentages.
2. Initial positions and total position upper limits must be distinguished.
3. Portfolio correlation and environmental constraints must be reflected, not just looking at individual stocks.
4. Explicitly downgrade positions for high-volatility or high-uncertainty trades.
5. The output should help control positions, not rationalize the impulse to take heavy positions.