macro_event_market_impact_skill

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Macro Event Market Impact Skill

数据依赖与执行前置条件

Data Dependencies and Pre-execution Requirements

推荐使用万得

wind-mcp-skill

获取底层数据。执行前先检查本地是否已有

wind-mcp-skill

；若没有，提示用户安装：

bash

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It is recommended to use Wind's

wind-mcp-skill

to obtain underlying data. Before execution, check whether

wind-mcp-skill

is already available locally; if not, prompt the user to install it:

bash

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GitHub

npx skills add Wind-Information-Co-Ltd/wind-skills --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

Gitee 镜像（国内）

Gitee Mirror (Domestic China)

npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

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npx skills add https://gitee.com/wind_info/wind-skills.git --skill wind-mcp-skill -g -y

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技能定位

Skill Positioning

本技能用于解读宏观事件对市场的影响，回答“这次数据或会议到底超了什么、影响先落在哪些资产和板块、短线市场为什么这样反应、中期该如何重新理解环境”。输出重点不是复述新闻标题，而是拆解预期差、传导路径与对股票市场的真实含义。

This skill is used to interpret the impact of macro events on the market, answering questions such as "What exactly exceeded expectations in this data or meeting, which assets and sectors are affected first, why the short-term market reacted this way, and how to reunderstand the environment in the medium term". The key output is not repeating news headlines, but breaking down expectation gaps, transmission paths, and the real implications for the stock market.

执行流程

Execution Process

Step 1：确认宏观事件、预期基线与时点背景

Step 1: Confirm Macro Event, Expected Baseline and Context of the Timing

先明确本次要解读的事件是什么，并建立事件前的基准背景：

是通胀、就业、增长、利率还是政策会议
事件公布前市场的主流预期是什么
当前市场最敏感的变量是通胀、增长、流动性还是政策路径
这次事件发生前，市场处于风险偏好上升还是防御状态

若没有预期基线，宏观解读容易流于“数据好或坏”的表面判断。

First, clarify what macro event is to be interpreted, and establish the benchmark background before the event:

Is it inflation, employment, growth, interest rates or policy meetings
What was the market's mainstream expectation before the event was announced
Is the market's most sensitive variable currently inflation, growth, liquidity or policy path
Was the market in a state of rising risk appetite or defensive stance before this event occurred

Without an expected baseline, macro interpretation tends to stay at the superficial judgment of "good or bad data".

Step 2：识别本次事件的真正预期差

Step 2: Identify the Real Expectation Gap of This Event

宏观事件的重点不在数据本身，而在于与市场预期相比改变了什么，重点包括：

哪个核心数据点超预期或低于预期
市场原本最担心的变量是否被缓解或强化
数据内部结构是否比 headline 更重要
这次事件是否改变后续政策、流动性或增长叙事

The focus of macro events is not the data itself, but what has changed compared to market expectations. Key points include:

Which core data point exceeded or fell short of expectations
Whether the variable the market was most worried about has been alleviated or intensified
Whether the internal structure of the data is more important than the headline figure
Whether this event has changed the subsequent narrative of policy, liquidity or growth

Step 3：拆解影响传导链条

Step 3: Disassemble the Impact Transmission Chain

围绕股票市场，说明影响通常如何传导：

先影响利率、汇率、商品或风险偏好
再影响成长与价值、周期与防御等风格比较
进一步影响对特定行业的盈利预期和估值容忍度
最后影响市场对未来几周或几个月环境的定价

要把即时价格波动与更慢的叙事重定价分开处理。

Focusing on the stock market, explain how impacts are usually transmitted:

First affect interest rates, exchange rates, commodities or risk appetite
Then affect style comparisons such as growth vs value, cyclical vs defensive
Further affect profit expectations and valuation tolerance for specific industries
Finally affect the market's pricing of the environment in the coming weeks or months

It is necessary to separate immediate price fluctuations from slower narrative repricing.

Step 4：分析对板块与风格的差异化影响

Step 4: Analyze Differentiated Impacts on Sectors and Styles

不同板块对同一宏观事件的敏感度并不相同，需要说明：

哪些行业是直接受益方
哪些行业更容易承压
哪些板块的反应主要来自估值变化，哪些来自基本面变化
若市场出现与直觉相反的表现，原因可能是什么

Different sectors have different sensitivities to the same macro event, and it is necessary to explain:

Which industries are direct beneficiaries
Which industries are more likely to come under pressure
Which sectors' reactions mainly come from valuation changes and which come from fundamental changes
What may be the reason if the market shows a counterintuitive performance

Step 5：区分短线交易反应与中期环境含义

Step 5: Distinguish Short-term Trading Reactions from Medium-term Environmental Implications

进一步判断：

今天的市场反应是合理定价还是情绪放大
事件是否足以改变中期市场主线
若只是一次扰动，后续哪些数据仍需确认
若环境确实切换，风格和仓位应如何调整

Further judge:

Is today's market reaction reasonable pricing or emotional amplification
Is the event sufficient to change the medium-term market main line
If it is just a disturbance, which subsequent data still need to be confirmed
If the environment does switch, how should styles and positions be adjusted

Step 6：形成宏观冲击解读成稿

Step 6: Form the Final Macro Impact Interpretation Draft

最终输出应让使用者知道这次宏观事件影响了什么、影响有多深、该盯什么后续变量。正文只保留预期差、传导逻辑、差异化影响和跟踪点。

The final output should let users know what this macro event has affected, how deep the impact is, and what follow-up variables to monitor. The main text only retains expectation gaps, transmission logic, differentiated impacts and tracking points.

输出结构

Output Structure

{宏观事件名称}市场影响解读（{YYYY-MM-DD}）

Market Impact Interpretation of {Macro Event Name} ({YYYY-MM-DD})

一、30 秒结论

1. 30-second Conclusion

本次最大预期差：{一句话}
对股市的主影响方向：{偏利好 / 偏利空 / 中性偏复杂}
最敏感的风格或板块：{内容}
中期含义判断：{环境改善 / 环境承压 / 仍待确认}

Largest Expectation Gap This Time: {One sentence}
Main Impact Direction on Stock Market: {Bullish / Bearish / Neutral and complex}
Most Sensitive Style or Sector: {Content}
Medium-term Implication Judgment: {Environment improved / Environment under pressure / To be confirmed}

二、事件事实与预期对比

2. Event Facts vs Expectations

项目	公布结果	事前预期	变化含义
核心指标 1	{内容}	{内容}	{判断}
核心指标 2	{内容}	{内容}	{判断}
核心指标 3	{内容}	{内容}	{判断}

Item	Announced Result	Pre-event Expectation	Implication of Change
Core Indicator 1	{Content}	{Content}	{Judgment}
Core Indicator 2	{Content}	{Content}	{Judgment}
Core Indicator 3	{Content}	{Content}	{Judgment}

三、影响传导路径

3. Impact Transmission Path

第一层传导：{内容}
第二层传导：{内容}
第三层传导：{内容}

First-layer Transmission: {Content}
Second-layer Transmission: {Content}
Third-layer Transmission: {Content}

四、板块与风格影响

4. Impacts on Sectors and Styles

受益方向：{内容}
承压方向：{内容}
最值得留意的错位反应：{内容}

Beneficiary Direction: {Content}
Pressure-bearing Direction: {Content}
Most Notable Misaligned Reaction: {Content}

五、短线与中期判断

5. Short-term and Medium-term Judgment

短线交易反应解读：{内容}
中期环境含义：{内容}
仍需继续验证的变量：{内容}

Interpretation of Short-term Trading Reaction: {Content}
Medium-term Environmental Implication: {Content}
Variables Still Needing Verification: {Content}

六、后续观察清单

6. Follow-up Observation List

{观察点 1}
{观察点 2}
{观察点 3}

{Observation Point 1}
{Observation Point 2}
{Observation Point 3}

质量要求

Quality Requirements

宏观解读必须围绕“预期差”展开，而不是只写数据好坏。
要把即时市场反应与中期环境重定价分开分析。
需体现风格和行业的差异化敏感度，避免给出平均结论。
若市场反应与直觉相反，应优先解释原因，而不是忽略。
输出要帮助使用者判断事件影响的深浅与持续性，而不是停留在新闻复述。

Macro interpretation must focus on "expectation gaps" rather than just stating whether data is good or bad.
Separate immediate market reactions from medium-term environmental repricing for analysis.
Reflect differentiated sensitivities of styles and industries, avoiding average conclusions.
If the market reaction is counterintuitive, prioritize explaining the reason instead of ignoring it.
The output should help users judge the depth and persistence of the event's impact, rather than staying at news repetition.