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dcf-valuation

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DCF Valuation Skill

DCF估值技能

Workflow Checklist

工作流检查清单

Copy and track progress:
DCF Analysis Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Gather financial data
- [ ] Step 2: Calculate FCF growth rate
- [ ] Step 3: Estimate discount rate (WACC)
- [ ] Step 4: Project future cash flows (Years 1-5 + Terminal)
- [ ] Step 5: Calculate present value and fair value per share
- [ ] Step 6: Run sensitivity analysis
- [ ] Step 7: Validate results
- [ ] Step 8: Present results with caveats
复制并跟踪进度：
DCF Analysis Progress:
- [ ] Step 1: Gather financial data
- [ ] Step 2: Calculate FCF growth rate
- [ ] Step 3: Estimate discount rate (WACC)
- [ ] Step 4: Project future cash flows (Years 1-5 + Terminal)
- [ ] Step 5: Calculate present value and fair value per share
- [ ] Step 6: Run sensitivity analysis
- [ ] Step 7: Validate results
- [ ] Step 8: Present results with caveats

Step 1: Gather Financial Data

步骤1：收集财务数据

Call the 
financial_search
tool with these queries:
调用
financial_search
工具并使用以下查询语句：

1.1 Cash Flow History

1.1 现金流历史

Query: 
"[TICKER] annual cash flow statements for the last 5 years"
Extract: 
free_cash_flow
, 
net_cash_flow_from_operations
, 
capital_expenditure
Fallback: If 
free_cash_flow
missing, calculate: 
net_cash_flow_from_operations - capital_expenditure
查询语句： 
"[TICKER] annual cash flow statements for the last 5 years"
提取数据： 
free_cash_flow
、
net_cash_flow_from_operations
、
capital_expenditure
备选方案： 如果缺少
free_cash_flow
，则通过公式计算：
net_cash_flow_from_operations - capital_expenditure

1.2 Financial Metrics

1.2 财务指标

Query: 
"[TICKER] financial metrics snapshot"
Extract: 
market_cap
, 
enterprise_value
, 
free_cash_flow_growth
, 
revenue_growth
, 
return_on_invested_capital
, 
debt_to_equity
, 
free_cash_flow_per_share
查询语句： 
"[TICKER] financial metrics snapshot"
提取数据： 
market_cap
、
enterprise_value
、
free_cash_flow_growth
、
revenue_growth
、
return_on_invested_capital
、
debt_to_equity
、
free_cash_flow_per_share

1.3 Balance Sheet

1.3 资产负债表

Query: 
"[TICKER] latest balance sheet"
Extract: 
total_debt
, 
cash_and_equivalents
, 
current_investments
, 
outstanding_shares
Fallback: If 
current_investments
missing, use 0
查询语句： 
"[TICKER] latest balance sheet"
提取数据： 
total_debt
、
cash_and_equivalents
、
current_investments
、
outstanding_shares
备选方案： 如果缺少
current_investments
，则使用0替代

1.4 Analyst Estimates

1.4 分析师预测

Query: 
"[TICKER] analyst estimates"
Extract: 
earnings_per_share
(forward estimates by fiscal year)
Use: Calculate implied EPS growth rate for cross-validation
查询语句： 
"[TICKER] analyst estimates"
提取数据： 
earnings_per_share
（按财年的远期预测）
用途： 计算隐含EPS增长率以进行交叉验证

1.5 Current Price

1.5 当前股价

Query: 
"[TICKER] price snapshot"
Extract: 
price
查询语句： 
"[TICKER] price snapshot"
提取数据： 
price

1.6 Company Facts

1.6 公司基本信息

Query: 
"[TICKER] company facts"
Extract: 
sector
, 
industry
, 
market_cap
Use: Determine appropriate WACC range from sector-wacc.md
查询语句： 
"[TICKER] company facts"
提取数据： 
sector
、
industry
、
market_cap
用途： 从sector-wacc.md中确定合适的WACC范围

Step 2: Calculate FCF Growth Rate

步骤2：计算FCF增长率

Calculate 5-year FCF CAGR from cash flow history.
Cross-validate with: 
free_cash_flow_growth
(YoY), 
revenue_growth
, analyst EPS growth
Growth rate selection:
  • Stable FCF history → Use CAGR with 10-20% haircut
  • Volatile FCF → Weight analyst estimates more heavily
  • Cap at 15% (sustained higher growth is rare)
根据现金流历史数据计算5年FCF复合年增长率（CAGR）。
交叉验证依据： 
free_cash_flow_growth
（同比）、
revenue_growth
、分析师EPS增长率
增长率选择规则：
  • FCF历史稳定 → 使用CAGR并下调10-20%
  • FCF波动较大 → 更侧重分析师预测值
  • 上限为15%（持续更高的增长极为罕见）

Step 3: Estimate Discount Rate (WACC)

步骤3：估算折现率（WACC）

Use the 
sector
from company facts to select the appropriate base WACC range from sector-wacc.md.
Default assumptions:
  • Risk-free rate: 4%
  • Equity risk premium: 5-6%
  • Cost of debt: 5-6% pre-tax (~4% after-tax at 30% tax rate)
Calculate WACC using 
debt_to_equity
for capital structure weights.
Reasonableness check: WACC should be 2-4% below 
return_on_invested_capital
for value-creating companies.
Sector adjustments: Apply adjustment factors from sector-wacc.md based on company-specific characteristics.
使用公司基本信息中的
sector
，从sector-wacc.md中选择合适的基准WACC范围。
默认假设：
  • 无风险利率：4%
  • 股权风险溢价：5-6%
  • 债务成本：税前5-6%（税率30%时税后约4%）
利用
debt_to_equity
计算资本结构权重，进而得出WACC。
合理性检查： 对于创造价值的公司，WACC应比
return_on_invested_capital
低2-4%。
行业调整： 根据公司特定特征，应用sector-wacc.md中的调整系数。

Step 4: Project Future Cash Flows

步骤4：预测未来现金流

Years 1-5: Apply growth rate with 5% annual decay (multiply growth rate by 0.95, 0.90, 0.85, 0.80 for years 2-5). This reflects competitive dynamics.
Terminal value: Use Gordon Growth Model with 2.5% terminal growth (GDP proxy).
第1-5年： 应用增长率并每年衰减5%（第2-5年分别将增长率乘以0.95、0.90、0.85、0.80），以此反映市场竞争动态。
终值： 使用戈登增长模型，终端增长率设为2.5%（GDP替代值）。

Step 5: Calculate Present Value

步骤5：计算现值

Discount all FCFs → sum for Enterprise Value → subtract Net Debt → divide by 
outstanding_shares
for fair value per share.
将所有FCF折现 → 求和得出企业价值 → 减去净债务 → 除以
outstanding_shares
得到每股公允价值。

Step 6: Sensitivity Analysis

步骤6：敏感性分析

Create 3×3 matrix: WACC (base ±1%) vs terminal growth (2.0%, 2.5%, 3.0%).
创建3×3矩阵：WACC（基准值±1%） vs 终端增长率（2.0%、2.5%、3.0%）。

Step 7: Validate Results

步骤7：验证结果

Before presenting, verify these sanity checks:
  1. EV comparison: Calculated EV should be within 30% of reported 
    enterprise_value
    • If off by >30%, revisit WACC or growth assumptions
  2. Terminal value ratio: Terminal value should be 50-80% of total EV for mature companies
    • If >90%, growth rate may be too high
    • If <40%, near-term projections may be aggressive
  3. Per-share cross-check: Compare to 
    free_cash_flow_per_share × 15-25
    as rough sanity check
If validation fails, reconsider assumptions before presenting results.
在展示结果前，验证以下合理性检查项：
  1. 企业价值对比：计算得出的企业价值应与报告的
    enterprise_value
    相差在30%以内
    • 若偏差超过30%，重新审视WACC或增长假设
  2. 终值占比：对于成熟企业，终值应占总企业价值的50-80%
    • 若占比>90%，可能增长率假设过高
    • 若占比<40%，短期预测可能过于激进
  3. 每股价值交叉验证：与
    free_cash_flow_per_share × 15-25
    进行对比，作为粗略的合理性检查
若验证不通过，在展示结果前重新考虑假设条件。

Step 8: Output Format

步骤8：输出格式

Present a structured summary including:
  1. Valuation Summary: Current price vs. fair value, upside/downside percentage
  2. Key Inputs Table: All assumptions with their sources
  3. Projected FCF Table: 5-year projections with present values
  4. Sensitivity Matrix: 3×3 grid varying WACC (±1%) and terminal growth (2.0%, 2.5%, 3.0%)
  5. Caveats: Standard DCF limitations plus company-specific risks
展示结构化摘要，包含：
  1. 估值摘要：当前股价与公允价值对比、上涨/下跌幅度
  2. 关键输入表格：所有假设及其来源
  3. 预测FCF表格：5年预测数据及现值
  4. 敏感性矩阵：WACC（±1%）和终端增长率（2.0%、2.5%、3.0%）的3×3网格
  5. 注意事项：DCF的标准局限性及公司特定风险