startup-idea-validation

Compare original and translation side by side

🇺🇸

Original

English

🇨🇳

Translation

Chinese

Startup Idea Validation

创业想法验证

Systematic validation for testing ideas before building: define hypotheses, collect evidence, score the opportunity, and make a decision you can defend.

在开发产品前对想法进行系统化验证：定义假设、收集证据、评估机会价值，并生成可辩护的决策。

Operating Principles (2026)

操作原则（2026）

Prefer decisions over inventories: each dimension ends with
```
GO / CONDITIONAL / PIVOT / NO-GO
```
and a next action.
Separate evidence quality from confidence: weak evidence cannot justify a high score.
Pre-register thresholds and stop rules before running experiments (avoid moving goalposts).
Validate willingness-to-pay and time-to-value early (price is part of the product).
Calibrate thresholds to the target outcome (venture-scale vs cash-flow business) and business model (B2B SaaS, B2C, marketplace, services).
Stay safe and ethical: no misrepresentation, respect ToS, and handle customer data with minimization and retention limits.

优先决策而非积累：每个维度最终都要给出
```
GO / CONDITIONAL / PIVOT / NO-GO
```
结论及下一步行动。
区分证据质量与信心：薄弱证据无法支撑高分。
在开展实验前预先设定阈值和停止规则（避免改变目标）。
尽早验证付费意愿和价值交付时间（价格是产品的一部分）。
根据目标成果（风险投资规模vs现金流业务）和商业模式（B2B SaaS、B2C、平台、服务）调整阈值。
保持安全与合规：不得虚假陈述，遵守服务条款，最小化客户数据处理并设置保留期限。

Intake Checklist (Ask First)

接收清单（先询问）

One-sentence idea + target user + job-to-be-done
Business model: B2B/B2C, SaaS/usage-based/marketplace/services, ACV/ARPU range
Geography, constraints (regulated domain, procurement/security requirements, data access)
Target outcome: venture-scale, profitable small business, or thesis-driven R&D
Current evidence: interviews, pilots, pre-sales, traffic, competitor list, pricing assumptions

一句话描述的想法+目标用户+待完成任务
商业模式：B2B/B2C、SaaS/按使用付费/平台/服务，ACV/ARPU范围
地域、约束条件（受监管领域、采购/安全要求、数据访问权限）
目标成果：风险投资规模、盈利型小企业、或基于理论的研发
当前已有证据：访谈、试点、预售、流量、竞品列表、定价假设

Choose the Right Output

选择合适的输出

If the user asks…	Produce…	Use…
“Validate this idea” / “Is this worth building?”	9-dimension scorecard + verdict	validation-scorecard.md, go-no-go-decision.md
“What’s the riskiest assumption?”	RAT + test plan	riskiest-assumption-test.md, validation-experiment-planner.md
“Test my hypothesis”	Hypothesis canvas + experiment design	hypothesis-canvas.md, hypothesis-testing-guide.md
“Market size for X”	TAM/SAM/SOM sizing + assumptions table	market-sizing-worksheet.md, market-sizing-patterns.md
“Can this be profitable / what’s my runway?”	Unit economics + runway + scenarios	financial-modeling-calculator.md
“Should I build X or Y?”	Comparative scorecard + decision memo	validation-scorecard.md, go-no-go-decision.md

如果用户问…	生成…	使用…
“验证这个想法” / “这个值得开发吗？”	9维度评分卡 + 结论	validation-scorecard.md, go-no-go-decision.md
“最具风险的假设是什么？”	RAT + 测试计划	riskiest-assumption-test.md, validation-experiment-planner.md
“测试我的假设”	假设画布 + 实验设计	hypothesis-canvas.md, hypothesis-testing-guide.md
“X的市场规模是多少？”	TAM/SAM/SOM规模测算 + 假设表	market-sizing-worksheet.md, market-sizing-patterns.md
“这个能盈利吗 / 我的现金流能撑多久？”	单位经济效益 + 现金流周期 + 场景分析	financial-modeling-calculator.md
“我应该开发X还是Y？”	对比评分卡 + 决策备忘录	validation-scorecard.md, go-no-go-decision.md

Workflow

工作流程

Clarify the target outcome and business model; set default thresholds accordingly.
Identify the RAT (the assumption that kills the business if wrong).
Plan the validation ladder: interviews -> smoke test -> concierge/WoZ -> paid pilot.
Run the cheapest falsifiable test first; pre-register PASS/FAIL thresholds and stop rules.
Score all 9 dimensions using evidence; downgrade scores when evidence is weak.
Produce a decision memo: verdict, why, what would change the decision, and the next smallest reversible step.

明确目标成果和商业模式；据此设置默认阈值。
确定RAT（即如果错误会导致业务失败的假设）。
规划验证阶梯：访谈→烟雾测试→礼宾/WoZ模式→付费试点。
先开展成本最低的可证伪测试；预先注册通过/失败阈值和停止规则。
基于证据对所有9个维度评分；证据薄弱时降低分数。
生成决策备忘录：结论、理由、会改变决策的因素、以及最小的可逆下一步行动。

9-Dimension Scorecard

9维度评分卡

Dimension	Weight	What it measures
Problem severity	15%	Urgency, cost of inaction, current workarounds
Market size	12%	Sufficient demand for the target outcome
Market timing	10%	Clear “why now” and tailwinds
Competitive moat	12%	Defensibility over time
Unit economics	15%	Profit path (incl. payback and margins)
Founder-market fit	8%	Access, expertise, and execution capability
Technical feasibility	10%	Buildability, dependencies, constraints
GTM clarity	10%	ICP, channels, motion, first customers
Risk profile	8%	What can kill it and likelihood

Verdict thresholds (default):

```
80–100
```
: GO
```
60–79
```
: CONDITIONAL (validate RAT first)
```
40–59
```
: PIVOT
```
<40
```
: NO-GO

Deep scoring rubrics and calibration live in validation-methodology.md.

维度	权重	衡量内容
问题严重性	15%	紧迫性、不作为的成本、当前的解决方案
市场规模	12%	目标成果对应的需求充足性
市场时机	10%	明确的“为什么是现在”和发展趋势
竞争护城河	12%	长期防御能力
单位经济效益	15%	盈利路径（包括回收期和利润率）
创始人-市场匹配度	8%	资源获取、专业能力和执行能力
技术可行性	10%	可开发性、依赖项、约束条件
上市策略清晰度	10%	理想客户画像、渠道、策略、首批客户
风险概况	8%	可能导致失败的因素及其概率

结论阈值（默认）:

```
80–100
```
: GO
```
60–79
```
: CONDITIONAL（先验证RAT）
```
40–59
```
: PIVOT
```
<40
```
: NO-GO

详细评分标准和校准规则见validation-methodology.md。

Evidence Rules

证据规则

Strong evidence is behavioral commitment with cost (time, money, switching, access); weak evidence is opinions and hypotheticals.
Triangulate important claims across at least two sources (especially market sizing and competitor state).
Keep an evidence trail: link + capture month; separate “fact” vs “assumption”.

强证据是带有成本（时间、金钱、转换、权限）的行为承诺；弱证据是观点和假设。
重要结论至少通过两个来源交叉验证（尤其是市场规模和竞品状态）。
保留证据轨迹：链接 + 记录月份；区分“事实”与“假设”。

Validation Ladder (Default)

验证阶梯（默认）

Step	Goal	Strong signal
Interviews	Validate the problem and context	Repeated pain with real workarounds and spend
Smoke test	Validate demand	Qualified conversion with price shown
Concierge/WoZ	Validate workflow value	Users complete the job and return
Paid pilot	Validate willingness-to-pay	Paid, renewed, or expanded

步骤	目标	强信号
访谈	验证问题和背景	反复出现的痛点、真实的解决方案和相关支出
烟雾测试	验证需求	显示价格后的合格转化
礼宾/WoZ模式	验证流程价值	用户完成任务并再次使用
付费试点	验证付费意愿	付费、续费或扩展使用

AI / Automation Notes (2026)

AI/自动化说明（2026）

If the idea depends on AI (agents, copilots, automation), validate these explicitly:

Data rights and access: can you legally and reliably access required data?
Reliability: define success metrics, failure modes, and human fallback; validate on real workflows.
Cost-to-serve: model inference + retrieval + human-in-the-loop costs in
```
assets/financial-modeling-calculator.md
```
.

See hypothesis-testing-guide.md for AI-specific experiment patterns.

如果想法依赖AI（agents、copilots、自动化），需明确验证以下内容：

数据权限与获取：能否合法且可靠地获取所需数据？
可靠性：定义成功指标、失败模式和人工 fallback；在真实流程中验证。
服务成本：在
```
assets/financial-modeling-calculator.md
```
中建模推理+检索+人工介入成本。

AI特定实验模式见hypothesis-testing-guide.md。

Integration Points

集成点

Receives From

接收自

startup-review-mining - Pain point evidence
startup-trend-prediction - Market timing inputs
startup-competitive-analysis - Competitor landscape

startup-review-mining - 痛点证据
startup-trend-prediction - 市场时机输入
startup-competitive-analysis - 竞品格局

Feeds Into

输出至

router-startup - Startup decision routing
product-management - Validated requirements and roadmap inputs
startup-business-models - Monetization and packaging decisions

router-startup - 创业决策路由
product-management - 经过验证的需求和路线图输入
startup-business-models - 变现和包装决策

Resources

资源

Resource	Purpose
validation-methodology.md	Scoring rubrics and calibration
hypothesis-testing-guide.md	Experiment design and RAT workflows
market-sizing-patterns.md	TAM/SAM/SOM methods and pitfalls
moat-assessment-framework.md	Defensibility analysis

资源	用途
validation-methodology.md	评分标准和校准
hypothesis-testing-guide.md	实验设计和RAT工作流程
market-sizing-patterns.md	TAM/SAM/SOM方法和注意事项
moat-assessment-framework.md	防御能力分析

Templates

模板

Template	Purpose
validation-scorecard.md	Full 9-dimension scoring
go-no-go-decision.md	Decision memo format
hypothesis-canvas.md	Hypothesis definition
validation-experiment-planner.md	Experiment planning + thresholds
riskiest-assumption-test.md	RAT identification and test design
market-sizing-worksheet.md	Sizing worksheet
financial-modeling-calculator.md	Runway + scenarios + unit economics

模板	用途
validation-scorecard.md	完整9维度评分
go-no-go-decision.md	决策备忘录格式
hypothesis-canvas.md	假设定义
validation-experiment-planner.md	实验规划 + 阈值
riskiest-assumption-test.md	RAT识别和测试设计
market-sizing-worksheet.md	规模测算工作表
financial-modeling-calculator.md	现金流周期 + 场景分析 + 单位经济效益

Data

数据

File	Purpose
sources.json	Curated validation resources

文件	用途
sources.json	精选验证资源