write-the-intel-brief

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Chinese

Write the intel brief

撰写情报简报

The report is the only part of the investigation anyone else sees, so it is the only part that can be wrong in public. The failure that destroys credibility isn't a missed source — it's a sentence that reads as fact and is actually an inference. "The account is operated from Lisbon" versus "posting times cluster in UTC+0/+1, consistent with Iberian working hours." One survives cross- examination.
报告是调查中唯一对外公开的部分,因此也是唯一可能在公开场合出错的部分。摧毁可信度的失败不是遗漏了某个来源——而是一句读起来像事实、实际上是推论的话。比如“该账号从里斯本运营”对比“发布时间集中在UTC+0/+1时区,与伊比利亚半岛工作时间一致”。其中一句能经受住交叉质询。

Step 1 — Sort every claim into observation, inference, or assessment

步骤1 — 将所有声明归类为观察、推论或评估

Three categories, never blurred, ideally visually distinct in the text.
  • Observation — what you saw, with source and timestamp. "The registry record retrieved 2024-03-11 lists A. Kestrel as director."
  • Inference — a logical step from observations, with the step shown. "The same registrant email appears on both domains, so they were registered by one party."
  • Assessment — your analytic judgement, carrying probability and confidence. "We assess it is likely the two companies are commonly controlled."
Any sentence where you cannot say which category it belongs to is a sentence that has smuggled a conclusion into the evidence. Rewrite it. Verbs betray the category: is, lists, shows for observation; indicates, implies for inference; we assess, we judge for assessment. Watch out for "appears to be", which pretends to be observation and is inference.
Done when every claim is tagged and no inference is written in the grammatical form of an observation.
三类声明绝不能混淆,最好在文本中通过格式明确区分。
  • 观察 — 你所看到的事实,附带来源与时间戳。“2024-03-11调取的注册记录显示A. Kestrel为董事。”
  • 推论 — 从观察中得出的逻辑推导,需说明推导过程。“两个域名使用了相同的注册人邮箱,因此它们由同一方注册。”
  • 评估 — 你的分析判断,需附带概率与置信度。“我们评估这两家公司很可能受同一方控制。”
任何你无法判断属于哪一类的句子,都是把结论偷带进证据里的句子,必须重写。动词会暴露所属类别:观察类用 is、lists、shows;推论类用 indicates、implies;评估类用 we assess、we judge。注意 appears to be 这类表述,它伪装成观察,实则是推论。
完成标准:所有声明都已标注类别,且没有任何推论以观察的语法形式呈现。

Step 2 — Attach source, timestamp, and an archived copy to every claim

步骤2 — 为每项声明附带来源、时间戳和存档副本

A claim with no source does not go in the report. Not in a footnote, not "multiple sources" — the specific one, per claim.
Each source needs: the URL or the tool and its exact query; the UTC date-time you retrieved it; the source-reliability grade (see
investigate-anything
); and an archive reference. Live URLs rot, and hostile subjects delete. Archive everything you cite, at the moment you cite it, using
read-deleted-pages
— cite the snapshot alongside the live URL, and keep a local copy too, since public archives can themselves be removed on request.
For anything that might become evidence, add chain of custody: who collected it, when, with what tool and version, and a cryptographic hash of the stored file (
sha256sum file
on Linux,
shasum -a 256 file
on macOS). Record the hash in the report, keep the original untouched, and work on copies. A screenshot with no hash, no timestamp and no capture method is worth very little; the underlying HTML, headers, and image files are worth more.
Done when every retained claim has source, retrieval timestamp, grade, and archive reference, and evidentiary items also have hashes.
没有来源的声明不能写入报告。不能放在脚注里,也不能笼统写“多方来源”——每项声明都必须标注具体来源。
每个来源都需要包含:URL或工具名称及其精确查询语句;你调取该来源的UTC日期时间;来源可靠性等级(参见
investigate-anything
);以及存档引用。实时链接会失效,调查对象也可能主动删除内容。你引用的所有内容都要在引用的同时用
read-deleted-pages
存档——在实时链接旁附上快照链接,同时保留本地副本,因为公共存档本身也可能因申请被移除。
对于任何可能成为证据的内容,需添加监管链:收集人、收集时间、使用的工具及版本,以及存储文件的加密哈希值(Linux系统用
sha256sum file
,macOS系统用
shasum -a 256 file
)。将哈希值记录在报告中,原始文件保持不变,所有操作都在副本上进行。没有哈希值、时间戳和采集方式的截图几乎没有价值;底层HTML、请求头和原始图像文件的价值更高。
完成标准:所有保留的声明都有来源、调取时间戳、等级和存档引用,证据类材料还附有哈希值。

Step 3 — Lead with the judgements

步骤3 — 以判断结论开篇

Assume the reader stops after the first half page — because they will. BLUF: the answer to the objective question first, in plain language, with its probability and confidence. Then the two or three judgements that carry the decision. Background, method and detail come after, for the reader who needs to audit you.
A key judgement is one sentence, one judgement, with its estimative term, its confidence, and the reason compressed to a clause. If a judgement needs a paragraph of setup to make sense, it isn't a judgement yet.
Done when the objective question is answered in the first paragraph, and the answer would still be defensible if nothing else were read.
假设读者只会读前半页——因为他们确实只会读这么多。BLUF原则:先用平实的语言回答核心问题,附带概率与置信度。然后列出支撑决策的2-3项关键判断。背景、方法和细节放在后面,供需要审计你的读者查阅。
关键判断应为单句,每项判断包含评估术语、置信度,以及压缩为从句的理由。如果一项判断需要一整段铺垫才能说清,那它还不算合格的判断。
完成标准:核心问题在第一段就得到回答,且即使读者不读其他内容,这个回答也站得住脚。

Step 4 — Use the probability ladder, and only it

步骤4 — 使用且仅使用概率阶梯术语

"Possibly" everywhere is how a report says nothing at length. Standardise on one ordered set of terms and use them consistently:
almost certainly · highly likely · likely · roughly even chance · unlikely · highly unlikely · remote
Rules that make it work: never use a term outside the ladder; never mix in a numeric percentage in the same sentence as a word, since readers anchor on the number; never use "possible" as an estimate, because everything not excluded is possible; and print the ladder in the report so the reader maps words to ranges the same way you did. Full table with ranges, the near-synonyms to avoid, and worked rewrites: reference/estimative-language.md.
Probability and confidence are different axes. Probability is how likely the judgement is to be true. Confidence is how good the evidence underneath it is — source quality, corroboration, and the presence of gaps or plausible deception. You can legitimately write "highly likely, low confidence": the evidence points strongly one way but rests on a single unverifiable source. That sentence is honest and useful. Collapsing the two into one word is not.
Done when every assessment carries one ladder term and a stated confidence level, with the reason for the confidence given.
到处都用“possibly(可能)”的报告,等于长篇大论却什么都没说。请统一使用一套有序的术语,并保持一致:
几乎确定(almost certainly)· 极有可能(highly likely)· 可能(likely)· 大致对半(roughly even chance)· 不太可能(unlikely)· 极不可能(highly unlikely)· 可能性极低(remote)
有效规则:绝不使用阶梯之外的术语;绝不在同一句话中混用百分比数字和文字术语,因为读者会锚定数字;绝不使用 possible 作为评估结果,因为只要没被排除的事情都是可能的;在报告中打印概率阶梯,让读者和你对术语对应的范围有一致的理解。包含范围对照表、需避免的近义词以及改写示例的完整表格见:reference/estimative-language.md
概率与置信度是两个不同维度。 概率指判断为真的可能性有多大。置信度指支撑判断的证据质量如何——包括来源可靠性、佐证情况,以及是否存在信息缺口或合理的欺骗可能性。你完全可以写“极有可能(highly likely),低置信度”:证据强烈指向某一结论,但仅依赖单一无法核实的来源。这样的表述既诚实又有用。把两者混为一谈是不可取的。
完成标准:每项评估都使用一个阶梯术语,并明确标注置信度,同时说明置信度的理由。

Step 5 — Write the negative findings

步骤5 — 记录负面发现

Juniors delete these because they feel like failure. They are frequently the most useful content in the report: they are what stops the next analyst repeating the work, and in due diligence and pre-employment contexts the absence of adverse findings is the deliverable.
State what you looked for, where you looked, and what you did not find — distinguishing "checked, absent" from "could not check". "No sanctions or enforcement listings for the subject in the OFAC, UK, and EU consolidated lists, checked 2024-03-11" is a finding. "No adverse media found" without naming the sources searched, the languages, and the date range is not a finding, it is a shrug. Record rejected leads and candidates too, with the reason for rejection.
Done when searched-and-empty, could-not-check, and rejected-candidate items are each written up with scope and dates.
初级分析师常会删掉这些内容,因为觉得这代表工作失败。但负面发现往往是报告中最有价值的内容:它们能避免下一位分析师重复工作,而且在尽职调查和入职背景调查场景中,“未发现不良记录”本身就是交付成果。
说明你搜索了什么、在哪些地方搜索,以及没有找到什么——区分“已核查,未发现”和“无法核查”。“2024-03-11核查OFAC、英国及欧盟综合制裁名单,未发现调查对象的制裁或执法记录”这才是一项发现。如果只写“未发现不良媒体报道”却不说明搜索的来源、语言和时间范围,那不叫发现,只是敷衍。同时也要记录被排除的线索和候选对象,并说明排除原因。
完成标准:所有“已搜索无结果”、“无法核查”和“已排除候选”项都已记录范围和日期。

Step 6 — Document method and gaps

步骤6 — 记录方法与信息缺口

Reproducibility is what separates an intelligence product from an opinion. Record the tools with versions, the exact queries and dorks, the databases and their coverage dates, the languages searched, and anything that shaped the result: rate limiting, geo-restricted content, paywalls, a persona's access level, deleted material recovered only from archives.
Gaps go in the body, not buried at the end: what could not be established, why (no public registry in that jurisdiction, platform requires authentication, records are sealed), and what would close it — a records request, a subpoena, a site visit. Naming the closed source is a service to whoever reads it.
Done when another analyst could re-run the collection from the report alone and get the same result, and every unanswered objective question has a named reason and a route.
可复现性是情报产品与个人观点的区别所在。记录使用的工具及版本、精确的查询语句和搜索语法(dorks)、数据库及其覆盖日期、搜索的语言,以及所有影响结果的因素:速率限制、地域限制内容、付费墙、虚拟身份的访问权限、仅从存档中恢复的已删除内容。
信息缺口应放在正文里,而不是藏在末尾:说明哪些内容无法核实,原因是什么(该司法管辖区没有公共注册机构、平台需要身份验证、记录已封存),以及如何填补这些缺口——申请记录调取、传票、实地走访。明确列出非公开来源对读者来说是一种帮助。
完成标准:其他分析师仅靠报告就能复现整个信息收集过程并得到相同结果,且每个未解答的核心问题都有明确的原因和解决路径。

Step 7 — Minimise, redact, and format for the audience

步骤7 — 精简、脱敏并根据受众调整格式

Collect broadly, publish narrowly. Remove everything not needed for the objective — especially data about uninvolved third parties who appeared in the collection: family members, neighbours, co-residents at an address, bystanders in photographs, unrelated people sharing the subject's name. Redact rather than delete where the item explains a reasoning step, and say what was redacted and why, so the redaction itself is auditable. Never publish full national-ID numbers, payment card numbers, credentials, or plaintext passwords from breach data; reference them by type and partial value. Keep the unredacted case file separately, encrypted, under the retention limit in ../../ETHICS.md.
Then match the format to the reader:
AudienceShape
Client or executiveOne-page BLUF, judgements with probability and confidence, business implication, no tool names in the body
Incident responderJudgements plus a machine-usable indicator table (selectors, first/last seen, confidence) and the raw artefacts
Legal or regulatoryObservation-only body, inferences separated and labelled, chain of custody and hashes per exhibit, method appendix, nothing redacted without a log
Internal handoverThe graph from
graph-the-network
, the collection plan with what was and wasn't done, and every dead end
Template with all sections, and the evidentiary variant: reference/report-template.md.
Done when the report contains no third-party data the objective doesn't need, and the format matches the named audience.
广泛收集,精简发布。删除所有与目标无关的内容——尤其是收集过程中出现的无关第三方数据:家庭成员、邻居、同地址居住者、照片中的旁观者、与调查对象同名的无关人员。如果某项内容能解释推理步骤,则进行脱敏而非删除,并说明脱敏了什么内容、为什么脱敏,这样脱敏操作本身也是可审计的。绝不要发布完整的身份证号、支付卡号、凭证或泄露数据中的明文密码;仅按类型和部分值引用。未脱敏的案件文件应单独加密存储,遵守 ../../ETHICS.md 中的留存期限规定。
然后根据受众调整呈现格式:
受众呈现形式
客户或高管一页式BLUF报告,包含带概率和置信度的判断、业务影响,正文中不出现工具名称
事件响应人员判断结论 + 机器可读的指标表(选择器、首次/末次出现时间、置信度) + 原始证据
法律或监管人员仅含观察内容的正文,推论单独标注,每份证物附监管链和哈希值,方法附录,所有脱敏操作均有日志
内部交接
graph-the-network
生成的关系图、包含已完成/未完成工作的收集计划,以及所有死胡同线索
包含所有章节的模板以及证据版模板见:reference/report-template.md
完成标准:报告中不包含任何目标不需要的第三方数据,且格式符合指定受众的需求。

Where this goes wrong

常见问题

  • Inference laundering. An inference stated on page 2, repeated as background on page 5, cited as established on page 8. Watch for your own claims re-entering as facts.
  • Confidence inflation from volume. Forty low-grade items feel like a lot. Grade quality, not count; check for circular reporting before any corroboration claim.
  • The hedge that means nothing. "It cannot be ruled out that" is true of everything. Either estimate it or drop it.
  • Screenshots as evidence. Trivially forged and easily misread. Cite the archived original; use a screenshot only as an illustration next to it.
  • Report written from memory. Reconstructing sources afterwards produces citations to pages that no longer say what you remember. Cite as you collect.
  • The wrong-person catastrophe. Everything above is fine and the subject is the wrong human being. Restate the discriminators in the report and show which evidence ties the findings to that individual specifically.
  • Distribution. Once sent, it is copied forever. Mark handling, name the recipients, and assume onward sharing.
  • 推论洗白。 第2页提出的推论,在第5页作为背景重复,到第8页就被当作既定事实引用了。要警惕你自己的说法被反复提及后变成了“事实”。
  • 数量导致的置信度膨胀。 40条低质量来源看起来很多。要评估质量,而不是数量;在声称有佐证之前,先检查是否存在循环报道。
  • 毫无意义的模糊表述。 “不能排除……的可能性”这句话放在任何事情上都成立。要么给出评估,要么删掉。
  • 把截图当证据。 截图极易伪造,也容易被误读。引用存档的原始内容;截图仅作为旁边的图示使用。
  • 凭记忆写报告。 事后回溯来源会导致引用的页面内容已经和你记忆中的不一样了。边收集边引用。
  • 对象错误的灾难。 以上所有步骤都没问题,但调查对象找错了人。在报告中重申区分特征,并说明哪些证据能将调查结果与该特定个人关联起来。
  • 分发问题。 报告一旦发出,就会被永久复制。标注处理要求,明确收件人,并假设报告会被转发。

Confidence grading

置信度分级

  • High confidence — multiple independently collected sources, at least one authoritative primary record, consistent, no plausible deception, no material gap.
  • Moderate confidence — credible sourcing with partial corroboration, or a gap that does not touch the core judgement.
  • Low confidence — single source, unverifiable sourcing, significant gaps, or a live possibility of manipulation. Still publishable — say why it is low and what would raise it.
State the confidence next to the judgement, not in a preamble the reader skips.
  • 高置信度 — 多个独立收集的来源,至少有一份权威的原始记录,结论一致,不存在合理的欺骗可能性,无重大信息缺口。
  • 中等置信度 — 来源可信且有部分佐证,或存在不影响核心判断的信息缺口。
  • 低置信度 — 单一来源、来源无法核实、存在重大信息缺口,或有明显的被操纵可能。仍然可以发布——说明置信度低的原因,以及如何提升置信度。
把置信度标注在判断旁边,而不是放在读者会跳过的前言里。

Worked example

示例

Objective: does the supplier share control with a barred entity?
BLUF: "It is likely (moderate confidence) that Nordvale Trading and the barred entity share beneficial control."
Observation: both filings name the same accountancy firm; both domains resolve to a registrant email
admin@ke-holdings.example
(retrieved 2024-03-11, archived). Inference: a shared registrant email indicates one registering party. Assessment: likely common control — moderate, not high, because the beneficial owner is undisclosed in that jurisdiction and a nominee arrangement remains untested.
Negative finding included: the shared home address reported by three people-search sites was traced to one broker feed carrying an identical misspelling; recorded as circular and excluded. Redacted: two co-residents at that address, unrelated to the objective. Gap named: UBO register is non-public; a formal request would close it.
目标:供应商是否与某受限实体存在共同控制关系?
BLUF:“可能(中等置信度)Nordvale Trading与该受限实体存在受益控制权关联。”
观察:两份备案文件都列出了同一家会计师事务所;两个域名的注册人邮箱均为
admin@ke-holdings.example
(2024-03-11调取,已存档)。推论:共享注册人邮箱表明注册方为同一主体。评估:可能存在共同控制——置信度为中等而非高,因为该司法管辖区不披露受益所有人,且代持安排尚未得到验证。
包含的负面发现:三个人物搜索网站报告的共同家庭地址,可追溯到同一个数据商来源,且存在完全相同的拼写错误;记录为循环报道并予以排除。脱敏内容:该地址的两名共同居住者,与调查目标无关。明确的信息缺口:UBO登记册不公开;可通过正式申请填补。

Pivots

关联技能

The report is the terminal product; it consumes rather than produces selectors. Take the entity map from
graph-the-network
, the archived copies from
read-deleted-pages
, and the scope statement from
investigate-anything
. Unresolved indicators go back to the workflow that produces them.
报告是最终产品;它消费选择器而非生成选择器。需从
graph-the-network
获取实体关系图,从
read-deleted-pages
获取存档副本,从
investigate-anything
获取调查范围说明。未解决的指标需返回生成它们的工作流。

Legal notes

法律说明

An OSINT report about a living person is personal data in its own right, and the subject may have access rights to it in some jurisdictions — write every line as if the subject will read it, because they may be entitled to. Reports likely to be used in proceedings need the evidentiary format from Step 7 and unbroken custody; a report assembled loosely and reformatted later cannot recover custody it never had. Breach-derived material carries its own handling constraints — see
what-leaked-about-you
— and quoting credentials into a report can itself be unlawful processing.
关于在世个人的OSINT报告本身属于个人数据,在某些司法管辖区,调查对象可能有权查阅该报告——每一行都要当作调查对象会读到一样来写,因为他们确实可能有权查阅。可能用于诉讼程序的报告需要采用步骤7中的证据格式,且监管链不能中断;一份松散组装、事后重新格式化的报告无法弥补其从一开始就缺失的监管链。泄露数据衍生的材料有其自身的处理限制——参见
what-leaked-about-you
——将凭证引用到报告中本身可能构成非法处理。