institutional-flow-tracker

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Institutional Flow Tracker

机构资金流追踪工具

Overview

概述

This skill tracks institutional investor activity through 13F SEC filings to identify "smart money" flows into and out of stocks. By analyzing quarterly changes in institutional ownership, you can discover stocks that sophisticated investors are accumulating before major price moves, or identify potential risks when institutions are reducing positions.

Key Insight: Institutional investors (hedge funds, pension funds, mutual funds) manage trillions of dollars and conduct extensive research. Their collective buying/selling patterns often precede significant price movements by 1-3 quarters.

该技能通过美国SEC的13F申报文件追踪机构投资者的活动，识别股票的“聪明资金”流入和流出情况。通过分析机构持仓的季度变化，你可以发现资深投资者在股价出现重大波动前增持的股票，或者在机构减持时识别潜在风险。

核心洞察： 机构投资者（对冲基金、养老基金、共同基金）管理着数万亿美元的资产，并且会开展大量研究。他们的集体买卖模式通常会比重大价格波动提前1-3个季度出现。

When to Use This Skill

何时使用该技能

Use this skill when:

Validating investment ideas (checking if smart money agrees with your thesis)
Discovering new opportunities (finding stocks institutions are accumulating)
Risk assessment (identifying stocks institutions are exiting)
Portfolio monitoring (tracking institutional support for your holdings)
Following specific investors (tracking Warren Buffett, Cathie Wood, etc.)
Sector rotation analysis (identifying where institutions are rotating capital)

Do NOT use when:

Seeking real-time intraday signals (13F data has 45-day reporting lag)
Analyzing micro-cap stocks (<$100M market cap with limited institutional interest)
Looking for short-term trading signals (<3 months horizon)

在以下场景使用该技能：

验证投资思路（查看聪明资金是否与你的观点一致）
发现新机会（找到机构正在增持的股票）
风险评估（识别机构正在退出的股票）
投资组合监控（追踪机构对你持仓标的的支持情况）
追踪特定投资者（如沃伦·巴菲特、凯西·伍德等）
板块轮动分析（识别机构正在转向的板块）

请勿在以下场景使用：

寻求日内实时信号（13F数据存在45天的报告滞后）
分析小盘股（市值低于1亿美元，机构关注度有限）
寻找短期交易信号（周期短于3个月）

Data Sources & Requirements

数据源与要求

Required: FMP API Key

必需：FMP API密钥

This skill uses Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) API to access 13F filing data:

Setup:

bash

undefined

该技能使用Financial Modeling Prep (FMP) API获取13F申报文件数据：

设置方法：

bash

undefined

Set environment variable (preferred)

设置环境变量（推荐方式）

export FMP_API_KEY=your_key_here

Or provide when running scripts

或在运行脚本时提供

python3 scripts/track_institutional_flow.py --api-key YOUR_KEY


**API Tier Requirements:**
- **Free Tier:** 250 requests/day (sufficient for analyzing 20-30 stocks quarterly)
- **Paid Tiers:** Higher limits for extensive screening

**13F Filing Schedule:**
- Filed quarterly within 45 days after quarter end
- Q1 (Jan-Mar): Filed by mid-May
- Q2 (Apr-Jun): Filed by mid-August
- Q3 (Jul-Sep): Filed by mid-November
- Q4 (Oct-Dec): Filed by mid-February

python3 scripts/track_institutional_flow.py --api-key YOUR_KEY


**API层级要求：**
- **免费层级：** 每日250次请求（足以每季度分析20-30只股票）
- **付费层级：** 更高请求限额，适用于大规模筛选

**13F申报时间表：**
- 每季度结束后45天内提交申报
- Q1（1-3月）：5月中旬前提交
- Q2（4-6月）：8月中旬前提交
- Q3（7-9月）：11月中旬前提交
- Q4（10-12月）：2月中旬前提交

Analysis Workflow

分析流程

Step 1: Identify Stocks with Significant Institutional Changes

步骤1：识别机构持仓发生重大变化的股票

Execute the main screening script to find stocks with notable institutional activity:

Quick scan (top 50 stocks by institutional change):

bash

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institutional_flow.py \
  --top 50 \
  --min-change-percent 10

Sector-focused scan:

bash

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institutional_flow.py \
  --sector Technology \
  --min-institutions 20

Custom screening:

bash

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institutional_flow.py \
  --min-market-cap 2000000000 \
  --min-change-percent 15 \
  --top 100 \
  --output institutional_flow_results.json

Output includes:

Stock ticker and company name
Current institutional ownership % (of shares outstanding)
Quarter-over-quarter change in shares held
Number of institutions holding
Change in number of institutions (new buyers vs sellers)
Top institutional holders
Aggregate dollar value change

执行主筛选脚本，找到机构活动显著的股票：

快速扫描（按机构持仓变化排名前50的股票）：

bash

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institutional_flow.py \
  --top 50 \
  --min-change-percent 10

聚焦板块的扫描：

bash

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institutional_flow.py \
  --sector Technology \
  --min-institutions 20

自定义筛选：

bash

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institutional_flow.py \
  --min-market-cap 2000000000 \
  --min-change-percent 15 \
  --top 100 \
  --output institutional_flow_results.json

输出内容包括：

股票代码和公司名称
当前机构持仓占流通股的比例
持仓股数的季度变化
持有该股票的机构数量
机构数量变化（新增买方 vs 卖方）
顶级机构持有者
持仓金额的总变化

Step 2: Deep Dive on Specific Stocks

步骤2：对特定股票进行深度分析

For detailed analysis of a specific stock's institutional ownership:

bash

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/analyze_single_stock.py AAPL

This generates:

Historical institutional ownership trend (8 quarters)
List of all institutional holders with position changes
Concentration analysis (top 10 holders' % of total institutional ownership)
New positions vs increased vs decreased vs closed positions
Quarterly flow chart (net shares added/removed)
Comparison to sector average institutional ownership

Key metrics to evaluate:

Ownership %: Higher institutional ownership (>70%) = more stability but limited upside
Ownership Trend: Rising ownership = bullish, falling = bearish
Concentration: High concentration (top 10 > 50%) = risk if they sell
Quality of Holders: Presence of quality long-term investors (Berkshire, Fidelity) vs momentum funds

如需详细分析某只股票的机构持仓情况：

bash

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/analyze_single_stock.py AAPL

该脚本生成：

机构持仓历史趋势（8个季度）
所有机构持有者的持仓变化列表
集中度分析（前10大持有者占总机构持仓的比例）
新建仓 vs 增仓 vs 减仓 vs 清仓的情况
季度资金流图表（净增/减持股数）
与板块平均机构持仓的对比

需要评估的核心指标：

持仓比例： 机构持仓比例越高（>70%），稳定性越强但上涨空间有限
持仓趋势： 持仓比例上升 = 看涨信号，下降 = 看跌信号
集中度： 高集中度（前10大持有者占比>50%）= 若他们减持则存在风险
持有者质量： 是否有优质长期投资者（如伯克希尔、富达）而非动量基金

Step 3: Track Specific Institutional Investors

步骤3：追踪特定机构投资者

Follow the portfolio moves of specific hedge funds or investment firms:

bash

undefined

追踪特定对冲基金或投资公司的投资组合变动：

bash

undefined

Track Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway

追踪沃伦·巴菲特的伯克希尔·哈撒韦

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institution_portfolio.py
--cik 0001067983
--name "Berkshire Hathaway"

Track Cathie Wood's ARK Investment Management

追踪凯西·伍德的ARK投资管理公司

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institution_portfolio.py
--cik 0001579982
--name "ARK Investment Management"


**CIK (Central Index Key) lookup:**
- Search at: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar
- Or use FMP API institutional search

**Analysis output:**
- Current portfolio holdings (top 50 positions)
- New positions added this quarter
- Positions completely sold
- Largest increases/decreases in existing positions
- Portfolio concentration and sector allocation changes
- Historical performance of their top picks

python3 institutional-flow-tracker/scripts/track_institution_portfolio.py
--cik 0001579982
--name "ARK Investment Management"


**CIK（中央索引键）查询：**
- 搜索地址：https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar
- 或使用FMP API的机构搜索功能

**分析输出：**
- 当前投资组合持仓（前50大仓位）
- 本季度新增的仓位
- 完全清仓的仓位
- 现有仓位中增减幅度最大的标的
- 投资组合集中度和板块配置变化
- 其顶级持仓标的的历史表现

Step 4: Interpretation and Action

步骤4：解读与行动

Read the references for interpretation guidance:

```
references/13f_filings_guide.md
```
- Understanding 13F data and limitations
```
references/institutional_investor_types.md
```
- Different investor types and their strategies
```
references/interpretation_framework.md
```
- How to interpret institutional flow signals

Signal Strength Framework:

Strong Bullish (Consider buying):

Institutional ownership increasing >15% QoQ
Number of institutions increasing >10%
Quality long-term investors adding positions
Low current ownership (<40%) with room to grow
Accumulation happening across multiple quarters

Moderate Bullish:

Institutional ownership increasing 5-15% QoQ
Mix of new buyers and sellers, net positive
Current ownership 40-70%

Neutral:

Minimal change in ownership (<5%)
Similar number of buyers and sellers
Stable institutional base

Moderate Bearish:

Institutional ownership decreasing 5-15% QoQ
More sellers than buyers
High ownership (>80%) limiting new buyers

Strong Bearish (Consider selling/avoiding):

Institutional ownership decreasing >15% QoQ
Number of institutions decreasing >10%
Quality investors exiting positions
Distribution happening across multiple quarters
Concentration risk (top holder selling large position)

参考以下文档获取解读指导：

```
references/13f_filings_guide.md
```
- 了解13F数据及其局限性
```
references/institutional_investor_types.md
```
- 不同类型的机构投资者及其策略
```
references/interpretation_framework.md
```
- 如何解读机构资金流信号

信号强度框架：

强烈看涨（考虑买入）：

机构持仓比例季度增长>15%
持有机构数量增长>10%
优质长期投资者增仓
当前持仓比例较低（<40%），仍有增长空间
连续多个季度出现增持

温和看涨：

机构持仓比例季度增长5-15%
新增买方和卖方并存，整体净流入
当前持仓比例40-70%

中性：

持仓比例变化极小（<5%）
买方和卖方数量相近
机构持仓基础稳定

温和看跌：

机构持仓比例季度下降5-15%
卖方数量多于买方
持仓比例过高（>80%），潜在买方有限

强烈看跌（考虑卖出/回避）：

机构持仓比例季度下降>15%
持有机构数量减少>10%
优质投资者清仓
连续多个季度出现减持
集中度风险（顶级持有者大幅减持）

Step 5: Portfolio Application

步骤5：投资组合应用

For new positions:

Run institutional analysis on your stock idea
Look for confirmation (institutions also accumulating)
If strong bearish signals, reconsider or reduce position size
If strong bullish signals, gain confidence in thesis

For existing holdings:

Quarterly review after 13F filing deadlines
Monitor for distribution (early warning system)
If institutions are exiting, re-evaluate your thesis
Consider trimming if widespread institutional selling

Screening workflow integration:

Use Value Dividend Screener or other screeners to find candidates
Run Institutional Flow Tracker on top candidates
Prioritize stocks with institutional accumulation
Avoid stocks with institutional distribution

对于新建仓位：

对你的股票投资思路进行机构分析
寻找确认信号（机构也在增持）
若出现强烈看跌信号，重新考虑或降低仓位规模
若出现强烈看涨信号，增强对投资思路的信心

对于现有持仓：

在13F申报截止日后进行季度回顾
监控是否出现减持（预警信号）
若机构正在退出，重新评估你的投资思路
若出现普遍的机构减持，考虑减仓

筛选流程整合：

使用价值股息筛选工具或其他筛选工具找到候选标的
对顶级候选标的运行机构资金流追踪工具
优先选择机构增持的股票
回避机构减持的股票

Output Format

输出格式

All analysis generates structured markdown reports saved to repository root:

Filename convention:

institutional_flow_analysis_<TICKER/THEME>_<DATE>.md

Report sections:

Executive Summary (key findings)
Institutional Ownership Trend (current vs historical)
Top Holders and Changes
New Buyers vs Sellers
Concentration Analysis
Interpretation and Recommendations
Data Sources and Timestamp

所有分析都会生成结构化的Markdown报告，保存至仓库根目录：

文件名规则：

institutional_flow_analysis_<TICKER/THEME>_<DATE>.md

报告章节：

执行摘要（核心发现）
机构持仓趋势（当前 vs 历史）
顶级持有者及其变化
新增买方 vs 卖方
集中度分析
解读与建议
数据源与时间戳

Limitations and Caveats

局限性与注意事项

Data Lag:

13F filings have 45-day reporting delay
Positions may have changed since filing date
Use as confirming indicator, not leading signal

Coverage:

Only institutions managing >$100M are required to file
Excludes individual investors and smaller funds
International institutions may not file 13F

Reporting Rules:

Only long equity positions reported (no shorts, options, bonds)
Holdings as of quarter-end snapshot
Some positions may be confidential (delayed reporting)

Interpretation:

Correlation ≠ causation (stocks can fall despite institutional buying)
Consider overall market environment and fundamentals
Combine with technical analysis and other skills

数据滞后：

13F申报文件存在45天的报告延迟
自申报日起，持仓情况可能已发生变化
用作确认指标，而非领先信号

覆盖范围：

仅管理资产规模超过1亿美元的机构需要提交13F申报
不包括个人投资者和小型基金
国际机构可能无需提交13F申报

申报规则：

仅报告多头股票仓位（不包括空头、期权、债券）
持仓情况为季度末的快照
部分仓位可能保密（延迟申报）

解读注意：

相关性≠因果关系（即使有机构买入，股票仍可能下跌）
考虑整体市场环境和基本面情况
结合技术分析和其他技能使用

Advanced Use Cases

高级使用场景

Insider + Institutional Combo:

Look for stocks where both insiders AND institutions are buying
Particularly powerful signal when aligned

Sector Rotation Detection:

Track aggregate institutional flows by sector
Identify early rotation trends before they appear in price

Contrarian Plays:

Find quality stocks institutions are selling (potential value)
Requires strong fundamental conviction

Smart Money Validation:

Before major position, check if smart money agrees
Gain confidence or find overlooked risks

内幕交易+机构资金流组合分析：

寻找内部人士和机构同时买入的股票
两者信号一致时，参考价值极高

板块轮动检测：

追踪各板块的机构资金流总量
在价格变化前识别早期轮动趋势

逆向投资策略：

找到被机构减持的优质股票（潜在价值标的）
需要有强烈的基本面支撑

聪明资金验证：

在建立重大仓位前，查看聪明资金是否认同你的观点
增强信心或发现被忽视的风险

References

参考资料

The

references/

folder contains detailed guides:

13f_filings_guide.md - Comprehensive guide to 13F SEC filings, what they include, reporting requirements, and data quality considerations
institutional_investor_types.md - Different types of institutional investors (hedge funds, mutual funds, pension funds, etc.), their typical strategies, and how to interpret their moves
interpretation_framework.md - Detailed framework for interpreting institutional ownership changes, signal quality assessment, and integration with other analysis

references/

文件夹包含详细指南：

13f_filings_guide.md - 美国SEC 13F申报文件的全面指南，包括内容、申报要求和数据质量注意事项
institutional_investor_types.md - 不同类型的机构投资者（对冲基金、共同基金、养老基金等）、其典型策略及如何解读他们的操作
interpretation_framework.md - 解读机构持仓变化的详细框架、信号质量评估及与其他分析的整合方法

Script Parameters

脚本参数

track_institutional_flow.py

Main screening script for finding stocks with significant institutional changes.

Required:

```
--api-key
```
: FMP API key (or set FMP_API_KEY environment variable)

Optional:

```
--top N
```
: Return top N stocks by institutional change (default: 50)
```
--min-change-percent X
```
: Minimum % change in institutional ownership (default: 10)
```
--min-market-cap X
```
: Minimum market cap in dollars (default: 1B)
```
--sector NAME
```
: Filter by specific sector
```
--min-institutions N
```
: Minimum number of institutional holders (default: 10)
```
--output FILE
```
: Output JSON file path (default: institutional_flow_results.json)
```
--sort-by FIELD
```
: Sort by 'ownership_change', 'institution_count_change', 'dollar_value_change'

用于寻找机构持仓发生重大变化的股票的主筛选脚本。

必需参数：

```
--api-key
```
: FMP API密钥（或设置FMP_API_KEY环境变量）

可选参数：

```
--top N
```
: 返回按机构持仓变化排名前N的股票（默认：50）
```
--min-change-percent X
```
: 机构持仓变化的最小百分比（默认：10）
```
--min-market-cap X
```
: 最小市值（单位：美元，默认：10亿）
```
--sector NAME
```
: 按特定板块筛选
```
--min-institutions N
```
: 持有该股票的最小机构数量（默认：10）
```
--output FILE
```
: 输出JSON文件路径（默认：institutional_flow_results.json）
```
--sort-by FIELD
```
: 排序字段，可选'ownership_change', 'institution_count_change', 'dollar_value_change'

analyze_single_stock.py

Deep dive analysis on a specific stock's institutional ownership.

Required:

Ticker symbol (positional argument)
```
--api-key
```
: FMP API key (or set FMP_API_KEY environment variable)

Optional:

```
--quarters N
```
: Number of quarters to analyze (default: 8, i.e., 2 years)
```
--output FILE
```
: Output markdown report path
```
--compare-to TICKER
```
: Compare institutional ownership to another stock

对特定股票的机构持仓情况进行深度分析的脚本。

必需参数：

股票代码（位置参数）
```
--api-key
```
: FMP API密钥（或设置FMP_API_KEY环境变量）

可选参数：

```
--quarters N
```
: 分析的季度数量（默认：8，即2年）
```
--output FILE
```
: 输出Markdown报告的路径
```
--compare-to TICKER
```
: 将机构持仓与另一只股票进行对比

track_institution_portfolio.py

Track a specific institutional investor's portfolio changes.

Required:

```
--cik CIK
```
: Central Index Key of the institution
```
--name NAME
```
: Institution name for report
```
--api-key
```
: FMP API key (or set FMP_API_KEY environment variable)

Optional:

```
--top N
```
: Show top N holdings (default: 50)
```
--min-position-value X
```
: Minimum position value to include (default: 10M)
```
--output FILE
```
: Output markdown report path

追踪特定机构投资者投资组合变化的脚本。

必需参数：

```
--cik CIK
```
: 机构的中央索引键（CIK）
```
--name NAME
```
: 机构名称（用于报告）
```
--api-key
```
: FMP API密钥（或设置FMP_API_KEY环境变量）

可选参数：

```
--top N
```
: 显示前N大持仓（默认：50）
```
--min-position-value X
```
: 纳入分析的最小仓位价值（默认：1000万美元）
```
--output FILE
```
: 输出Markdown报告的路径

Integration with Other Skills

与其他技能的整合

Value Dividend Screener + Institutional Flow:

1. Run Value Dividend Screener to find candidates
2. For each candidate, check institutional flow
3. Prioritize stocks with rising institutional ownership

US Stock Analysis + Institutional Flow:

1. Run comprehensive fundamental analysis
2. Validate with institutional ownership trends
3. If institutions are selling, investigate why

Portfolio Manager + Institutional Flow:

1. Fetch current portfolio via Alpaca
2. Run institutional analysis on each holding
3. Flag positions with deteriorating institutional support
4. Consider rebalancing away from distribution

Technical Analyst + Institutional Flow:

1. Identify technical setup (e.g., breakout)
2. Check if institutional buying confirms
3. Higher conviction if both align

价值股息筛选工具+机构资金流追踪：

1. 使用价值股息筛选工具找到候选标的
2. 对每个候选标的检查机构资金流情况
3. 优先选择机构持仓上升的股票

美股分析+机构资金流追踪：

1. 进行全面的基本面分析
2. 用机构持仓趋势验证分析结果
3. 若机构正在减持，调查背后原因

投资组合管理器+机构资金流追踪：

1. 通过Alpaca获取当前投资组合
2. 对每个持仓标的进行机构分析
3. 标记机构支撑减弱的仓位
4. 考虑从被减持的标的中重新平衡仓位

技术分析师+机构资金流追踪：

1. 识别技术形态（如突破）
2. 检查机构买入是否确认该形态
3. 两者信号一致时，信心更高

Best Practices

最佳实践

Quarterly Reviews: Set calendar reminders for 13F filing deadlines
Multi-Quarter Trends: Look for sustained trends (3+ quarters), not one-time changes
Quality Over Quantity: Berkshire adding > 100 small funds adding
Context Matters: Rising ownership in a falling stock may be value investors catching a falling knife
Combine Signals: Never use institutional flow in isolation
Update Your Data: Re-run analysis each quarter as new 13Fs are filed

季度回顾： 设置日历提醒，关注13F申报截止日
多季度趋势： 寻找持续趋势（3个季度以上），而非一次性变化
质量优先： 伯克希尔的增持比100家小型基金的增持更有价值
结合背景： 股价下跌时的持仓上升可能是价值投资者接飞刀
组合信号： 切勿单独使用机构资金流信号
更新数据： 每季度新13F申报文件发布后，重新运行分析

Support & Resources

支持与资源

FMP API Documentation: https://financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs
SEC 13F Filings Database: https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=13F
Institutional Investor Database: https://whalewisdom.com (free tier available)

Note: This skill is designed for long-term investors (3-12 month horizon). For short-term trading, combine with technical analysis and other momentum indicators.

FMP API文档：https://financialmodelingprep.com/developer/docs
SEC 13F申报文件数据库：https://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&type=13F
机构投资者数据库：https://whalewisdom.com（提供免费层级）

注意： 该技能专为长期投资者设计（周期3-12个月）。若用于短期交易，请结合技术分析和其他动量指标。