Example: "Will it rain tomorrow?"

YES shares trading at $0.65
NO shares trading at $0.35

If you buy YES at $0.65 and it rains:
- You receive $1.00
- Profit: $0.35 (54% return)

If it doesn't rain:
- Shares worth $0.00
- Loss: $0.65

Prerequisites:
- openclawcli must be installed and running

Steps:
1. Visit polymarket.com
2. Connect with email or Web3 login
3. Deposit USDC (Polygon network)
4. Start trading

Each market has YES and NO shares
- Prices always sum to ~$1.00
- Price = implied probability
- $0.70 YES = 70% chance according to market

You can:
- Buy YES (bet it happens)
- Buy NO (bet it doesn't)
- Sell anytime before resolution

https://clob.polymarket.com
https://gamma-api.polymarket.com

# List all active markets
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&limit=100" | jq '.[] | {question, slug, outcomePrices}'

# Get specific market by slug
SLUG="will-trump-win-2024"
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?slug=$SLUG" | jq '.[0]'

CONDITION_ID="0x..."
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?condition_id=$CONDITION_ID" | jq

# Search by keyword
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?tag=politics&closed=false" | jq '.[] | {question, outcomePrices}'

# CLOB API for order book data
MARKET_ID="your-market-id"
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/book?market=$MARKET_ID" | jq

# Recent trades for a market
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/trades?market=$MARKET_ID&limit=50" | jq

- Elections (US, global)
- Policy decisions
- Legislation outcomes
- Government actions
- Geopolitical events

- Game outcomes
- Championship winners
- Player performance
- Transfer rumors
- Season records

- Earnings reports
- Product launches
- M&A activity
- IPO timing
- Executive changes

- Award shows
- Box office performance
- TV ratings
- Celebrity events
- Streaming numbers

- Climate data
- Space missions
- Scientific discoveries
- Natural events
- Health/pandemic

- Fed rate decisions
- Inflation data
- Employment numbers
- GDP reports
- Market indices

Strategy: Trade when you have better information than the market

Examples:
- Local knowledge (weather, events)
- Industry expertise
- Early access to data
- Research skills

Process:
1. Find market where you have edge
2. Assess if price reflects your info
3. Size position based on confidence
4. Monitor for new information

Strategy: Exploit price discrepancies

Types:
- Cross-platform (Polymarket vs Kalshi)
- Related markets (correlated outcomes)
- Yes/No mispricing (should sum to $1)

Example:
Market A: "Team wins championship" = $0.40
Market B: "Team makes finals" = $0.35

Arbitrage: Can't win championship without making finals
Action: Buy "makes finals" if you believe championship odds

Strategy: Follow price trends

Signals:
- Rapid price movement
- Volume spikes
- News catalysts
- Social sentiment

Process:
1. Identify trending markets
2. Confirm with volume
3. Enter with trend
4. Set stop-loss
5. Exit when momentum fades

Strategy: Bet on overreactions correcting

When to use:
- Sharp moves on minor news
- Emotional/sentiment driven spikes
- No fundamental change

Example:
- Celebrity rumor moves market 20%
- Rumor debunked
- Price should revert

Strategy: Trade around scheduled events

High-impact events:
- Election days
- Earnings releases
- Fed meetings
- Court decisions
- Sports games

Process:
1. Calendar upcoming events
2. Assess current pricing
3. Position before event
4. Or wait for live trading opportunities

Optimal bet size = (bp - q) / b

Where:
b = odds received (decimal - 1)
p = probability of winning (your estimate)
q = probability of losing (1 - p)

Example:
- Share price: $0.40 (market says 40%)
- Your estimate: 60% chance
- Potential profit if win: $0.60 per share

b = 0.60 / 0.40 = 1.5
p = 0.60
q = 0.40

Kelly = (1.5 × 0.60 - 0.40) / 1.5
Kelly = (0.90 - 0.40) / 1.5
Kelly = 0.33 (33% of bankroll)

Most traders use fractional Kelly (25-50%) for safety

Conservative:
- Max 5% per position
- Max 20% correlated exposure
- Always have exit plan

Moderate:
- Max 10% per position
- Max 30% correlated exposure
- Use stop-losses

Aggressive:
- Max 20% per position
- High conviction trades only
- Accept higher variance

# Questions to ask:

1. Why is this mispriced?
   - Information asymmetry?
   - Emotional trading?
   - Low liquidity?

2. What does the market know that I don't?
   - Check news sources
   - Review trading history
   - Analyze large positions

3. What's my edge?
   - Unique information?
   - Better analysis?
   - Faster reaction?

Base rate analysis:
1. Find historical frequency
2. Adjust for current context
3. Compare to market price
4. Identify gaps

Example: "Will Company X beat earnings?"
- Historical beat rate: 75%
- Current conditions: Strong sector
- Analyst sentiment: Positive
- Your estimate: 80%
- Market price: $0.65 (65%)
- Gap: 15 percentage points
- Action: Consider buying YES

# Check order book depth
curl -s "https://clob.polymarket.com/book?market=$MARKET_ID" | jq '{
  best_bid: .bids[0],
  best_ask: .asks[0],
  bid_depth: .bids | length,
  ask_depth: .asks | length
}'

Good liquidity indicators:
- Tight spread (<$0.02)
- Deep order book (>$10k each side)
- Active trading (>100 trades/day)

Poor liquidity warnings:
- Wide spread (>$0.05)
- Thin book (<$1k depth)
- Few recent trades

#!/bin/bash
# Monitor market price and alert on threshold

MARKET_SLUG="your-market-slug"
THRESHOLD_HIGH=0.70
THRESHOLD_LOW=0.30
CHECK_INTERVAL=60

while true; do
  PRICE=$(curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?slug=$MARKET_SLUG" | \
    jq -r '.[0].outcomePrices | fromjson | .["Yes"]')
  
  ALERT=""
  if (( $(echo "$PRICE > $THRESHOLD_HIGH" | bc -l) )); then
    ALERT="HIGH: $MARKET_SLUG at $PRICE"
  elif (( $(echo "$PRICE < $THRESHOLD_LOW" | bc -l) )); then
    ALERT="LOW: $MARKET_SLUG at $PRICE"
  fi
  
  if [ -n "$ALERT" ]; then
    echo "[$(date)] $ALERT"
    # Add notification here (telegram, email, etc)
  fi
  
  sleep $CHECK_INTERVAL
done

#!/bin/bash
# Track multiple positions

POSITIONS=(
  "market-slug-1:YES:100"
  "market-slug-2:NO:50"
)

echo "=== Portfolio Status ==="
echo "Date: $(date)"
echo ""

TOTAL_VALUE=0

for pos in "${POSITIONS[@]}"; do
  IFS=':' read -r SLUG SIDE SHARES <<< "$pos"
  
  DATA=$(curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?slug=$SLUG")
  QUESTION=$(echo $DATA | jq -r '.[0].question')
  PRICES=$(echo $DATA | jq -r '.[0].outcomePrices | fromjson')
  
  if [ "$SIDE" == "YES" ]; then
    PRICE=$(echo $PRICES | jq -r '.["Yes"]')
  else
    PRICE=$(echo $PRICES | jq -r '.["No"]')
  fi
  
  VALUE=$(echo "$SHARES * $PRICE" | bc)
  TOTAL_VALUE=$(echo "$TOTAL_VALUE + $VALUE" | bc)
  
  echo "Market: $QUESTION"
  echo "Position: $SHARES $SIDE @ \$$PRICE = \$$VALUE"
  echo ""
done

echo "=== Total Portfolio Value: \$$TOTAL_VALUE ==="

#!/bin/bash
# Find newly created markets

curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&limit=50&order=startDate&ascending=false" | \
  jq '.[] | {
    question: .question,
    created: .startDate,
    volume: .volume,
    liquidity: .liquidity,
    yes_price: (.outcomePrices | fromjson | .["Yes"])
  }'

- Status: Confirmed Q1-Q2 2026
- US market relaunch completed
- Distribution to active traders

High Value:
✓ Trading volume (most important)
✓ Number of markets traded
✓ Unique active days
✓ Early market participation
✓ Liquidity provision

Medium Value:
✓ Account age
✓ Consistent activity
✓ Diverse categories

Low/Unknown:
? Referrals
? Social engagement
? Winning percentage

Weekly targets:
□ Trade in 5+ different markets
□ $500+ weekly volume
□ Activity on 5+ unique days
□ At least 1 trade in new market
□ Mix of categories (politics, sports, etc)

Monthly review:
□ Total volume trending up
□ Market diversity maintained
□ No suspicious patterns
□ Consistent engagement

# Error: Cannot fetch market data
# Solution: Verify openclawcli is running

# Error: API timeout
# Solution: Check internet connection and restart openclawcli

# Error: Invalid response
# Solution: Update to latest openclawcli version

⚠️ Resolution Risk
- Ambiguous outcomes
- Disputed results  
- Delayed resolution

⚠️ Liquidity Risk
- Can't exit large positions
- Slippage on trades
- Illiquid markets

⚠️ Information Risk
- Late/wrong information
- Market manipulation
- Insider trading

⚠️ Smart Contract Risk
- Potential vulnerabilities
- Bridge risks (Polygon)

⚠️ Regulatory Risk
- US restrictions (now resolved)
- Future regulatory changes
- Regional limitations

⚠️ Oracle Risk
- Resolution source accuracy
- Oracle manipulation

Best Practices:
□ Diversify across markets
□ Don't oversize positions
□ Check resolution sources
□ Monitor for news
□ Keep some dry powder
□ Understand market rules before trading

Find related markets and trade the spread:

Example:
- "Candidate A wins primary" = $0.60
- "Candidate A wins general" = $0.35

If A must win primary to win general:
- General should be ≤ Primary
- Look for mispricings

Strategy for real-time events (sports, elections):

1. Pre-position before event
2. Watch live with market open
3. React faster than market
4. Scale in/out as odds shift

Tools needed:
- Fast data feed
- Quick execution
- Pre-planned scenarios

Reduce risk by offsetting positions:

Example:
- Long "Team A wins" at $0.50
- Event: Key player injured
- Hedge: Buy "Team A wins" NO to lock in smaller loss
- Or: Buy related "Team B wins" YES

Cost of hedge = insurance premium

curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&order=volume&ascending=false&limit=20" | \
  jq '.[] | {question, volume, liquidity}'

curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&order=endDate&ascending=true&limit=20" | \
  jq '.[] | {question, endDate, outcomePrices}'

curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?closed=false&order=liquidity&ascending=false&limit=20" | \
  jq '.[] | {question, liquidity, spread}'

# Politics
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?tag=politics&closed=false" | jq

# Sports  
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?tag=sports&closed=false" | jq

# Business
curl -s "https://gamma-api.polymarket.com/markets?tag=business&closed=false" | jq

| Date | Market | Side | Shares | Entry | Current | P&L | Notes |
|------|--------|------|--------|-------|---------|-----|-------|
| 1/15 | Election X | YES | 100 | $0.45 | $0.52 | +$7 | Holding |
| 1/18 | Game Y | NO | 50 | $0.30 | $0.25 | +$2.5 | Won |
| 1/20 | Event Z | YES | 75 | $0.60 | $0.55 | -$3.75 | Stop? |

- polymarket.com - Main platform
- docs.polymarket.com - Documentation
- Discord - Community (search Polymarket Discord)

- polymarket.com/activity - Platform activity
- dune.com - On-chain analytics
- parsec.finance - DeFi tracking

- @Polymarket on X
- @PolymarketBets on X  
- Prediction market newsletters
- Event-specific news sources

- Kalshi (US regulated)
- Manifold Markets (play money)
- Metaculus (forecasting)
- PredictIt (political)