market-sizer

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Market Sizer - TAM/SAM/SOM Calculator

市场规模测算工具 - TAM/SAM/SOM计算器

Overview

概述

Market sizing specialist applying Hexa's practical market assessment methodology. Help founders determine if their target market is big enough using rigorous bottom-up AND top-down analysis.

Hexa's Core Principle: "Make sure you can approximate how big the market is—ideally by confronting bottom-up and top-down analysis."

本工具是采用Hexa实用市场评估方法论的市场规模测算专家。通过严谨的自下而上和自上而下双重分析，帮助创业者判断目标市场是否足够大。

Hexa核心原则： “务必估算出市场规模大小——理想方式是结合自下而上与自上而下分析进行验证。”

When This Activates

触发场景

"how big is the market"
TAM, SAM, or SOM questions
"is the market big enough"
Validating market opportunity
Investor conversations about market
"size this opportunity"

"市场有多大"
涉及TAM、SAM或SOM的问题
"这个市场足够大吗"
验证市场机会
与投资者沟通市场相关内容
"测算这个机会的规模"

Core Definitions

核心定义

Term	Definition	What It Means
TAM	Total Addressable Market	Everyone who could theoretically buy
SAM	Serviceable Available Market	The segment you can actually reach
SOM	Serviceable Obtainable Market	What you can realistically capture in 3-5 years

术语	定义	含义
TAM	Total Addressable Market（总可寻址市场）	理论上所有可能购买产品的用户群体
SAM	Serviceable Available Market（可服务可用市场）	你实际能够触达的用户细分群体
SOM	Serviceable Obtainable Market（可服务可获得市场）	你在3-5年内能够实际占领的市场规模

The Framework: Dual-Analysis

分析框架：双重分析法

Market Size = Bottom-Up Analysis + Top-Down Analysis + Timing Assessment

市场规模 = 自下而上分析 + 自上而下分析 + 时机评估

Bottom-Up (Build from Units)

自下而上分析（从用户单位构建）

TAM = Total Potential Customers × Annual Revenue Per Customer
SAM = TAM × Percentage You Can Reach
SOM = SAM × Realistic Market Share (1-5% years 1-3)

TAM = 潜在总客户数 × 单客户年度营收
SAM = TAM × 你可触达的用户比例
SOM = SAM × 合理市场份额（第1-3年为1-5%）

Top-Down (Start from Industry)

自上而下分析（从行业数据切入）

Start with industry reports, narrow to your slice.

Common Sources: Gartner, Forrester, Statista, IBISWorld, CB Insights

从行业报告开始，逐步缩小到你的目标细分领域。

常见数据来源： Gartner、Forrester、Statista、IBISWorld、CB Insights

Market Size Adequacy Test

市场规模充足性测试

Your Goal	Required SOM	Required SAM
Lifestyle ($500K-2M/year)	$500K-2M	$10M+
Venture-scale ($10M+ ARR)	$10M+	$100M+
Unicorn potential ($100M+)	$100M+	$1B+

The 10% Rule: If you captured 10% of SAM, would that be interesting?

你的目标	所需SOM规模	所需SAM规模
生活方式型企业（年营收50万-200万美元）	50万-200万美元	1000万美元以上
风险投资规模企业（年营收1000万美元以上）	1000万美元以上	1亿美元以上
独角兽潜力企业（年营收1亿美元以上）	1亿美元以上	10亿美元以上

10%法则： 如果你占领了SAM的10%，这个结果是否具有吸引力？

Sanity Check

合理性校验

The two methods should be within 2-3x of each other.

Variance	Meaning	Action
< 50%	Good alignment	Proceed with confidence
50-200%	Reasonable	Investigate discrepancy
> 200%	Major misalignment	One method is wrong

两种分析方法的结果差异应在2-3倍以内。

差异幅度	含义	行动建议
< 50%	高度一致	可自信推进
50-200%	合理范围	调查差异原因
> 200%	严重不一致	其中一种分析方法存在错误

Market Stage Assessment

市场阶段评估

Stage	Characteristics	Implication
Emerging	< $100M, few players	High risk, high reward
Growing	20%+ growth, new entrants	Good timing
Mature	< 10% growth, clear leaders	Need strong wedge
Declining	Negative growth	Avoid unless transforming

阶段	特征	启示
新兴市场	规模<1亿美元，玩家较少	高风险高回报
增长市场	年增长率20%以上，新玩家不断进入	进入时机良好
成熟市场	年增长率<10%，头部玩家格局清晰	需要独特的切入点
衰退市场	负增长	除非有转型方案，否则避免进入

Integration

技能整合

Skill	When to Use
`idea-validator`	Validate the idea for this market
`startup-icp-definer`	Define ideal customer in this market
`competitive-intelligence-analyst`	Deep dive on competitors
`fundraise-advisor`	Present market size to investors

For complete bottom-up/top-down worksheets, market dynamics assessment, timing analysis framework, output format template, market size benchmarks by business type and ACV, and common mistakes to avoid, see:

references/full-guide.md

技能	使用场景
`idea-validator`	验证针对该市场的创业想法
`startup-icp-definer`	定义该市场的理想客户群体
`competitive-intelligence-analyst`	深入分析竞争对手
`fundraise-advisor`	向投资者展示市场规模数据

如需完整的自下而上/自上而下分析工作表、市场动态评估、时机分析框架、输出格式模板、按业务类型和ACV划分的市场规模基准以及需避免的常见错误，请查看：

references/full-guide.md