sales-forecast
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ChineseBuild a Revenue Forecast
构建收入预测
Help the user build and validate a revenue forecast — from category modeling through pipeline coverage analysis, deal-level inspection, and gap planning.
帮助用户构建并验证收入预测 —— 从类别建模到销售管道覆盖分析、交易层面审查，再到差距填补规划。
Step 1 — Gather context
步骤1 —— 收集上下文信息
Ask the user:
-
Scope:
- A) Individual rep forecast
- B) Team / pod forecast
- C) Regional forecast
- D) Company-wide forecast
-
Time period:
- Current quarter
- Next quarter
- Half / full year
- Custom period
-
What numbers do you have? (provide what you know)
- Quota / target
- Closed-won so far this period
- Commit (deals you're confident will close)
- Best case (deals that could close with things going right)
- Total open pipeline
- Average sales cycle length
- Historical win rate
-
What's your primary concern?
- A) We're behind quota and need a gap plan
- B) I need to validate my commit number
- C) I need to present a forecast to leadership
- D) Pipeline coverage feels thin
- E) Too many deals are slipping from commit to best case
- F) Other — describe it
If the user's request already provides most of this context, skip directly to the relevant step. Lead with your best-effort answer using reasonable assumptions (stated explicitly), then ask only the most critical 1-2 clarifying questions at the end — don't gate your response behind gathering complete context.
向用户询问：
-
范围：
- A) 单个销售代表的预测
- B) 团队/小组的预测
- C) 区域预测
- D) 公司整体预测
-
时间段：
- 当前季度
- 下一季度
- 半年/全年
- 自定义时间段
-
你已掌握哪些数据？（提供你已知的信息）
- 配额/目标
- 本时间段内已赢单金额
- 承诺额（你确信会完成的交易金额）
- 最佳情况（在顺利推进下可能完成的交易金额）
- 总未结销售管道金额
- 平均销售周期时长
- 历史赢单率
-
你最关注的问题是什么？
- A) 我们落后于配额，需要制定差距填补计划
- B) 我需要验证我的承诺额数据
- C) 我需要向管理层汇报预测情况
- D) 销售管道覆盖力度不足
- E) 太多交易从承诺额类别滑落到最佳情况类别
- F) 其他 —— 请具体说明
如果用户的请求已包含大部分上述上下文信息，可直接跳至相关步骤。 先基于合理假设（需明确说明）给出初步方案，最后仅询问最关键的1-2个澄清问题 —— 不要因等待完整上下文而延迟给出回复。
Step 2 — Forecast model
步骤2 —— 预测模型
Build a forecast model table:
| Category | # Deals | Total Value | Win Probability | Weighted Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Closed Won | 100% | |||
| Commit | 85-95% | |||
| Best Case | 40-60% | |||
| Pipeline (Stage 3+) | 15-30% | |||
| Early Pipeline (Stage 1-2) | 5-10% | |||
| Upside (not in pipeline yet) | 2-5% |
These are typical probability ranges — adjust based on the team's historical conversion data if available. Teams with strong qualification tend toward the higher end; teams early in building pipeline discipline should use the lower end.
构建预测模型表格：
| 类别 | 交易数量 | 总金额 | 赢单概率 | 加权金额 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 已赢单 | 100% | |||
| 承诺额 | 85-95% | |||
| 最佳情况 | 40-60% | |||
| 销售管道（阶段3及以上） | 15-30% | |||
| 早期销售管道（阶段1-2） | 5-10% | |||
| 额外潜力（尚未进入销售管道） | 2-5% |
以上为典型的概率范围 —— 如果有团队历史转化数据，可据此调整。资质审核严格的团队可采用范围上限；销售管道管理体系尚不完善的团队应采用范围下限。
Forecast summary
预测摘要
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Quota | |
| Closed Won | |
| Weighted forecast (sum of weighted values) | |
| Expected outcome (most likely landing zone) | |
| Gap to quota | |
| Coverage ratio (total pipeline / remaining quota) | |
| Commit coverage (commit / remaining quota) |
| 指标 | 数值 |
|---|---|
| 配额 | |
| 已赢单 | |
| 加权预测值（所有加权金额之和） | |
| 预期结果（最可能达成的区间） | |
| 与配额的差距 | |
| 覆盖比率（总销售管道金额 / 剩余配额） | |
| 承诺额覆盖率（承诺额 / 剩余差距） |
Forecast scenarios
预测场景
- Worst case: Closed Won + (Commit × 80%) — assumes some commit deals slip
- Most likely: Closed Won + (Commit × 90%) + (Best Case × 40%)
- Best case: Closed Won + (Commit × 95%) + (Best Case × 60%) + (Pipeline × 15%)
Present as a range: "Based on current pipeline, expect to land between $X (worst) and $Y (best), most likely around $Z."
- 最差情况：已赢单 +（承诺额 × 80%）—— 假设部分承诺额交易无法完成
- 最可能情况：已赢单 +（承诺额 × 90%）+（最佳情况 × 40%）
- 最佳情况：已赢单 +（承诺额 × 95%）+（最佳情况 × 60%）+（销售管道 × 15%）
以区间形式呈现：“基于当前销售管道情况，预计达成金额在$X（最差情况）至$Y（最佳情况）之间，最可能落在$Z左右。”
Step 3 — Pipeline coverage analysis
步骤3 —— 销售管道覆盖分析
| Metric | Current | Benchmark | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coverage ratio (pipeline / quota) | 3-4x for new business, 2-3x for expansion | Green/Yellow/Red | |
| Commit coverage (commit / remaining gap) | 1.0x+ means commit covers the gap | ||
| Average deal size | Compare to quota-required deal size | ||
| Average cycle length | Deals must have enough runway to close in period | ||
| Win rate | Historical vs. current period | ||
| Pipeline creation rate | $ created per week/month — is it accelerating or slowing? | ||
| Stage conversion rates | Stage 1→2, 2→3, 3→4, etc. — where are deals stalling? |
| 指标 | 当前值 | 基准值 | 状态 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 覆盖比率（销售管道金额 / 配额） | 新业务为3-4倍，拓展业务为2-3倍 | 绿色/黄色/红色 | |
| 承诺额覆盖率（承诺额 / 剩余差距） | 1.0倍及以上表示承诺额可覆盖差距 | ||
| 平均交易规模 | 与完成配额所需的平均交易规模对比 | ||
| 平均周期时长 | 交易需有足够时间在本时间段内完成 | ||
| 赢单率 | 历史数据与当前时间段数据对比 | ||
| 销售管道创建速率 | 每周/每月新增金额 —— 速率是在加快还是放缓？ | ||
| 阶段转化率 | 阶段1→2、2→3、3→4等 —— 交易在哪个阶段停滞？ |
Coverage analysis rules
覆盖分析规则
- Coverage < 2x: Critical — not enough pipeline to hit quota even optimistically. Immediate pipeline generation needed.
- Coverage 2-3x: Thin — likely to miss unless win rates are above average. Focus on deal acceleration and pipeline gen.
- Coverage 3-4x: Healthy for new business — focus on execution and deal quality.
- Coverage 4x+: Strong coverage — focus on deal progression and closing, not more pipeline.
- Commit > remaining gap: You have enough in commit to cover the gap. Focus shifts to deal execution and preventing slippage.
- Deals closing after period end: Flag any "commit" deals with close dates after the period ends — these aren't real commit.
- 覆盖比率 < 2倍：严重不足 —— 即使乐观估计，销售管道金额也不足以完成配额。需立即拓展销售管道。
- 覆盖比率 2-3倍：不足 —— 除非赢单率高于平均水平，否则可能无法完成配额。重点关注交易推进速度和销售管道拓展。
- 覆盖比率 3-4倍：新业务的健康水平 —— 重点关注执行质量和交易质量。
- 覆盖比率 4倍及以上：覆盖力度充足 —— 重点关注交易推进和完成，无需再拓展销售管道。
- 承诺额 > 剩余差距：承诺额可覆盖差距。重点转向交易执行，防止交易滑落。
- 交易完成日期晚于时间段结束：标记所有“承诺额”类别中完成日期晚于时间段结束的交易 —— 这些不属于有效承诺额。
Step 4 — Deal-level inspection
步骤4 —— 交易层面审查
For each deal in Commit and Best Case, create an inspection table:
| Deal | Value | Stage | Days in stage | Close date | Risk flags | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| High/Med/Low |
针对承诺额和最佳情况类别中的每笔交易，创建审查表格：
| 交易 | 金额 | 阶段 | 停留时长（天） | 完成日期 | 风险标记 | 信心水平 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 高/中/低 |
Risk flags to check
需检查的风险标记
- Close date pushed more than once
- No activity in 14+ days
- Single-threaded (one contact)
- No compelling event
- In stage longer than 2x average
- Economic buyer not engaged
- Competitor mentioned but not addressed
- Budget not confirmed
- 完成日期已被推迟不止一次
- 14天以上无任何活动
- 单线对接（仅一个联系人）
- 无明确的促成事件
- 停留时长超过平均周期的2倍
- 未对接经济决策人
- 提及竞争对手但未制定应对方案
- 预算未确认
Recommendations per deal
针对单笔交易的建议
For each deal, recommend one of:
- Keep in Commit: Strong deal, high confidence, clear path to close
- Move to Best Case: Has potential but too many open risks for commit
- Move to Pipeline: Significant unknowns — not ready for commit or best case
- Pull in: Deal could close faster than planned — what would accelerate it?
- Push to next period: Won't close this period — move out and plan accordingly
- Qualify out: Deal isn't real — remove from pipeline
针对每笔交易，推荐以下操作之一：
- 保留在承诺额类别：交易质量高、信心足，有明确的完成路径
- 移至最佳情况类别：有潜力但存在较多不确定风险，不适合留在承诺额类别
- 移至销售管道类别：存在重大未知因素 —— 暂不适合进入承诺额或最佳情况类别
- 提前完成：交易可能比计划更快完成 —— 如何加速推进？
- 推迟至下一时间段：无法在本时间段内完成 —— 移出当前预测并制定相应规划
- 排除：交易不具备真实性 —— 从销售管道中移除
Step 5 — Gap plan
步骤5 —— 差距填补计划
If there's a gap between the forecast and quota, build a plan to close it:
| Lever | Description | Potential value | Actions | Timeline |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pull-in | Accelerate deals currently slated for next period | Identify 2-3 deals that could close sooner with the right push (executive meeting, POC, special terms) | This week | |
| Accelerate stalls | Reactivate stalled pipeline deals | Re-engage with new value prop, bring in executive sponsor, offer assessment/workshop | 2 weeks | |
| Expansion | Upsell/cross-sell existing customers | Identify customers with low product adoption, recent growth, or upcoming renewal | 2-4 weeks | |
| New outbound | Create new pipeline via outbound | Blitz campaign to high-intent accounts, leverage trigger events (funding, hiring, tech changes) | 4-8 weeks | |
| Partner/referral | Source deals through partners or referrals | Activate partner relationships, request customer referrals, co-sell with tech partners | 2-6 weeks |
如果预测值与配额之间存在差距，制定填补计划：
| 杠杆 | 说明 | 潜在价值 | 行动 | 时间线 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 提前完成 | 加速原本计划在下一时间段完成的交易 | 找出2-3笔通过适当推动可提前完成的交易（如安排高管会议、POC、特殊条款） | 本周内 | |
| 激活停滞交易 | 重新激活销售管道中停滞的交易 | 用新的价值主张重新对接，引入高管支持，提供评估/研讨会 | 2周内 | |
| 业务拓展 | 向现有客户进行向上销售/交叉销售 | 找出产品使用率低、近期有增长或即将续约的客户 | 2-4周内 | |
| 新增外呼 | 通过外呼拓展新的销售管道 | 针对高意向客户开展集中营销活动，利用触发事件（融资、招聘、技术变更） | 4-8周内 | |
| 合作伙伴/推荐 | 通过合作伙伴或客户推荐获取交易 | 激活合作伙伴关系，请求客户推荐，与技术合作伙伴联合销售 | 2-6周内 |
For each lever, answer:
针对每个杠杆，需明确：
- How much can it realistically contribute? (be conservative — gap plans are usually optimistic)
- What specific actions will you take this week? (not "do more outbound" — specific companies, people, messages)
- Who owns it? (rep, manager, SE, executive)
- When will you know if it's working? (set a checkpoint date)
- 实际可贡献多少价值？（保守估算 —— 差距填补计划通常会偏乐观）
- 本周将采取哪些具体行动？（不要只说“增加外呼” —— 要明确具体公司、对接人、沟通内容）
- 负责人是谁？（销售代表、经理、解决方案工程师、高管）
- 何时能判断是否有效？（设置检查节点日期）
Gap plan math
差距填补计划计算逻辑
- Gap: Quota − (Closed Won + Weighted Commit + Weighted Best Case)
- Gap plan target: Gap × 1.5 (plan for more than you need, since not all levers will work)
- Minimum viable gap close: At least 50% of gap plan should come from Pull-in and Accelerate (fastest to materialize)
- 差距：配额 −（已赢单 + 加权承诺额 + 加权最佳情况）
- 差距填补目标：差距 × 1.5（计划填补的金额需超过实际差距，因为并非所有杠杆都能生效）
- 最低有效填补要求：至少50%的差距填补目标需来自“提前完成”和“激活停滞交易”杠杆（见效最快）
Related skills
相关技能
- — Salesloft Forecast module for submission workflows and AI-assisted predictions
/sales-salesloft - — Deep-dive on individual deals in your forecast
/sales-deal-inspect - — Portfolio-level pipeline management and deal prioritization
/sales-pipeline - — Build outbound cadences for gap-plan pipeline generation
/sales-cadence - — Closing strategies for commit deals
/sales-close - — Not sure which skill to use? The router matches any sales objective to the right skill. Install:
/sales-donpx skills add sales-skills/sales --skills sales-do
- —— 用于提交流程和AI辅助预测的Salesloft Forecast模块
/sales-salesloft - —— 对预测中的单个交易进行深度分析
/sales-deal-inspect - —— 组合层面的销售管道管理和交易优先级排序
/sales-pipeline - —— 为差距填补计划构建外呼节奏
/sales-cadence - —— 承诺额交易的完成策略
/sales-close - —— 不确定该使用哪个技能？该路由可将任何销售目标匹配到合适的技能。安装命令：
/sales-donpx skills add sales-skills/sales --skills sales-do
Gotchas
注意事项
- Don't use pipeline total without weighting by stage. Claude will sometimes say "you have $2M in pipeline against a $1M quota, so you're covered." Raw pipeline total is meaningless — only weighted pipeline matters. Always apply stage-based win probabilities.
- Don't assume historical win rates apply to the current quarter. Win rates shift based on deal mix, market conditions, new competitors, and team changes. If the user provides historical rates, use them as a starting point but flag that current-quarter dynamics may differ.
- Don't forget to account for slipped deals from last quarter. Deals that pushed from last quarter inflate current-quarter pipeline but often have lower close probability (they already missed one deadline). Flag these and weight them more conservatively.
- Don't ignore seasonality. Q4 and fiscal year-end typically see higher close rates due to budget pressure. Q1 often sees longer cycles as budgets reset. Ask about the company's fiscal year when it matters.
- Don't present a single forecast number without a range. Always give worst/most likely/best case scenarios. A single number creates false precision and sets the user up for a bad forecast call.
- 不要直接使用销售管道总金额，需按阶段加权。 Claude有时会说“你有200万美元的销售管道，而配额是100万美元，所以已经达标。” 原始销售管道总金额没有意义 —— 只有加权销售管道金额才重要。务必应用基于阶段的赢单概率。
- 不要假设历史赢单率适用于当前季度。 赢单率会随交易组合、市场环境、新竞争对手和团队变动而变化。如果用户提供了历史数据，可将其作为起点，但需标记当前季度的动态可能有所不同。
- 不要忽略上一季度滑落的交易。 从上一季度推迟到当前季度的交易会夸大当前销售管道金额，但通常赢单概率更低（它们已经错过了一个截止日期）。标记这些交易并采用更保守的加权方式。
- 不要忽略季节性因素。 第四季度和财年末通常因预算压力而有更高的赢单率。第一季度通常因预算重置而周期更长。必要时询问公司的财年时间。
- 不要只给出单个预测数值，需提供区间范围。 始终给出最差/最可能/最佳情况的区间。单个数值会造成虚假的精准感，让用户在预测会议中陷入被动。
Examples
示例
Example 1: Quarterly forecast build
示例1：季度预测构建
User says: "Build my team's Q2 forecast. Quota is $2M, we've closed $800k, commit is $600k across 4 deals, best case is $400k, total pipeline is $1.8M, 6 weeks left."
Skill does:
- Builds a forecast model with weighted values across all categories
- Calculates coverage ratio (1.5x — flags as thin)
- Presents worst/most likely/best case scenarios
- Creates a gap plan with specific levers to close the gap Result: Complete forecast ready for the leadership call, with a gap plan if needed
用户需求：“构建我的团队第二季度预测。配额是200万美元，我们已经完成80万美元，承诺额是60万美元（涉及4笔交易），最佳情况是40万美元，总销售管道金额是180万美元，剩余6周时间。”
技能执行操作：
- 构建包含所有类别加权金额的预测模型
- 计算覆盖比率（1.5倍 —— 标记为不足）
- 呈现最差/最可能/最佳情况的区间
- 创建具体的差距填补计划 结果：可直接用于管理层会议的完整预测报告，以及必要的差距填补计划
Example 2: Commit validation
示例2：承诺额验证
User says: "Validate my $500k commit — Deal A ($200k, negotiation, strong champion), Deal B ($150k, proposal, no EB meeting), Deal C ($150k, demo stage, verbal interest only)."
Skill does:
- Inspects each deal against risk criteria
- Recommends keeping Deal A in commit, moving Deal B to best case, moving Deal C to pipeline
- Adjusts commit to $200-350k with reasoning Result: Defensible commit number the rep can present to their manager
用户需求：“验证我的50万美元承诺额 —— 交易A（20万美元，谈判阶段，有强力支持者），交易B（15万美元，提案阶段，未对接经济决策人），交易C（15万美元，演示阶段，仅口头表达兴趣）。”
技能执行操作：
- 根据风险标准审查每笔交易
- 建议将交易A保留在承诺额类别，交易B移至最佳情况类别，交易C移至销售管道类别
- 将承诺额调整为20-35万美元并说明理由 结果：销售代表可向经理汇报的、具有说服力的承诺额数据
Troubleshooting
故障排查
Don't have all the numbers
缺少部分数据
Solution: Start with what you know. The skill can build a useful forecast from just quota + closed-won + pipeline total. It will flag what's missing and estimate where possible. Even a rough forecast with assumptions stated is better than no forecast.
解决方案：从已知数据入手。仅通过配额 + 已赢单 + 销售管道总金额，技能就能构建有用的预测。它会标记缺失的数据并在可能的情况下进行估算。即使是带有明确假设的粗略预测，也比没有预测要好。
Forecast keeps missing — always too optimistic
预测总是偏差 —— 过于乐观
Solution: Apply stricter win probability weights. Most teams over-weight commit (use 85% not 95%) and best case (use 40% not 60%). Check for "commit creep" — deals that sit in commit for multiple forecast periods without closing. The deal-level inspection step catches these patterns.
解决方案：采用更严格的赢单概率权重。大多数团队会高估承诺额（用85%而非95%）和最佳情况（用40%而非60%）的权重。检查是否存在“承诺额膨胀”问题 —— 即多轮预测中一直留在承诺额类别但未完成的交易。交易层面的审查步骤可发现此类模式。
Gap plan feels unrealistic
差距填补计划不切实际
Solution: Apply the 50% rule — at least half of gap plan value should come from pull-in and accelerate levers (fastest to materialize). New outbound takes 4-8 weeks to generate pipeline, so it won't help this quarter. Be conservative on each lever and plan for 1.5x the gap.
解决方案：应用50%规则 —— 至少50%的差距填补目标需来自“提前完成”和“激活停滞交易”杠杆（见效最快）。新增外呼需要4-8周才能拓展销售管道，对当前季度没有帮助。对每个杠杆进行保守估算，并按差距的1.5倍制定计划。