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Calci Prediction Market (Kalshi)

Calci预测市场（Kalshi）

Calci’s prediction-market layer is built on Kalshi. This skill provides the domain model, trading mechanics, and API conventions you need to reason about Calci/Kalshi data and to explain it clearly to users.
Calci的预测市场层基于Kalshi构建。本技能提供领域模型、交易机制以及API规范，帮助你理解Calci/Kalshi相关数据，并向用户清晰解释这些内容。

Core Mental Model

核心思维模型

  1. Binary event contracts
    • Every tradable contract is Yes/No on a real‑world outcome.
    • A winning side pays $1, losing side pays $0.
    • Prices between $0.01–$0.99 represent implied probability.
  2. Implied probability
    • If a Yes contract trades at $0.74, the market implies ~74% chance of Yes.
    • No price is complementary (roughly 1 − Yes, ignoring fees/spread).
  3. Fully collateralized
    • Users pay maximum loss up‑front. No margin/leverage.
    • You can never lose more than you spend on contracts.
  1. 二元事件合约
    • 每个可交易合约都是针对现实世界结果的是/否合约。
    • 获胜方将获得1美元，失败方获得0美元。
    • 0.01-0.99美元之间的价格代表隐含概率。
  2. 隐含概率
    • 如果“是”合约的交易价格为0.74美元，则市场隐含该结果发生的概率约为74%。
    • “否”合约的价格是互补的（大致为1 - “是”价格，不含手续费/点差）。
  3. 全额抵押
    • 用户需预先支付最大损失金额。无保证金/杠杆机制。
    • 你永远不会损失超过购买合约所花费的金额。

Data Hierarchy (Kalshi → Calci)

数据层级（Kalshi → Calci）

Kalshi uses a strict hierarchy:
  • Series → template for recurring markets (shared rules/settlement).
  • Event → specific instance within a series (a real‑world occurrence).
  • Market → single binary contract within an event (one Yes/No outcome).
Calci mirrors these objects. When you see “market” in Calci UI, clarify whether it’s an event page (container) or a specific market outcome (binary leg).
Kalshi采用严格的层级结构：
  • Series（系列） → 周期性市场的模板（共享规则/结算方式）。
  • Event（事件） → 系列中的具体实例（某一现实事件）。
  • Market（市场） → 事件中的单个二元合约（一个“是/否”结果选项）。
Calci镜像了这些对象。当在Calci界面中看到“market”时，需明确说明它是指事件页面（容器）还是特定市场结果（二元合约分支）。

Market Objects: What Fields Mean

市场对象：字段含义解析

When interpreting Calci/Kalshi market JSON:
  • ticker: unique identifier (string).
  • event_ticker / series_ticker: parent identifiers.
  • title / subtitle: human‑readable question and clarification.
  • yes_bid / yes_ask (cents) and _dollars: best prices to buy/sell Yes.
  • no_bid / no_ask: best prices to buy/sell No.
  • last_price: last traded Yes price.
  • volume / volume_24h / open_interest: activity and outstanding contracts.
  • open_time / close_time / expiration_time: lifecycle timestamps.
  • status: initialized, active/open, closed, settled.
  • result / settlement_value: set after resolution.
解读Calci/Kalshi市场JSON数据时：
  • ticker：唯一标识符（字符串类型）。
  • event_ticker / series_ticker：父级标识符。
  • title / subtitle：便于人类阅读的问题及说明。
  • yes_bid / yes_ask（美分）以及_dollars：买卖“是”合约的最优价格。
  • no_bid / no_ask：买卖“否”合约的最优价格。
  • last_price：最近一次“是”合约的成交价格。
  • volume / volume_24h / open_interest：交易活跃度及未平仓合约数量。
  • open_time / close_time / expiration_time：生命周期时间戳。
  • status：初始化中、活跃/开放、已关闭、已结算。
  • result / settlement_value：结果确认后设置的值。

Trading Mechanics to Explain

需解释的交易机制

  • Order book on both Yes and No sides.
  • Quick/market order crosses current spread for immediate fill.
  • Limit order rests at a chosen price; may add liquidity.
  • Closing a position = taking the opposite side later (sell Yes or buy No).
  • Mutually exclusive events contain multiple markets where at most one can settle Yes.
Fees on Kalshi are variable/quadratic, roughly a percent of potential profit; maker orders may be discounted.
  • “是”和“否”双方均有订单簿。
  • 快速/市价订单会穿越当前点差以立即成交。
  • 限价订单会停留在选定价格，可能增加市场流动性。
  • 平仓 = 后续进行反向操作（卖出“是”合约或买入“否”合约）。
  • 互斥事件包含多个市场，其中最多只有一个市场会以“是”结算。
Kalshi的手续费是可变/二次型的，约为潜在利润的一定比例；做市订单可能享受折扣。

Settlement & Resolution

结算与结果确认

  • Each series defines official settlement sources and rules.
  • Markets usually close before the strike/decision time, then settle after confirmation.
  • Some markets can resolve early if 
    can_close_early
    is true.
When asked “how does this resolve?”, reference the series rules and settlement source, then restate in plain language.
  • 每个系列都定义了官方结算来源和规则。
  • 市场通常在触发/决策时间前关闭，然后在结果确认后进行结算。
  • 如果
    can_close_early
    为真，部分市场可提前结算。
当被问及“该市场如何结算？”时，请参考系列规则和结算来源，然后用通俗易懂的语言重新表述。

API Conventions You Should Use

应遵循的API规范

Public data (no auth needed):
  • GET /series
  • GET /events
    (events include their markets)
  • GET /markets
  • GET /market/{ticker}
  • GET /market/orderbook
  • GET /market/candlesticks
  • GET /market/trades
  • GET /exchange/status
Trading/account (auth required):
  • POST /orders
    , 
    DELETE /orders/{id}
    , 
    GET /orders/{id}
  • POST /order-groups
    and related order‑group endpoints
  • GET /portfolio/balance
    , 
    GET /portfolio/positions
    , 
    GET /portfolio/fills
Auth uses an API key id plus RSA signature headers:
  • KALSHI-ACCESS-KEY
  • KALSHI-ACCESS-TIMESTAMP
  • KALSHI-ACCESS-SIGNATURE
Real‑time updates arrive via WebSocket subscriptions to tickers.
公开数据（无需授权）：
  • GET /series
  • GET /events
    （事件包含其下属市场）
  • GET /markets
  • GET /market/{ticker}
  • GET /market/orderbook
  • GET /market/candlesticks
  • GET /market/trades
  • GET /exchange/status
交易/账户相关（需授权）：
  • POST /orders
    , 
    DELETE /orders/{id}
    , 
    GET /orders/{id}
  • POST /order-groups
    及相关订单组端点
  • GET /portfolio/balance
    , 
    GET /portfolio/positions
    , 
    GET /portfolio/fills
授权需使用API密钥ID加上RSA签名请求头：
  • KALSHI-ACCESS-KEY
  • KALSHI-ACCESS-TIMESTAMP
  • KALSHI-ACCESS-SIGNATURE
实时更新通过WebSocket订阅交易代码（ticker）获取。

How to Apply This Skill When Answering

回答时如何应用本技能

  1. Map Calci terms → Kalshi terms if the user is vague.
  2. Always distinguish Series/Event/Market and restate which level you’re discussing.
  3. Convert price to probability explicitly when helpful.
  4. Explain both sides (Yes/No) and spreads when discussing pricing or order books.
  5. Cite rules + settlement source for resolution questions.
  6. Stay neutral: describe mechanics and risks; don’t give financial advice.
  1. 如果用户表述模糊，将Calci术语映射为Kalshi术语。
  2. 始终区分Series/Event/Market，并重新说明你所讨论的层级。
  3. 如有帮助，明确将价格转换为概率。
  4. 讨论定价或订单簿时，解释“是/否”双方及点差。
  5. 回答结算相关问题时，引用规则+结算来源。
  6. 保持中立：仅描述机制和风险；不提供金融建议。

Examples

示例

  • “This Calci market is a Kalshi market ticker. It’s a binary contract paying $1 if Yes. At $0.62, the market implies ~62% Yes probability.”
  • “The event is mutually exclusive, so each candidate outcome is a separate market. Exactly one can settle Yes.”
  • “To get real‑time prices, subscribe to the market tickers on the Kalshi WebSocket; Calci mirrors those updates.”
For more detail, see reference.md.
  • “这个Calci市场是一个Kalshi市场交易代码。它是一个二元合约，若结果为‘是’则支付1美元。当前价格0.62美元意味着市场隐含该结果发生的概率约为62%。”
  • “该事件是互斥事件，因此每个候选结果对应一个独立市场。最终只会有一个市场以‘是’结算。”
  • “要获取实时价格，需通过Kalshi WebSocket订阅市场交易代码；Calci会同步这些更新。”
如需更多细节，请参阅reference.md。