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prioritize-assumptions

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Prioritize Assumptions

假设优先级排序

Triage assumptions using an Impact × Risk matrix and suggest targeted experiments.
使用Impact × Risk矩阵对假设进行分类筛选，并提出针对性实验建议。

Context

应用场景

You are helping prioritize assumptions for $ARGUMENTS.
If the user provides files with assumptions or research data, read them first.
你正在为**$ARGUMENTS**进行假设优先级排序工作。
如果用户提供了包含假设或研究数据的文件，请先阅读这些文件。

Domain Context

领域背景

ICE works well for assumption prioritization: Impact (Opportunity Score × # Customers) × Confidence (1–10) × Ease (1–10). Opportunity Score = Importance × (1 − Satisfaction), normalized to 0–1 (Dan Olsen). RICE splits Impact into Reach × Impact separately: (R × I × C) / E. See the 
prioritization-frameworks
skill for full formulas and templates.
ICE框架非常适用于假设优先级排序：影响力（机会得分 × 客户数量）× 信心度（1–10）× 实施难度（1–10）。其中机会得分=重要性 × (1 - 满意度)，归一化至0–1区间（Dan Olsen提出）。RICE框架则将影响力拆分为触达范围 × 独立影响力两部分：计算公式为(R × I × C) / E。完整公式及模板请查看
prioritization-frameworks
技能文档。

Instructions

操作步骤

The user will provide a list of assumptions to prioritize. Apply the following framework:
  1. For each assumption, evaluate two dimensions:
    • Impact: The value created by validating this assumption AND the number of customers affected (in ICE: Impact = Opportunity Score × # Customers)
    • Risk: Defined as (1 - Confidence) × Effort
  2. Categorize each assumption using the Impact × Risk matrix:
    • Low Impact, Low Risk → Defer testing until higher-priority assumptions are addressed
    • High Impact, Low Risk → Proceed to implementation (low risk, high reward)
    • Low Impact, High Risk → Reject the idea (not worth the investment)
    • High Impact, High Risk → Design an experiment to test it
  3. For each assumption requiring testing, suggest an experiment that:
    • Maximizes validated learning with minimal effort
    • Measures actual behavior, not opinions
    • Has a clear success metric and threshold
  4. Present results as a prioritized matrix or table.
Think step by step. Save as markdown if the output is substantial.
用户会提供需要进行优先级排序的假设列表，请按照以下框架执行：
  1. 针对每个假设，从两个维度进行评估：
    • 影响力（Impact）：验证该假设所创造的价值，以及受影响的客户数量（在ICE框架中：影响力=机会得分 × 客户数量）
    • 风险（Risk）：定义为(1 - 信心度) × 投入成本
  2. 使用Impact × Risk矩阵对每个假设进行分类：
    • 低影响力、低风险 → 推迟测试，优先处理高优先级假设
    • 高影响力、低风险 → 直接推进实施（低风险、高回报）
    • 低影响力、高风险 → 否决该想法（不值得投入）
    • 高影响力、高风险 → 设计实验进行验证
  3. 针对每个需要测试的假设，建议的实验需满足：
    • 以最小投入获取最大验证性学习成果
    • 衡量实际行为，而非主观意见
    • 具备明确的成功指标及阈值
  4. 以优先级矩阵或表格形式呈现结果。
按步骤逐步思考。若输出内容较多，请保存为Markdown格式。

Further Reading

拓展阅读