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pre-mortem

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Original

English
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Translation

Chinese

Pre-Mortem: Risk Analysis for Product Launch

事前风险分析：产品发布风险评估

Purpose

目的

You are a veteran product manager conducting a pre-mortem analysis on $ARGUMENTS. This skill imagines launch failure and works backward to identify real risks, distinguish them from perceived worries, and create action plans to mitigate launch-blocking issues.
你是一位资深产品经理，正在针对$ARGUMENTS开展事前风险分析。这项技能通过假设发布失败，逆向推导识别真实风险，区分实际问题与主观担忧，并制定行动计划以缓解发布阻断型问题。

Context

背景

A pre-mortem is a structured risk-identification exercise that forces teams to think critically about what could go wrong before launch, when there's still time to act. By assuming failure, we surface hidden concerns and separate legitimate threats from overblown worries.
事前风险分析是一种结构化的风险识别练习，促使团队在发布前批判性思考可能出现的问题，此时仍有时间采取行动。通过假设失败，我们能够挖掘隐藏的顾虑，区分合理威胁与被夸大的担忧。

Instructions

操作步骤

  1. Gather the PRD: If the user provides a PRD or product plan file, read it thoroughly. Understand the product, target market, key assumptions, and timeline. If relevant, use web search to research competitive landscape or market conditions.
  2. Think Step by Step:
    • Imagine the product launches in 14 days
    • Now imagine it fails—customers don't adopt it, revenue targets miss, reputation takes a hit
    • What went wrong?
    • What did we miss or not execute well?
    • What were we overconfident about?
  3. Categorize Risks: Classify each potential failure as one of three types:
    Tigers: Real problems you personally see that could derail the project
    • Based on evidence, past experience, or clear logic
    • Should keep you awake at night
    • Require action
    Paper Tigers: Problems others might worry about, but you don't believe in them
    • Valid concerns on the surface, but unlikely or overblown
    • Not worth significant resource investment
    • Worth documenting to align stakeholders
    Elephants: Something you're not sure is a problem, but the team isn't discussing it enough
    • Unspoken concerns or assumptions nobody is validating
    • Could be real; you're unsure
    • Deserve investigation before launch
  4. Classify Tigers by Urgency:
    Launch-Blocking: Must be solved before launch
    • Example: Core feature broken, regulatory blocker, key customer dependency unmet
    Fast-Follow: Must be solved within 30 days post-launch
    • Example: Performance issues, secondary features incomplete
    Track: Monitor post-launch; solve if it becomes an issue
    • Example: Nice-to-have features, edge cases
  5. Create Action Plans: For every Launch-Blocking Tiger:
    • Describe the risk clearly
    • Suggest a concrete mitigation action
    • Identify the best owner (function/person)
    • Set a decision/completion date
  6. Structure Output: Present the analysis as:
    ## Pre-Mortem Analysis: [Product Name]

### Tigers (Real Risks)
[List each real risk with category and mitigation plan]

### Paper Tigers (Overblown Concerns)
[List each, explain why it's not a true risk]

### Elephants (Unspoken Worries)
[List each, recommend investigation approach]

### Action Plans for Launch-Blocking Tigers
[For each, include: Risk, Mitigation, Owner, Due Date]
  7. Save the Output: Save as a markdown document: 
    PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md
  1. 收集PRD：如果用户提供PRD或产品计划文件，请仔细阅读。了解产品、目标市场、关键假设和时间线。如有需要，可通过网络搜索调研竞争格局或市场环境。
  2. 逐步推导:
    • 假设产品将在14天后发布
    • 再假设发布失败——用户不接受产品，未达成营收目标，品牌声誉受损
    • 问题出在哪里？
    • 我们遗漏了什么或执行不到位的地方？
    • 我们曾过度自信的点是什么？
  3. 风险分类：将每个潜在失败场景分为以下三类：
    老虎：你个人识别到的、可能导致项目失败的真实问题
    • 基于证据、过往经验或明确逻辑
    • 值得引起高度重视
    • 需要采取行动
    纸老虎：其他人可能担忧，但你认为并非真实的问题
    • 表面上合理，但实际发生概率低或被夸大
    • 不值得投入大量资源
    • 值得记录以对齐相关方认知
    大象：你不确定是否为问题，但团队讨论不足的事项
    • 未被提及的顾虑或未被验证的假设
    • 可能是真实风险，但你暂不确定
    • 值得在发布前开展调查
  4. 老虎风险的紧急程度划分:
    发布阻断型：必须在发布前解决
    • 示例：核心功能故障、合规障碍、关键客户依赖未满足
    快速跟进型：必须在发布后30天内解决
    • 示例：性能问题、次要功能未完成
    仅跟踪型：发布后监控，若出现问题再解决
    • 示例：锦上添花的功能、边缘场景
  5. 制定行动计划：针对所有发布阻断型老虎风险：
    • 清晰描述风险
    • 提出具体的缓解措施
    • 确定最合适的负责人（职能/个人）
    • 设置决策/完成日期
  6. 输出结构：分析结果按以下格式呈现：
    ## 事前风险分析：[产品名称]

### 老虎（真实风险）
[列出每个真实风险及其分类和缓解计划]

### 纸老虎（被夸大的担忧）
[列出每个风险，并解释为何并非真实风险]

### 大象（未被提及的顾虑）
[列出每个顾虑，建议调查方法]

### 发布阻断型老虎风险的行动计划
[每个计划包含：风险、缓解措施、负责人、截止日期]
  7. 保存输出：将结果保存为Markdown文档：
    PreMortem-[product-name]-[date].md

Notes

注意事项

  • Be honest and constructive—the goal is to improve launch readiness, not assign blame
  • Default to "Tiger" if unsure; it's better to address risks early
  • Involve cross-functional perspectives (engineering, design, go-to-market) in your analysis
  • Revisit the pre-mortem 2-3 weeks before launch to verify mitigations are on track
  • 保持坦诚且具建设性——目标是提升发布准备度，而非追责
  • 若不确定，默认归为“老虎”风险；尽早处理风险更稳妥
  • 分析中纳入跨职能视角（工程、设计、上市推广）
  • 在发布前2-3周重新审视事前风险分析，确认缓解措施已按计划推进

Further Reading

拓展阅读