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Identify Assumptions (New Product)

识别新产品假设

Comprehensive risk identification across 8 categories — extending the 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits) with Ethics, Go-to-Market, Strategy & Objectives, and Team risks that are critical for new products.
全面识别8大类别中的风险——在Teresa Torres所著《Continuous Discovery Habits》提出的4项核心产品风险基础上，新增了对新产品至关重要的伦理、Go-to-Market、战略与目标以及团队风险。

Context

背景信息

You are evaluating assumptions for a new product: $ARGUMENTS.
If the user provides files (business plans, research), read them first.
你正在评估一款新产品的假设：$ARGUMENTS。
如果用户提供了文件（如商业计划书、研究报告），请先阅读这些文件。

Domain Context

领域背景

The 4 core product risks (Teresa Torres, Continuous Discovery Habits): Value, Usability, Viability, Feasibility.
For new products, extend to 8 risk categories. Good teams assume at least three-quarters of their ideas won't perform as they hope.
4项核心产品风险（Teresa Torres，《Continuous Discovery Habits》）：价值、易用性、可行性、可落地性。
针对新产品，扩展至8大风险类别。 优秀的团队会假设至少四分之三的创意无法达到预期效果。

Instructions

操作步骤

The user will describe the product concept, target segment, and feature idea. Work through these steps:
  1. Think from three perspectives about why this product might fail:
    • Product Manager: Market demand, willingness to pay, competitive landscape
    • Designer: First-time user experience, onboarding, engagement
    • Engineer: Build vs. buy decisions, scalability, technical debt
  2. Identify assumptions across 8 risk categories:
    • Value: Will it create value for customers? Will they keep using it?
    • Usability: Will people figure out how to use it? Can we onboard them fast enough? Will it increase cognitive load?
    • Viability: Can we sell/monetize/finance it? Is it worth the cost? Can we support customers and help them succeed? Can we scale? Will it be compliant?
    • Feasibility: Can we do it with the current technology? Is this integration possible? Can it be efficient? Can we scale it?
    • Ethics: Should we do it at all? Are there any ethical considerations? Will it pose a risk for our customers?
    • Go-to-Market (especially critical for new products): Can we market it? Do we have the required channels? Can we convince customers to try it? Is this the right messaging for this channel? Is this the right time? Is this the right way to launch it?
    • Strategy & Objectives: What are our assumptions? Can others copy our strategy? Have we considered political, economic, legal, technological, and environmental factors? Are those the best problems to solve?
    • Team: How well will the team work together? Do we have the right people? Do we have the right tools? Will the entire team stay with us long enough?
  3. For each assumption, rate confidence and suggest a test.
Think step by step. Save as markdown.
用户将描述产品概念、目标受众群体以及功能创意。请按照以下步骤操作：
  1. 从三个视角思考该产品可能失败的原因：
    • 产品经理视角：市场需求、付费意愿、竞争格局
    • 设计师视角：首次用户体验、用户引导、用户参与度
    • 工程师视角：自研 vs 外购决策、可扩展性、技术债务
  2. 识别8大风险类别中的假设：
    • 价值：它能为客户创造价值吗？客户会持续使用吗？
    • 易用性：用户能快速上手吗？我们能否高效完成用户引导？它会增加用户认知负担吗？
    • 可行性：我们能否通过销售/变现/融资支撑它？它的投入产出比是否合理？我们能否为客户提供支持并助力他们成功？我们能否实现规模化？它是否合规？
    • 可落地性：凭借现有技术我们能否实现它？这种集成是否可行？它能否高效运行？我们能否将其规模化？
    • 伦理：我们到底该不该做这件事？是否存在伦理考量？它会给客户带来风险吗？
    • Go-to-Market（对新产品尤为关键）：我们能否有效推广它？我们拥有所需的渠道吗？我们能否说服客户尝试它？针对该渠道的信息传递是否恰当？时机是否合适？发布方式是否正确？
    • 战略与目标：我们的假设是什么？其他人能否复制我们的战略？我们是否考虑了政治、经济、法律、技术和环境因素？这些是我们需要解决的最佳问题吗？
    • 团队：团队协作效率如何？我们是否拥有合适的人才？我们是否具备合适的工具？整个团队能否长期留任？
  3. 针对每个假设，评估置信度并建议测试方法。
请逐步思考。将结果保存为Markdown格式。

Further Reading

延伸阅读