TAM (Top-Down) = Total Industry Revenue in Category
SAM (Top-Down) = TAM x Geographic Filter x Segment Filter x Product-Fit Filter
SOM (Top-Down) = SAM x Realistic Capture Rate (based on competitive dynamics)

TAM (Bottom-Up) = Total Potential Customers x Average Annual Revenue per Customer
SAM (Bottom-Up) = Reachable Customers x Average Annual Revenue per Customer
SOM (Bottom-Up) = Target Customers in [timeframe] x Expected Revenue per Customer

# Market Sizing Analysis: [Product/Service]

**Industry**: [Industry]
**Geography**: [Geography]
**Target Segment**: [Target Segment]
**Analysis Date**: [Date]
**Analyst**: Claude Market Sizing Agent

---

## Executive Summary

[3-5 sentence summary of key findings. Lead with the bottom line: TAM, SAM, SOM numbers. Highlight the most important insight.]

### Key Figures

| Metric | Conservative | Base Case | Aggressive |
|---|---|---|---|
| **TAM** | $X | $X | $X |
| **SAM** | $X | $X | $X |
| **SOM (Year 1)** | $X | $X | $X |
| **SOM (Year 3)** | $X | $X | $X |
| **SOM (Year 5)** | $X | $X | $X |

---

## Methodology

### Definitions

- **TAM (Total Addressable Market)**: The total revenue opportunity if 100% of the target market adopted the product/service. Represents the theoretical maximum.
- **SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market)**: The portion of TAM that the company can realistically target given its business model, geography, go-to-market strategy, and product capabilities.
- **SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market)**: The portion of SAM the company can realistically capture in a defined timeframe, accounting for competition, resources, and execution capability.

### Approach

This analysis uses both top-down and bottom-up methodologies, then triangulates to produce a best estimate.

[Describe the specific approach taken for this analysis]

---

## Top-Down Analysis

### Step 1: Total Industry Market

[Source data, citation, and the broadest market number]

### Step 2: Geographic Adjustment

[How the geography filter was applied, with rationale and source]

### Step 3: Segment Adjustment

[How the target segment filter was applied, with rationale and source]

### Step 4: Product-Fit Adjustment

[How the product-specific filter was applied, with rationale]

### Top-Down Results

| Metric | Value | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | $X | [show math] |
| SAM | $X | [show math] |
| SOM | $X | [show math] |

---

## Bottom-Up Analysis

### Customer Count Estimation

[How many potential customers exist, by segment, with sources]

### Revenue Per Customer Estimation

[ACV/ARPU analysis from pricing benchmarks and competitor data]

### Bottom-Up Results

| Metric | Value | Calculation |
|---|---|---|
| TAM | $X | [show math] |
| SAM | $X | [show math] |
| SOM | $X | [show math] |

---

## Triangulation and Best Estimate

[Compare top-down and bottom-up. Explain any divergence. Present the best estimate with rationale for weighting.]

### Convergence Analysis

```mermaid
graph LR
    A["Top-Down TAM: $X"] --> C["Best Estimate TAM: $X"]
    B["Bottom-Up TAM: $X"] --> C
    D["Top-Down SAM: $X"] --> F["Best Estimate SAM: $X"]
    E["Bottom-Up SAM: $X"] --> F
    G["Top-Down SOM: $X"] --> I["Best Estimate SOM: $X"]
    H["Bottom-Up SOM: $X"] --> I

graph LR
    subgraph "Sensitivity: Impact on SAM Estimate"
        A["Variable 1: -X% to +X%"] --- B["||||||||||||||||||||"]
        C["Variable 2: -X% to +X%"] --- D["||||||||||||||"]
        E["Variable 3: -X% to +X%"] --- F["||||||||||"]
        G["Variable 4: -X% to +X%"] --- H["|||||||"]
        I["Variable 5: -X% to +X%"] --- J["||||"]
    end

xychart-beta
    title "Market Size Projections ($ Millions)"
    x-axis ["Year 1", "Year 2", "Year 3", "Year 4", "Year 5"]
    y-axis "Market Size ($M)"
    bar [TAM values]
    line [SAM values]
    line [SOM values]

pie title Estimated Market Share Distribution
    "Competitor A" : X
    "Competitor B" : X
    "Competitor C" : X
    "Competitor D" : X
    "Other/Fragmented" : X
    "Unaddressed/White Space" : X

quadrantChart
    title Competitive Positioning
    x-axis "SMB Focus" --> "Enterprise Focus"
    y-axis "Low Price" --> "Premium Price"
    quadrant-1 "Premium Enterprise"
    quadrant-2 "Premium SMB"
    quadrant-3 "Value SMB"
    quadrant-4 "Value Enterprise"
    "Competitor A": [0.X, 0.X]
    "Competitor B": [0.X, 0.X]
    "Competitor C": [0.X, 0.X]
    "Our Position": [0.X, 0.X]

graph TD
    A["TAM: $X<br/>Total Addressable Market<br/>[Description]"] --> B["SAM: $X<br/>Serviceable Addressable Market<br/>[Description]"]
    B --> C["SOM: $X<br/>Serviceable Obtainable Market<br/>[Description]"]
    style A fill:#2563eb,stroke:#1d4ed8,color:#ffffff
    style B fill:#7c3aed,stroke:#6d28d9,color:#ffffff
    style C fill:#059669,stroke:#047857,color:#ffffff

## Quality Checklist

Before delivering the output, verify:

- [ ] All dollar figures include the year and currency (e.g., "$4.2B USD, 2025")
- [ ] Every data point has a cited source with URL and date
- [ ] Top-down and bottom-up approaches are both complete
- [ ] Triangulation explains any divergence between approaches
- [ ] Conservative, base, and aggressive scenarios are all populated
- [ ] Growth projections cover 5 years with explicit CAGR
- [ ] At least 5 competitors are profiled with revenue estimates
- [ ] All assumptions are logged with confidence levels
- [ ] Mermaid charts render correctly (test syntax)
- [ ] Sensitivity analysis identifies the top 3-5 swing variables
- [ ] The executive summary leads with the bottom-line numbers
- [ ] No emojis appear anywhere in the document
- [ ] All math is shown and reproducible
- [ ] Market definitions are explicit and defensible
- [ ] The document reads as investor-ready (clear, professional, thorough)

## Interaction Protocol

1. **Confirm inputs**: Before starting research, confirm the four inputs with the user. If any are ambiguous, ask clarifying questions.
2. **Research first**: Conduct all web searches and data gathering before any calculations. Log sources as you go.
3. **Calculate transparently**: Show all math. Never present a number without showing how you got there.
4. **Flag uncertainty**: When data is sparse or conflicting, say so explicitly. Never fabricate precision.
5. **Deliver and iterate**: Present the full market-sizing.md, then ask if the user wants to adjust any assumptions, explore alternative market definitions, or drill deeper into any section.

## Common Pitfalls to Avoid

- **Double-counting**: Ensure TAM segments do not overlap. If sizing by vertical and by company size, pick one dimension.
- **Conflating TAM and SAM**: TAM is the theoretical max. SAM must reflect real constraints (geography, segment, product fit). Never present TAM as if it were SAM.
- **Stale data**: Prefer data from the last 12-24 months. Flag anything older with a note about potential staleness.
- **Single-source reliance**: Triangulate market size from at least 2-3 independent sources when possible.
- **Aspirational SOM**: SOM should be grounded in realistic competitive dynamics, go-to-market capacity, and sales cycle length. A 20% SOM in year 1 for a startup entering a crowded market is not credible.
- **Ignoring market concentration**: A $10B TAM with 3 dominant players at 80% share is very different from a $10B TAM that is highly fragmented.
- **Currency and year mismatches**: Always normalize to a single currency and base year.
- **Circular reasoning**: Do not use your own TAM estimate as a source for your SAM estimate methodology. Each must have independent grounding.