systems-thinking
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ChineseSystems Thinking
系统思维
Scope
适用范围
Covers
- Seeing the “whole system” behind a problem (actors, incentives, feedback loops, culture/rules)
- Anticipating second- and third-order effects (including time delays)
- Finding leverage points (small changes with outsized impact)
- Converting recurring pain into a reusable system (process, automation, or operating mechanism)
When to use
- “This is a complex ecosystem; we’re missing the bigger picture.”
- “What are the second-order effects if we do X?”
- “We keep solving symptoms—what’s the system causing this?”
- “Map the players + incentives and how they interact.”
- “We need to redesign a process/org without unintended consequences.”
When NOT to use
- The problem is simple/linear and mostly execution (use a project plan/timeline).
- You need primary user research or data you don’t have (do discovery first).
- You need deep quantitative forecasting/simulation (this skill produces a qualitative map + risks, not a full model).
- The decision is low-impact and fully reversible (don’t over-invest).
涵盖内容
- 洞察问题背后的“整个系统”（参与者、激励机制、反馈回路、文化/规则）
- 预判二阶及三阶影响（包括时间延迟）
- 找到杠杆点（影响巨大的微小改变）
- 将反复出现的痛点转化为可复用的系统（流程、自动化或运营机制）
适用场景
- “这是一个复杂的生态系统；我们没有看到全貌。”
- “如果我们采取X行动，会有哪些二阶影响？”
- “我们一直在解决表面问题——导致问题的系统根源是什么？”
- “梳理参与者+激励机制及其互动方式。”
- “我们需要重新设计流程/组织，同时避免意外后果。”
不适用场景
- 问题简单/线性，主要涉及执行（使用项目计划/时间表即可）。
- 需要尚未获取的一手用户研究或数据（先开展探索性研究）。
- 需要深度定量预测/模拟（本方法生成定性地图+风险分析，而非完整模型）。
- 决策影响小且完全可逆（无需过度投入）。
Inputs
输入要求
Minimum required
- The focal decision or problem statement (1–2 sentences)
- Desired outcome + time horizon (default: 6–12 months)
- Known constraints/guardrails (trust, safety, compliance, budget, headcount)
- Known actors/stakeholders (teams, users, partners, regulators, vendors)
- What has been tried already (and what happened)
Missing-info strategy
- Ask up to 5 questions from references/INTAKE.md.
- If answers aren’t available, proceed with clearly labeled assumptions and provide 2–3 alternative system framings/boundaries.
最低必要输入
- 核心决策或问题陈述（1-2句话）
- 期望结果+时间范围（默认：6-12个月）
- 已知约束/准则（信任、安全、合规、预算、人员编制）
- 已知参与者/利益相关者（团队、用户、合作伙伴、监管机构、供应商）
- 已尝试的方案及结果
缺失信息处理策略
- 从references/INTAKE.md中提出最多5个问题。
- 如果无法获取答案，基于明确标注的假设继续推进，并提供2-3种备选系统框架/边界。
Outputs (deliverables)
输出成果（交付物）
Produce a Systems Thinking Pack in Markdown (in-chat; or as files if requested) in this order:
- Context + System boundary (goal, scope, non-scope, time horizon)
- Actors & incentives map (players, goals, constraints, power, conflicts)
- System map (key variables + causal links) + feedback loops (reinforcing/balancing) + time delays
- Second-/third-order effects ledger for the top 1–3 decisions
- Leverage points + intervention plan (actions, owners, sequencing, guardrails)
- System-build opportunities (what to automate/standardize to reduce recurring pain)
- Risks / Open questions / Next steps (required)
Templates: references/TEMPLATES.md
生成Markdown格式的系统思维包（可在对话中展示；若有需求也可作为文件输出），顺序如下：
- 背景 + 系统边界（目标、范围、非范围、时间范围）
- 参与者与激励地图（参与者、目标、约束、权力、冲突）
- 系统地图（关键变量+因果关联）+ 反馈回路（强化型/平衡型）+ 时间延迟
- 核心1-3项决策的二阶/三阶影响台账
- 杠杆点 + 干预计划（行动、负责人、实施顺序、准则）
- 系统构建机会（可自动化/标准化以减少反复痛点的内容）
- 风险 / 待解决问题 / 后续步骤（必填）
模板参考：references/TEMPLATES.md
Workflow (8 steps)
工作流程（8个步骤）
1) Intake + pick the focal decision/problem
1) 信息收集 + 确定核心决策/问题
- Inputs: User context; use references/INTAKE.md.
- Actions: Restate the focal decision/problem, desired outcome, and time horizon; list constraints/guardrails.
- Outputs: Draft Context + System boundary.
- Checks: The problem is not a solution in disguise; scope and non-scope are explicit.
- 输入：用户提供的背景信息；参考references/INTAKE.md。
- 行动：重述核心决策/问题、期望结果及时间范围；列出约束/准则。
- 输出：背景 + 系统边界草稿。
- 检查项：问题未被伪装成解决方案；范围与非范围明确。
2) Define the system boundary (what’s “in” vs “out”)
2) 定义系统边界（“包含”与“排除”的内容）
- Inputs: Problem statement + constraints.
- Actions: Choose a boundary that is useful (not everything). Name the primary outcome metric(s) and a few leading indicators.
- Outputs: Boundary statement + success measures.
- Checks: Boundary is tight enough to act on, but wide enough to include key externalities.
- 输入：问题陈述+约束条件。
- 行动：选择实用的边界（无需涵盖所有内容）。明确主要成果指标及若干领先指标。
- 输出：边界说明+成功衡量标准。
- 检查项：边界足够紧凑以便执行，但又足够宽泛，能涵盖关键外部因素。
3) Map actors + incentives (multi-agent reality)
3) 梳理参与者 + 激励机制（多主体现实）
- Inputs: Boundary + stakeholder list.
- Actions: Enumerate actors/players; capture incentives, constraints, power, and likely behaviors.
- Outputs: Actors & incentives map (table).
- Checks: Includes at least 1–2 “invisible” actors (e.g., policies, culture norms, platform constraints) if relevant.
- 输入：边界定义+利益相关者列表。
- 行动：列举所有参与者；记录其激励机制、约束、权力及可能的行为。
- 输出：参与者与激励地图（表格形式）。
- 检查项：若相关，需包含至少1-2个“隐形”参与者（如政策、文化规范、平台约束）。
4) Build a simple system map (variables + causal links)
4) 构建简易系统地图（变量+因果关联）
- Inputs: Actors map + known dynamics.
- Actions: List key variables; map causal links (“A increases B”, “C decreases D”); mark time delays.
- Outputs: System map (text/table) with 10–20 high-signal links.
- Checks: Links are directional and testable; avoids buzzwords (“alignment”, “quality”) without definition.
- 输入：参与者地图+已知动态关系。
- 行动：列出关键变量；绘制因果关联（“A增加B”、“C减少D”）；标注时间延迟。
- 输出：系统地图（文本/表格形式），包含10-20个高价值关联。
- 检查项：关联具有方向性且可验证；避免使用无明确定义的流行词汇（如“对齐”、“质量”）。
5) Identify feedback loops + time delays
5) 识别反馈回路 + 时间延迟
- Inputs: System map.
- Actions: Extract reinforcing and balancing loops; note where delays create overshoot/oscillation; flag common traps.
- Outputs: Feedback loops section (2–6 loops) + delays list.
- Checks: Each loop has a short “so what” describing the pattern it creates.
- 输入：系统地图。
- 行动：提取强化型和平衡型回路；标注延迟导致过度反应/波动的节点；标记常见陷阱。
- 输出：反馈回路章节（2-6个回路）+延迟列表。
- 检查项：每个回路都配有简短的“影响说明”，描述其形成的模式。
6) Run second-/third-order effects on 1–3 candidate moves
6) 分析1-3个候选行动的二阶/三阶影响
- Inputs: Candidate decisions/actions.
- Actions: For each move, enumerate first-, second-, and third-order effects; include who wins/loses and what constraints tighten over time.
- Outputs: Second-/third-order effects ledger.
- Checks: Includes at least one unintended consequence + one mitigating action per move.
- 输入：候选决策/行动。
- 行动：针对每个行动，列举一阶、二阶及三阶影响；包含受益方/受损方，以及随时间收紧的约束条件。
- 输出：二阶/三阶影响台账。
- 检查项：每个行动至少包含一个意外后果+一个缓解措施。
7) Choose leverage points + design interventions (including “build a system”)
7) 选择杠杆点 + 设计干预方案（包括“构建系统”）
- Inputs: Loops + effects ledger.
- Actions: Identify leverage points (policy, incentives, information flows, tooling, process); propose interventions; include at least one system-build/automation opportunity for recurring pain.
- Outputs: Leverage points + intervention plan + System-build opportunities.
- Checks: Each intervention has an owner, a measurable leading indicator, and a guardrail.
- 输入：回路+影响台账。
- 行动：识别杠杆点（政策、激励机制、信息流、工具、流程）；提出干预方案；至少包含一个针对反复痛点的系统构建/自动化机会。
- 输出：杠杆点 + 干预计划 + 系统构建机会。
- 检查项：每个干预方案都有负责人、可衡量的领先指标及准则。
8) Quality gate + finalize pack
8) 质量审核 + 最终确定包内容
- Inputs: All draft sections.
- Actions: Run references/CHECKLISTS.md and score with references/RUBRIC.md. Add Risks / Open questions / Next steps.
- Outputs: Final Systems Thinking Pack.
- Checks: A reader can act without a live meeting; trade-offs and uncertainties are explicit.
- 输入：所有草稿章节。
- 行动：使用references/CHECKLISTS.md检查，并通过references/RUBRIC.md评分。添加风险 / 待解决问题 / 后续步骤。
- 输出：最终版系统思维包。
- 检查项：读者无需线下会议即可采取行动；明确列出权衡取舍与不确定性。
Quality gate (required)
质量审核（必填）
- Use references/CHECKLISTS.md and references/RUBRIC.md.
- Always include: Risks, Open questions, Next steps.
- 使用references/CHECKLISTS.md和references/RUBRIC.md。
- 必须包含：风险、待解决问题、后续步骤。
Examples
示例
Example 1 (Org/process): “Our on-call load keeps rising and teams are burned out. Map the system and propose leverage points.”
Expected: an actors/incentives map (teams, incidents, incentives), feedback loops (firefighting loop), effects ledger for candidate changes, and an intervention plan with guardrails.
Expected: an actors/incentives map (teams, incidents, incentives), feedback loops (firefighting loop), effects ledger for candidate changes, and an intervention plan with guardrails.
Example 2 (Product ecosystem): “We’re changing API pricing; what are the second-order effects across partners and customer segments?”
Expected: system boundary + actors map (customers/partners/internal), loops and delays, effects ledger, and a sequencing/mitigation plan.
Expected: system boundary + actors map (customers/partners/internal), loops and delays, effects ledger, and a sequencing/mitigation plan.
Boundary example: “Write a status update about this week’s tasks.”
Response: this skill is for complex systems/decisions. Suggest a project update format instead; only use this skill if there’s a systemic pattern to diagnose.
Response: this skill is for complex systems/decisions. Suggest a project update format instead; only use this skill if there’s a systemic pattern to diagnose.
示例1（组织/流程）：“我们的值班负荷持续上升，团队已不堪重负。梳理系统并提出杠杆点。”
预期输出：参与者/激励地图（团队、事件、激励机制）、反馈回路（救火式循环）、候选变更的影响台账，以及带准则的干预计划。
示例2（产品生态）：“我们要调整API定价；这对合作伙伴和客户细分群体有哪些二阶影响？”
预期输出：系统边界+参与者地图（客户/合作伙伴/内部团队）、回路与延迟、影响台账，以及实施顺序/缓解计划。
边界示例：“撰写本周任务的状态更新。”
回应：本方法适用于复杂系统/决策。建议使用项目更新格式；仅当存在需诊断的系统性模式时，才使用本方法。