price-target-consensus

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Price Target Consensus

共识目标价查询

Retrieve consensus price target metrics including average, median, high, and low targets using the Octagon MCP server.

使用Octagon MCP服务器获取共识目标价指标，包括平均、中位数、最高和最低目标价。

Prerequisites

前提条件

Ensure Octagon MCP is configured in your AI agent (Cursor, Claude Desktop, Windsurf, etc.). See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.

确保你的AI Agent（Cursor、Claude Desktop、Windsurf等）中已配置Octagon MCP。安装说明请参考references/mcp-setup.md。

Workflow

操作流程

1. Identify the Stock

1. 确定股票

Determine the ticker symbol for the company you want to analyze (e.g., AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL).

确定你要分析的公司的股票代码（例如AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）。

2. Execute Query via Octagon MCP

2. 通过Octagon MCP执行查询

Use the

octagon-agent

tool with a natural language prompt:

Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol <TICKER>.

MCP Call Format:

json

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol AAPL."
  }
}

使用

octagon-agent

工具，配合自然语言提示词：

Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol <TICKER>.

MCP调用格式：

json

{
  "server": "octagon-mcp",
  "toolName": "octagon-agent",
  "arguments": {
    "prompt": "Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol AAPL."
  }
}

3. Expected Output

3. 预期输出

The agent returns consensus price target data:

Metric	Value
Consensus Target	$303.11
Median Target	$315.00
Target High	$350.00
Target Low	$220.00

Data Sources: octagon-stock-data-agent

Agent会返回共识目标价数据：

指标	数值
共识目标价	$303.11
中位数目标价	$315.00
最高目标价	$350.00
最低目标价	$220.00

数据来源：octagon-stock-data-agent

4. Interpret Results

4. 解读结果

See references/interpreting-results.md for guidance on:

Understanding consensus vs. median
Analyzing the target range
Calculating upside/downside
Evaluating analyst agreement

关于以下内容的指导，请参考references/interpreting-results.md：

理解共识价与中位数的区别
分析目标价区间
计算涨跌幅度
评估分析师共识度

Example Queries

示例查询

Basic Query:

Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol AAPL.

With Price Context:

What is the consensus price target for TSLA and how does it compare to current price?

Range Focus:

What are the highest and lowest analyst price targets for NVDA?

Comparison:

Compare consensus price targets for AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL.

Upside Analysis:

What upside does the consensus target imply for AMZN?

基础查询：

Retrieve consensus price targets for the stock symbol AAPL.

带价格上下文的查询：

What is the consensus price target for TSLA and how does it compare to current price?

聚焦区间的查询：

What are the highest and lowest analyst price targets for NVDA?

对比查询：

Compare consensus price targets for AAPL, MSFT, and GOOGL.

上涨潜力分析：

What upside does the consensus target imply for AMZN?

Understanding the Metrics

指标说明

Consensus Target

共识目标价

Aspect	Description
Definition	Average of all analyst targets
Calculation	Sum of targets / Number of analysts
Use	General market expectation
Limitation	Skewed by outliers

维度	说明
定义	所有分析师目标价的平均值
计算方式	目标价总和 / 分析师数量
用途	代表市场普遍预期
局限性	会被极端值影响

Median Target

中位数目标价

Aspect	Description
Definition	Middle value of all targets
Calculation	50th percentile
Use	Central tendency, outlier-resistant
Advantage	Less affected by extremes

维度	说明
定义	所有目标价的中间值
计算方式	第50百分位数
用途	代表集中趋势，不受极端值干扰
优势	受极端值影响较小

Target High

最高目标价

Aspect	Description
Definition	Most bullish analyst target
Represents	Best-case scenario
Use	Maximum upside potential
Caution	May be overly optimistic

维度	说明
定义	最乐观的分析师给出的目标价
代表	最佳情景
用途	评估最大上涨潜力
注意事项	可能过于乐观

Target Low

最低目标价

Aspect	Description
Definition	Most bearish analyst target
Represents	Worst-case scenario
Use	Downside risk assessment
Caution	May be overly pessimistic

维度	说明
定义	最悲观的分析师给出的目标价
代表	最差情景
用途	评估下跌风险
注意事项	可能过于悲观

Calculating Potential

潜力计算

Upside/Downside Formulas

涨跌幅度公式

Consensus Upside = (Consensus Target - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Maximum Upside = (Target High - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Downside Risk = (Target Low - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%

Consensus Upside = (Consensus Target - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Maximum Upside = (Target High - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%
Downside Risk = (Target Low - Current Price) / Current Price × 100%

Example Calculations

计算示例

If AAPL trades at $270.01:

Metric	Target	Potential
Consensus	$303.11	+12.3% upside
Median	$315.00	+16.7% upside
High	$350.00	+29.6% upside
Low	$220.00	-18.5% downside

若AAPL当前股价为$270.01：

指标	目标价	涨跌潜力
共识价	$303.11	+12.3% 上涨
中位数	$315.00	+16.7% 上涨
最高价	$350.00	+29.6% 上涨
最低价	$220.00	-18.5% 下跌

Range Analysis

区间分析

Spread Calculation

区间差值计算

Range = Target High - Target Low
Spread % = Range / Consensus Target × 100%

Range = Target High - Target Low
Spread % = Range / Consensus Target × 100%

Interpreting Spread

区间差值解读

Spread %	Interpretation
<20%	Strong consensus
20-40%	Normal range
40-60%	Moderate disagreement
>60%	High uncertainty

差值占比	解读
<20%	分析师共识度高
20-40%	正常区间
40-60%	分析师存在一定分歧
>60%	不确定性高

Example Range Analysis

区间分析示例

From AAPL data:

High: $350.00
Low: $220.00
Range: $130.00
Consensus: $303.11
Spread: 42.9%

Interpretation: Moderate disagreement among analysts, with significant difference between bulls and bears.

以AAPL数据为例：

最高价：$350.00
最低价：$220.00
区间差值：$130.00
共识价：$303.11
差值占比：42.9%

解读：分析师存在一定分歧，乐观派和悲观派的观点差异显著。

Consensus vs. Median

共识价 vs 中位数

When to Use Each

适用场景

Scenario	Prefer
Normal distribution	Consensus (average)
Outliers present	Median
Skewed targets	Median
General expectation	Consensus

场景	优先选择
数据呈正态分布	共识价（平均值）
存在极端值	中位数
目标价分布倾斜	中位数
了解普遍预期	共识价

Identifying Skew

识别分布倾斜

Condition	Indicates
Consensus > Median	Right skew (bullish outliers)
Consensus < Median	Left skew (bearish outliers)
Consensus ≈ Median	Symmetric distribution

情况	说明
共识价 > 中位数	右偏（存在乐观极端值）
共识价 < 中位数	左偏（存在悲观极端值）
共识价 ≈ 中位数	分布对称

Example

示例

From AAPL data:

Consensus: $303.11
Median: $315.00
Consensus < Median → Left skew (some bearish outliers pulling average down)

以AAPL数据为例：

共识价：$303.11
中位数：$315.00
共识价 < 中位数 → 左偏（部分悲观极端值拉低了平均值）

Bull vs. Bear Cases

乐观 vs 悲观情景

Understanding Extremes

极端值解读

Target	Represents
High	Bull case assumptions
Low	Bear case assumptions
Gap	Range of outcomes

目标价	代表含义
最高价	乐观情景假设
最低价	悲观情景假设
差值	可能的结果区间

Scenario Analysis

情景分析

Scenario	Assumptions
Bull Case	Strong growth, expanding margins, favorable macro
Base Case	Consensus expectations
Bear Case	Challenges, competition, risks materialize

情景	假设条件
乐观情景	增长强劲、利润率提升、宏观环境利好
基准情景	符合共识预期
悲观情景	面临挑战、竞争加剧、风险兑现

Practical Applications

实际应用

Investment Decision

投资决策

Finding	Consideration
Price < Low Target	Potential deep value or concerns
Price near Consensus	Fairly valued
Price > High Target	Potentially overvalued

发现	考量因素
当前价 < 最低目标价	可能存在深度价值或潜在风险
当前价接近共识价	估值合理
当前价 > 最高目标价	可能被高估

Risk Assessment

风险评估

Metric	Use For
Downside to Low	Worst-case loss
Upside to High	Best-case gain
Risk/Reward	Low upside / High downside

指标	用途
较最低价的下跌空间	评估最差情况下的损失
较最高价的上涨空间	评估最佳情况下的收益
风险收益比	上涨空间小/下跌空间大

Position Sizing

仓位管理

Consensus View	Position Approach
Strong upside, tight range	Larger position
Moderate upside, wide range	Standard position
Limited upside, wide range	Smaller position

共识观点	仓位策略
上涨空间大、区间差值小	加大仓位
上涨空间适中、区间差值正常	标准仓位
上涨空间有限、区间差值大	降低仓位

Common Use Cases

常见使用场景

Quick Valuation Check

快速估值检查

Is AAPL fairly valued based on analyst targets?

Is AAPL fairly valued based on analyst targets?

Upside Screening

上涨潜力筛选

Which tech stocks have the highest consensus upside?

Which tech stocks have the highest consensus upside?

Risk Assessment

风险评估

What's the downside risk to the lowest analyst target for TSLA?

What's the downside risk to the lowest analyst target for TSLA?

Sentiment Check

情绪检查

How wide is the range between bull and bear cases for NVDA?

How wide is the range between bull and bear cases for NVDA?

Analysis Tips

分析技巧

Compare to current price: Calculate actual upside/downside.
Use median when skewed: More reliable central tendency.
Analyze the range: Wide = uncertainty, tight = agreement.
Consider timing: Targets are typically 12-month forward.
Track changes: Rising consensus = improving sentiment.
Combine with fundamentals: Targets are opinions, verify with data.

对比当前股价：计算实际的涨跌幅度。
数据倾斜时使用中位数：中位数是更可靠的集中趋势指标。
分析区间差值：差值大代表不确定性高，差值小代表共识度高。
考虑时间维度：目标价通常是12个月的远期预期。
追踪变化趋势：共识价上升代表市场情绪改善。
结合基本面分析：目标价是主观观点，需结合客观数据验证。

Integration with Other Skills

与其他技能的集成

Skill	Combined Use
stock-quote	Current price for potential calculation
price-target-summary	Historical target trends
analyst-estimates	Earnings behind the targets
financial-metrics-analysis	Fundamental validation

技能	组合用途
stock-quote	获取当前股价用于潜力计算
price-target-summary	查看目标价历史趋势
analyst-estimates	了解目标价背后的盈利预期
financial-metrics-analysis	基本面验证