earnings-revenue-guidance
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ChineseEarnings Revenue Guidance
财报收入指引
Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from earnings call transcripts with detailed breakdowns by segment, currency impact, and M&A contributions.
从财报电话会议记录中提取特定的收入指引与增长预测，包含按细分板块、汇率影响及M&A贡献的详细拆分。
Prerequisites
前提条件
Ensure Octagon MCP is configured. See references/mcp-setup.md for installation instructions.
确保已配置Octagon MCP。安装说明请参阅references/mcp-setup.md。
Workflow
工作流程
Step 1: Extract Revenue Guidance
步骤1：提取收入指引
Use the Octagon MCP to extract revenue guidance:
Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from <TICKER>'s latest earnings call transcript.使用Octagon MCP提取收入指引：
Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from <TICKER>'s latest earnings call transcript.Step 2: Targeted Revenue Analysis
步骤2：针对性收入分析
Focus on specific aspects of revenue guidance:
undefined聚焦收入指引的特定维度：
undefinedTotal Revenue
总收入
Extract total revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s latest earnings call.
Extract total revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s latest earnings call.
Segment Revenue
细分板块收入
Extract segment-level revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings transcript.
Extract segment-level revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings transcript.
Organic vs. M&A
有机增长vs并购增长
Separate organic revenue guidance from M&A contribution in <TICKER>'s earnings call.
Separate organic revenue guidance from M&A contribution in <TICKER>'s earnings call.
Currency Impact
汇率影响
What is the FX impact on <TICKER>'s revenue guidance?
What is the FX impact on <TICKER>'s revenue guidance?
Subscription Revenue
订阅收入
Extract recurring revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings call.
Extract recurring revenue guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings call.
Growth Rates
增长率
Extract revenue growth rate guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings transcript.
undefinedExtract revenue growth rate guidance from <TICKER>'s earnings transcript.
undefinedExpected Output
预期输出
The skill returns structured revenue guidance including:
| Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Revenue Range | Dollar guidance (low-high) |
| Growth Rate | Nominal YoY growth percentage |
| Constant Currency | FX-adjusted growth rate |
| Segment Breakdown | Revenue by business unit |
| M&A Contribution | Acquisition impact on growth |
| Source Citations | Transcript page references |
本Skill返回结构化的收入指引，包括：
| 组成部分 | 说明 |
|---|---|
| 收入区间 | 美元计价指引（下限-上限） |
| 增长率 | 名义同比增长百分比 |
| 恒定货币（Constant Currency） | 经汇率调整后的增长率 |
| 细分板块拆分 | 各业务单元收入 |
| M&A贡献 | 并购对增长的影响 |
| 来源引用 | 会议记录页码参考 |
Example Query
示例查询
Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from CRM's latest earnings call transcript.Extract specific revenue guidance and growth projections from CRM's latest earnings call transcript.Example Response
示例响应
Salesforce (CRM) provided the following revenue guidance and growth projections in its Q3 2026 earnings call transcript:
Revenue Guidance
| Metric | Range | Growth Rate (Nominal) | Growth Rate (Constant Currency) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total Revenue | $41.15B - $41.25B | 9.00% | 8.00% |
| Total Revenue (with Informatica) | $41.545B - $41.55B | 9.00% - 10.00% | 9.00% |
Subscription & Support Revenue
- Anticipated growth: Slightly under 10.00% year-over-year in constant currency
- Informatica contribution: +0.80 percentage points to growth
Source: CRM_Q32026, Page: 6
Salesforce (CRM)在其2026财年第三季度财报电话会议记录中提供了以下收入指引与增长预测：
收入指引
| 指标 | 区间 | 增长率（名义） | 增长率（恒定货币） |
|---|---|---|---|
| 总收入 | $41.15B - $41.25B | 9.00% | 8.00% |
| 总收入（含Informatica） | $41.545B - $41.55B | 9.00% - 10.00% | 9.00% |
订阅与支持收入
- 预期增长率：恒定货币下同比略低于10.00%
- Informatica贡献：对增长率的拉动为+0.80个百分点
来源：CRM_Q32026，页码：6
Revenue Guidance Components
收入指引组成部分
Total Revenue
总收入
| Component | Description |
|---|---|
| Range Low | Conservative estimate |
| Range High | Optimistic estimate |
| Midpoint | Implied expectation |
| Growth Rate | YoY percentage change |
| 组成部分 | 说明 |
|---|---|
| 区间下限 | 保守估计值 |
| 区间上限 | 乐观估计值 |
| 中间值 | 隐含预期值 |
| 增长率 | 同比变化百分比 |
Segment Revenue
细分板块收入
| Segment Type | Examples |
|---|---|
| Product Lines | Cloud, Hardware, Services |
| Business Units | Enterprise, SMB, Consumer |
| Revenue Type | Subscription, Perpetual, Services |
| Geography | Americas, EMEA, APAC |
| 板块类型 | 示例 |
|---|---|
| 产品线 | Cloud、硬件、服务 |
| 业务单元 | 企业端、SMB、消费者端 |
| 收入类型 | 订阅、永久授权、服务 |
| 地域 | 美洲、EMEA、APAC |
Growth Rate Types
增长率类型
| Type | Description |
|---|---|
| Reported (Nominal) | As-reported in local currency |
| Constant Currency | FX-adjusted growth |
| Organic | Excluding M&A |
| Pro Forma | As if M&A included in prior period |
| 类型 | 说明 |
|---|---|
| 报告值（名义） | 按当地货币报告的数值 |
| 恒定货币 | 经汇率调整后的增长 |
| 有机增长 | 剔除M&A影响 |
| 备考值 | 假设M&A在上期已纳入统计的数值 |
Currency Impact Analysis
汇率影响分析
Understanding FX Effects
理解FX影响
| FX Scenario | Revenue Impact | Growth Rate |
|---|---|---|
| USD Strong | Lower reported | Reported < CC |
| USD Weak | Higher reported | Reported > CC |
| Neutral | No impact | Reported = CC |
| FX场景 | 收入影响 | 增长率 |
|---|---|---|
| 美元走强 | 报告收入降低 | 报告值 < 恒定货币值 |
| 美元走弱 | 报告收入升高 | 报告值 > 恒定货币值 |
| 中性 | 无影响 | 报告值 = 恒定货币值 |
Calculating Currency Impact
计算汇率影响
Example:
- Reported Growth: 9.00%
- Constant Currency Growth: 8.00%
- FX Tailwind: 9.00% - 8.00% = +1.00pp
Interpretation: Currency added 1 percentage point to reported growth示例：
- 报告增长率：9.00%
- 恒定货币增长率：8.00%
- FX利好：9.00% - 8.00% = +1.00pp
解读：汇率为报告增长率贡献了1个百分点M&A Contribution Analysis
M&A贡献分析
Separating Organic from Inorganic
区分有机与非有机增长
| Component | Calculation |
|---|---|
| Total Growth | Reported YoY change |
| M&A Contribution | Acquired revenue / prior base |
| Organic Growth | Total Growth - M&A Contribution |
| 组成部分 | 计算方式 |
|---|---|
| 总增长率 | 报告的同比变化 |
| M&A贡献 | 并购收入 / 上期基数 |
| 有机增长率 | 总增长率 - M&A贡献 |
Example Breakdown
示例拆分
Total Growth: 10.00%
M&A Contribution: +0.80pp (Informatica)
Organic Growth: 10.00% - 0.80% = 9.20%
Key Insight: Underlying business growing at 9.2%总增长率：10.00%
M&A贡献：+0.80pp（来自Informatica）
有机增长率：10.00% - 0.80% = 9.20%
核心洞察：基础业务增长率为9.2%Segment Guidance Framework
细分板块指引框架
Segment Revenue Table
细分板块收入表
| Segment | Guidance | Growth | Mix |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud | $25B | +15% | 60% |
| Services | $10B | +5% | 25% |
| Other | $6B | +2% | 15% |
| Total | $41B | +10% | 100% |
| 板块 | 指引 | 增长率 | 占比 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cloud | $25B | +15% | 60% |
| 服务 | $10B | +5% | 25% |
| 其他 | $6B | +2% | 15% |
| 总计 | $41B | +10% | 100% |
Mix Shift Analysis
占比变化分析
| Trend | Implication |
|---|---|
| High-growth segment gaining share | Positive for overall growth |
| High-margin segment gaining share | Positive for profitability |
| Declining segment shrinking | Healthy portfolio management |
| All segments growing | Broad-based strength |
| 趋势 | 含义 |
|---|---|
| 高增长板块占比提升 | 对整体增长有利 |
| 高利润率板块占比提升 | 对盈利能力有利 |
| 衰退板块占比收缩 | 健康的组合管理 |
| 所有板块均增长 | 全面的增长动力 |
Guidance Range Analysis
指引区间分析
Range Width Interpretation
区间宽度解读
| Range Width | Confidence Level |
|---|---|
| < 1% of midpoint | Very high confidence |
| 1-2% of midpoint | High confidence |
| 2-3% of midpoint | Moderate confidence |
| > 3% of midpoint | Low confidence, high variability |
| 区间宽度 | 置信水平 |
|---|---|
| < 中间值的1% | 极高置信度 |
| 中间值的1-2% | 高置信度 |
| 中间值的2-3% | 中等置信度 |
| > 中间值的3% | 低置信度，高波动性 |
Midpoint Calculation
中间值计算
Example:
Range: $41.15B - $41.25B
Midpoint: ($41.15B + $41.25B) / 2 = $41.20B
Range Width: $41.25B - $41.15B = $0.10B
% of Midpoint: $0.10B / $41.20B = 0.24%
Interpretation: Very tight range, high confidence示例：
区间：$41.15B - $41.25B
中间值：($41.15B + $41.25B) / 2 = $41.20B
区间宽度：$41.25B - $41.15B = $0.10B
占中间值比例：$0.10B / $41.20B = 0.24%
解读：区间非常狭窄，置信度极高Tracking Revenue Guidance
跟踪收入指引
Quarter-over-Quarter Changes
季度环比变化
| Period | Guidance | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 FY26 | $40.5B | Initial | Baseline |
| Q2 FY26 | $40.8B | +$0.3B | Raised |
| Q3 FY26 | $41.2B | +$0.4B | Raised |
| Full Year | $165B | Annual |
| 期间 | 指引 | 变化 | 信号 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026财年Q1 | $40.5B | 初始值 | 基准线 |
| 2026财年Q2 | $40.8B | +$0.3B | 上调 |
| 2026财年Q3 | $41.2B | +$0.4B | 上调 |
| 全年 | $165B | 年度值 |
Guidance Revision Analysis
指引调整分析
| Revision | Interpretation |
|---|---|
| Raised | Positive momentum |
| Maintained | On track |
| Narrowed | Increased visibility |
| Lowered | Challenges |
| Widened | Decreased visibility |
| 调整类型 | 解读 |
|---|---|
| 上调 | 正面增长动能 |
| 维持 | 符合预期 |
| 收窄 | 可见性提升 |
| 下调 | 面临挑战 |
| 扩大 | 可见性降低 |
Use Cases
使用场景
- Model Updates: Feed revenue guidance into financial models
- Consensus Comparison: Compare to Street estimates
- Organic Growth Tracking: Separate core growth from M&A
- FX Impact Analysis: Understand currency effects
- Segment Trends: Track business unit performance
- Beat/Miss Prediction: Anticipate earnings outcomes
- 模型更新：将收入指引输入财务模型
- 共识对比：与华尔街预期对比
- 有机增长跟踪：区分核心增长与M&A影响
- FX影响分析：理解汇率的作用
- 板块趋势：跟踪业务单元表现
- 盈利达标预测：预判盈利是否达标
Combining with Other Skills
与其他Skill结合
| Skill | Combined Analysis |
|---|---|
| analyst-estimates | Guidance vs. consensus |
| income-statement | Historical revenue trends |
| earnings-financial-guidance | Full guidance context |
| revenue-product-segmentation | Segment validation |
| stock-price-change | Guidance impact on price |
| Skill | 组合分析 |
|---|---|
| analyst-estimates | 指引vs市场共识 |
| income-statement | 历史收入趋势 |
| earnings-financial-guidance | 完整指引背景 |
| revenue-product-segmentation | 板块验证 |
| stock-price-change | 指引对股价的影响 |
Analysis Tips
分析技巧
-
Track Organic Growth: Strip out M&A and FX for true trends
-
Compare to Consensus: Is guidance above or below Street?
-
Watch Range Width: Narrow = confident, wide = uncertain
-
Note Revisions: Raising or lowering tells you direction
-
Segment Focus: Which segments driving growth?
-
Historical Accuracy: Does management typically beat guidance?
-
跟踪有机增长：剔除M&A和FX影响，把握真实趋势
-
与共识对比：指引高于还是低于市场预期？
-
关注区间宽度：收窄=信心充足，扩大=不确定性高
-
注意调整方向：上调或下调传递了什么信号？
-
聚焦板块：哪些板块是增长动力？
-
历史准确性：管理层通常是否能达成指引？
Interpreting Results
结果解读
See references/interpreting-results.md for detailed guidance on analyzing revenue guidance.
有关收入指引分析的详细指导，请参阅references/interpreting-results.md。