nansen-pm-insider-scan

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PM Suspicious Wallet Scanner

PM可疑钱包扫描工具

Answers: "Are there wallets with suspicious trading patterns in this Polymarket market?"

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作用： 回答“该Polymarket市场中是否存在具有可疑交易模式的钱包？”

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1. Find the resolved market

1. 查找已结算的市场

nansen research prediction-market market-screener --query "<market name>" --status closed --limit 5

nansen research prediction-market market-screener --query "<市场名称>" --status closed --limit 5

→ market_id, question, volume, last_trade_price

→ 返回 market_id、问题、交易量、最新交易价格

2. Get top winners (positive PnL) — paginate if needed, keep per_page <= 10

2. 获取盈利最高的钱包（正PnL）—— 若需要可分页，per_page需<=10

MID=<market_id> nansen research prediction-market pnl-by-market --market-id $MID --limit 10

→ address (proxy), owner_address (wallet), side_held, net_buy_cost_usd, total_pnl_usd

→ 返回 address（代理地址）、owner_address（钱包地址）、side_held、net_buy_cost_usd、total_pnl_usd

3. For each top winner, run these three calls (use proxy address for PM, owner for profiler):

3. 对每个盈利最高的钱包，执行以下三次调用（PM相关用代理地址，profiler相关用所有者地址）：

PROXY=<address_from_pnl> nansen research prediction-market trades-by-address --address $PROXY --limit 100

→ market_id, market_question, side, price, size, usdc_value, taker_action, timestamp

→ 返回 market_id、market_question、side、price、size、usdc_value、taker_action、timestamp

OWNER=<owner_address_from_pnl> nansen research profiler historical-balances --address $OWNER --chain polygon --days 365 --sort block_timestamp:asc --limit 100

→ block_timestamp, value_usd, token_symbol — first non-zero value_usd = wallet funding date

→ 返回 block_timestamp、value_usd、token_symbol —— 第一个非零value_usd对应的时间即为钱包注资日期

nansen research profiler labels --address $OWNER --chain polygon

→ label, category

→ 返回 label、category


For each winner, compute ROI = total_pnl_usd / net_buy_cost_usd * 100 (skip ROI flags if net_buy_cost_usd <= 0), then score (0–13). Within each tier group, apply only the highest matching flag:

| Flag | Pts | Trigger |
|---|---|---|
| NEW_WALLET | 3 | First funded within 7 days of now |
| YOUNG_WALLET | 1 | First funded 8–28 days ago (skip if NEW_WALLET fires) |
| SINGLE_MARKET | 3 | trades-by-address shows only 1 distinct market_id |
| FEW_MARKETS | 1 | 2–3 distinct market_ids (skip if SINGLE_MARKET fires) |
| EXTREME_ROI | 3 | ROI >= 500% |
| HIGH_ROI | 2 | ROI 200–499% (skip if EXTREME_ROI fires) |
| LATE_ENTRY | 2 | Any trade on this market at price >= 0.80 |
| LARGE_POSITION | 2 | net_buy_cost_usd >= $10k |
| KNOWN_ENTITY | -2 | Has Nansen labels |

Flagged at score >= 3. High risk at >= 7. High-confidence suspicious pattern: NEW_WALLET + SINGLE_MARKET + EXTREME_ROI (score 9+).

If owner_address is invalid (e.g. "0x"), use the proxy address for profiler calls too. If historical-balances returns no records with value_usd > 0, the wallet may predate the 365-day window — treat wallet age as unknown and skip NEW_WALLET / YOUNG_WALLET flags. Pause ~1.5s between wallets to avoid rate limits. Skip wallets that error and continue scanning.


对每个盈利钱包，计算ROI = total_pnl_usd / net_buy_cost_usd * 100（若net_buy_cost_usd <=0则跳过ROI相关标记），然后计算得分（0–13）。在每个层级组中，仅应用匹配度最高的标记：

| 标记 | 分值 | 触发条件 |
|---|---|---|
| NEW_WALLET | 3 | 首次注资时间在当前时间7天内 |
| YOUNG_WALLET | 1 | 首次注资时间在8–28天前（若NEW_WALLET触发则跳过） |
| SINGLE_MARKET | 3 | trades-by-address结果显示仅1个唯一market_id |
| FEW_MARKETS | 1 | 2–3个唯一market_id（若SINGLE_MARKET触发则跳过） |
| EXTREME_ROI | 3 | ROI >= 500% |
| HIGH_ROI | 2 | ROI 200–499%（若EXTREME_ROI触发则跳过） |
| LATE_ENTRY | 2 | 该市场中存在价格>=0.80的交易 |
| LARGE_POSITION | 2 | net_buy_cost_usd >= 10000美元 |
| KNOWN_ENTITY | -2 | 拥有Nansen标签 |

得分>=3时标记为可疑，>=7时为高风险。高置信度可疑模式：NEW_WALLET + SINGLE_MARKET + EXTREME_ROI（得分9+）。

若owner_address无效（例如“0x”），则profiler调用也使用代理地址。若historical-balances未返回value_usd>0的记录，说明钱包创建时间早于365天窗口——此时钱包年龄未知，跳过NEW_WALLET/YOUNG_WALLET标记。钱包之间需暂停约1.5秒以避免触发速率限制。跳过调用出错的钱包，继续扫描。