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polymarket-analyzer

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Polymarket Analyzer Skill

Polymarket 分析 Skill

Detect trading edges and opportunities across Polymarket prediction markets using real-time data from the Gamma and CLOB APIs. Zero authentication required -- all analysis is read-only.
利用来自Gamma和CLOB APIs的实时数据，在Polymarket预测市场中检测交易优势和机会。无需身份验证——所有分析均为只读操作。

Available Scripts

可用脚本

1. Find Arbitrage Edges (
scripts/find_edges.py
)

1. 寻找套利机会（
scripts/find_edges.py
）

Scans all active markets for pricing inefficiencies:
  • Underpriced: YES + NO < $1.00 (guaranteed profit if you buy both sides)
  • Overpriced: YES + NO > $1.02 (sell opportunity)
  • Calculates profit after fees for each opportunity
  • Outputs market name, prices, sum, potential profit, and fee impact
bash
python scripts/find_edges.py
python scripts/find_edges.py --min-edge 0.02 --limit 500
扫描所有活跃市场，寻找定价无效情况：
  • 定价偏低：YES + NO < 1.00美元（同时买入双方可获得保证利润）
  • 定价偏高：YES + NO > 1.02美元（卖出机会）
  • 计算每个机会扣除手续费后的利润
  • 输出市场名称、价格、总和、潜在利润及手续费影响
bash
python scripts/find_edges.py
python scripts/find_edges.py --min-edge 0.02 --limit 500

2. Analyze Order Book (
scripts/analyze_orderbook.py
)

2. 分析订单簿（
scripts/analyze_orderbook.py
）

Deep analysis of a single market's order book:
  • Spread, mid-price, bid/ask depth (top N levels)
  • Bid-ask imbalance ratio (signals directional pressure)
  • Thin vs thick book classification
  • Liquidity concentration analysis
bash
python scripts/analyze_orderbook.py --token-id <TOKEN_ID>
python scripts/analyze_orderbook.py --token-id <TOKEN_ID> --depth 10
对单个市场的订单簿进行深度分析：
  • 买卖价差、中间价、买卖盘深度（前N档）
  • 买卖盘失衡比率（信号方向压力）
  • 订单簿厚薄分类
  • 流动性集中度分析
bash
python scripts/analyze_orderbook.py --token-id <TOKEN_ID>
python scripts/analyze_orderbook.py --token-id <TOKEN_ID> --depth 10

3. Momentum Scanner (
scripts/momentum_scanner.py
)

3. 动量扫描器（
scripts/momentum_scanner.py
）

Detect markets with unusual activity:
  • Volume surges: 24h volume significantly exceeds 7-day average
  • Price momentum: recent price moves in one direction
  • Liquidity changes: markets gaining or losing depth
  • Ranked output by signal strength
bash
python scripts/momentum_scanner.py
python scripts/momentum_scanner.py --min-volume 10000 --limit 300
检测存在异常活动的市场：
  • 成交量激增：24小时成交量显著超过7天平均水平
  • 价格动量：近期价格单向变动
  • 流动性变化：市场流动性增加或减少
  • 按信号强度排序输出结果
bash
python scripts/momentum_scanner.py
python scripts/momentum_scanner.py --min-volume 10000 --limit 300

4. Correlation Tracker (
scripts/correlation_tracker.py
)

4. 相关性追踪器（
scripts/correlation_tracker.py
）

Detect hidden correlated exposure in your portfolio:
  • Groups positions by topic (crypto, politics, sports, geopolitics, etc.)
  • Detects shared qualifiers ("insider trading", "FIFA World Cup", etc.)
  • Warns when correlated clusters exceed concentration limits
  • Outputs diversification score (0-100)
bash
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py --json
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py --threshold 0.10
检测投资组合中隐藏的相关性风险：
  • 按主题（加密货币、政治、体育、地缘政治等）对持仓进行分组
  • 检测共同限定词（如“内幕交易”、“FIFA世界杯”等）
  • 当相关集群超过集中度限制时发出警告
  • 输出多元化评分（0-100）
bash
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py --json
python scripts/correlation_tracker.py --threshold 0.10

Workflow

工作流程

  1. Run 
    find_edges.py
    to scan for arbitrage across all active markets
  2. For interesting markets, run 
    analyze_orderbook.py
    to check if the edge is executable
  3. Run 
    momentum_scanner.py
    to find markets with directional momentum
  4. Combine findings to identify the best opportunities
  1. 运行
    find_edges.py
    扫描所有活跃市场的套利机会
  2. 对于感兴趣的市场，运行
    analyze_orderbook.py
    验证机会是否可执行
  3. 运行
    momentum_scanner.py
    寻找具有方向性动量的市场
  4. 结合发现结果，识别最佳机会

Fee Awareness

手续费说明

Most Polymarket markets are fee-free. Crypto 5-min/15-min markets have dynamic taker fees: 
fee = baseRate * min(price, 1 - price) * size
. See 
references/fee-model.md
for the full fee calculator and breakeven analysis.
大多数Polymarket市场免手续费。加密货币5分钟/15分钟市场采用动态taker手续费：
手续费 = 基础费率 * min(价格, 1 - 价格) * 交易量
。完整的手续费计算器和盈亏平衡分析请参阅
references/fee-model.md
。

Strategy Reference

策略参考

See 
references/viable-strategies.md
for the four strategies that still work in 2026 with win rates, expected returns, and risk profiles.
请参阅
references/viable-strategies.md
，了解2026年仍有效的四种策略，包括胜率、预期收益和风险概况。

Important Disclaimers

重要免责声明

  • This skill performs read-only analysis only -- no trades are executed
  • Past patterns do not guarantee future results
  • Always verify opportunities manually before trading
  • Not financial advice
  • 本Skill仅执行只读分析——不会执行任何交易
  • 过往模式不代表未来结果
  • 交易前请务必手动验证机会
  • 本内容并非财务建议