market-analyzer

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Market Analyzer

市场分析工具（Market Analyzer）

Produces structured market analysis reports: sizes the addressable market using top-down and bottom-up methods, identifies growth trajectories and adoption stages, segments customers, and assesses timing. Every estimate cites a data source or states its assumption explicitly.

生成结构化市场分析报告：采用自上而下和自下而上的方法测算可触达市场规模，识别增长轨迹与技术 adoption 阶段，划分客户群体，并评估进入时机。所有估算数据均标注数据源或明确说明假设前提。

Reference Files

参考文件

File	Contents	Load When
`references/tam-sam-som.md`	TAM/SAM/SOM definitions, calculation formulas, common mistakes	Always
`references/trend-analysis.md`	Trend categorization framework, adoption lifecycle, timing signals	Always
`references/market-sizing.md`	Data sources, estimation techniques, confidence framework	Always

文件名称	内容说明	加载时机
`references/tam-sam-som.md`	TAM/SAM/SOM定义、计算公式及常见误区	始终加载
`references/trend-analysis.md`	趋势分类框架、技术 adoption 生命周期、时机信号	始终加载
`references/market-sizing.md`	数据源、估算方法、置信度框架	始终加载

Prerequisites

前提条件

Product, feature, or business idea description
Target geography (default: global)
Target customer segment (if known)

产品、功能或商业创意的描述
目标地域（默认：全球）
目标客户群体（如有明确信息）

Workflow

工作流程

Phase 1: Input Understanding

阶段1：输入理解

Classify the input — Determine whether the subject is a product idea, feature, market category, or industry vertical.
Extract key attributes:
- Target customer profile
- Value proposition or core problem solved
- Geography and regulatory jurisdiction
- Price range or monetization model (if known)
- Competitive alternatives
Clarify gaps — If critical context is missing (target customer, geography, or value proposition), ask 3-5 targeted clarifying questions before proceeding.

输入分类 — 判断分析主体是产品创意、功能、市场类别还是行业垂直领域。
提取关键属性：
- 目标客户画像
- 价值主张或解决的核心问题
- 地域及监管管辖范围
- 价格区间或盈利模式（如有明确信息）
- 竞品替代方案
明确信息缺口 — 若缺少关键背景信息（如目标客户、地域或价值主张），先提出3-5个针对性的澄清问题，再开展后续工作。

Phase 2: Market Research

阶段2：市场调研

Use WebSearch to gather quantitative market data:

Industry reports — Search for market size reports from Statista, Grand View Research, Fortune Business Insights, IBISWorld, and similar aggregators.
Growth rates — Identify CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) for the relevant market and adjacent segments.
Funding signals — Search Crunchbase, PitchBook coverage, and venture capital trends in the space.
Consumer trends — Google Trends data, social media volume, and news sentiment.
Academic research — Search Semantic Scholar for relevant market studies, adoption research, and behavioral economics papers.
Government/public data — Census Bureau, BLS, World Bank, OECD datasets for demographic and economic baselines.

For each data point, record the source, publication date, and methodology (if available).

通过WebSearch收集量化市场数据：

行业报告 — 搜索Statista、Grand View Research、Fortune Business Insights、IBISWorld等数据聚合平台的市场规模报告。
增长率 — 识别相关市场及相邻细分领域的CAGR（Compound Annual Growth Rate，复合年增长率）。
融资信号 — 搜索Crunchbase、PitchBook的相关报道，以及该领域的风险投资趋势。
消费者趋势 — Google Trends数据、社交媒体讨论量及新闻舆情。
学术研究 — 在Semantic Scholar搜索相关市场研究、技术 adoption 研究及行为经济学论文。
政府/公共数据 — 人口普查局、劳工统计局（BLS）、世界银行、经合组织（OECD）的人口统计及经济基准数据集。

针对每个数据点，记录数据源、发布日期及可用的研究方法。

Phase 3: TAM/SAM/SOM Calculation

阶段3：TAM/SAM/SOM测算

Apply both estimation approaches and cross-validate:

Top-down (from total industry):

TAM = Total industry revenue or total potential buyers x average revenue per buyer
SAM = TAM x % addressable by geography, segment, and channel
SOM = SAM x realistic capture rate (year 1-3)

Bottom-up (from unit economics):

Reachable customers = Identified target accounts or users in reachable channels
SOM = Reachable customers x conversion rate x average revenue per customer
SAM = SOM scaled to full serviceable segment (remove channel constraints)
TAM = SAM scaled to total market (remove geographic/segment constraints)

Cross-validate the two approaches. If they diverge by more than 3x, investigate the discrepancy and document the reason.

应用两种估算方法并交叉验证：

自上而下法（从整个行业出发）：

TAM = 行业总营收或潜在买家总数 × 平均单客营收
SAM = TAM × 受地域、客户群体及渠道限制的可触达比例
SOM = SAM × 实际可捕获率（第1-3年）

自下而上法（从单位经济出发）：

可触达客户 = 可触达渠道中的目标客户账户或用户数量
SOM = 可触达客户 × 转化率 × 平均单客营收
SAM = SOM 扩展至整个可服务客户群体（移除渠道限制）
TAM = SAM 扩展至整个市场（移除地域/客户群体限制）

交叉验证两种方法的结果。若结果差异超过3倍，需调查差异原因并记录。

Phase 4: Trend and Timing Assessment

阶段4：趋势与时机评估

Evaluate four dimensions:

Market growth trajectory — Classify as emerging (pre-revenue), growing (CAGR > 10%), mature (CAGR 0-5%), or declining (negative CAGR).
Technology adoption stage — Map to Rogers curve: innovators (< 2.5%), early adopters (2.5-16%), early majority (16-50%), late majority (50-84%), laggards (> 84%).
Regulatory environment — Identify tailwinds (subsidies, mandates) and headwinds (restrictions, compliance costs).
Macro trends — Economic conditions, demographic shifts, technological enablers that accelerate or hinder the market.

从四个维度进行评估：

市场增长轨迹 — 划分为新兴（未盈利）、增长（CAGR > 10%）、成熟（CAGR 0-5%）或衰退（负CAGR）。
技术 adoption 阶段 — 对应罗杰斯曲线（Rogers curve）：创新者(< 2.5%)、早期尝鲜者(2.5-16%)、早期大众(16-50%)、晚期大众(50-84%)、落后者(> 84%)。
监管环境 — 识别利好因素（补贴、强制政策）及不利因素（限制、合规成本）。
宏观趋势 — 加速或阻碍市场发展的经济环境、人口结构变化、技术赋能因素。

Phase 5: Customer Segmentation

阶段5：客户群体划分

Identify 2-5 distinct customer segments:

Demographics — Age, income, geography, company size (B2B)
Behavioral — Usage patterns, purchase triggers, switching costs
Willingness to pay — Price sensitivity signals, competitive pricing data
Segment sizing — Estimated size and growth rate per segment

识别2-5个不同的客户群体：

人口统计特征 — 年龄、收入、地域、企业规模（B2B场景）
行为特征 — 使用模式、购买触发因素、转换成本
付费意愿 — 价格敏感度信号、竞品定价数据
群体规模 — 每个群体的估算规模及增长率

Phase 6: Report Generation

阶段6：报告生成

Produce the structured output below.

生成以下结构化输出内容。

Output Format

输出格式

text

undefined

text

undefined

Market Analysis: {Subject}

市场分析：{分析主体}

Executive Summary

执行摘要

Market Opportunity Score: {1-5}/5 {2-3 sentence summary of the opportunity, key market size, and timing assessment.}

市场机会评分：{1-5}/5 {2-3句话总结市场机会、核心市场规模及时机评估结果。}

TAM / SAM / SOM

Level	Value	Methodology	Confidence
TAM	${amount}	{Top-down / Bottom-up / Both}	{High/Medium/Low}
SAM	${amount}	{methodology summary}	{High/Medium/Low}
SOM (Year 1)	${amount}	{methodology summary}	{High/Medium/Low}
SOM (Year 3)	${amount}	{methodology summary}	{High/Medium/Low}

Top-down calculation: {Step-by-step derivation with sources}

Bottom-up calculation: {Step-by-step derivation with sources}

Cross-validation: {Comparison of approaches, explanation of any divergence}

层级	数值	测算方法	置信度
TAM	${金额}	{自上而下 / 自下而上 / 两种结合}	{高/中/低}
SAM	${金额}	{方法概述}	{高/中/低}
SOM（第1年）	${金额}	{方法概述}	{高/中/低}
SOM（第3年）	${金额}	{方法概述}	{高/中/低}

自上而下测算过程： {带数据源的分步推导}

自下而上测算过程： {带数据源的分步推导}

交叉验证： {两种方法的对比，差异原因解释}

Market Trends

市场趋势

Dimension	Assessment	Evidence
Growth trajectory	{Emerging/Growing/Mature/Declining}	{CAGR, data source}
Adoption stage	{Innovators/Early Adopters/Early Majority/Late Majority}	{penetration %, signal}
Regulatory	{Tailwind/Neutral/Headwind}	{specific regulation or policy}
Macro trends	{Favorable/Mixed/Unfavorable}	{key trend}

维度	评估结果	依据
增长轨迹	{新兴/增长/成熟/衰退}	{CAGR，数据源}
adoption阶段	{创新者/早期尝鲜者/早期大众/晚期大众}	{渗透率%，信号}
监管环境	{利好/中性/不利}	{具体法规或政策}
宏观趋势	{有利/混合/不利}	{核心趋势}

Customer Segments

客户群体

Segment	Size	Growth	WTP Signal	Priority
{name}	{size}	{rate}	{signal}	{Primary/Secondary/Tertiary}

群体名称	规模	增长率	付费意愿信号	优先级
{名称}	{规模}	{增长率}	{信号}	{核心/次要/三级}

Key Risks and Assumptions

关键风险与假设

#	Assumption	Impact if Wrong	Confidence
1	{assumption}	{impact}	{High/Medium/Low}

序号	假设前提	错误影响	置信度
1	{假设内容}	{影响描述}	{高/中/低}

Data Quality Assessment

数据质量评估

Data Point	Source	Date	Quality
{metric}	{source}	{date}	{Verified/Estimated/Extrapolated}

数据指标	数据源	日期	质量等级
{指标}	{数据源}	{日期}	{已验证/估算/外推}

Recommendation

建议

{1-2 paragraphs: proceed/pivot/investigate further, with specific next steps.}

undefined

{1-2段文字：建议推进/调整方向/进一步调研，包含具体下一步行动。}

undefined

Scoring Criteria: Market Opportunity Score

市场机会评分标准

Score	Meaning	Criteria
5	Exceptional	Large TAM (> $10B), growing (> 15% CAGR), early adoption stage, regulatory tailwinds
4	Strong	Large TAM or high growth, favorable timing, manageable competition
3	Moderate	Mid-size market, moderate growth, competitive but differentiation possible
2	Challenging	Small or saturated market, mature stage, significant headwinds
1	Unfavorable	Declining market, regulatory barriers, limited differentiation

评分	含义	标准
5	极佳	大型TAM（>100亿美元）、高增长（CAGR>15%）、早期adoption阶段、监管利好
4	优秀	大型TAM或高增长、时机有利、竞争可控
3	中等	中型市场、中等增长、竞争存在但可差异化竞争
2	具挑战性	小型或饱和市场、成熟阶段、显著不利因素
1	不利	衰退市场、监管壁垒、差异化空间有限

Quality Rules

质量规则

Every number needs a source. Cite the report, database, or methodology used. If no source exists, label the estimate as "Author extrapolation" and state the assumption chain.
Distinguish data from extrapolation. Use the Data Quality Assessment table to make this explicit for every key metric.
Confidence levels are mandatory. Each TAM/SAM/SOM figure carries a confidence rating with rationale.
Cross-validate estimates. Run both top-down and bottom-up. If only one approach is feasible, state why and reduce confidence.
Date your data. Market data older than 3 years gets a lower confidence rating. Flag any pre-2022 data explicitly.
No vanity TAMs. The TAM must be genuinely addressable by the product category, not inflated by including tangential markets.

所有数据需标注来源。引用所使用的报告、数据库或方法。若无数据源，标注为“作者外推”并说明假设链。
区分数据与外推内容。通过数据质量评估表明确标注每个关键指标的属性。
必须标注置信度。每个TAM/SAM/SOM数值需附带置信度评级及理由。
交叉验证估算结果。同时采用自上而下和自下而上法。若仅一种方法可行，说明原因并降低置信度。
标注数据日期。3年以上的市场数据置信度评级降低。明确标记2022年之前的数据。
禁止虚高TAM。TAM必须是产品类别真正可触达的市场，不得通过纳入无关市场来夸大规模。

Error Handling

错误处理

Problem	Resolution
No market data available	Use proxy markets and analogies. State the proxy explicitly. Reduce confidence to Low.
Input too vague to size	Ask clarifying questions (target customer, geography, price point) before proceeding.
Conflicting data sources	Present both figures, explain the discrepancy, use the more conservative estimate.
Market is too new for reliable data	Size the adjacent market the product displaces. Note the nascent stage.
User wants a single TAM number	Provide the range (conservative to optimistic) with the methodology behind each bound.

问题	解决方法
无可用市场数据	使用替代市场及类比方法。明确说明替代依据。将置信度降至低。
输入信息过于模糊无法测算	先提出澄清问题（目标客户、地域、价格点），再开展工作。
数据源冲突	呈现两个数据结果，解释差异原因，采用更保守的估算值。
市场过于新颖无可靠数据	测算产品将替代的相邻市场规模。注明市场处于初期阶段。
用户要求单一TAM数值	提供范围（保守值至乐观值）及每个边界的测算方法。

When NOT to Analyze

不适用场景

Push back if:

The request is for financial projections or revenue forecasting (different skill domain)
The request is for pricing strategy or competitive positioning (strategy, not analysis)
The market definition is so broad it has no analytical value ("the internet economy")
The user has not defined what the product or idea actually does

若出现以下情况，需拒绝请求：

请求内容为财务预测或收入预测（属于不同技能领域）
请求内容为定价策略或竞品定位（属于战略范畴，非分析领域）
市场定义过于宽泛，无分析价值（如“互联网经济”）
用户未明确说明产品或创意的具体功能