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Betting Analysis

博彩分析

Quick Start

快速开始

bash
sports-skills betting convert_odds --odds=-150 --from_format=american
sports-skills betting devig --odds=-150,+130 --format=american
sports-skills betting find_edge --fair_prob=0.58 --market_prob=0.52
sports-skills betting evaluate_bet --book_odds=-150,+130 --market_prob=0.52
sports-skills betting find_arbitrage --market_probs=0.48,0.49
sports-skills betting parlay_analysis --legs=0.58,0.62,0.55 --parlay_odds=600
sports-skills betting line_movement --open_odds=-140 --close_odds=-160
Python SDK:
python
from sports_skills import betting

betting.convert_odds(odds=-150, from_format="american")
betting.devig(odds="-150,+130", format="american")
betting.find_edge(fair_prob=0.58, market_prob=0.52)
betting.find_arbitrage(market_probs="0.48,0.49")
betting.parlay_analysis(legs="0.58,0.62,0.55", parlay_odds=600)
betting.line_movement(open_odds=-140, close_odds=-160)
bash
sports-skills betting convert_odds --odds=-150 --from_format=american
sports-skills betting devig --odds=-150,+130 --format=american
sports-skills betting find_edge --fair_prob=0.58 --market_prob=0.52
sports-skills betting evaluate_bet --book_odds=-150,+130 --market_prob=0.52
sports-skills betting find_arbitrage --market_probs=0.48,0.49
sports-skills betting parlay_analysis --legs=0.58,0.62,0.55 --parlay_odds=600
sports-skills betting line_movement --open_odds=-140 --close_odds=-160
Python SDK:
python
from sports_skills import betting

betting.convert_odds(odds=-150, from_format="american")
betting.devig(odds="-150,+130", format="american")
betting.find_edge(fair_prob=0.58, market_prob=0.52)
betting.find_arbitrage(market_probs="0.48,0.49")
betting.parlay_analysis(legs="0.58,0.62,0.55", parlay_odds=600)
betting.line_movement(open_odds=-140, close_odds=-160)

Odds Formats

赔率格式

FormatExampleDescription
American
-150
, 
+130
US sportsbook standard. Negative = favorite, positive = underdog
Decimal
1.67
, 
2.30
European standard. Payout per $1 (includes stake)
Probability
0.60
, 
0.43
Direct implied probability (0-1). Polymarket uses this format
Conversion rules:
  • American negative: prob = -odds / (-odds + 100). Example: -150 → 150/250 = 0.600
  • American positive: prob = 100 / (odds + 100). Example: +130 → 100/230 = 0.435
  • Decimal: prob = 1 / odds. Example: 1.67 → 0.599
  • Kalshi prices (0-100 integer): divide by 100 to get probability format
格式示例说明
美式
-150
, 
+130
美国博彩公司标准格式。负数代表热门方，正数代表冷门方
欧式
1.67
, 
2.30
欧洲标准格式。每1美元的 payout（包含本金）
概率
0.60
, 
0.43
直接隐含概率（0-1）。Polymarket 使用此格式
转换规则：
  • 美式负数：概率 = -赔率 / (-赔率 + 100)。示例：-150 → 150/250 = 0.600
  • 美式正数：概率 = 100 / (赔率 + 100)。示例：+130 → 100/230 = 0.435
  • 欧式：概率 = 1 / 赔率。示例：1.67 → 0.599
  • Kalshi 价格（0-100整数）：除以100转换为概率格式

Commands

命令列表

CommandRequiredOptionalDescription
convert_odds
odds, from_formatConvert between American, decimal, probability
devig
oddsformatRemove vig from sportsbook odds → fair probabilities
find_edge
fair_prob, market_probCompute edge, EV, and Kelly from two probabilities
kelly_criterion
fair_prob, market_probKelly fraction for optimal bet sizing
evaluate_bet
book_odds, market_probbook_format, outcomeFull pipeline: devig → edge → Kelly
find_arbitrage
market_probslabelsDetect arbitrage across outcomes from multiple sources
parlay_analysis
legs, parlay_oddsodds_format, correlationMulti-leg parlay EV and Kelly analysis
line_movement
open_odds, close_odds, open_line, close_line, market_typeAnalyze open-to-close line movement
命令必填参数可选参数说明
convert_odds
odds, from_format在美式、欧式、概率格式之间转换
devig
oddsformat去除博彩公司赔率中的抽水，得到公平概率
find_edge
fair_prob, market_prob根据两个概率计算优势、期望值（EV）和凯利比例
kelly_criterion
fair_prob, market_prob计算最优投注规模的凯利比例
evaluate_bet
book_odds, market_probbook_format, outcome完整流程：去抽水 → 计算优势 → 凯利比例
find_arbitrage
market_probslabels检测多来源不同结果之间的套利机会
parlay_analysis
legs, parlay_oddsodds_format, correlation多场次串关的期望值和凯利分析
line_movement
open_odds, close_odds, open_line, close_line, market_type分析开盘到收盘的盘口变动

Workflows

工作流

Workflow: Compare ESPN vs Polymarket/Kalshi

工作流：对比ESPN与Polymarket/Kalshi

This is the primary workflow. The agent already has odds from ESPN and a prediction market — no user estimation needed.
  1. Get ESPN moneyline odds for a game (e.g., from 
    nba get_scoreboard
    ):
    • Home: 
      -150
      , Away: 
      +130
  2. Get Polymarket/Kalshi price for the same outcome (e.g., home team at 
    0.52
    ).
  3. De-vig the ESPN odds to get fair probabilities: 
    devig --odds=-150,+130 --format=american
    → Fair: Home 57.9%, Away 42.1% (removed ~3.5% vig)
  4. Compare fair prob to market price: 
    find_edge --fair_prob=0.579 --market_prob=0.52
    → Edge: 5.9%, EV: 11.3%, Kelly: 0.123
  5. Or do it all in one step: 
    evaluate_bet --book_odds=-150,+130 --market_prob=0.52
这是核心工作流。工具可对接ESPN赔率和预测市场数据——无需用户自行估算。
  1. 获取某场比赛的ESPN金钱线赔率（例如通过
    nba get_scoreboard
    ）：
    • 主队：
      -150
      ，客队：
      +130
  2. 获取同一结果的Polymarket/Kalshi价格（例如主队为
    0.52
    ）。
  3. 对ESPN赔率去抽水，得到公平概率： 
    devig --odds=-150,+130 --format=american
    → 公平概率：主队57.9%，客队42.1%（去除了约3.5%的抽水）
  4. 对比公平概率与市场价格： 
    find_edge --fair_prob=0.579 --market_prob=0.52
    → 优势：5.9%，期望值：11.3%，凯利比例：0.123
  5. 或一步完成全部流程： 
    evaluate_bet --book_odds=-150,+130 --market_prob=0.52

Workflow: Arbitrage Detection

工作流：套利检测

Spot guaranteed-profit opportunities when prices across sources don't sum to 100%.
  1. Get the best available price per outcome from different sources:
    • Source A (Polymarket): Home team at 0.48
    • Source B (Kalshi): Away team at 0.49
  2. find_arbitrage --market_probs=0.48,0.49 --labels=home,away
    → Total implied: 0.97 (< 1.0 = arbitrage!) → Guaranteed ROI: 3.09% → Allocation: 49.5% on home, 50.5% on away
  3. For 3-way football markets: 
    find_arbitrage --market_probs=0.40,0.25,0.30 --labels=home,draw,away
当不同来源的价格总和不等于100%时，发现保本获利的机会。
  1. 从不同来源获取每个结果的最优价格：
    • 来源A（Polymarket）：主队0.48
    • 来源B（Kalshi）：客队0.49
  2. find_arbitrage --market_probs=0.48,0.49 --labels=home,away
    → 总隐含概率：0.97（<1.0 = 存在套利机会！） → 保本投资回报率：3.09% → 资金分配：主队49.5%，客队50.5%
  3. 对于足球三结果市场：
    find_arbitrage --market_probs=0.40,0.25,0.30 --labels=home,draw,away

Workflow: Parlay Evaluation

工作流：串关评估

Evaluate multi-leg parlays to see if the offered odds are +EV.
  1. De-vig each leg to get fair probabilities:
    • Leg 1: 
      devig --odds=-150,+130
      → fair prob 0.58
    • Leg 2: 
      devig --odds=-130,+110
      → fair prob 0.55
    • Leg 3: 
      devig --odds=-110,-110
      → fair prob 0.50
  2. parlay_analysis --legs=0.58,0.55,0.50 --parlay_odds=600
    → Combined fair: 15.95%, offered +600 implies 14.29% → Edge: 1.66%, +EV
  3. If legs are correlated (e.g. same-game parlay): add 
    --correlation=0.1
    — this increases combined probability since correlated events are more likely to co-occur
评估多场次串关是否具有正期望值。
  1. 对每个场次去抽水，得到公平概率：
    • 场次1：
      devig --odds=-150,+130
      → 公平概率0.58
    • 场次2：
      devig --odds=-130,+110
      → 公平概率0.55
    • 场次3：
      devig --odds=-110,-110
      → 公平概率0.50
  2. parlay_analysis --legs=0.58,0.55,0.50 --parlay_odds=600
    → 联合公平概率：15.95%，提供的+600赔率隐含14.29%的概率 → 优势：1.66%，正期望值
  3. 如果场次之间存在相关性（例如同场串关）：添加
    --correlation=0.1
    ——由于相关事件同时发生的概率更高，这会提高联合概率

Workflow: Line Movement from ESPN

工作流：ESPN盘口变动分析

Quantify how a line has moved and what it implies about sharp money.
  1. Get ESPN odds for a game — both open and close lines are available:
    • Open moneyline: -140, Close moneyline: -160
    • Open spread: -6.5, Close spread: -7.5
  2. line_movement --open_odds=-140 --close_odds=-160
    → Probability shift: +3.21% toward favorite → Classification: sharp_action
  3. With spread too: 
    line_movement --open_odds=-140 --close_odds=-160 --open_line=-6.5 --close_line=-7.5
    → If ML and spread move same direction: sharp action confirmed → If they move opposite: reverse line movement (public vs sharp split)
量化盘口变动情况及其背后的专业投注者资金流向含义。
  1. 获取某场比赛的ESPN赔率——开盘和收盘盘口均可用：
    • 开盘金钱线：-140，收盘金钱线：-160
    • 开盘让分：-6.5，收盘让分：-7.5
  2. line_movement --open_odds=-140 --close_odds=-160
    → 概率变动：热门方概率增加3.21% → 分类：sharp_action（专业投注动作）
  3. 结合让分盘分析：
    line_movement --open_odds=-140 --close_odds=-160 --open_line=-6.5 --close_line=-7.5
    → 如果金钱线和让分盘变动方向一致：确认专业投注动作 → 如果变动方向相反：反向盘口变动（大众投注与专业投注者意见分歧）

Workflow: De-Vig Sportsbook Odds

工作流：博彩公司赔率去抽水

Strip the vig/juice from DraftKings odds to see the "true" implied probabilities.
  1. devig --odds=-110,-110 --format=american
    → Each side is 50.0% fair (standard -110/-110 spread/total)
  2. devig --odds=-200,+170 --format=american
    → Favorite: 65.2%, Underdog: 34.8%
  3. devig --odds=-150,+300,+400 --format=american
    (3-way football) → Home: 47.3%, Draw: 19.8%, Away: 15.7%
去除DraftKings赔率中的抽水（vig/juice），查看“真实”的隐含概率。
  1. devig --odds=-110,-110 --format=american
    → 双方公平概率均为50.0%（标准-110/-110让分盘/总分盘）
  2. devig --odds=-200,+170 --format=american
    → 热门方：65.2%，冷门方：34.8%
  3. devig --odds=-150,+300,+400 --format=american
    （足球三结果） → 主队：47.3%，平局：19.8%，客队：15.7%

Workflow: Odds Conversion

工作流：赔率转换

Convert odds from one format to another.
  1. convert_odds --odds=-150 --from_format=american
    → Probability: 60.0%, Decimal: 1.6667
  2. convert_odds --odds=2.50 --from_format=decimal
    → Probability: 40.0%, American: +150
在不同格式之间转换赔率。
  1. convert_odds --odds=-150 --from_format=american
    → 概率：60.0%，欧式赔率：1.6667
  2. convert_odds --odds=2.50 --from_format=decimal
    → 概率：40.0%，美式赔率：+150

Examples

示例

User: "Is there edge on the Lakers game? ESPN has them at -150 and Polymarket has them at 52 cents"
  1. devig --odds=-150,+130 --format=american
    → Fair home prob ~58%
  2. find_edge --fair_prob=0.58 --market_prob=0.52
    → Edge ~6%, positive EV
  3. kelly_criterion --fair_prob=0.58 --market_prob=0.52
    → Kelly fraction
  4. Present: edge, EV per dollar, recommended bet size as % of bankroll
User: "Can I arb this? Polymarket has home at 48 cents and Kalshi has away at 49 cents"
  1. find_arbitrage --market_probs=0.48,0.49 --labels=home,away
  2. If arbitrage_found: present allocation percentages and guaranteed ROI
  3. If not: present the overround and explain there's no guaranteed profit
User: "Is this 3-leg parlay at +600 worth it?"
  1. De-vig each leg to get fair probs (e.g. 0.58, 0.62, 0.55)
  2. parlay_analysis --legs=0.58,0.62,0.55 --parlay_odds=600
  3. Present: combined fair prob, edge, EV, +EV or -EV, Kelly fraction
User: "The line moved from -140 to -160, what does that mean?"
  1. line_movement --open_odds=-140 --close_odds=-160
  2. Present: probability shift, direction, magnitude, classification (sharp action, steam move, etc.)
User: "What are the true odds for this spread? Both sides are -110"
  1. devig --odds=-110,-110 --format=american
  2. Present: each side is 50% fair probability, vig is ~4.5%
User: "Convert -200 to implied probability"
  1. convert_odds --odds=-200 --from_format=american
  2. Present: 66.7% implied probability, 1.50 decimal odds
用户：“湖人这场比赛有投注优势吗？ESPN给出的赔率是-150，Polymarket的价格是52分”
  1. devig --odds=-150,+130 --format=american
    → 主队公平概率约58%
  2. find_edge --fair_prob=0.58 --market_prob=0.52
    → 优势约6%，正期望值
  3. kelly_criterion --fair_prob=0.58 --market_prob=0.52
    → 计算凯利比例
  4. 展示内容：优势、每美元期望值、推荐投注占资金的比例
用户：“这个能套利吗？Polymarket主队是48分，Kalshi客队是49分”
  1. find_arbitrage --market_probs=0.48,0.49 --labels=home,away
  2. 如果发现套利：展示资金分配比例和保本投资回报率
  3. 如果没有套利：展示总隐含概率并说明无保本获利机会
用户：“这个3场串关+600的赔率值得投吗？”
  1. 对每个场次去抽水得到公平概率（例如0.58, 0.62, 0.55）
  2. parlay_analysis --legs=0.58,0.62,0.55 --parlay_odds=600
  3. 展示内容：联合公平概率、优势、期望值、正/负期望值、凯利比例
用户：“盘口从-140变成-160，这意味着什么？”
  1. line_movement --open_odds=-140 --close_odds=-160
  2. 展示内容：概率变动、方向、幅度、分类（专业投注动作、资金涌入等）
用户：“这个让分盘的真实赔率是多少？双方都是-110”
  1. devig --odds=-110,-110 --format=american
  2. 展示内容：双方公平概率均为50%，抽水约4.5%
用户：“把-200转换成隐含概率”
  1. convert_odds --odds=-200 --from_format=american
  2. 展示内容：隐含概率66.7%，欧式赔率1.50

Commands that DO NOT exist — never call these

不存在的命令——请勿调用

  • get_odds
     — does not exist. This module analyzes odds, it doesn't fetch them. Use nba-data/nfl-data/etc. for ESPN odds, or polymarket/kalshi for prediction market prices.
  • calculate_ev
     — does not exist. Use 
    find_edge
    or 
    evaluate_bet
    instead.
  • compare_markets
     — does not exist. Use the 
    markets
    skill for cross-platform comparison.
If a command is not listed in the Commands section above, it does not exist.
  • get_odds
     —— 不存在。本模块仅分析赔率，不获取赔率。如需ESPN赔率请使用nba-data/nfl-data等工具，如需预测市场价格请使用Polymarket/Kalshi工具。
  • calculate_ev
     —— 不存在。请使用
    find_edge
    或
    evaluate_bet
    替代。
  • compare_markets
     —— 不存在。请使用
    markets
    工具进行跨平台对比。
如果某命令未在上述命令列表中列出，则该命令不存在。

Key Concepts

核心概念

  • Vig/Juice: The sportsbook's margin. A -110/-110 line implies 52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8% total, meaning 4.8% overround. De-vigging removes this to get fair probabilities.
  • Edge: The difference between your estimated true probability and the market price. Positive edge = profitable in expectation.
  • Kelly Criterion: Optimal bet sizing that maximizes long-term growth. f* = (fair_prob - market_prob) / (1 - market_prob). For conservative sizing, multiply the Kelly fraction by 0.5 (half-Kelly) or 0.25 (quarter-Kelly).
  • Expected Value (EV): Average return per dollar bet. EV = fair_prob / market_prob - 1.
  • Arbitrage: When prices across sources don't sum to 100%, you can bet all outcomes and guarantee profit regardless of the result.
  • Parlay: A multi-leg bet where all legs must win. Combined probability = product of individual leg probabilities. Higher risk, higher reward. Check if the offered odds exceed the fair combined odds.
  • Line Movement: How odds change between open and close. Large moves toward one side suggest sharp/professional money. Reverse line movement (moneyline and spread moving opposite directions) suggests a public vs sharp split.
  • Vig/Juice: 博彩公司的利润空间。-110/-110的盘口意味着52.4% + 52.4% = 104.8%的总概率，即4.8%的抽水。去抽水后可得到公平概率。
  • Edge: 你估算的真实概率与市场价格之间的差值。正优势意味着长期来看可获利。
  • Kelly Criterion: 最大化长期资金增长的最优投注比例公式。f* = (fair_prob - market_prob) / (1 - market_prob)。为保守起见，可将凯利比例乘以0.5（半凯利）或0.25（四分之一凯利）。
  • Expected Value (EV): 每投注1美元的平均回报。EV = fair_prob / market_prob - 1。
  • Arbitrage: 当不同来源的价格总和不等于100%时，你可以对所有结果投注，无论最终结果如何都能保证获利。
  • Parlay: 多场次投注，所有场次必须获胜才能盈利。联合概率为各场次概率的乘积。风险更高，回报也更高。需检查提供的赔率是否超过公平联合赔率。
  • Line Movement: 盘口从开盘到收盘的变化情况。大幅偏向某一方的变动意味着专业投注者（sharp）的资金流入。反向盘口变动（金钱线与让分盘变动方向相反）意味着大众投注与专业投注者意见分歧。