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dividend-investing

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股息投资分析

Dividend Investment Analysis

评估股息投资机会,平衡当前收益与未来增长。
Evaluate dividend investment opportunities, balancing current returns with future growth.

核心指标

Core Metrics

  1. 股息率 - 年度股息/股价
  2. 股息支付率 - 股息/盈利 (建议<70%)
  3. 股息增长 - 连续增长年数
  4. 自由现金流覆盖率 - FCF/股息 (建议>1.2)
  1. Dividend Yield - Annual Dividend / Stock Price
  2. Dividend Payout Ratio - Dividends / Earnings (Recommended <70%)
  3. Dividend Growth - Number of consecutive years of growth
  4. Free Cash Flow Coverage Ratio - FCF / Dividends (Recommended >1.2)

分析步骤

Analysis Steps

  1. 计算当前股息率
  2. 评估支付安全性(支付率、FCF覆盖)
  3. 检查增长历史(连续年数、CAGR)
  4. 评估可持续性(行业、护城河)
  5. 计算综合得分
  1. Calculate the current dividend yield
  2. Evaluate payout safety (payout ratio, FCF coverage)
  3. Review growth history (consecutive years, CAGR)
  4. Evaluate sustainability (industry, moat)
  5. Calculate the comprehensive score

评分标准 (0-100分)

Scoring Criteria (0-100 Points)

  • 收益率 (0-25分): >6%优秀,4-6%良好,2-4%一般
  • 安全性 (0-35分): 支付率<50%优秀,<70%良好
  • 增长性 (0-25分): 连续>10年优秀,>5年良好
  • 可持续性 (0-15分): 护城河评分
  • Yield Rate (0-25 points): Excellent if >6%, Good if 4-6%, Fair if 2-4%
  • Safety (0-35 points): Excellent if payout ratio <50%, Good if <70%
  • Growth Potential (0-25 points): Excellent if consecutive growth >10 years, Good if >5 years
  • Sustainability (0-15 points): Moat rating

风险提示

Risk Warnings

  • ⚠️ 高股息率可能暗示经营困难
  • ⚠️ 检查股息是否来自借款
  • ⚠️ 周期行业股息不稳定
  • ⚠️ A high dividend yield may indicate operational difficulties
  • ⚠️ Check if dividends are funded by borrowings
  • ⚠️ Dividends in cyclical industries are unstable

工具和详细文档

Tools and Detailed Documents

  • 📁 详细分析框架
  • 📁 股息筛选标准
  • 📁 Rust实现参考
  • 🔧 dividend_analyzer.py - 股息分析工具
  • 📁 Detailed Analysis Framework
  • 📁 Dividend Screening Criteria
  • 📁 Rust Implementation Reference
  • 🔧 dividend_analyzer.py - Dividend Analysis Tool