longbridge-graham-stock-analysis
Prompt-only deep-value diagnostic. Given a single ticker, produces a Graham-style cigar-butt verdict: static cheapness score, dynamic trend adjustments, value-trap flagging, liquidation-value table, and an expected holding-period view. Every numeric input is reconciled across statements and footnoted to its source.
Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.
When to use
- "帮我诊断一下腾讯控股 00700" / "幫我診斷一下騰訊控股 00700" / "diagnose 700.HK with Graham cigar-butt"
- "BABA 是不是烟蒂股" / "BABA 是不是煙蒂股" / "is BABA a Graham net-net"
- "600519 NCAV 多少" / "600519 NCAV 多少" / "what is 600519's NCAV"
- "我持有这只股 6 个月了，还值得继续拿吗" / "我持有這隻股 6 個月了，還值得繼續拿嗎" / "I've held this 6 months, still worth holding"
- "这只股是真便宜还是价值陷阱" / "這隻股是真便宜還是價值陷阱" / "is this a real bargain or a value trap"
For multi-stock value screening use
. For DCF intrinsic value use
. For three-statement reading use
longbridge-financial-report
.
Cognitive frame (do not skip)
Graham cigar-butt is patient arbitrage, not a dip-buy signal. Expected holding periods: 6–18 months (explicit catalyst), 1–3 years (sector re-rating), 3–5 years (organic accrual), or never (value trap — exit). Every output must surface holding-period expectation alongside the score; never display a score number without it.
Two failure modes the user must be able to distinguish:
- "Cheap but time hasn't come" → NCAV stable, keep holding.
- "Value trap" → NCAV shrinking quarter on quarter, exit.
Workflow
- Resolve symbol to (e.g. , , ).
- Detect sector. If banking / insurance / REIT / pure financial → halt and tell the user NCAV is not the right model; suggest
longbridge-valuation-methodology
- Fetch raw data via Longbridge CLI first (parallel where possible). See §CLI.
- Reconciliation gate (勾稽校验) — internal correctness check; must pass before scoring. Do not print this check or its results in the report unless it fails. See §Reconciliation.
- Static score (0–100). See for the six-dimension table and NCAV haircut defaults.
- Dynamic adjustments — four factors (industry cycle, earnings trend, insider activity, NCAV trajectory). Industry-cycle data may not be in Longbridge; use WebSearch for PMI / inventory cycle / capacity utilisation. See §Dynamic.
- Value-trap check — if any 2 of 5 rules trip, override to "⚠️ value trap" regardless of static score. See §Value-trap.
- Output the 8-section report defined in ; finish with the Data source appendix (mandatory — every figure tagged to its source).
CLI
Run
longbridge <subcommand> --help
to verify exact flags before each call. Primary calls (run in parallel):
bash
# Balance sheet — NCAV inputs (cash, AR, inventory, other CA, ST/LT debt)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report af --format json # last 5 annual
longbridge financial-statement <SYMBOL> --kind BS --report qf --format json # last 4 quarterly (NCAV trajectory)
# Income statement — PE, earnings stability (5y no-loss), EPS trend (4q)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report af --format json
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind IS --report qf --format json
# Cash flow — operating CF (value-trap rule 4: persistent negative OCF)
longbridge financial-report <SYMBOL> --kind CF --report qf --format json
# Snapshot: PE, PB, market cap, dividend yield, shares outstanding
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge quote <SYMBOL> --format json
# Dividend history (for "等待成本" — 3% threshold)
longbridge dividend <SYMBOL> --format json
# Ownership / insider activity (value-trap rule 2: 大股东持续减持)
longbridge ownership <SYMBOL> --format json
longbridge insresearch <SYMBOL> --format json
WebSearch fallback (only when Longbridge has a gap)
Use WebSearch only for items not available from Longbridge:
| Missing data | WebSearch query pattern |
|---|
| Industry PMI / inventory cycle | "<industry name> PMI 2025"
"<industry> inventory cycle"
|
| Capacity utilisation | "<industry> capacity utilization"
|
| Sector outlook (qualitative) | "<sector> outlook 2025 site:reuters.com OR site:bloomberg.com"
|
| Recent insider transactions if is stale | "<ticker> insider selling 2025"
|
Each WebSearch-sourced figure must be tagged
[Source: WebSearch — <publisher>, <date>]
in the appendix; do
not mix it silently with Longbridge data.
Reconciliation (勾稽校验) — internal gate, not user-facing
Before any scoring, verify the fetched figures internally. Reconciliation is a correctness gate for the analysis pipeline; it is not part of the user-facing report. Do not print the check table, do not show per-row gap percentages, do not narrate "勾稽通过" in the conclusion. Reconciliation results only surface to the user in two situations:
- A check fails by > tolerance → halt scoring, tell the user which specific figure(s) cannot be relied on and why no score is emitted.
- A field carries a residual gap within tolerance that materially affects a downstream number → note it inline in the Data Source Appendix row for that field (e.g. "BS current-assets sum −1.4% vs reported total — within tolerance").
| Check | Formula | Tolerance |
|---|
| IS↔BS | This-period net income ≈ Δ Retained earnings (BS) − dividends paid (CF) | ±3% |
| IS↔CF | Net income + non-cash items (D&A + impairments + WC changes) ≈ Operating CF | ±5% |
| CF↔BS | ΔCash from CF = Cash(t) − Cash(t−1) on BS | ±1% |
| Current assets sum | Cash + AR + Inventory + Other CA ≈ Total current assets (BS) | ±2% |
| Liabilities sum | ST debt + LT debt + Other liabilities ≈ Total liabilities (BS) | ±2% |
| Shares outstanding | shares × current price ≈ market cap from | ±2% |
| Period alignment | All statements from the same fiscal period (or note the lag) | exact |
Silent-pass principle: if everything passes within tolerance, emit the scored report directly without referencing the reconciliation step at all.
Output
Single-stock diagnostic with
8 fixed sections (full template in
). The reconciliation check is an internal gate — do NOT include its table or pass/fail rows in the user-facing report; reconciliation only appears if a check failed (in which case no score is emitted) or if a residual within-tolerance gap needs to be flagged inline against a specific Data Source Appendix row.
- Adjusted cigar-butt score card (静态分 → 动态调整 → 调整后分, with verdict tier 🟢🟡🟠🔴)
- Six-dimension static breakdown (NCAV / PE / PB / dividend / debt coverage / earnings stability)
- Dynamic adjustment detail (industry cycle, EPS trend, insider activity, NCAV trajectory, value-trap verdict)
- Holding-period view (catalyst presence, waiting cost via dividend yield, expected horizon range)
- Liquidation-value table (default vs industry-adjusted haircuts, adjusted NCAV per share)
- Safety-margin price band (current price / default NCAV line / adjusted NCAV line / Graham buy line = adjusted NCAV × 0.67)
- Three-line verdict (valuation level / adjusted safety margin / holding recommendation)
- Data source appendix — mandatory; every figure tagged with source, fetch time, and period (and any within-tolerance reconciliation note for that field)
Always close with the boilerplate disclaimer (see
§Disclaimer).
Error handling
| Situation | 简体回复 | 繁體回覆 | English reply |
|---|
command not found: longbridge
| 回退到 MCP；若不可用，请安装 longbridge-terminal。 | 回退到 MCP；若不可用，請安裝 longbridge-terminal。 | Fall back to MCP; if unavailable install longbridge-terminal. |
| stderr | 请运行 。 | 請執行 。 | Run . |
| Sector = bank / insurance / REIT | NCAV 模型不适用于金融业，已切换提示；建议使用 longbridge-valuation-methodology
| NCAV 模型不適用於金融業，建議使用 longbridge-valuation-methodology
| NCAV does not fit financials; use longbridge-valuation-methodology
|
| Reconciliation fails >3% | 明确披露差异项与差异比例，不输出评分；建议用户复核或换数据源。 | 明確披露差異項與差異比例，不輸出評分。 | Disclose the failing check and the gap; do not emit a score. |
| Industry cycle data missing (WebSearch also empty) | 标注「动态调整层数据不足，仅显示静态评分」。 | 標注「動態調整層數據不足，僅顯示靜態評分」。 | Mark "dynamic layer unavailable, static score only". |
| < 5 years of financial history | 盈利稳定性维度按已披露年限按比例打分，并在数据源附录注明。 | 盈利穩定性按已披露年限比例打分，並於附錄註明。 | Score earnings stability pro-rata and note in source appendix. |
MCP fallback
If
CLI is not installed, use MCP tools:
| MCP tool | CLI equivalent |
|---|
mcp__longbridge__financial_report
| longbridge financial-report
|
mcp__longbridge__financial_statement
| longbridge financial-statement
|
mcp__longbridge__calc_indexes
| |
| |
mcp__longbridge__dividend
| |
mcp__longbridge__ownership
| |
MCP setup:
claude mcp add --transport http longbridge https://openapi.longbridge.com/mcp
(
scope).
Related skills
- Single-stock valuation (PE / PB / EV-EBITDA) →
- DCF intrinsic value →
- Multi-stock value screen →
- Three-statement reading →
longbridge-financial-report
- Cross-statement deep analysis →
longbridge-financial-analysis
- Method selection guide →
longbridge-valuation-methodology
File layout
longbridge-graham-stock-analysis/
├── SKILL.md
└── references/
├── scoring.md # static six-dimension table + NCAV haircuts + dynamic factors + value-trap rules
└── output.md # full 8-section output template + data-source appendix + disclaimer