longbridge-behavioral-finance
Apply behavioral finance theory to identify exploitable market inefficiencies — map common cognitive biases to measurable price/volume patterns using Longbridge data.
Response language: match the user's input language — Simplified Chinese / Traditional Chinese / English.
When to use
- "这只股票是不是过度反应了", "did the market overreact to this news", "這隻股票是否過度反應"
- "动量效应还是反转效应", "momentum or reversal for this sector"
- "处置效应怎么影响散户行为", "how does disposition effect affect retail traders"
- "现在市场有没有羊群效应", "is there herding in the market right now"
- "锚定效应怎么影响股价", "how does anchoring bias affect stock prices"
For quantitative factor testing (IC/IR), use
longbridge-factor-research
. For market temperature index, use
.
Bias catalogue and tradeable signals
1. Overreaction (过度反应)
Theory: Investors overweight recent bad/good news, pushing prices beyond fundamental value. De Bondt & Thaler (1985).
Signal: Long-term reversal. Stocks down 30–50% over 12M outperform over the next 12M; top performers underperform.
Detect:
bash
longbridge kline <SYMBOL> --period day --count 252 --format json
Compare 12M return vs peer group. If a stock is in the bottom 10% of sector returns, screen for reversal setup.
2. Underreaction (反应不足)
Theory: Investors are slow to update beliefs; price drifts gradually toward fair value after earnings surprises.
Signal: Post-earnings announcement drift (PEAD). Buy after positive earnings surprise; price continues rising for 1–3 months.
Detect: Use
to identify beats. Track price drift with
longbridge kline --period day --count 60
.
3. Disposition Effect (处置效应)
Theory: Investors sell winners too early and hold losers too long (Shefrin & Statman, 1985).
Market impact: Selling pressure on recent winners creates resistance near recent highs; support near cost basis concentrations.
Detect: High capital inflows after a price surge = retail profit-taking.
bash
longbridge capital <SYMBOL> --format json
4. Anchoring Bias (锚定效应)
Theory: Investors anchor to arbitrary reference prices (52-week high, IPO price, round numbers).
Signal: 52-week high breakout tends to persist (stocks resist breaking prior highs but accelerate once broken).
Detect: Fetch 52-week high from
longbridge calc-index <SYMBOL> --format json
or static data.
5. Herding (羊群效应)
Theory: Investors follow the crowd, amplifying trends beyond fundamentals.
Signal: Abnormal volume + price acceleration without fundamental catalyst = herding. Also: analyst consensus clustering.
Detect:
bash
longbridge market-temp --format json # Market sentiment index 0-100
longbridge capital <SYMBOL> --format json # Capital flow concentration
If market temperature > 80 and a single sector dominates capital inflow → herding warning.
6. Overconfidence (过度自信)
Theory: Investors overestimate precision of their forecasts, leading to under-diversification and excess trading.
Market impact: High turnover in bull markets; individual stocks show higher volatility than fundamentals justify.
Detect: Turnover rate spike from
longbridge quote <SYMBOL> --format json
(turnover_rate field).
Workflow
- Identify which bias the user is asking about (or scan all six).
- Fetch relevant data (kline / market-temp / capital flow).
- Map observed price/volume pattern to the bias.
- Quantify signal strength: magnitude, duration, persistence.
- Suggest a trading implication (entry / exit / avoid) with explicit caveats.
CLI
bash
longbridge kline --help
longbridge market-temp --help
longbridge capital --help
longbridge market-temp --format json
longbridge kline <SYMBOL> --period day --count 60 --format json
longbridge capital <SYMBOL> --format json
Output
Present:
- Identified bias and academic basis.
- Observable evidence from Longbridge data (specific numbers).
- Tradeable implication (signal direction, horizon, conviction).
- Risks: when the bias does not persist (e.g. mean-reversion fails in trending markets).
- Disclaimer: behavioral signals are probabilistic, not deterministic.
Error handling
| Situation | 简体回复 | 繁體回覆 | English reply |
|---|
command not found: longbridge
| 请安装 longbridge-terminal 或检查 MCP 配置。 | 請安裝 longbridge-terminal 或檢查 MCP 配置。 | Install longbridge-terminal or check MCP config. |
| stderr: | 请运行 。 | 請執行 。 | Run . |
| Insufficient price history | 历史数据不足，无法可靠识别偏差信号，请延长观察期。 | 歷史數據不足，請延長觀察期。 | Insufficient history to identify bias reliably; extend the lookback. |
Related skills
- — market sentiment temperature index
- — intraday capital flow and large/small order split
longbridge-factor-research
- — unusual price/volume movements
File layout
skills/longbridge-behavioral-finance/
└── SKILL.md