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diffusion-release-tracking

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Diffusion Release Tracking

扩散发布跟踪

Track adoption position on Rogers' bell curve. Decide when to expand each Release phase.
跟踪功能在罗杰斯创新扩散钟形曲线上的采用位置。确定何时推进每个发布阶段。

The 4 Release Gates

4个发布门限

[Ship] → [Innovator Gate] → [Early Adopter Gate] → [Chasm Gate] → [Majority Gate]
           ~2.5%               ~16%                   16→50%          50→100%
         flag on / internal    opt-in beta             beachhead        scale
Agent flow:
  1. Identify which gate the feature is currently at — ask user or infer from rollout %
  2. Collect signals for that gate only — do not ask about other gates
  3. Assess each signal against threshold
  4. Produce diagnosis + verdict + markdown report + next gate criteria
[Ship] → [Innovator Gate] → [Early Adopter Gate] → [Chasm Gate] → [Majority Gate]
           ~2.5%               ~16%                   16→50%          50→100%
         flag on / internal    opt-in beta             beachhead        scale
Agent流程：
  1. 确定功能当前所处的门限——询问用户或从发布百分比推断
  2. 仅收集当前门限的信号——不要询问其他门限的相关信息
  3. 根据阈值评估每个信号
  4. 生成诊断结果+结论+markdown报告+下一门限的准入标准

Gate 1: Innovator Gate

门限1：创新者门限

From: Ship (dark launch / internal flag on) To: Opt-in beta / first external users (~2.5%) Question: Is the feature stable and does it complete the core job?
SignalTypeGo Threshold
P0/P1 bug countQuant0 P0, ≤2 P1
Core job completion rateQuant≥70% of attempts succeed end-to-end
Internal team feedbackQual"Usable, no blockers" from dogfood users
Dark launch error rateQuant≤1% server errors on feature path
起始阶段： Ship（暗发布/内部功能 flag 开启） 目标阶段： 可选加入测试版/首批外部用户（约2.5%） 核心问题： 功能是否稳定，能否完成核心任务？
信号类型放行阈值
P0/P1 bug数量量化指标0个P0，≤2个P1
核心任务完成率量化指标≥70%的尝试能端到端成功完成
内部团队反馈定性指标内部试用用户反馈“可用，无阻塞问题”
暗发布错误率量化指标功能路径上的服务器错误率≤1%

Gate 2: Early Adopter Gate

门限2：早期采用者门限

From: Opt-in beta To: 5–20% phased rollout Question: Is there retention signal and do users advocate for the feature?
SignalTypeGo Threshold
Feature activation rateQuant≥30% of exposed users trigger the feature at least once
Day-7 retentionQuant≥25% of activators return and use the feature again by day 7
"Aha moment" confirmedQual≥5 user interviews confirm the core value moment
Organic advocate signalQual≥1 user shares, recommends, or references the feature unprompted
起始阶段： 可选加入测试版 目标阶段： 5–20%分阶段发布 核心问题： 是否有留存信号，用户是否愿意推荐该功能？
信号类型放行阈值
功能激活率量化指标≥30%的触达用户至少触发一次该功能
7日留存率量化指标≥25%的激活用户在第7天再次返回使用该功能
“顿悟时刻”得到验证定性指标≥5次用户访谈确认核心价值时刻
自发推荐信号定性指标≥1位用户主动分享、推荐或提及该功能

Gate 3: Chasm Gate ← Most Critical

门限3：鸿沟门限 ← 最关键

From: 20% rollout To: 50% rollout Question: Is the whole product ready for pragmatic, risk-averse users?
The Chasm (Moore) is where most products die. Early Adopters tolerate rough edges; Early Majority demands a complete solution — docs, support, onboarding, proof.
SignalTypeGo Threshold
Retention curve shapeQuantCurve flattening after week 3, not still declining
NPS or CSATQuantNPS ≥20 or CSAT ≥4/5
Whole product gapsQualDocs, onboarding, and support sufficient for a non-technical user
Beachhead verticalQual1 niche segment dominated completely before expanding to adjacent segments
Reference storyQual≥1 customer case study with real ROI numbers, not just quotes
起始阶段： 20%发布范围 目标阶段： 50%发布范围 核心问题： 整个产品是否已准备好面向务实、规避风险的用户？
鸿沟（Moore理论）是大多数产品失败的地方。早期采用者可以容忍产品瑕疵；而早期大众则要求完整的解决方案——文档、支持、引导、实证。
信号类型放行阈值
留存曲线形态量化指标第3周后曲线趋于平稳，而非持续下降
NPS或CSAT量化指标NPS≥20 或 CSAT≥4/5
全产品缺口定性指标文档、引导和支持足以满足非技术用户需求
滩头垂直领域定性指标在扩展到相邻领域前，完全主导1个细分领域
参考案例定性指标≥1个包含真实ROI数据的客户案例研究，而非仅引用用户评价

Gate 4: Majority Gate

门限4：大众门限

From: 50% rollout To: 100% rollout Question: Are unit economics and infrastructure ready for full scale?
SignalTypeGo Threshold
Monthly churnQuant≤5% for B2B, ≤10% for consumer
Support ticket volumeQuantResolvable with current team without backlog growth
Scalability headroomQuantInfrastructure handles 3× current peak load
Pricing/standards fitQualLate Majority objections (price, compliance, standards) addressed
起始阶段： 50%发布范围 目标阶段： 100%发布范围 核心问题： 单位经济效益和基础设施是否已准备好全面规模化？
信号类型放行阈值
月度流失率量化指标B2B产品≤5%，消费类产品≤10%
支持工单量量化指标当前团队可处理，且不会导致工单积压增长
可扩展性余量量化指标基础设施可承受3倍于当前峰值的负载
定价/标准适配定性指标已解决后期大众用户的异议（价格、合规、标准）

Output Format

输出格式

After collecting signals, produce this report:
markdown
undefined
收集信号后，生成以下报告：
markdown
undefined

Rogers Diffusion Report — [Feature Name]

Rogers Diffusion Report — [Feature Name]

Date: YYYY-MM-DD Current Gate: [Gate Name] Rollout: X% of users
Date: YYYY-MM-DD Current Gate: [Gate Name] Rollout: X% of users

Signal Assessment

Signal Assessment

SignalStatusDetail
[signal name]✅/⚠️/❌[threshold vs actual value or observation]
SignalStatusDetail
[signal name]✅/⚠️/❌[threshold vs actual value or observation]

Diagnosis

Diagnosis

[2–4 sentences: current position on bell curve, which criteria are met or missing, primary risk to expansion.]
[2–4 sentences: current position on bell curve, which criteria are met or missing, primary risk to expansion.]

Recommendation

Recommendation

[✅ GO / ⚠️ CONDITIONAL GO / ❌ NO-GO] — [one-sentence action]. [If not full GO: what to fix before next gate.]
[✅ GO / ⚠️ CONDITIONAL GO / ❌ NO-GO] — [one-sentence action]. [If not full GO: what to fix before next gate.]

Next Gate Criteria

Next Gate Criteria

  • [criterion 1]
  • [criterion 2]

**Verdict levels:**
- `✅ GO` — All gate criteria met. Expand rollout to next phase.
- `⚠️ CONDITIONAL GO` — Majority met. Expand cautiously (hold at current %) while fixing gaps.
- `❌ NO-GO` — Critical criteria missing. Do not expand rollout. Address gaps first.

---
  • [criterion 1]
  • [criterion 2]

**结论等级：**
- `✅ GO` — 满足所有门限标准。将发布范围扩展至下一阶段。
- `⚠️ CONDITIONAL GO` — 满足大部分标准。谨慎扩展（保持当前发布百分比），同时修复缺口。
- `❌ NO-GO` — 缺失关键标准。不要扩大发布范围。先解决缺口问题。

---

Threshold Calibration Notes

阈值校准说明

Default thresholds are reasonable baselines. Agent should flag when context warrants adjustment:
  • B2B enterprise: Day-7 retention threshold may be lower (usage is weekly/monthly by nature)
  • Internal tooling: Advocate signal may be irrelevant; focus on job completion and error rate
  • Consumer viral product: Organic advocate signal is more critical, weight it higher
  • Regulated industry: Whole product gap check must include compliance/security sign-off
默认阈值是合理的基准线。当上下文需要调整时，Agent应标记出来：
  • B2B企业产品： 7日留存率阈值可能更低（使用频率本质上是每周/每月）
  • 内部工具： 推荐信号可能无关紧要；重点关注任务完成率和错误率
  • 消费类病毒式产品： 自发推荐信号更为关键，需提高其权重
  • 受监管行业： 全产品缺口检查必须包含合规/安全审批

Integration with Ship≠Release Workflow

与Ship≠Release工作流的集成

This skill operationalizes the Agile Delivery principle from 
business-product-leadership
:
  • Ship = code behind feature flag (before Innovator Gate)
  • Release = advancing through gates by turning flags on for wider cohorts
For strategic context on JTBD, market positioning, and The Chasm theory, use the 
business-product-leadership
skill.
该技能将
business-product-leadership
中的敏捷交付原则落地：
  • Ship = 功能flag后的代码（创新者门限之前）
  • Release = 通过为更广泛用户群体开启flag来推进门限阶段
如需关于JTBD、市场定位和鸿沟理论的战略背景信息，请使用
business-product-leadership
技能。

DORA Prerequisite: Deployment Frequency

DORA前置条件：部署频率

Before attempting phased gate advancement, assess DORA Deployment Frequency tier (use 
dora-core
skill):
DORA DF TierGate Strategy
Elite (on-demand)Full gate strategy applies — iterate rapidly per gate
High (daily–weekly)Gate iteration feasible — allow longer validation windows
Medium (weekly–monthly)Plan gate windows months in advance; reduce gate count
Low (monthly+)Fix DF first. Cannot run meaningful phased rollouts at this cadence
Low Deployment Frequency is a delivery bottleneck that makes Rogers gate validation impossible — by the time you gather signal, the market window has shifted.
在尝试推进分阶段门限之前，评估DORA部署频率层级（使用
dora-core
技能）：
DORA DF层级门限策略
精英级（按需部署）适用完整门限策略——按门限快速迭代
高级（每日–每周）可行门限迭代——允许更长的验证窗口
中级（每周–每月）提前数月规划门限窗口；减少门限数量
低级（每月+）先修复部署频率问题。在此节奏下无法开展有意义的分阶段发布
低部署频率是交付瓶颈，会导致罗杰斯门限验证无法进行——当你收集到信号时，市场窗口已经发生变化。