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discover-assumptions

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Original

English
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Translation

Chinese

Discover Assumptions and Experiments

挖掘假设与设计实验

Overview

概述

Surface the riskiest assumptions in an Opportunity Solution Tree and design the smallest tests that can prove or disprove them quickly.
挖掘机会解决方案树中风险最高的假设，并设计最小化实验以快速验证或推翻这些假设。

Position in Workflow

在工作流中的位置

Step 4 of product strategy workflow:
  1. /discover-outcomes
    - Define outcomes
  2. /discover-opportunities
    - Identify opportunities
  3. /ideate-solutions
    - Explore solution concepts
  4. /discover-assumptions
    - Validate with experiments (THIS)
产品策略工作流的第4步：
  1. /discover-outcomes
    - 定义成果
  2. /discover-opportunities
    - 识别机会
  3. /ideate-solutions
    - 探索解决方案概念
  4. /discover-assumptions
    - 通过实验验证（当前步骤）

Inputs (ask if missing, max 5)

输入信息（若缺失则询问，最多5项）

  • Target node(s): outcome, opportunity, or solution
  • Target users/market
  • Existing evidence (data, research, learnings)
  • Constraints (time, budget, ethics, legal)
  • Decision deadline
  • 目标节点：成果、机会或解决方案
  • 目标用户/市场
  • 现有证据（数据、研究、经验总结）
  • 约束条件（时间、预算、伦理、法律）
  • 决策截止日期

Assumption Types

假设类型

  • Desirability: Users want or value it
  • Usability: Users can use it successfully
  • Feasibility: We can build/deliver it
  • Viability: It supports the business model
  • Risk/Compliance/Ethics: It is safe and allowed
  • Strategic: It aligns with goals and positioning
  • 合意性：用户需要或重视该内容
  • 易用性：用户能够成功使用
  • 可行性：我们能够构建/交付
  • 商业可行性：符合商业模式
  • 风险/合规/伦理：安全且合规
  • 战略一致性：与目标和定位相符

Workflow

工作流

  1. List assumptions per node
    • Write assumptions as testable statements.
  2. Score risk
    • Impact (low/medium/high) x uncertainty (low/medium/high).
    • Note current evidence strength (none/weak/moderate/strong).
  3. Prioritize
    • Select top 3-5 riskiest assumptions.
  4. Design experiments
    • Propose 2+ tests per assumption, fastest/cheapest first.
    • Define hypothesis, method, sample, success metric, and decision threshold.
  5. Sequence tests
    • Start with tests that can invalidate assumptions quickly.
  1. 按节点列出假设
    • 将假设撰写为可验证的陈述。
  2. 风险评分
    • 影响程度（低/中/高）×不确定性（低/中/高）。
    • 标注当前证据强度（无/弱/中等/强）。
  3. 优先级排序
    • 选择风险最高的3-5个假设。
  4. 设计实验
    • 每个假设至少提出2种测试方案，优先选择最快/成本最低的。
    • 明确假设、方法、样本、成功指标和决策阈值。
  5. 排序测试顺序
    • 从能够快速推翻假设的测试开始。

Experiment Patterns (examples)

实验模式（示例）

  • Customer interviews, observation, diary studies
  • Survey with behavioral intent + follow-up validation
  • Smoke test or landing page
  • Fake-door or click-through test
  • Concierge or Wizard-of-Oz pilot
  • Prototype usability test
  • A/B test or pricing experiment
  • Limited rollout with manual operations
  • 用户访谈、观察、日记研究
  • 包含行为意向的调查+后续验证
  • 冒烟测试或着陆页测试
  • 假门测试或点击测试
  • 礼宾式或“绿野仙踪”试点
  • 原型可用性测试
  • A/B测试或定价实验
  • 手动操作的有限范围发布

Output Format

输出格式

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undefined

Assumption Discovery

Assumption Discovery

Context Summary

Context Summary

[1-3 sentences]
[1-3 sentences]

Assumptions (by node)

Assumptions (by node)

  • Node: [Outcome/Opportunity/Solution]
    • Assumption: ... (type: desirability)
    • Evidence: ... (strength: weak)
    • Risk: impact high x uncertainty high
  • Node: [Outcome/Opportunity/Solution]
    • Assumption: ... (type: desirability)
    • Evidence: ... (strength: weak)
    • Risk: impact high x uncertainty high

Top Risks

Top Risks

  1. Assumption: ...
    • Why risky: ...
  1. Assumption: ...
    • Why risky: ...

Experiments

Experiments

  1. Assumption: ...
    • Hypothesis: ...
    • Method: ...
    • Sample: ...
    • Success metric: ...
    • Decision threshold: ...
    • Time/cost: ...
  1. Assumption: ...
    • Hypothesis: ...
    • Method: ...
    • Sample: ...
    • Success metric: ...
    • Decision threshold: ...
    • Time/cost: ...

Sequenced Plan

Sequenced Plan

  1. ...
  2. ...
  1. ...
  2. ...

Open Questions

Open Questions

  • ...
  • ...

Next Step

Next Step

If assumptions are validated, proceed to product planning.
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If assumptions are validated, proceed to product planning.
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Quick Reference

快速参考

  • Turn beliefs into testable statements.
  • Prefer tests that can disprove the assumption fast.
  • Document decision thresholds before running tests.
  • 将想法转化为可验证的陈述。
  • 优先选择能够快速推翻假设的测试。
  • 在运行测试前记录决策阈值。

Common Mistakes

常见错误

  • Treating opinions as evidence
  • Testing solutions before validating the underlying assumption
  • Running expensive tests without cheap falsification attempts
  • Vague hypotheses or missing thresholds
  • 将观点当作证据
  • 在验证底层假设前就测试解决方案
  • 未尝试低成本的证伪方案就开展昂贵测试
  • 假设模糊或缺失决策阈值