shiliuzijue

"Starting from May 1928, the basic principles of guerrilla warfare with a simple nature adapted to the situation at that time had already emerged, which is the so-called 16-character formula: 'When the enemy advances, we retreat; when the enemy camps, we harass; when the enemy is tired, we attack; when the enemy retreats, we pursue.'... The basic principle remains that 16-character formula. The 16-character formula encompasses the basic principles of counter-'encirclement and suppression', including both the stages of strategic defense and strategic offense, and in defense, it also includes the two stages of strategic retreat and strategic counteroffensive." — Problems of Strategy in China's Revolutionary War (December 1936)

1. The 16-character formula is a precise action guide targeting four states of the opponent (advance/camp/tire/retreat), not a vague "flexible response", but has clear rhythm coding.
2. When the enemy advances, we retreat: Do not confront head-on when the opponent is fully attacking — shrink the core, protect the core customer base and key resources, avoid frontal attrition warfare. Retreat is not escape, but orderly preservation of strength.
3. When the enemy camps, we harass: After the opponent has established a foothold, their attention will shift — continuously harass their weak links with differentiated products and localized services, making it impossible for the opponent to settle down.
4. When the enemy is tired, we attack: When the opponent's management chain lengthens and response slows down — seize the window period to concentrate resources and take the initiative to attack, fighting a battle with certainty.
5. When the enemy retreats, we pursue: When the opponent contracts or adjusts their strategy — seize the opportunity to expand market share and quickly occupy the space abandoned by the opponent.
6. The four steps form a complete attack-defense cycle, with the core principle of "following the opponent's rhythm and finding the most favorable action for oneself in each state of the opponent" — not self-centered, but taking the opponent's state as the signal for action.

• Problem: The Kuomintang launched an 'encirclement and suppression' campaign against the Red Army with superior forces; a head-on confrontation would surely lead to defeat.
• Method Application: Mao Zedong initially planned to attack Tan Daoyuan, but since the enemy did not leave their favorable positions, he endured and withdrew twice (When the enemy advances, we retreat); it took 25 days to find a combat opportunity (When the enemy camps, we harass / When the enemy is tired, we attack); after identifying the vulnerable Zhang Huizan, he concentrated forces and eliminated the enemy in one battle.
• Conclusion: The determination of "would rather retreat and wait patiently for the right moment" contrasts sharply with the decisiveness of "concentrate absolute superiority once taking action". The 16-character formula is not to be implemented mechanically, but flexibly according to actual enemy situations.
• Result: The first four counter-'encirclement and suppression' campaigns all achieved victory using this method. The fifth counter-'encirclement and suppression' campaign ended in a disastrous defeat after abandoning this principle.

• Problem: The enemy besieged the base area from multiple directions; if defending against each route, forces would be scattered.
• Method Application: Use secondary forces to pin down several enemy routes (a variant of When the enemy advances, we retreat), and use the main force to attack the enemy's rear base, forcing the enemy to retreat for reinforcement (When the enemy is tired, we attack).
• Conclusion: The 16-character formula is not a rigid formula, but a flexible action logic adapted to actual situations.
• Result: It was repeatedly applied successfully in anti-Japanese base areas like Wutai Mountain, becoming a classic tactic for the weak to defeat the strong.

1. Opponent enters your market on a large scale: Industry giants or competing products strongly enter your core field, and users begin to waver. Users may say: "They are coming in full force, should we fight head-on?" "Should we start a price war?"
2. Opponent's attention diverges after establishing a foothold: Competing products have gained a firm foothold in the market but start expanding other business lines, and local team management becomes lax. Users may say: "The opponent hasn't been as aggressive lately" "Their service is declining."
3. Opponent shows signs of fatigue or management bottlenecks: After the competitor expands in scale, decision-making slows down, service quality drops, and team expansion leads to reduced efficiency. Users may say: "Their staff are becoming less effective" "Customers are starting to complain about them."
4. Opponent takes the initiative to contract or adjust strategy: Competing products cut certain product lines, withdraw from certain regions, or adjust strategic directions. Users may say: "The opponent has withdrawn from the XX market" "They are no longer focusing on this direction."

• vs Asymmetric Strategy: This skill = "what to do at this moment" (rhythm execution), the latter = "what paradigm to use for competition" (strategic definition)
• vs Strategy-Tactics Dialectics: This skill = "choose attack/defense rhythm based on opponent's status", the latter = "create micro-offenses within macro-defense"
• vs Concentrate Superior Forces: This skill = "judge the timing", the latter = "how to concentrate resources to attack when the timing is right"

• Determine which of the four states (advance/camp/tire/retreat) the opponent is in.
  • Advance: The opponent is increasing investment, expanding into new markets, launching new products, or conducting high-profile marketing.
  • Camp: The opponent has a firm foothold in the market but growth slows down, and attention begins to diverge.
  • Tire: The opponent's management chain lengthens, team expansion leads to reduced efficiency, and customer complaints increase.
  • Retreat: The opponent contracts their frontline, cuts product lines, withdraws from regions, or shifts strategy.
• Completion standard: Can explain the opponent's current status and basis for judgment in one sentence (e.g., "The opponent is in the 'camp' state because they haven't opened new stores in this city for 6 months after opening 3, and have started expanding into other regions").

• Choose actions based on the opponent's status:
  • Opponent in "advance" state → Shrink and defend core customer groups, avoid price wars, protect cash flow and core teams.
  • Opponent in "camp" state → Continuously harass their weak links with differentiated products/services, seize their attention on edge customer groups.
  • Opponent in "tire" state → Concentrate resources to take the initiative in the most promising niche market, fight a "quick battle" to expand share.
  • Opponent in "retreat" state → Seize the opportunity to expand rapidly and fill the market gaps left by the opponent.
• Stop point: If the opponent's status cannot be clearly judged (insufficient information), do not act rashly — first supplement intelligence, then match actions.

• The opponent's status will not remain unchanged; set warning signals to switch actions in a timely manner:
  • "Advance → Camp" signal: The opponent reduces marketing investment, slows down expansion speed.
  • "Camp → Tire" signal: The opponent's customer complaints increase, employee turnover rate rises, response speed slows down.
  • "Tire → Retreat" signal: The opponent closes stores/cuts product lines, withdraws from regional markets.
  • "Retreat → Advance" signal: The opponent increases investment again, replaces management, or adjusts strategy back.
• Completion standard: Each status transition has at least 2 observable early warning indicators, and monitoring frequency is specified.

1. When there is no clear opponent: Blue ocean markets or monopoly markets have no "opponent status", so the 16-character formula has no place to apply.
2. When you need to proactively define market rules: If you are an industry pioneer, you should not follow the opponent's rhythm, but let the opponent follow yours.
3. When in an absolute dominant position: If you have a clear lead, you don't need to "follow the opponent's rhythm", but should dominate the market with your own rhythm.

• Escapeism (ce16): Misinterpreting the "retreat" in "When the enemy advances, we retreat" as total abandonment — retreat is orderly contraction to protect the core, not a panicked rout. The "retreat" in the later stage of the fifth counter-'encirclement and suppression' campaign became escapeism.
• Adventurism/Quick Victory Theory (ce05): Hurrying to "attack" when the opponent just enters the "camp" state, upgrading the "harass" in "When the enemy camps, we harass" to a full-scale attack, resulting in counterattack due to insufficient preparation. The correct approach is to patiently wait for the opponent's "tire" signal before taking action.
• Dogmatism (ce01): Mechanically applying the 16-character formula without considering actual conditions. Mao Zedong said "the basic principle remains that 16-character formula", but the form of each application changes according to different conditions.

• The 16-character formula presupposes that the opponent's status can be clearly judged, but in actual business competition, the opponent may deliberately show weakness or release false signals. Business insight: It is necessary to cross-verify the opponent's real status from multiple dimensions, and not judge based on a single signal.

• Asymmetric Strategy (composes-with): Asymmetric Strategy defines the competition paradigm ("what kind of war to fight"), while the 16-character formula executes the competition rhythm ("retreat when the opponent advances"). First determine the competition paradigm, then use the 16-character formula to execute specific rhythms.
• Strategy-Tactics Dialectics (composes-with): The "retreat → harass → attack → pursue" cycle of the 16-character formula is the specific execution rhythm of "offense within defense" in Strategy-Tactics Dialectics.
• Initiative, Flexibility, Planning (composes-with): The four rhythm steps of the 16-character formula reflect the three elements of execution — "judging the opponent's status" requires planning, "choosing corresponding actions" requires flexibility, and "setting early warnings" requires initiative.