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Market Research

市场研究

Overview

概述

Market research answers the questions your gut cannot: How big is this really? Who's already here? What's coming? What do customers actually look like? This playbook gives you a repeatable system using mostly free tools. Run it before launching, and refresh quarterly.
市场研究可以解答你的直觉无法回答的问题：这个市场到底有多大？已有哪些玩家？未来趋势是什么？客户的真实画像是什么？本指南为你提供一套可重复使用的体系，主要借助免费工具完成。在启动业务前执行该调研，并每季度更新一次。

Step 1: Define Your Research Questions First

第一步：先明确你的研究问题

Never open a browser without knowing what you're looking for. Write 3-5 specific questions. Everything you find must map back to one. Examples:
  • How large is the addressable market for [X]?
  • Who are the top 5 competitors and what are their actual weaknesses?
  • What macro or industry trends will shape this space in the next 12-24 months?
  • What does a typical customer in this market look like demographically and psychographically?
  • What price points do existing solutions charge, and where are the gaps?
在打开浏览器前，一定要清楚自己要找什么。写下3-5个具体问题，你找到的所有信息都必须能对应其中一个问题。示例：
  • [X]的潜在市场规模有多大？
  • 头部5家竞品是谁，他们的真实短板是什么？
  • 未来12-24个月，哪些宏观或行业趋势会影响该领域？
  • 该市场的典型客户在人口统计学和心理特征上是什么样的？
  • 现有解决方案的定价区间是多少，存在哪些空白？

Step 2: Market Sizing (TAM → SAM → SOM)

第二步：市场规模测算（TAM → SAM → SOM）

You do not need exact numbers. Order-of-magnitude is enough to make decisions.
TAM (Total Addressable Market): Everyone on earth who theoretically has this problem or need. Often found in industry reports (Google "[industry] market size report").
SAM (Serviceable Addressable Market): The slice of TAM you could realistically reach given your language, geography, channel, and positioning. Apply realistic filters: "Of the global TAM, how many are in English-speaking markets? How many use the platform/channel I can reach?"
SOM (Serviceable Obtainable Market): What you can realistically capture in Year 1. Typically 1-5% of SAM for a new entrant.
When no report exists — estimate from first principles:
  1. Find a related population stat (e.g. "There are 60M freelancers in the US").
  2. Apply a conversion funnel: "20% use project management tools → 12M. Of those, 10% have the specific pain I'm solving → 1.2M."
  3. Multiply by realistic ARPU: "If each pays $15/month → $216M TAM."
  4. Sanity-check against competitor revenue if any are public.
Decision rule: If your realistic SOM < $500K annual revenue potential, the market is too small to sustain a solo business at a healthy margin. Consider a broader niche or higher price point.
你不需要精确数字，数量级足够支持决策即可。
TAM（总潜在市场）： 理论上存在该需求或问题的全球所有人群。通常可在行业报告中找到（搜索“[行业] market size report”）。
SAM（可触达潜在市场）： 考虑语言、地域、渠道和定位后，你实际能够触达的TAM细分群体。应用合理的筛选条件：“在全球TAM中，有多少人在英语市场？有多少人使用我能够触达的平台/渠道？”
SOM（可获取服务市场）： 你在第一年实际能够占领的市场份额。对于新进入者，通常为SAM的1-5%。
若无现成报告——从基础数据估算：
  1. 找到相关的人口统计数据（例如：“美国有6000万自由职业者”）。
  2. 应用转化漏斗：“20%使用项目管理工具 → 1200万。其中，10%存在我要解决的特定痛点 → 120万。”
  3. 乘以合理的ARPU（每用户平均收入）：“如果每人每月支付15美元 → 总TAM为2.16亿美元。”
  4. 若有公开的竞品收入数据，进行合理性校验。
决策规则： 若你的合理SOM年营收潜力低于50万美元，该市场规模过小，无法支撑个体创业者维持健康利润。考虑拓展细分领域或提高定价。

Step 3: Free Data Source Toolkit

第三步：免费数据源工具包

Market size & industry data:
  • Google "industry name market size" — even headline numbers from reports are useful
  • Statista (free snippets give key stats)
  • IBISWorld, Grand View Research — free summaries
  • SEC filings of public companies in the space (revenue, growth, strategy)
  • Bureau of Labor Statistics — workforce and industry employment data
Competitive & product intelligence:
  • Competitors' websites — pricing pages, feature lists, careers pages (hiring reveals strategy), blog topics (reveals what they think matters)
  • G2, Capterra, Trustpilot, App Store — read 20+ reviews minimum. Categorize complaints.
  • SimilarWeb (free tier) — traffic volume and source breakdown
  • Crunchbase (free tier) — funding history, investors, founding dates
  • LinkedIn company pages — headcount trends (growing = healthy signal)
Trend & signal intelligence:
  • Google Trends — search interest over time
  • Reddit — search within relevant subreddits for recurring themes
  • Product Hunt — what's gaining traction in adjacent spaces
  • Y Combinator batch announcements — what's getting funded signals what's coming
  • Twitter/X — real-time industry conversation
  • Industry newsletters — find 3-5 relevant ones and read for 2 weeks before deciding
市场规模与行业数据：
  • 搜索“行业名称 market size”——即使是报告中的标题数字也有参考价值
  • Statista（免费片段提供关键数据）
  • IBISWorld、Grand View Research（免费摘要）
  • 该领域上市公司的SEC filings（收入、增长、战略）
  • 劳工统计局——劳动力与行业就业数据
竞品与产品情报：
  • 竞品官网——定价页、功能列表、招聘页（招聘信息可揭示战略）、博客主题（揭示他们认为重要的内容）
  • G2、Capterra、Trustpilot、应用商店——至少阅读20条以上评价，对投诉进行分类。
  • SimilarWeb（免费版）——流量规模和来源细分
  • Crunchbase（免费版）——融资历史、投资者、成立日期
  • LinkedIn公司主页——员工数量趋势（增长=健康信号）
趋势与信号情报：
  • Google Trends——搜索热度随时间的变化
  • Reddit——在相关子版块中搜索重复出现的主题
  • Product Hunt——相邻领域中正在获得关注的产品
  • Y Combinator批次公告——获得融资的项目预示着未来趋势
  • Twitter/X——实时行业对话
  • 行业通讯——找到3-5个相关通讯，先阅读两周再做决策

Step 4: Competitor Landscape Mapping

第四步：竞品全景梳理

Map your top 5-7 competitors (or adjacent players if direct competitors are few). For each, build a profile:
NAME:           [Company name]
URL:            [link]
FOUNDED:        [year]
FUNDING/REV:    [what's publicly known]
TARGET:         [who they serve — be specific]
VALUE PROP:     [one sentence: why customers choose them]
PRICING:        [model + price points]
TOP FEATURES:   [3-5 things they do well]
STRENGTHS:      [from their marketing + positive reviews]
WEAKNESSES:     [from negative reviews and feature gaps]
TRAFFIC:        [SimilarWeb estimate]
After profiling all competitors, synthesize into three lists:
  1. Table stakes — things ALL competitors do. You must match these or customers won't consider you.
  2. Universal gaps — things ALL competitors do poorly or skip entirely. This is your opportunity.
  3. Underserved segments — customer types that no competitor targets well. This is your niche entry point.
梳理你的Top5-7竞品（若直接竞品较少，可选择相邻领域玩家）。为每个竞品建立档案：
公司名称:           [公司名]
官网:            [链接]
成立时间:        [年份]
融资/收入:    [公开可查的信息]
目标用户:         [具体服务人群]
价值主张:     [一句话：客户选择他们的原因]
定价:        [模式+价格区间]
核心功能:   [3-5个他们做得好的功能]
优势:      [来自营销内容+正面评价]
劣势:     [来自负面评价和功能空白]
流量:        [SimilarWeb估算数据]
完成所有竞品档案后，整理为三个列表：
  1. 基础门槛——所有竞品都具备的功能。你必须达到这些标准，否则客户不会考虑你。
  2. 普遍空白——所有竞品都做得不好或完全缺失的功能。这是你的机会。
  3. 未被服务的细分群体——没有竞品重点覆盖的客户类型。这是你的细分切入点。

Step 5: Trend Analysis

第五步：趋势分析

Identify 3-5 trends relevant to your market. For each, assess:
  1. What is the trend? (be specific, not "AI is big")
  2. Evidence: 2-3 concrete data points or examples.
  3. Maturity: Emerging (< 20% adoption) / Growing (20-50%) / Maturing (50%+) / Declining.
  4. Impact on your opportunity: Tailwind (helps you) / Headwind (hurts you) / Neutral.
  5. Action: What should you do because of this trend? (Build for it / Watch it / Ignore it / Avoid it)
识别3-5个与你市场相关的趋势。针对每个趋势，评估以下内容：
  1. 趋势是什么？（具体描述，不要用“AI很火”这类模糊表述）
  2. 证据： 2-3个具体数据点或案例。
  3. 成熟度： 新兴（<20%渗透率）/增长中（20-50%）/成熟（50%+）/衰退。
  4. 对你的机会的影响： 顺风（有利）/逆风（不利）/中性。
  5. 行动建议： 针对该趋势你应该怎么做？（布局/观望/忽略/规避）

Step 6: Customer Persona Construction

第六步：用户画像构建

Build 2-3 personas. These are not marketing fluff — they are decision-making tools. Every product, pricing, and messaging decision should be testable against "would Persona X care about this?"
PERSONA NAME:     [fictional but grounded in data]
ROLE & INDUSTRY:  [specific]
SENIORITY:        [junior / mid / senior / founder]
COMPANY SIZE:     [solo / 2-10 / 11-50 / 50+] (if B2B)
LOCATION:         [region or work style: remote/hybrid/office]
ANNUAL INCOME:    [range — relevant for pricing decisions]

DAILY REALITY:
  - What does their typical workday look like around [your problem area]?
  - What tools do they already use in this workflow?

PAIN POINTS:      [top 3, ranked by severity — pull from reviews and interviews]
GOALS:            [what they're trying to achieve professionally]
BUYING BEHAVIOR:  [how they discover tools, decision timeline, budget authority]
CHANNELS:         [where they spend time online — critical for marketing later]

QUOTE:            [a real or realistic quote capturing their mindset — pull from forum posts or interviews]
构建2-3个用户画像。这不是营销噱头——而是决策工具。所有产品、定价和 messaging 决策都应该能通过“用户X是否关心这个？”的测试。
画像名称:     [基于数据的虚构名称]
角色与行业:  [具体描述]
职级:        [初级/中级/高级/创始人]
公司规模:     [个体/2-10人/11-50人/50人以上]（若为B2B）
所在地:         [地区或工作模式：远程/混合/线下]
年收入:    [区间——对定价决策重要]

日常场景:
  - 在[你的解决方案针对的问题领域]，他们的典型工作日是什么样的？
  - 他们在该工作流程中已经使用哪些工具？

痛点:      [按严重程度排序的Top3——来自评价和访谈]
目标:            [他们职业上想要达成的目标]
购买行为:  [他们如何发现工具、决策周期、预算权限]
活跃渠道:         [他们在线上的活跃平台——对后续营销至关重要]

代表性语录:            [能体现他们心态的真实或仿真语录——来自论坛帖子或访谈]

Step 7: Compile and Act

第七步：整理并行动

Produce a single Market Research document containing:
  • Market size (TAM/SAM/SOM with sources)
  • Top competitor profiles + synthesis (table stakes, gaps, underserved segments)
  • 3-5 trends with impact assessment
  • 2-3 customer personas
  • Recommended next actions — numbered, specific, prioritized
Schedule a quarterly refresh. Markets move. What's true today may not be in 90 days.
生成一份包含以下内容的市场研究文档：
  • 市场规模（带来源的TAM/SAM/SOM数据）
  • 头部竞品档案+总结（基础门槛、空白、未被服务的细分群体）
  • 3-5个带影响评估的趋势
  • 2-3个用户画像
  • 建议下一步行动——编号、具体、分优先级
安排每季度更新一次。市场是动态的，今天正确的结论可能在90天后就不再适用。