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forecast-discipline

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Forecast Discipline Guide Skill

预测规范指南Skill

When to Use

使用场景

  • Running weekly/monthly forecast calls.
  • Coaching managers on commit/best case criteria.
  • Aligning go-to-market teams on inspection processes.
  • 开展每周/每月的预测会议。
  • 指导管理者掌握承诺/最佳案例的判定标准。
  • 协调面向市场（GTM）团队统一检查流程。

Framework

框架

  1. Forecast Tiers – define commit, best case, pipeline, upside with clear exit criteria.
  2. Grading Rubric – outline inspection questions and data required for each tier.
  3. Cadence – schedule prep steps, live inspections, and follow-up check-ins.
  4. Accountability – log actions, approvals, and exceptions tied to each commit change.
  5. Continuous Improvement – review accuracy vs actuals, adjust rubric/cadence quarterly.
  1. 预测层级——明确定义承诺型、最佳案例型、管线型、潜在增量型预测的退出标准。
  2. 分级评分细则——列出每个层级对应的检查问题和所需数据。
  3. 节奏安排——规划准备步骤、现场检查和后续跟进的时间安排。
  4. 问责机制——记录与每项承诺变更相关的行动、审批和例外情况。
  5. 持续改进——对比预测准确率与实际结果，每季度调整评分细则和节奏安排。

Templates

模板

  • Forecast call agenda + checklist.
  • Commit change request form.
  • Accuracy retro template with action items.
  • GTM Agents Inspection Worksheet – standardized questions (deal health, decision process, paper process, risk plan) @puerto/README.md#244-271.
  • KPI Guardrail Sheet – pipeline coverage, conversion %, slip rate with alert thresholds.
  • Escalation Memo Template – summary for Chief Strategy Officer when forecast misses guardrails.
  • 预测会议议程+检查清单。
  • 承诺变更申请表。
  • 含行动项的准确率回顾模板。
  • GTM Agents 检查工作表——标准化问题（交易健康度、决策流程、文档流程、风险预案）@puerto/README.md#244-271。
  • KPI 管控表——包含管线覆盖率、转化率、延误率及预警阈值。
  • 升级汇报备忘录模板——当预测未达管控标准时，提交给首席战略官的总结文档。

Tips

小贴士

  • Keep commit changes transparent and documented.
  • Incorporate MEDDIC/BANT prompts into inspection scripts.
  • Pair with CRM hygiene dashboards to ensure data supports forecast claims.
  • Mirror GTM Agents cadence: Monday management prep, Tuesday deal desk sync, Thursday exec forecast call.
  • Require written rationale for any commit movement >5% week over week.
  • If guardrail breached twice in a quarter, trigger RevOps remediation sprint (see lifecycle rip-cord procedures).
  • 保持承诺变更的透明度并做好记录。
  • 在检查脚本中融入MEDDIC/BANT提示语。
  • 搭配CRM数据健康仪表板，确保数据能支撑预测结论。
  • 与GTM Agents的节奏保持一致：周一管理层准备，周二交易团队同步，周四高管预测会议。
  • 当周环比承诺变动超过5%时，需提供书面理由。
  • 若一个季度内两次突破管控标准，触发RevOps整改冲刺（参见生命周期应急流程）。

GTM Agents Forecast Governance Overlay

GTM Agents 预测管控补充说明

  1. Call Structure
    • Start with KPI guardrail review (coverage, wins, slip rate) vs GTM Agents thresholds.
    • Run tiered inspection (commit → best case → upside) with standard worksheet.
    • Assign owners for each risk + resolution plan.
  2. Cadence & Artifacts
    • Weekly: manager inspections + Sales Director roll-up.
    • Bi-weekly: cross-functional sync with Marketing Director + Customer Success Manager for pipeline risks.
    • Monthly: accuracy retro + adjustments to rubric.
  3. Escalation
    • Trigger CSO briefing when coverage <3.5x or commit accuracy slips below 85%.
    • Provide summary memo using Escalation Template.
  1. 会议结构
    • 首先回顾KPI管控指标（覆盖率、赢单率、延误率）与GTM Agents的阈值对比情况。
    • 使用标准工作表按层级开展检查（承诺型→最佳案例型→潜在增量型）。
    • 为每项风险分配负责人及解决方案。
  2. 节奏与产出物
    • 每周：管理者检查+销售总监汇总。
    • 每两周：与营销总监+客户成功经理开展跨职能同步会议，讨论管线风险。
    • 每月：准确率回顾+调整评分细则。
  3. 升级汇报
    • 当覆盖率<3.5倍或承诺准确率低于85%时，触发向首席战略官的汇报。
    • 使用升级汇报模板提供总结备忘录。

KPI Guardrails (GTM Agents Reference)

KPI 管控标准（GTM Agents 参考）

  • Pipeline coverage ≥4x for new logo, ≥3x for expansion.
  • Commit accuracy ≥90% in-quarter; warn at 85%.
  • Slip rate ≤10% QoQ; immediate review if >15%.
  • Stage hygiene: 95% of commit deals must have next steps + mutual action plan logged.
  • 新客户管线覆盖率≥4倍，拓展客户管线覆盖率≥3倍。
  • 季度内承诺准确率≥90%；低于85%时发出预警。
  • 季度环比延误率≤10%；超过15%时立即开展复盘。
  • 阶段数据健康度：95%的承诺型交易必须记录下一步行动+双方行动计划。

Inspection Questions (Excerpt)

检查问题（节选）

  1. What changed since last call? (Deal, champion, procurement, competition)
  2. Do we have verifiable next steps and dates? Who owns them?
  3. What negative signals exist? (product gaps, budget freeze, legal hurdles)
  4. How will this impact coverage if it slips—what backfill exists?
Use these prompts in every inspection to match GTM Agents Sales Director rigor.
  1. 自上次会议以来有哪些变化？（交易情况、关键联系人、采购流程、竞争对手）
  2. 我们是否有可验证的下一步行动及时间节点？负责人是谁？
  3. 存在哪些负面信号？（产品缺口、预算冻结、法律障碍）
  4. 若该交易延误，会对覆盖率产生何种影响——有哪些备选方案？
在每次检查中使用这些问题，以匹配GTM Agents销售总监的严谨要求。