nse-multibagger

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NSE Multibagger

Use this skill to find and analyze potential 3-5 year multibagger candidates in Indian equities. The default universe is NSE 500 plus smaller midcap/smallcap candidates that pass liquidity, governance, and data-quality filters.

This is an educational research framework. Never promise multibagger returns.

使用此skill寻找并分析印度股市中潜在的3-5年multibagger候选股。默认选股范围是NSE 500成分股，加上通过流动性、治理和数据质量筛选的中小盘候选股。

这是一个教育性研究框架。绝不承诺multibagger回报。

Default Workflow

默认工作流程

Define universe: Start with NSE 500, then include smaller midcap/smallcap names only if liquidity and disclosure quality are acceptable.
Collect data: Price, market cap, volume, 3-5 year sales/profit growth, margins, ROE/ROCE, debt, cash flow, promoter holding/pledge, valuation, peers, news, and technical trend.
Apply hard filters: Remove names with serious governance issues, dangerous debt, poor liquidity, weak disclosures, or unsustainable peak-cycle earnings.
Score candidates: Rank growth, quality, valuation, technicals, and risk.
Classify with Peter Lynch lens: Fast grower, stalwart, turnaround, cyclical, asset play, or slow grower.
Deep dive strongest ideas: Explain why the stock can grow multifold, what must go right, and what can go wrong.
Output top 10 plus deep dives: Include avoid/watchlist names and thesis breakers.

定义选股范围：从NSE 500开始，仅当流动性和披露质量达标时，才纳入更小的中小盘股票。
收集数据：价格、市值、成交量、3-5年营收/利润增长、利润率、ROE/ROCE、债务、现金流、发起人持股/质押、估值、同行、新闻和技术趋势。
应用硬性筛选：剔除存在严重治理问题、高风险债务、流动性差、披露薄弱或盈利处于不可持续周期峰值的股票。
候选股评分：对增长、质量、估值、技术面和风险进行排名。
用Peter Lynch视角分类：快速增长型、稳健型、困境反转型、周期型、资产型或缓慢增长型。
深度分析最优标的：解释该股票为何能实现数倍增长、必须满足哪些条件以及可能出现哪些问题。
输出前10名及深度分析：包含应规避/观察名单以及推翻投资逻辑的因素。

Tools

工具

USE these tools in this order. Web search is not sufficient for a broad screen — these tools are required.

Groww MCP — symbol lookup, live quote, holdings, indicators, candles. Primary tool for price, volume, and chart data.
yfinance — historical OHLCV, multi-year price history for long-term charts and relative strength calculations.
Finance portals (Screener, Trendlyne, Tickertape) — multi-year financial ratios, peer comparison, promoter holdings, shareholding pattern. These are critical for the screening phase — use these before any web search.
NSE/BSE exchange filings — shareholding pattern, corporate actions, director dealings.
Company annual reports / investor presentations — for business model, growth runway, and segment details on deep-dive candidates.
Business news (Mint, ET, Bloomberg Quint) — recent developments on candidates.
Web search — only for breaking news or context when the above tools are unavailable.

按以下顺序使用这些工具。仅网页搜索不足以进行全面筛选——必须使用这些工具。

Groww MCP —— 代码查询、实时报价、持仓、指标、K线图。获取价格、成交量和图表数据的主要工具。
yfinance —— 历史OHLCV数据、多年价格历史，用于长期图表和相对强度计算。
金融门户（Screener、Trendlyne、Tickertape）—— 多年财务比率、同行对比、发起人持股、股权结构。这些是筛选阶段的关键工具——在进行任何网页搜索前先使用它们。
NSE/BSE交易所文件 —— 股权结构、公司行动、董事交易。
公司年报/投资者演示文稿 —— 用于深度分析候选股的商业模式、增长空间和细分领域细节。
商业新闻（Mint、ET、Bloomberg Quint）—— 候选股的最新动态。
网页搜索 —— 仅在上述工具无法获取信息时，用于突发新闻或背景信息。

Tool Setup

工具设置

If Groww MCP is not installed, set it up first:

npx @anthropic-ai/claude-code@latest config add --mcp-server groww-mcp

Or add via Claude Code settings → MCP Servers → Add. Restart Claude Code after installation.

如果未安装Groww MCP，请先进行设置：

npx @anthropic-ai/claude-code@latest config add --mcp-server groww-mcp

或通过Claude Code设置 → MCP服务器 → 添加。安装后重启Claude Code。

Fallback: When Groww MCP Is Unavailable

备选方案：当Groww MCP不可用时

If Groww MCP is not available or returns no data:

USE yfinance immediately. Import and call yfinance to get historical OHLCV, current price, and basic financials. Do not skip to web search.

For price and volume:

yfinance.Ticker(symbol).history(period="2y")

For current quote:
```
yfinance.Ticker(symbol).info
```

For financials:

yfinance.Ticker(symbol).financials

and

.balance_sheet

Only use web search after yfinance has been attempted and still returns insufficient data.

The AI must explicitly try yfinance before falling back to web search. Web search alone is not sufficient for a broad multibagger screen.

如果Groww MCP不可用或未返回数据：

立即使用yfinance。导入并调用yfinance获取历史OHLCV数据、当前价格和基本财务数据。不要直接跳转到网页搜索。

获取价格和成交量：

yfinance.Ticker(symbol).history(period="2y")

获取当前报价：
```
yfinance.Ticker(symbol).info
```

获取财务数据：

yfinance.Ticker(symbol).financials

和

.balance_sheet

仅在尝试yfinance后仍无法获取足够数据时，才使用网页搜索。

AI必须明确先尝试yfinance，再 fallback到网页搜索。仅靠网页搜索不足以进行全面的multibagger筛选。

Hard Rejection Filters

硬性剔除筛选

Reject or mark as Avoid if any of these are material:

Promoter pledge is high or rising without a credible explanation
Auditor resignation, qualified audit, serious regulatory action, or repeated related-party concerns
Debt/equity and interest coverage indicate stress
Operating cash flow is persistently far weaker than reported profit
Sales/profit growth is collapsing while valuation still assumes growth
Stock is cheap only because the business is structurally declining
Liquidity is too poor for realistic entry and exit
Cyclical company appears cheap only on peak earnings

如果存在以下任何重大问题，拒绝或标记为“应规避”：

发起人质押比例高或持续上升且无合理解释
审计师辞职、保留意见审计、严重监管行动或反复出现关联方问题
债务/权益比和利息覆盖率显示财务压力
经营现金流持续远弱于报告利润
营收/利润增长崩溃，但估值仍假设增长
股票便宜仅因为业务处于结构性衰退
流动性太差，无法实际进出
周期型公司仅在盈利峰值时显得便宜

Peter Lynch Lens

Peter Lynch视角

Classify each candidate:

Type	What To Look For	Multibagger Relevance
Fast Grower	High sales/profit growth, long runway, reinvestment opportunity	Best hunting ground if valuation is not excessive
Stalwart	Large high-quality company, steady growth	Lower multibagger odds, better compounding quality
Turnaround	Bad period improving due to balance-sheet/business repair	High upside, high execution risk
Cyclical	Earnings tied to commodity/capex/industry cycle	Buy near trough, avoid peak-earnings traps
Asset Play	Hidden land, investments, cash, brands, subsidiaries	Upside depends on value unlocking
Slow Grower	Low growth, dividend-heavy	Usually not a multibagger candidate

对每个候选股进行分类：

类型	关注要点	Multibagger相关性
快速增长型	高营收/利润增长、长期增长空间、再投资机会	如果估值不过高，是最佳标的池
稳健型	大型优质公司、稳定增长	Multibagger概率较低，复利质量更佳
困境反转型	因资产负债表/业务修复而从低谷复苏	上行空间大，执行风险高
周期型	盈利与大宗商品/资本支出/行业周期挂钩	在周期低谷买入，规避盈利峰值陷阱
资产型	隐藏的土地、投资、现金、品牌、子公司	上行空间取决于价值释放
缓慢增长型	低增长、高股息	通常不是multibagger候选股

Scoring Model

评分模型

Score 1-5 for each factor:

Growth Score: sales/profit CAGR, runway, market share, sector tailwind
Quality Score: ROE/ROCE, margins, cash conversion, debt, capital allocation
Valuation Score: P/E, PEG, P/B, EV/EBITDA, peer discount, historical range
Technical Score: long base, accumulation, relative strength, breakout, support
Risk Score: governance, liquidity, debt, cyclicality, valuation, thesis fragility

Higher Risk Score means higher risk. A strong candidate usually has:

Growth Score: 4-5
Quality Score: 4-5
Valuation Score: 3-5
Technical Score: 3-5
Risk Score: 1-3

对每个因素给出1-5分：

增长评分：营收/利润复合增长率、增长空间、市场份额、行业顺风
质量评分：ROE/ROCE、利润率、现金转化率、债务、资本配置
估值评分：市盈率、PEG、市净率、EV/EBITDA、同行折价、历史区间
技术评分：长期盘整底、吸筹、相对强度、突破、支撑位
风险评分：治理、流动性、债务、周期性、估值、投资逻辑脆弱性

风险评分越高意味着风险越高。优质候选股通常具有：

增长评分：4-5
质量评分：4-5
估值评分：3-5
技术评分：3-5
风险评分：1-3

Multibagger Thesis Checklist

Multibagger投资逻辑清单

For each deep dive, answer:

Is the business simple enough to understand?
Can sales and earnings compound for 3-5 years?
Is the market opportunity much larger than the current revenue base?
Does the company have a moat, niche, brand, cost edge, distribution edge, or execution edge?
Is management allocating capital sensibly?
Does profit convert into operating cash flow?
Is debt manageable even in a bad year?
Is valuation reasonable relative to growth?
What temporary issue or market neglect creates undervaluation?
What technical pattern supports accumulation or trend reversal?
What would prove the thesis wrong?

对每个深度分析标的，回答：

业务是否足够简单易懂？
营收和盈利能否在3-5年内复利增长？
市场机会是否远大于当前营收规模？
公司是否具备护城河、 niche、品牌、成本优势、渠道优势或执行优势？
管理层是否合理配置资本？
利润能否转化为经营现金流？
即使在行业不景气年份，债务是否可控？
估值相对于增长是否合理？
是什么临时问题或市场忽视导致估值被低估？
什么技术形态支持吸筹或趋势反转？
什么情况会推翻投资逻辑？

Technical Confirmation

技术面确认

Use technicals to time risk, not to justify weak fundamentals.

Look for:

Long consolidation base after earnings improvement
Price reclaiming 50/200 DMA
Higher highs and higher lows on weekly chart
Volume expansion on breakout days
Relative strength versus Nifty Midcap/Smallcap indices
Clear support and invalidation levels

Avoid technically strong stocks if valuation is euphoric and fundamentals cannot support the move.

用技术面把控风险，而非为薄弱基本面辩护。

关注：

盈利改善后的长期盘整底
价格收复50/200日均线
周线图上的更高高点和更高低点
突破日成交量放大
相对于Nifty Midcap/Smallcap指数的相对强度
明确的支撑位和失效位

如果估值过高且基本面无法支撑上涨，即使技术面强劲也应规避。

Worst-Case Scenario

最坏情况

Always include a worst-case section:

Earnings fail to grow or reverse
Margin pressure destroys expected operating leverage
Debt or working capital stress appears
Promoter/governance concern emerges
Valuation de-rates despite growth
Technical breakdown below long-term support
Expected 3-5 year upside becomes dead money or permanent capital loss

始终包含最坏情况部分：

盈利停止增长或出现反转
利润率压力摧毁预期的经营杠杆
出现债务或营运资金压力
发起人/治理问题浮现
即使盈利增长，估值仍下降
技术面跌破长期支撑位
预期3-5年上行空间变为无收益或永久资本损失

Position Risk Labels

仓位风险标签

Label	Meaning
Core	High quality, liquid, lower red flags, suitable for larger long-term allocation
Satellite	Good upside but higher volatility, valuation, or execution risk
Speculative	High upside but high uncertainty, low allocation only
Avoid	Risk/reward, governance, debt, liquidity, or value-trap risk is unacceptable

标签	含义
Core（核心）	高质量、流动性好、风险信号少，适合较大比例长期配置
Satellite（卫星）	上行空间大，但波动性、估值或执行风险较高
Speculative（投机）	上行空间大，但不确定性高，仅适合小比例配置
Avoid（规避）	风险/回报比、治理、债务、流动性或价值陷阱风险不可接受

Output Format

输出格式

markdown

undefined

markdown

undefined

NSE Multibagger Screen - [Date]

NSE Multibagger筛选 - [日期]

Screening Universe

选股范围

Universe: [NSE 500 + qualified small/midcaps, or user-provided list]
Data sources: [...]
Exclusions: [...]
Missing data: [...]

范围：[NSE 500 + 合格中小盘股，或用户提供的列表]
数据来源：[...]
剔除标的：[...]
缺失数据：[...]

Top 10 Candidates

前10名候选股

Rank	Stock	Market Cap	Lynch Type	Growth Score	Quality Score	Valuation Score	Technical Score	Risk Score	Verdict

排名	股票	市值	Lynch类型	增长评分	质量评分	估值评分	技术评分	风险评分	结论

Deep Dive: [Best Candidate]

深度分析：[最优候选股]

Business story:
Why it can grow multifold:
Peter Lynch classification:
Financial strength:
Valuation comfort:
Technical setup:
3-5 year bull/base/bear scenarios:
Worst-case scenario:
Thesis breakers:
Position risk label: [Core / Satellite / Speculative / Avoid]
Final view:

业务概况：
为何能实现数倍增长：
Peter Lynch分类：
财务实力：
估值合理性：
技术面形态：
3-5年牛市/盘整/熊市情景：
最坏情况：
投资逻辑推翻因素：
仓位风险标签：[Core / Satellite / Speculative / Avoid]
最终观点：

Avoid / Watchlist Names

规避/观察名单

[Stocks rejected or kept on watchlist and why]

Lynch-style one-liner: [simple one-line explanation without claiming to quote Peter Lynch]

undefined

[被剔除或列入观察名单的股票及原因]

Lynch风格一句话总结：[简洁的一句话解释，不要声称引用Peter Lynch]

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Guardrails

约束规则

Do not promise 2x, 5x, or 10x returns.
Do not claim Peter Lynch would buy, sell, or endorse any stock.
Use "Lynch-style" only as a public investing-principle shorthand.
State when screening is incomplete because full NSE financial data was unavailable.
Prefer "potential multibagger candidate" over "multibagger stock."

不得承诺2倍、5倍或10倍回报。
不得声称Peter Lynch会买入、卖出或认可任何股票。
仅将“Lynch-style”作为公开投资原则的简称使用。
当因无法获取完整NSE财务数据导致筛选不完整时，需说明。
优先使用“潜在multibagger候选股”而非“multibagger股票”。