diagnose

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Note: This skill is independent analysis and commentary, not a reproduction of any original text. It synthesizes frameworks from multiple books with modern startup practice and routes founders to the right tool for their situation.

注意： 本Skill为独立分析与评论，并非对任何原文的复制。它综合了多本书中的框架与现代初创企业实践，为创始人匹配适合其处境的工具。

Diagnose

诊断

"The dangerous moment is when you apply the right framework to the wrong problem."

"危险的时刻是你将正确的框架用在了错误的问题上。"

When to Use This Skill

何时使用本Skill

Do you know exactly what's broken?
|-- YES --> Do you know which framework to use?
|   |-- YES --> Go use that skill directly. You don't need this.
|   +-- NO  --> THIS SKILL. You know the problem, need the tool.
+-- NO  --> THIS SKILL. Start here.

This skill exists because frameworks are tools, not answers. A hammer doesn't help when the problem is a screw. The first job is diagnosis — figuring out what's actually broken before reaching for any specific framework.

你是否清楚知道哪里出了问题？
|-- 是 --> 你是否知道该使用哪个框架？
|   |-- 是 --> 直接使用该Skill即可，无需本工具。
|   +-- 否  --> 使用本SKILL。你知道问题所在，需要匹配工具。
+-- 否  --> 使用本SKILL。从此处开始。

本Skill的存在是因为框架是工具，而非答案。当问题出在螺丝上时，锤子毫无用处。首要任务是诊断——在使用任何特定框架之前，先弄清楚到底哪里出了问题。

The Five Failure Modes

五种失败模式

Every startup problem maps to one of five root causes. Most founders misdiagnose which one they have.

Failure Mode	What It Looks Like	Common Misdiagnosis
Product	People try it and stop using it	"We need better marketing"
Market	Can't find anyone who cares enough to pay	"We need to build more features"
Messaging	Good product, people don't understand what it does	"The product must be wrong"
Distribution	People would buy it but never hear about it	"We need a better website"
Pricing	People want it but won't pay what you charge	"We need more features to justify the price"

所有初创企业的问题都对应五种根本原因之一。大多数创始人会误判自己面临的问题类型。

失败模式	表现特征	常见误判
产品	用户尝试后就不再使用	"我们需要更好的营销"
市场	找不到愿意付费的目标用户	"我们需要开发更多功能"
messaging（信息传递）	产品不错，但用户不理解它的作用	"肯定是产品有问题"
渠道分发	用户愿意购买，但从未听说过你的产品	"我们需要更好的网站"
定价	用户想要产品，但不愿支付你设定的价格	"我们需要增加功能来支撑定价"

The Misdiagnosis Problem

误判问题

Founders almost always misdiagnose their problem by one layer. The pattern:

ACTUAL PROBLEM:        WHAT FOUNDERS THINK:        WHAT THEY DO:
Product problem    →   "Marketing isn't working"   →   Spend on ads (waste)
Market problem     →   "Need more features"        →   Build for months (waste)
Messaging problem  →   "Product must be wrong"     →   Pivot prematurely (waste)
Distribution       →   "Need better website"       →   Redesign 5 times (waste)
Pricing problem    →   "Need more value"            →   Add features nobody asked for (waste)

创始人几乎总是会将问题误判一层。常见模式如下：

实际问题：        创始人的判断：        他们的行动：
产品问题    →   "营销没效果"   →   投放广告（浪费资源）
市场问题     →   "需要更多功能"        →   耗时数月开发（浪费资源）
messaging问题  →   "肯定是产品有问题"     →   过早转型（浪费资源）
渠道分发问题       →   "需要更好的网站"       →   反复改版5次（浪费资源）
定价问题    →   "需要增加价值"            →   添加用户未要求的功能（浪费资源）

The Diagnostic

诊断流程

Answer these honestly. Not what you hope is true — what the evidence says.

请如实回答以下问题。基于实际证据，而非你希望的结果。

Step 1: Do people want this?

步骤1：用户是否需要这个产品？

Have at least 5 people given you real money (or signed a binding LOI)?
|-- YES --> Go to Step 2.
|-- NO  --> Have you talked to 10+ potential customers about their problem
|           (not your solution)?
|   |-- YES --> Did they describe the problem with emotion and specifics?
|   |   |-- YES --> You probably have a messaging, pricing, or distribution
|   |   |           problem. Go to Step 2.
|   |   +-- NO  --> You might have a MARKET problem. The problem you're
|   |               solving may not be painful enough to pay for.
|   |               → Use mom-test to validate the problem exists.
|   |               → Use four-steps Customer Discovery process.
|   +-- NO  --> STOP. You are guessing. Nothing else matters until you
|               talk to real people. → Use mom-test.

是否至少有5个人为你的产品支付了真实费用（或签署了具有约束力的意向书LOI）？
|-- 是 --> 进入步骤2。
|-- 否  --> 你是否与10位以上潜在用户交流过他们的问题
|           （而非你的解决方案）？
|   |-- 是 --> 他们是否带着情绪、具体地描述了该问题？
|   |   |-- 是 --> 你可能面临messaging、定价或渠道分发问题。进入步骤2。
|   |   +-- 否  --> 你可能面临**市场**问题。你解决的问题可能不足以让用户付费。
|   |               → 使用mom-test验证问题是否真实存在。
|   |               → 使用four-steps客户探索流程。
|   +-- 否  --> 立即停止。你只是在猜测。在与真实用户交流之前，其他一切都不重要。→ 使用mom-test。

Step 2: Can people understand what you do?

步骤2：用户能否理解你的产品？

Show your website/pitch to a stranger for 5 seconds. Can they tell you:
  1. What you offer?
  2. How it makes their life better?
  3. What they should do next?

All 3 clear?
|-- YES --> Go to Step 3.
|-- NO  --> You have a MESSAGING problem.
|           → Use storybrand to restructure your message.
|           → Use made-to-stick to make individual messages land.
|           → Use obviously-awesome if the confusion is about
|             what category you belong in.

向陌生人展示你的网站/推介内容5秒钟。他们能否说出：
  1. 你提供什么？
  2. 它如何改善他们的生活？
  3. 他们接下来该做什么？

以上三点都清晰明确？
|-- 是 --> 进入步骤3。
|-- 否  --> 你面临**messaging**问题。
|           → 使用storybrand重构你的信息传递逻辑。
|           → 使用made-to-stick优化单个信息的传达效果。
|           → 若用户对你的产品所属类别感到困惑，使用obviously-awesome。

Step 3: Are the right people finding you?

步骤3：目标用户能否找到你？

Are potential customers discovering your product?
|-- YES, enough volume → Go to Step 4.
|-- YES, but wrong people → You have a POSITIONING problem.
|   → Use obviously-awesome to redefine your target segment.
|   → Use crossing-the-chasm if you're reaching innovators
|     but need pragmatists.
|-- NO → You have a DISTRIBUTION problem.
|   → Use traction to systematically test channels.
|   → Use 100m-leads for tactical execution in chosen channels.

潜在用户是否能发现你的产品？
|-- 是，流量充足 → 进入步骤4。
|-- 是，但用户不对 → 你面临**定位**问题。
|   → 使用obviously-awesome重新定义目标用户群体。
|   → 若你已触达创新者但需要吸引实用主义者，使用crossing-the-chasm。
|-- 否 → 你面临**渠道分发**问题。
|   → 使用traction系统测试各类渠道。
|   → 在选定渠道中使用100m-leads执行具体战术。

Step 4: Are they buying?

步骤4：用户是否会购买？

People find you, understand you, but don't buy. Why?
|-- "Too expensive" → PRICING problem.
|   → Use monetizing-innovation to redesign price+product together.
|   → Use 100m-offers to repackage the offer.
|-- "Not sure it'll work for me" → TRUST problem.
|   → Use influence (social proof, authority).
|   → Use storybrand (guide authority + testimonials).
|-- "I'll think about it" (then ghost) → URGENCY problem.
|   → Use 100m-offers (scarcity, urgency, bonuses, guarantees).
|   → Use influence (scarcity, commitment/consistency).
|-- "Went with competitor" → POSITIONING problem.
|   → Use obviously-awesome to find your unique value.
|   → Use blue-ocean-strategy if the market is commoditized.
|-- Signing up but churning → PRODUCT problem.
|   → Use lean-startup to measure and iterate.
|   → Use mom-test to understand why they leave.

用户找到你、理解你的产品，但不购买。原因是什么？
|-- "太贵了" → **定价**问题。
|   → 使用monetizing-innovation重新设计定价与产品组合。
|   → 使用100m-offers重新包装产品方案。
|-- "不确定是否适合我" → **信任**问题。
|   → 使用influence（社交证明、权威背书）。
|   → 使用storybrand（引导式权威 + 客户证言）。
|-- "我考虑一下"（然后无下文） → **紧迫感**问题。
|   → 使用100m-offers（稀缺性、紧迫感、附加福利、担保）。
|   → 使用influence（稀缺性、承诺/一致性）。
|-- "选择了竞争对手" → **定位**问题。
|   → 使用obviously-awesome找到你的独特价值。
|   → 若市场已同质化，使用blue-ocean-strategy。
|-- 注册后流失 → **产品**问题。
|   → 使用lean-startup进行衡量与迭代。
|   → 使用mom-test了解用户流失原因。

Step 5: Is the sales process working?

步骤5：销售流程是否顺畅？

For B2B / high-touch sales:
|-- Meetings happen but deals stall → SALES PROCESS problem.
|   → Use spin-selling for the conversation structure.
|   → Use influence for persuasion mechanics.
|-- Can't get meetings → Back to Step 3 (distribution).
|-- Deals close but take too long → Use spin-selling
|   (you're probably skipping Implication questions).

针对B2B / 高接触销售场景：
|-- 会议召开但交易停滞 → **销售流程**问题。
|   → 使用spin-selling优化对话结构。
|   → 使用influence优化说服机制。
|-- 无法获得会议机会 → 返回步骤3（渠道分发）。
|-- 交易达成但耗时过长 → 使用spin-selling
|   （你可能跳过了暗示性问题）。

The One-Skill Rule

单一Skill规则

Every diagnosis should output: one primary skill, one secondary skill (optional), and one concrete next action the founder can do this week.

Do not stack 3-4 frameworks. Framework stacking creates the illusion of thoroughness while reducing usability. A founder drowning in problems doesn't need four life preservers thrown at once — they need one rope and clear instructions.

If two skills genuinely both apply, sequence them: "Do X first (skill A). Only after you have results, then apply skill B." Never in parallel.

The concrete next action must be something a solo founder can actually do — not "100 outreach attempts per day" but "send 10 DMs to people who posted about this problem on Reddit this week." Precision that sounds good but can't be executed is fake precision.

每次诊断应输出：一项核心Skill、一项可选的次要Skill，以及创始人本周可执行的一项具体下一步行动。

不要同时叠加3-4个框架。框架叠加看似全面，实则降低实用性。陷入困境的创始人不需要同时被扔来四个救生圈——他们需要一根绳子和清晰的指引。

若确实有两个Skill都适用，请按顺序执行：“先做X（Skill A）。取得成果后，再应用Skill B。”切勿并行执行。

具体下一步行动必须是 solo创始人可实际完成的——不是“每天进行100次 outreach”，而是“本周给Reddit上发布过相关问题的10个人发送私信”。听起来精准但无法执行的计划是虚假精准。

When No Framework Fits

无适用框架的情况

Sometimes the answer is: none of these frameworks apply to your situation right now.

Signs you should stop using frameworks and just go observe reality:

You've been through 3+ frameworks and nothing improved. The problem might not be strategic — it might be execution, team, timing, or market conditions no book anticipated.
Your situation is genuinely novel. Frameworks are built from patterns of past companies. If you're doing something with no precedent, the frameworks become educated guesses at best.
You're using frameworks to avoid the uncomfortable thing. Usually that's talking to customers, firing someone, admitting the idea doesn't work, or making a decision with incomplete information.
The frameworks are contradicting each other and neither side is clearly right. Some tensions are real worldview differences (customer-centric vs product-centric, niche vs broad). You pick one and commit. No rubric resolves that for you.

The meta-rule: Frameworks help you think more clearly. They don't think for you. If you scored a 9/10 on a rubric but your gut says something is off, trust the gut and investigate. The rubric caught the easy problems. The hard ones are yours.

有时答案是：目前这些框架都不适用于你的处境。

出现以下迹象时，请停止使用框架，直接去观察现实：

你已尝试过3个以上框架，但毫无改善。问题可能不是战略层面的——而是执行、团队、时机或任何书籍都未预料到的市场环境问题。
你的处境极具创新性。框架是基于过往企业的模式构建的。若你正在做无前例的事情，框架最多只是有根据的猜测。
你在利用框架逃避棘手的事情。通常是指与客户交流、解雇员工、承认想法不可行，或是在信息不全的情况下做决策。
框架之间相互矛盾，且没有明显正确的一方。有些矛盾是真实的世界观差异（以客户为中心vs以产品为中心、小众vs广泛）。你需要选择一方并坚持。没有标准能为你解决这种矛盾。

元规则： 框架帮助你更清晰地思考，但不会替你思考。若你在评估中得到9/10的分数，但直觉告诉你哪里不对，请相信直觉并展开调查。评估能发现简单问题，而复杂问题需要你自己解决。

Quick Reference: Which Skill for What

快速参考：不同处境对应哪些Skill

Your Situation	Start With	Then
"Nobody's buying"	This diagnostic (figure out WHY)	Route to the right skill
"I have an idea but haven't talked to anyone"	mom-test	four-steps
"People like it but won't pay"	monetizing-innovation	100m-offers
"Our website doesn't convert"	storybrand	made-to-stick
"We can't find customers"	traction	100m-leads
"Competitors are eating our lunch"	obviously-awesome	blue-ocean-strategy
"Sales calls go nowhere"	spin-selling	influence
"We have early users but can't grow past them"	crossing-the-chasm (only if 10+ paying customers)	traction
"Should we pivot?"	lean-startup	four-steps
"Everything feels broken"	This diagnostic	Then one skill at a time

你的处境	从这里开始	后续步骤
"没人购买产品"	本诊断工具（找出原因）	匹配对应Skill
"我有一个想法，但还未与任何人交流"	mom-test	four-steps
"用户喜欢产品但不愿付费"	monetizing-innovation	100m-offers
"我们的网站转化率低"	storybrand	made-to-stick
"我们找不到客户"	traction	100m-leads
"竞争对手抢占了我们的市场"	obviously-awesome	blue-ocean-strategy
"销售电话毫无进展"	spin-selling	influence
"我们有早期用户，但无法突破增长瓶颈"	crossing-the-chasm（仅适用于拥有10位以上付费用户的情况）	traction
"我们应该转型吗？"	lean-startup	four-steps
"一切都出问题了"	本诊断工具	然后一次使用一个Skill

Scope and Limitations

适用范围与局限性

What This Diagnostic Does

本诊断工具的作用

Routes you to the right framework faster than guessing
Catches the most common misdiagnosis patterns
Tells you when to stop using frameworks entirely

帮你更快匹配合适的框架，而非盲目猜测
识别最常见的误判模式
告诉你何时应完全停止使用框架

What It Doesn't Do

本诊断工具的局限

It doesn't replace judgment. The diagnostic narrows the options. You still decide.
It assumes the 14 available skills cover your problem. Some problems (hiring, fundraising, legal, operations) aren't covered here.
It can't diagnose problems you're not honest about. If you skip the hard questions or answer with what you wish were true, the routing breaks.
It oversimplifies by design. Real startups have 3 problems at once. This makes you pick one to fix first, which is usually correct but sometimes the problems are entangled and need to be solved together.

它无法替代判断。诊断工具只是缩小了选项范围，最终仍需你做决策。
它假设14项可用Skill能覆盖你的问题。有些问题（招聘、融资、法务、运营）不在本工具的覆盖范围内。
它无法诊断你不愿诚实面对的问题。若你跳过棘手问题或按照期望的结果回答，匹配逻辑会失效。
它刻意简化了问题。现实中的初创企业通常同时面临3个问题。本工具让你优先解决一个问题，这通常是正确的，但有时问题相互纠缠，需要同时解决。

The Honest Warning

真诚提醒

A diagnostic that always gives an answer is more dangerous than one that sometimes says "I don't know." If your situation doesn't fit any of the decision paths above, that's a signal — not a bug. Go talk to customers, advisors, or anyone who'll give you an honest read on what's happening. Then come back.

一个总能给出答案的诊断工具比有时说“我不知道”的工具更危险。若你的处境不符合上述任何决策路径，这是一个信号——而非缺陷。去和客户、顾问或任何能给你诚实反馈的人交流。然后再回来。