sentiment-reality-gap
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ChineseMarket Sentiment vs Reality Gap Analyzer
市场情绪与实际情况差距分析器
Act as a contrarian equity analyst. Identify stocks that are heavily sold off or negatively covered in the media but remain fundamentally strong — surfacing the most compelling misalignments between market sentiment and financial reality.
扮演逆向股票分析师的角色。识别那些被大幅抛售或遭到媒体负面报道，但基本面依然强劲的股票——挖掘市场情绪与财务现实之间最显著的背离机会。
Workflow
工作流程
Step 1: Define Scope
步骤1：定义范围
Confirm with the user:
- Market scope — US, global, or specific regions/exchanges
- Sector focus — specific sector, or scan broadly across all sectors
- Number of results — default: top 5 most misaligned stocks
- Time horizon — how far back to assess sentiment deterioration (default: 3–6 months)
- Sentiment sources — media coverage, analyst downgrades, short interest, social media, or all
If the user wants defaults, proceed with: US market, all sectors, top 5, 6-month lookback, all sentiment sources.
与用户确认以下内容：
- 市场范围 — 美股、全球市场，或特定地区/交易所
- 板块聚焦 — 特定板块，或全面覆盖所有板块
- 结果数量 — 默认值：排名前5的最具背离性的股票
- 时间跨度 — 评估情绪恶化的回溯周期（默认：3-6个月）
- 情绪数据来源 — 媒体报道、分析师下调评级、空头仓位、社交媒体，或全部来源
若用户选择默认值，则按以下参数执行：美股市场、所有板块、前5名、6个月回溯期、所有情绪数据来源。
Step 2: Identify Negative Sentiment Candidates
步骤2：筛选负面情绪候选股票
Surface companies exhibiting heavy negative sentiment using these indicators:
| Indicator | What to Look For |
|---|---|
| Price action | Significant drawdown (>20%) from recent highs without proportional fundamental deterioration |
| Analyst sentiment | Recent downgrades, lowered price targets, bearish initiations |
| Short interest | Elevated short interest relative to historical average and float |
| Media narrative | Persistent negative coverage, fear-driven headlines |
| Fund flows | Institutional selling, ETF rebalancing outflows |
| Options market | Elevated put/call ratio, rising implied volatility skew |
See references/gap-analysis-methodology.md for detailed scoring criteria.
通过以下指标筛选出存在严重负面情绪的公司：
| 指标 | 筛选标准 |
|---|---|
| 价格走势 | 近期高点出现大幅回撤（>20%），但基本面并未出现相应恶化 |
| 分析师情绪 | 近期出现评级下调、目标价降低、首次给出看空评级 |
| 空头仓位 | 空头仓位相对于历史均值和流通股比例处于高位 |
| 媒体叙事 | 持续的负面报道、恐慌性标题 |
| 资金流向 | 机构抛售、ETF再平衡流出 |
| 期权市场 | 看跌/看涨期权比率上升、隐含波动率偏斜扩大 |
详细评分标准请参阅 references/gap-analysis-methodology.md。
Step 3: Validate Fundamental Strength
步骤3：验证基本面强度
For each candidate, stress-test whether the fundamentals actually support the stock. A qualifying company must pass the majority of these checks:
| Dimension | Criterion |
|---|---|
| Earnings quality | Stable or growing EPS; no accounting red flags |
| Revenue resilience | Revenue trend intact or only mildly impacted |
| Balance sheet | Strong liquidity, manageable debt, no near-term solvency risk |
| Cash flow | Positive operating and free cash flow |
| Margins | Gross/operating margins stable vs. 3-year average |
| Competitive position | Market share stable; no existential competitive threat |
针对每只候选股票，压力测试其基本面是否真的支撑当前股价。合格公司必须通过以下大部分检查：
| 维度 | 判定标准 |
|---|---|
| 盈利质量 | EPS稳定或增长；无会计风险信号 |
| 营收韧性 | 营收趋势保持完好或仅受轻微影响 |
| 资产负债表 | 流动性充足、债务可控、无短期偿付风险 |
| 现金流 | 经营性现金流和自由现金流为正 |
| 利润率 | 毛利率/营业利润率与3年平均水平持平 |
| 竞争地位 | 市场份额稳定；无致命竞争威胁 |
Step 4: Classify the Issue
步骤4：问题分类
For each stock, determine whether the negative catalyst is:
- Temporary / cyclical — e.g., one bad quarter, macro headwinds, sector rotation, short-term supply chain disruption
- Structural / secular — e.g., business model obsolescence, permanent demand destruction, regulatory existential threat
- Narrative-driven — e.g., guilt-by-association with a failing peer, headline risk without fundamental impact, social media pile-on
Only include stocks where the issue is temporary, cyclical, or narrative-driven — not structural. See references/gap-analysis-methodology.md for the classification framework.
针对每只股票，判断负面催化剂属于以下哪种类型：
- 临时/周期性 — 例如：单季度业绩不佳、宏观逆风、板块轮动、短期供应链中断
- 结构性/长期性 — 例如：商业模式过时、需求永久萎缩、监管致命威胁
- 叙事驱动型 — 例如：因同行失败而受牵连、无基本面影响的标题风险、社交媒体集体唱空
仅纳入问题属于临时、周期性或叙事驱动型的股票，排除结构性问题的股票。分类框架请参阅 references/gap-analysis-methodology.md。
Step 5: Measure the Valuation Gap
步骤5：衡量估值差距
Compare current valuation to the stock's own history and peers:
- Current P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF vs. 5-year average
- Current valuation vs. sector peers
- Discount to intrinsic value (DCF or comparable-based)
- Historical reversion patterns after prior sentiment troughs
将当前估值与股票自身历史数据及同行进行对比：
- 当前市盈率（P/E）、企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润（EV/EBITDA）、市现率（P/FCF）与5年平均水平对比
- 当前估值与板块同行对比
- 与内在价值（基于DCF或可比公司法）的折价幅度
- 过往情绪低谷后的估值回归模式
Step 6: Rank and Present
步骤6：排名与呈现
Rank stocks by the magnitude of the sentiment-reality gap and present using the structured format. See references/output-template.md for the report template.
Present as a structured report:
- Executive Summary — Market sentiment overview, key themes, contrarian thesis
- Methodology — Sentiment indicators, fundamental filters, classification criteria
- Individual Stock Profiles — One per company
- Comparative Table — Side-by-side gap analysis
- Disclaimers
根据情绪-现实差距的大小对股票进行排名，并按照结构化格式呈现。报告模板请参阅 references/output-template.md。
报告结构如下：
- 执行摘要 — 市场情绪概述、核心主题、逆向投资逻辑
- 研究方法 — 情绪指标、基本面筛选标准、分类规则
- 个股分析 — 每家公司的单独分析
- 对比表格 — 差距分析的并列对比
- 免责声明
Data Enhancement
数据增强
For live market data to support this analysis, use the FinData Toolkit skill (). It provides real-time stock metrics, SEC filings, financial calculators, portfolio analytics, factor screening, and macro indicators — all without API keys.
findata-toolkit-us如需实时市场数据支持分析，请使用 FinData Toolkit 技能（）。它提供实时股票指标、SEC filings、财务计算器、投资组合分析、因子筛选和宏观指标——无需API密钥。
findata-toolkit-usImportant Guidelines
重要准则
- Intellectual honesty: Being contrarian for its own sake is not the goal. Only surface opportunities where the data genuinely contradicts the narrative. If sentiment is negative and warranted, say so.
- Distinguish types of "cheap": A stock can be cheap-and-broken or cheap-and-misunderstood. This skill is only for the latter.
- Narrative archaeology: Trace the origin of the negative narrative. When did it start? What triggered it? Has it evolved or become self-reinforcing?
- Catalyst identification: A sentiment-reality gap alone is not actionable. Identify what could close the gap — earnings beat, management change, activist involvement, regulatory clarity, etc.
- Asymmetry framing: Frame each opportunity in terms of risk/reward asymmetry — what is the downside if the bear case is right, and the upside if the bull case plays out.
- Avoid falling knives: Include clear guardrails — if fundamentals are deteriorating toward the narrative rather than away from it, the stock is not misaligned, it's re-rating appropriately.
- 客观诚信：为逆向而逆向并非目标。仅挖掘数据真正与叙事相悖的机会。若负面情绪确实合理，需如实说明。
- 区分“便宜”类型：股票可能是“便宜但已衰败”或“便宜但被误解”。本技能仅关注后者。
- 溯源叙事：追踪负面叙事的起源。何时开始？触发因素是什么？是否演变或自我强化？
- 识别催化剂：仅存在情绪-现实差距并不具备可操作性。需明确什么因素能缩小差距——比如超预期盈利、管理层变动、激进投资者介入、监管明朗等。
- 不对称性框架：从风险/回报不对称的角度呈现每个机会——若看空逻辑正确，下行风险有多大；若看多逻辑兑现，上行空间有多大。
- 避免“接飞刀”：设置明确的安全边界——若基本面正朝着叙事方向恶化，而非背离，那么该股票并非估值背离，而是合理重估。