sentiment-reality-gap

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Market Sentiment vs Reality Gap Analyzer

市场情绪与实际情况差距分析器

Act as a contrarian equity analyst. Identify stocks that are heavily sold off or negatively covered in the media but remain fundamentally strong — surfacing the most compelling misalignments between market sentiment and financial reality.

扮演逆向股票分析师的角色。识别那些被大幅抛售或遭到媒体负面报道，但基本面依然强劲的股票——挖掘市场情绪与财务现实之间最显著的背离机会。

Workflow

工作流程

Step 1: Define Scope

步骤1：定义范围

Confirm with the user:

Market scope — US, global, or specific regions/exchanges
Sector focus — specific sector, or scan broadly across all sectors
Number of results — default: top 5 most misaligned stocks
Time horizon — how far back to assess sentiment deterioration (default: 3–6 months)
Sentiment sources — media coverage, analyst downgrades, short interest, social media, or all

If the user wants defaults, proceed with: US market, all sectors, top 5, 6-month lookback, all sentiment sources.

与用户确认以下内容：

市场范围 — 美股、全球市场，或特定地区/交易所
板块聚焦 — 特定板块，或全面覆盖所有板块
结果数量 — 默认值：排名前5的最具背离性的股票
时间跨度 — 评估情绪恶化的回溯周期（默认：3-6个月）
情绪数据来源 — 媒体报道、分析师下调评级、空头仓位、社交媒体，或全部来源

若用户选择默认值，则按以下参数执行：美股市场、所有板块、前5名、6个月回溯期、所有情绪数据来源。

Step 2: Identify Negative Sentiment Candidates

步骤2：筛选负面情绪候选股票

Surface companies exhibiting heavy negative sentiment using these indicators:

Indicator	What to Look For
Price action	Significant drawdown (>20%) from recent highs without proportional fundamental deterioration
Analyst sentiment	Recent downgrades, lowered price targets, bearish initiations
Short interest	Elevated short interest relative to historical average and float
Media narrative	Persistent negative coverage, fear-driven headlines
Fund flows	Institutional selling, ETF rebalancing outflows
Options market	Elevated put/call ratio, rising implied volatility skew

See references/gap-analysis-methodology.md for detailed scoring criteria.

通过以下指标筛选出存在严重负面情绪的公司：

指标	筛选标准
价格走势	近期高点出现大幅回撤（>20%），但基本面并未出现相应恶化
分析师情绪	近期出现评级下调、目标价降低、首次给出看空评级
空头仓位	空头仓位相对于历史均值和流通股比例处于高位
媒体叙事	持续的负面报道、恐慌性标题
资金流向	机构抛售、ETF再平衡流出
期权市场	看跌/看涨期权比率上升、隐含波动率偏斜扩大

详细评分标准请参阅 references/gap-analysis-methodology.md。

Step 3: Validate Fundamental Strength

步骤3：验证基本面强度

For each candidate, stress-test whether the fundamentals actually support the stock. A qualifying company must pass the majority of these checks:

Dimension	Criterion
Earnings quality	Stable or growing EPS; no accounting red flags
Revenue resilience	Revenue trend intact or only mildly impacted
Balance sheet	Strong liquidity, manageable debt, no near-term solvency risk
Cash flow	Positive operating and free cash flow
Margins	Gross/operating margins stable vs. 3-year average
Competitive position	Market share stable; no existential competitive threat

针对每只候选股票，压力测试其基本面是否真的支撑当前股价。合格公司必须通过以下大部分检查：

维度	判定标准
盈利质量	EPS稳定或增长；无会计风险信号
营收韧性	营收趋势保持完好或仅受轻微影响
资产负债表	流动性充足、债务可控、无短期偿付风险
现金流	经营性现金流和自由现金流为正
利润率	毛利率/营业利润率与3年平均水平持平
竞争地位	市场份额稳定；无致命竞争威胁

Step 4: Classify the Issue

步骤4：问题分类

For each stock, determine whether the negative catalyst is:

Temporary / cyclical — e.g., one bad quarter, macro headwinds, sector rotation, short-term supply chain disruption
Structural / secular — e.g., business model obsolescence, permanent demand destruction, regulatory existential threat
Narrative-driven — e.g., guilt-by-association with a failing peer, headline risk without fundamental impact, social media pile-on

Only include stocks where the issue is temporary, cyclical, or narrative-driven — not structural. See references/gap-analysis-methodology.md for the classification framework.

针对每只股票，判断负面催化剂属于以下哪种类型：

临时/周期性 — 例如：单季度业绩不佳、宏观逆风、板块轮动、短期供应链中断
结构性/长期性 — 例如：商业模式过时、需求永久萎缩、监管致命威胁
叙事驱动型 — 例如：因同行失败而受牵连、无基本面影响的标题风险、社交媒体集体唱空

仅纳入问题属于临时、周期性或叙事驱动型的股票，排除结构性问题的股票。分类框架请参阅 references/gap-analysis-methodology.md。

Step 5: Measure the Valuation Gap

步骤5：衡量估值差距

Compare current valuation to the stock's own history and peers:

Current P/E, EV/EBITDA, P/FCF vs. 5-year average
Current valuation vs. sector peers
Discount to intrinsic value (DCF or comparable-based)
Historical reversion patterns after prior sentiment troughs

将当前估值与股票自身历史数据及同行进行对比：

当前市盈率（P/E）、企业价值/息税折旧摊销前利润（EV/EBITDA）、市现率（P/FCF）与5年平均水平对比
当前估值与板块同行对比
与内在价值（基于DCF或可比公司法）的折价幅度
过往情绪低谷后的估值回归模式

Step 6: Rank and Present

步骤6：排名与呈现

Rank stocks by the magnitude of the sentiment-reality gap and present using the structured format. See references/output-template.md for the report template.

Present as a structured report:

Executive Summary — Market sentiment overview, key themes, contrarian thesis
Methodology — Sentiment indicators, fundamental filters, classification criteria
Individual Stock Profiles — One per company
Comparative Table — Side-by-side gap analysis
Disclaimers

根据情绪-现实差距的大小对股票进行排名，并按照结构化格式呈现。报告模板请参阅 references/output-template.md。

报告结构如下：

执行摘要 — 市场情绪概述、核心主题、逆向投资逻辑
研究方法 — 情绪指标、基本面筛选标准、分类规则
个股分析 — 每家公司的单独分析
对比表格 — 差距分析的并列对比
免责声明

Data Enhancement

数据增强

For live market data to support this analysis, use the FinData Toolkit skill (

findata-toolkit-us

). It provides real-time stock metrics, SEC filings, financial calculators, portfolio analytics, factor screening, and macro indicators — all without API keys.

如需实时市场数据支持分析，请使用 FinData Toolkit 技能（

findata-toolkit-us

）。它提供实时股票指标、SEC filings、财务计算器、投资组合分析、因子筛选和宏观指标——无需API密钥。

Important Guidelines

重要准则

Intellectual honesty: Being contrarian for its own sake is not the goal. Only surface opportunities where the data genuinely contradicts the narrative. If sentiment is negative and warranted, say so.
Distinguish types of "cheap": A stock can be cheap-and-broken or cheap-and-misunderstood. This skill is only for the latter.
Narrative archaeology: Trace the origin of the negative narrative. When did it start? What triggered it? Has it evolved or become self-reinforcing?
Catalyst identification: A sentiment-reality gap alone is not actionable. Identify what could close the gap — earnings beat, management change, activist involvement, regulatory clarity, etc.
Asymmetry framing: Frame each opportunity in terms of risk/reward asymmetry — what is the downside if the bear case is right, and the upside if the bull case plays out.
Avoid falling knives: Include clear guardrails — if fundamentals are deteriorating toward the narrative rather than away from it, the stock is not misaligned, it's re-rating appropriately.

客观诚信：为逆向而逆向并非目标。仅挖掘数据真正与叙事相悖的机会。若负面情绪确实合理，需如实说明。
区分“便宜”类型：股票可能是“便宜但已衰败”或“便宜但被误解”。本技能仅关注后者。
溯源叙事：追踪负面叙事的起源。何时开始？触发因素是什么？是否演变或自我强化？
识别催化剂：仅存在情绪-现实差距并不具备可操作性。需明确什么因素能缩小差距——比如超预期盈利、管理层变动、激进投资者介入、监管明朗等。
不对称性框架：从风险/回报不对称的角度呈现每个机会——若看空逻辑正确，下行风险有多大；若看多逻辑兑现，上行空间有多大。
避免“接飞刀”：设置明确的安全边界——若基本面正朝着叙事方向恶化，而非背离，那么该股票并非估值背离，而是合理重估。