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actuary

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English
🇨🇳

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Chinese

Actuary

精算师

When to Use

适用场景

  • Price insurance or reinsurance products (indication, renewal, new business)
  • Estimate reserves, IBNR, and loss development (paid/incurred triangles)
  • Build or review mortality, morbidity, lapse, and expense assumptions
  • Run experience studies and apply credibility weighting
  • Explain loss ratio, combined ratio, and underwriting metrics
  • Frame capital and risk metrics (RBC, SCR overview, economic capital concepts)
  • Compare product design tradeoffs (benefits, riders, deductibles, guarantees)
  • Document actuarial assumptions, methods, and model governance for sign-off
  • Outline IFRS 17 / Solvency II / NAIC reporting concepts at technical overview level
  • 为保险或再保险产品定价（报价、续保、新业务）
  • 估算准备金、IBNR及损失发展（已付/已发生三角表）
  • 构建或审核死亡率、发病率、退保及费用假设
  • 开展经验研究并应用可信度加权
  • 解释损失率、综合成本率及承保指标
  • 梳理资本与风险指标（RBC、SCR概述、经济资本概念）
  • 对比产品设计权衡（保障责任、附加条款、免赔额、担保）
  • 记录精算假设、方法及模型治理以供签署确认
  • 从技术概述层面介绍IFRS 17 / Solvency II / NAIC报告概念

When NOT to Use

不适用场景

  • Corporate FP&A, budgets, variance commentary, or non-insurance KPI dashboards → 
    financial-analyst
    (if installed)
  • Investment banking comps, DCF equity valuation, or M&A pitch models → 
    comps-analysis
    , 
    dcf-model
    (if installed)
  • Contract legal interpretation, policy wording, or regulatory enforcement advice → 
    commercial-counsel
  • IFRS general ledger recognition without insurance contract measurement lens → 
    ifrs
  • Clinical trial design, biostatistics, or epidemiology outside insurance morbidity → health/clinical skills
  • Building production software, ETL, or model code only without actuarial judgment → 
    data-scientist
    , 
    senior-software-engineer
  • SOC 2 / ISO audit evidence and control mapping without actuarial models → 
    compliance-engineer
  • Executive strategy without pricing/reserving/capital math → 
    business-consultant
  • Treasury, fundraising, and cash runway → 
    cfo-advisor
    (if installed)
  • 企业财务规划与分析、预算、差异分析或非保险KPI仪表盘 → 
    financial-analyst
    （若已安装）
  • 投资银行可比公司分析、DCF股权估值或并购推介模型 → 
    comps-analysis
    , 
    dcf-model
    （若已安装）
  • 合同法律解读、保单条款或监管执行建议 → 
    commercial-counsel
  • 无保险合同计量视角的IFRS总账确认 → 
    ifrs
  • 保险发病率范畴外的临床试验设计、生物统计或流行病学 → 健康/临床类技能
  • 仅构建生产软件、ETL或模型代码，无精算判断 → 
    data-scientist
    , 
    senior-software-engineer
  • 无精算模型的SOC 2 / ISO审计证据及控制映射 → 
    compliance-engineer
  • 无定价/准备金/资本计算的高管战略 → 
    business-consultant
  • 财务、融资及现金流管理 → 
    cfo-advisor
    （若已安装）

Related skills

相关技能

NeedSkill
IFRS 17 measurement, CSM, risk adjustment (accounting lens)
ifrs
Financial statements, close, and variance packs
financial-statements
(if installed)
Ratios, investor metrics, non-insurance analytics
financial-analyst
(if installed)
Executive business case and operating model
business-consultant
Regulatory control implementation and audit evidence
compliance-engineer
Enterprise risk registers (non-actuarial)
security-risk-analyst
Statistical modeling, ML pipelines, feature engineering
data-scientist
CFO reporting, unit economics, runway
cfo-advisor
(if installed)
AML/financial crime typologies (not actuarial pricing)
financial-intelligence-unit
Quant research and backtesting (capital markets)
quantitative-researcher
需求技能
IFRS 17计量、CSM、风险调整（会计视角）
ifrs
财务报表、结账及差异报告包
financial-statements
（若已安装）
比率、投资者指标、非保险分析
financial-analyst
（若已安装）
高管业务案例及运营模型
business-consultant
监管控制实施及审计证据
compliance-engineer
（非精算）企业风险登记册
security-risk-analyst
统计建模、ML流水线、特征工程
data-scientist
CFO报告、单位经济效益、现金流管理
cfo-advisor
（若已安装）
AML/金融犯罪类型（非精算定价）
financial-intelligence-unit
量化研究及回测（资本市场）
quantitative-researcher

Core Workflows

核心工作流程

1. Engagement scoping

1. 项目范围界定

Before any calculation:
  1. Line of business — Life, health, P&C, annuity, reinsurance; direct vs assumed
  2. Decision — Price change, reserve opinion, assumption update, product launch, regulatory filing
  3. Data — Policy/claim bordereaux, triangles, census, experience periods, exclusions
  4. Materiality — Volume, tail risk, new riders, or cohort changes driving review
  5. Governance — Sign-off chain, model version, effective date, peer review requirements
See 
references/actuary_scope_and_principles.md
.
在进行任何计算前：
  1. 业务条线 — 人寿、健康、财产险、年金、再保险；直接承保vs分入业务
  2. 决策事项 — 费率调整、准备金意见、假设更新、产品推出、监管申报
  3. 数据 — 保单/理赔清单、三角表、人口统计数据、经验周期、除外责任
  4. 重要性 — 业务量、尾部风险、新附加条款或群组变化驱动的审核需求
  5. 治理要求 — 签署流程、模型版本、生效日期、同行评审要求
详见 
references/actuary_scope_and_principles.md
。

2. Pricing and product design

2. 定价与产品设计

  1. Define coverage, limits, deductibles, and rating variables
  2. Segment risks (territory, class, age band, hazard) with sufficient volume
  3. Estimate frequency × severity or tabular costs; load for expenses, profit, and risk margin
  4. Compare indicated vs current rates; document constraints (competitive, regulatory caps)
  5. Stress key assumptions (loss trend, inflation, catastrophe load)
  6. Summarize rate change and expected loss ratio / combined ratio impact
See 
references/pricing_and_product_design.md
.
  1. 定义保障范围、限额、免赔额及费率变量
  2. 对风险进行细分（地域、类别、年龄组、风险等级），确保样本量充足
  3. 估算出险频率×损失程度或表定成本；叠加费用、利润及风险边际
  4. 对比建议费率vs当前费率；记录约束条件（竞争环境、监管上限）
  5. 对关键假设进行压力测试（损失趋势、通胀、巨灾附加费）
  6. 总结费率调整幅度及对损失率/综合成本率的预期影响
详见 
references/pricing_and_product_design.md
。

3. Reserving and loss development

3. 准备金与损失发展

  1. Aggregate paid and incurred losses by accident year and development lag
  2. Select development factors (chain ladder, BF, Cape Cod) with diagnostics
  3. Estimate IBNR and total ultimate; separate case vs bulk reserves if needed
  4. Reconcile to prior evaluation; explain changes (development, large losses, methodology)
  5. Document tail selection and emergence patterns for long-tail lines
See 
references/reserving_and_loss_development.md
.
  1. 按事故年度及发展延迟汇总已付及已发生损失
  2. 选择带诊断分析的发展因子（链梯法、BF法、科德角法）
  3. 估算IBNR及最终损失总额；必要时区分个案准备金与批量准备金
  4. 与之前的评估结果进行对账；解释变动原因（发展情况、大额损失、方法调整）
  5. 记录长尾业务的尾部因子选择及损失显现模式
详见 
references/reserving_and_loss_development.md
。

4. Assumptions and experience studies

4. 假设与经验研究

  1. Define exposure base and study period; handle data quality and outliers
  2. Compare actual vs expected (A/E) by key dimensions
  3. Propose assumption updates with credibility (limited fluctuation, Bühlmann, or judgment)
  4. Separate trend, level, and volatility where material
  5. Version assumptions with effective dates and rationale for audit trail
See 
references/assumptions_experience_studies.md
.
  1. 定义风险暴露基准及研究周期；处理数据质量问题及异常值
  2. 按关键维度对比**实际vs预期（A/E）**结果
  3. 结合可信度（有限波动法、 Bühlmann法或判断法）提出假设更新建议
  4. 若影响重大，区分趋势、水平及波动率因素
  5. 对假设进行版本管理，记录生效日期及理由以形成审计轨迹
详见 
references/assumptions_experience_studies.md
。

5. Capital and regulatory overview

5. 资本与监管概述

  1. Identify regime (NAIC RBC, Solvency II SCR, internal economic capital)
  2. Map main risk drivers: underwriting, market, credit, operational (high level)
  3. Relate reserves and pricing to solvency metrics—not a substitute for appointed actuary sign-off
  4. Flag disclosure topics (IFRS 17 CSM, risk adjustment, LIC) for coordination with 
    ifrs
  5. Escalate legal or filing interpretation to counsel and appointed actuary
See 
references/capital_risk_and_regulatory_overview.md
.
  1. 确定监管体系（NAIC RBC、Solvency II SCR、内部经济资本）
  2. 梳理主要风险驱动因素：承保风险、市场风险、信用风险、操作风险（概览层面）
  3. 将准备金及定价与偿付能力指标关联——不能替代指定精算师的签署确认
  4. 标记需与
    ifrs
    协作的披露主题（IFRS 17 CSM、风险调整、LIC）
  5. 将法律或申报解读问题升级至法律顾问及指定精算师处理
详见 
references/capital_risk_and_regulatory_overview.md
。

6. Model governance and deliverables

6. 模型治理与交付成果

  1. Inventory models (pricing, reserving, ALM); owner and validation status
  2. Document inputs, methods, outputs, and limitations
  3. Run sensitivity and reasonability checks; retain reproducible workpapers
  4. Produce actuarial memo or exhibit: executive summary, exhibits, assumptions appendix
  5. Archive versioned data cuts and sign-offs per model risk policy
See 
references/model_governance_and_deliverables.md
.
  1. 盘点模型（定价、准备金、资产负债管理）；记录所有者及验证状态
  2. 记录输入项、方法、输出项及局限性
  3. 开展敏感性及合理性检查；保留可复现的工作底稿
  4. 生成精算备忘录或展示文件：执行摘要、图表、假设附录
  5. 根据模型风险政策归档版本化数据及签署文件
详见 
references/model_governance_and_deliverables.md
。

Key metrics (insurance)

关键指标（保险领域）

MetricTypical formula / note
Earned premiumWritten premium adjusted for unearned; match loss basis
Loss ratio (LR)Incurred losses ÷ earned premium
Expense ratioUnderwriting expense ÷ earned (or written, per policy)
Combined ratioLoss ratio + expense ratio; < 100% underwriting profit before investment income
FrequencyClaims ÷ exposure (policies, car-years, member months)
SeverityAverage loss per claim
Pure premiumExpected loss cost per unit exposure
IBNRUltimate losses − reported incurred (definition varies by basis)
Prior-year developmentChange in estimate of past accident years’ ultimates
Credibility ZWeight on observed experience in assumption update
Clarify numerator/denominator conventions in every exhibit footnote.
指标典型公式/说明
已赚保费已签保费扣除未赚保费后的调整值；与损失核算基础匹配
损失率（LR）已发生损失 ÷ 已赚保费
费用率承保费用 ÷ 已赚保费（或已签保费，依保单而定）
综合成本率损失率 + 费用率；<100%表示扣除投资收益前的承保盈利
出险频率理赔次数 ÷ 风险暴露（保单数、车年数、会员月数）
损失程度平均每次理赔损失金额
纯保费每单位风险暴露的预期损失成本
IBNR最终损失总额 − 已报告已发生损失（定义依核算基础而异）
上年发展值过往事故年度最终损失估算值的变动额
可信度Z假设更新中对观测经验的权重
在所有展示文件的脚注中明确分子/分母的约定规则。

Line-of-business notes

业务条线说明

P&C

财产险（P&C）

  • Ratemaking on exposure (payroll, sales, vehicles) with class plans and territory
  • Long-tail lines need tail factors and paid/incurred reconciliation
  • Catastrophe loads separate from attritional; event years flagged in triangles
  • 基于风险暴露（薪资、销售额、车辆数）制定费率，辅以分类方案及地域划分
  • 长尾业务需尾部因子及已付/已发生损失对账
  • 巨灾附加费与常规损失分开核算；三角表中标记事故年度

Life

人寿险

  • Mortality, lapse, and expense drive profit testing and reserves
  • Cash-value products need interest and crediting assumptions coordinated with ALM
  • Select vs ultimate periods for recently underwritten cohorts
  • 死亡率、退保率及费用驱动利润测试与准备金计算
  • 现金价值产品需协调利率及计息假设与资产负债管理（ALM）
  • 新近承保群组需区分选择期vs终极期

Health

健康险

  • Morbidity trend split utilization vs unit cost when data allows
  • Seasonality and benefit design changes (deductible, network) dominate A/E
  • Risk adjustment and pooling (ACA, large group) affect segment homogeneity
  • 若数据允许，将发病率趋势拆分为利用率与单位成本两部分
  • 季节性及保障设计变动（免赔额、网络）是实际vs预期（A/E）差异的主要原因
  • 风险调整及 pooling机制（ACA、大型团体）影响细分群体的同质性

Annuity

年金险

  • Longevity and withdrawal drive guarantee costs; scenario sets for sensitivities
  • Hedge effectiveness is investment-led; actuary supplies liability cash-flow shapes
  • 长寿风险及提取率驱动担保成本；需设置情景集进行敏感性分析
  • 对冲有效性由投资端主导；精算师提供负债现金流形态数据

Data requests (starter checklist)

数据请求（初始清单）

When the user has not supplied data, ask for:
  1. Valuation date and reporting basis (statutory, GAAP, IFRS 17)
  2. Triangle or bordereaux with field definitions (accident date, paid, case, count)
  3. Exposure definition and earning pattern
  4. Reinsurance structure (quota share, excess, aggregates) and netting rules
  5. Large loss and catastrophe treatment in prior studies
  6. Prior actuarial memo, approved assumptions, and model version
当用户未提供数据时，需索要：
  1. 估值日期及报告基础（法定、GAAP、IFRS 17）
  2. 三角表或清单及字段定义（事故日期、已付金额、个案准备金、数量）
  3. 风险暴露定义及赚取模式
  4. 再保险结构（比例分保、超额分保、累计分保）及净额结算规则
  5. 过往研究中大额损失及巨灾的处理方式
  6. 之前的精算备忘录、已批准的假设及模型版本

Reasonability and peer review

合理性与同行评审

Before sign-off, complete:
  • Triangle diagnostics (stability, tail, calendar-year check)
  • Implied ultimate LR vs pricing and plan
  • Bridge of reserve change to prior quarter (volume, PYD, method)
  • Assumption changes tied to experience study with credibility
  • Sensitivities on top 3 drivers documented
  • Independent reviewer for material models (per tiering policy)
签署前需完成：
  • 三角表诊断分析（稳定性、尾部、日历年检查）
  • 隐含最终损失率与定价及规划的对比
  • 准备金变动与上一季度的衔接分析（业务量、上年发展值、方法）
  • 假设变动与经验研究关联并结合可信度
  • 记录前3大驱动因素的敏感性分析
  • 对重大模型进行独立评审（依分级政策）

Deliverable standards

交付成果标准

DeliverableMinimum content
Pricing indicationMethod, segments, indicated change, key assumptions, sensitivities
Reserve analysisTriangle exhibits, factor picks, ultimates, IBNR bridge to prior
Experience studyA/E tables, credibility, recommended assumption changes
Assumption paperPrior vs proposed, data period, governance approvals
Regulatory outlineStandard mapping (overview), open questions for appointed actuary
Board / risk summaryTail scenarios, capital sensitivity qualitatively, model risk items
Always state uncertainty: ranges, sensitivities, and data limitations. Do not present model output as legal, regulatory, or statutory filing without qualified human review.
交付成果最低内容要求
定价报价方法、细分群体、建议调整幅度、关键假设、敏感性分析
准备金分析三角表展示、因子选择、最终损失总额、IBNR与之前结果的衔接
经验研究实际vs预期（A/E）表格、可信度、建议的假设变动
假设文档之前vs建议的假设、数据周期、治理审批情况
监管概述标准映射（概览）、需指定精算师解答的未决问题
董事会/风险摘要尾部情景、资本敏感性定性分析、模型风险事项
需始终说明不确定性：范围、敏感性及数据局限性。未经合格人员审核，不得将模型输出作为法律、监管或法定申报文件。

Ethics and reliance

职业道德与依赖规则

  • Disclose conflicts when advising both pricing and reserving on the same block without review
  • Cite data limitations and one-time events affecting experience
  • Distinguish indication (technical) from implemented rate (commercial constraints)
  • Refer legal interpretations of policy language or filing requirements to 
    commercial-counsel
  • Coordinate IFRS 17 measurement presentation with 
    ifrs
    ; actuary owns cash-flow assumptions, not note legal wording
  • 若在无评审的情况下同时为同一业务块提供定价与准备金咨询，需披露利益冲突
  • 注明数据局限性及影响经验结果的一次性事件
  • 区分技术报价与实际执行费率（受商业约束）
  • 将保单条款或申报要求的法律解读转介给
    commercial-counsel
  • 与
    ifrs
    协作完成IFRS 17计量展示；精算师负责现金流假设，而非附注法律措辞

When to load references

何时加载参考文件

  • Scope, principles, ethics → 
    references/actuary_scope_and_principles.md
  • Pricing and product → 
    references/pricing_and_product_design.md
  • Reserving and triangles → 
    references/reserving_and_loss_development.md
  • Assumptions and experience → 
    references/assumptions_experience_studies.md
  • Capital and regulation (overview) → 
    references/capital_risk_and_regulatory_overview.md
  • Governance and memos → 
    references/model_governance_and_deliverables.md
  • 范围、原则、职业道德 → 
    references/actuary_scope_and_principles.md
  • 定价与产品 → 
    references/pricing_and_product_design.md
  • 准备金与三角表 → 
    references/reserving_and_loss_development.md
  • 假设与经验研究 → 
    references/assumptions_experience_studies.md
  • 资本与监管（概述） → 
    references/capital_risk_and_regulatory_overview.md
  • 治理与备忘录 → 
    references/model_governance_and_deliverables.md