pre-mortem-kill-criteria

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Original

English

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Translation

Chinese

Pre-Mortems with Kill Criteria

带有终止标准的预验尸

Overview

概述

An enhancement to the standard pre-mortem that moves beyond simply imagining failure to establishing pre-committed actions based on specific negative signals.

Core principle: Thinking about failure isn't enough; you must commit to actions BEFORE you see the signals.

对标准预验尸方法的改进，不再仅仅是设想失败，而是基于特定负面信号制定预先承诺的行动方案。

核心原则： 只考虑失败是不够的；必须在出现信号前就承诺好应对行动。

The Process

实施流程

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  1. MENTAL TIME TRAVEL                                          │
│     Fast forward: Imagine the project has FAILED                │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  2. SIGNAL IDENTIFICATION                                       │
│     "What early clues indicated the failure?"                   │
│     List specific, observable signals                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  3. DEFINE KILL CRITERIA                                        │
│     Convert clues into measurable thresholds                    │
│     Example: "CPA > $50" or "Customer won't demo"               │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  4. PRE-COMMITMENT                                              │
│     Establish rule: "If [Criteria] occurs, we [Kill/Pivot]"     │
│     Write it down and share with team                           │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  5. ACTIVE MONITORING                                           │
│     Scan for criteria during execution                          │
│     Act immediately when triggered                              │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

┌─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┐
│  1. 心理时间穿越                                                │
│     快进：设想项目已经失败                                      │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  2. 信号识别                                                   │
│     “哪些早期迹象预示了失败？”                                  │
│     列出具体的、可观察到的信号                                   │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  3. 定义终止标准                                                │
│     将迹象转化为可衡量的阈值                                    │
│     示例：“CPA > 50美元”或“客户不愿参与演示”                    │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  4. 预先承诺                                                    │
│     制定规则：“如果[标准]出现，我们就[终止/转向]”                │
│     记录下来并与团队共享                                        │
├─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┤
│  5. 主动监控                                                    │
│     在执行过程中持续监控标准是否达成                            │
│     一旦触发立即采取行动                                        │
└─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────┘

Key Principles

核心原则

Principle	Description
Pre-commit	Lock in actions before rationalization kicks in
Signal focus	Identify correlates of failure, not just the failure itself
Prospective waste	Think about future waste, not sunk cost
Automatic triggers	When criteria hit, action is mandatory

原则	描述
预先承诺	在合理化借口出现前就锁定行动方案
聚焦信号	识别与失败相关的关联因素，而非仅仅关注失败本身
前瞻性浪费考量	着眼于未来可能产生的浪费，而非已投入的沉没成本
自动触发机制	一旦达到标准，必须采取行动

Common Mistakes

常见误区

Doing a pre-mortem but not changing the plan
Identifying risks without setting a specific stop trigger
Rationalizing signals when they appear ("it's different this time")

Source: Annie Duke (First Round Capital, WSOP Champion) via Lenny's Podcast

开展了预验尸但未调整计划
识别了风险但未设定具体的停止触发条件
当信号出现时找借口合理化（"这次情况不同"）

来源：Annie Duke（First Round Capital，WSOP冠军），出自Lenny播客