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min-experiment

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Original

English
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Translation

Chinese
Some decisions get no clearer on paper; the only information left is reality's feedback. Trade the argument for a test: find the assumption the decision hangs on and design the minimum experiment that could falsify it — cheap, reversible, finished inside the cycle — so the user takes a first step tomorrow instead of a decision today.
Write in the language the user writes in.
有些决策在纸上讨论得再清楚也没用，唯一能获取的信息来自现实的反馈。别再争论，转而进行测试：找出决策所依赖的假设，设计一个最小化实验来证伪它——成本低廉、可逆转、在设定周期内完成——这样用户明天就能迈出第一步，而非现在就仓促做决定。
请使用用户使用的语言进行撰写。

1. Pin the decision and the cycle

1. 明确决策与周期

If the argument names no choice or idea, ask one question for it and stop. Take the cycle from the user; when they give none, it is 7 days.
State the decision in one sentence: the option under consideration and what taking it commits the user to.
Done when the option is stated in one sentence and the cycle is a fixed number of days.
如果讨论中没有明确的选项或想法，只需询问一个相关问题即可停止。周期由用户指定；若用户未给出，则默认7天。
用一句话陈述决策：即正在考虑的选项，以及选择该选项需要用户做出的承诺。
完成标志：选项用一句话表述，周期为固定天数。

2. Surface the three assumptions

2. 梳理三大核心假设

List the three assumptions behind the decision that most need verifying — the load-bearing claims that must hold for the decision to be right, which the user is treating as fact without evidence in hand.
A lazy list holds generic worries (I might not have time). Write each assumption as a claim reality can falsify: customers in segment X will pay Y for this, not there is demand. An assumption that a search, a file, or a quick calculation can settle, settle now (
WebSearch
/
WebFetch
, the user's own files): report the answer and take the next assumption in its place.
Done when three assumptions are listed, each a falsifiable claim, each unsettled by anything you could look up, and each able to move the conclusion if false.
列出决策背后最需验证的三个假设——这些是支撑决策成立的关键论断，用户当前正将其视为既定事实，但并无实际证据支持。
敷衍的列表只会包含泛泛的担忧（比如“我可能没时间”）。每个假设都应写成可被现实证伪的具体论断：例如“X细分领域的客户愿意为该产品支付Y费用”，而非“存在需求”。如果某个假设可通过搜索、查阅文件或快速计算得到答案，立即解决（使用
WebSearch
/
WebFetch
或用户自身文件）：报告结果，并用下一个假设替代它。
完成标志：列出三个假设，每个都是可证伪的具体论断，均无法通过现有查询手段解决，且任一假设不成立都会改变最终结论。

3. Pick the decisive one

3. 选定关键假设

Select the assumption most likely to change the final conclusion. This is a different question from "most uncertain" or "easiest to test": ask of each, if this turned out false, would the user still take the option? The one where the answer changes most is the one to test.
Done when one assumption is chosen and its weight reads as a conditional: if it holds, do A; if it fails, do B.
选出最有可能改变最终结论的假设。这与“最不确定”或“最易测试”是不同的问题：对每个假设提问，如果该假设不成立，用户仍会选择该选项吗？ 答案变化最大的那个假设就是需要测试的对象。
完成标志：选定一个假设，并明确其影响的条件关系：若假设成立，则执行A；若不成立，则执行B。

4. Design the minimum experiment

4. 设计最小化实验

Around that one assumption, design the smallest action that could falsify it. A lazy design is a pilot of the whole idea — build the product, run the programme, move the family. Strip to the cheapest probe that yields the signal: a landing page and an ad before a product, five conversations before a survey, one week of living the change before committing to it.
Check three constraints separately:
  • Low-cost — the spend in hours and money is small enough that a stop result costs nothing the user will regret.
  • Reversible — on the last day the user can walk it back: nothing announced, signed, quit, or spent that cannot be recovered.
  • Within the cycle — the result is in hand by the cycle's end. When the true signal takes longer, test a leading indicator that arrives in time and say what it stands in for.
Write down what to do, concrete enough to hand to someone else, and the time and resources it takes: hours per day, money, people, tools.
Done when the experiment targets the chosen assumption, passes all three constraints, and its actions and costs are written as specifics rather than categories.
围绕选定的假设，设计能证伪它的最小行动。敷衍的设计是对整个想法进行试点——比如开发产品、运行项目、举家搬迁。要精简到最廉价的探测手段以获取有效信号：比如先做着陆页和广告再开发产品，先进行五次用户对话再做调研，先体验一周变化再做出承诺。
分别检查三个约束条件：
  • 低成本——投入的时间和资金足够少，即使实验终止，用户也不会有遗憾的损失。
  • 可逆转——在周期最后一天，用户可以完全撤回：没有不可撤销的公告、签约、离职或支出。
  • 在周期内完成——在周期结束前能得到结果。若真实信号需要更长时间，则测试一个能及时获取的领先指标，并说明该指标代表的含义。
写下具体行动步骤，详细到可以直接交给他人执行，同时注明所需的时间和资源：每日耗时、资金、人员、工具。
完成标志：实验针对选定的假设，满足所有三个约束条件，且行动步骤和成本均为具体细节而非笼统分类。

5. Fix the signals before it runs

5. 预先设定信号指标

Name the metrics to observe and how each is captured during the cycle. Then set the two thresholds — the result that supports continuing, and the result that says stop — as observable outcomes with a number wherever a number exists, so the user reads the outcome against a line drawn in advance rather than arguing it afterwards.
Where a result can land between the two, name that case and give it its own next step.
Last, state what the user will know once the experiment ends that they cannot know now — information that more thinking could not have produced.
Done when the metrics, the continue threshold, the stop threshold, and the new information are each written down, the thresholds carry a number wherever one exists, and every plausible result maps to continue, stop, or a named middle case.
明确实验周期内需要观测的指标及其收集方式。然后设定两个阈值——支持继续推进的结果，以及需要停止的结果——将其量化为可观测的结果（只要能量化就给出具体数值），这样用户就能提前对照预设标准判断结果，而非事后争论。
若结果可能介于两个阈值之间，需明确这种情况，并给出相应的下一步行动。
最后，说明实验结束后用户将获得哪些当前无法知晓的信息——这些信息是单纯思考无法得到的。
完成标志：明确写下指标、继续阈值、停止阈值和新增信息，阈值尽可能量化，且所有可能的结果都对应继续、停止或明确的中间情况。

6. Name tomorrow's first action, then deliver

6. 指定明天的首个行动，然后交付成果

The first action is the first step of the experiment itself, small enough to finish tomorrow with what the user already has and without waiting on anyone: send the message, book the room, publish the page. Preparation (think about which customers to call) is a plan, and the user already has one.
Deliver, in this order:
  • Assumptions — the three, each as a falsifiable claim, with why each needs verifying.
  • Decisive assumption — the one selected, and the conditional showing how it changes the conclusion.
  • What to do — the experiment's concrete steps.
  • Time and resources — hours, money, people, tools.
  • Metrics — what to observe and how it is captured.
  • Continue signal — the result that supports going ahead.
  • Stop signal — the result that says stop.
  • New information — what the user will know at the end that they cannot know now.
  • First action — the one thing to start tomorrow.
Done when all nine items are delivered in this order and the first action is one the user can complete tomorrow.
首个行动是实验的第一步，要足够小，用户明天就能利用现有资源完成，无需等待他人：比如发送消息、预订会议室、发布页面。准备工作（比如“思考要联系哪些客户”）只是计划，用户已经有计划了。
按以下顺序交付成果：
  • 假设——三个可证伪的具体论断，以及每个假设需要验证的原因。
  • 关键假设——选定的假设，以及说明其如何改变结论的条件关系。
  • 行动步骤——实验的具体操作步骤。
  • 时间与资源——耗时、资金、人员、工具。
  • 指标——需要观测的内容及其收集方式。
  • 继续信号——支持推进的结果标准。
  • 停止信号——需要停止的结果标准。
  • 新增信息——实验结束后用户将获得的当前未知信息。
  • 首个行动——明天要开始的第一件事。
完成标志：按上述顺序交付所有九项内容，且首个行动是用户明天可完成的事项。